Essential Research: 58-42

The latest weekly Essential Research survey (which gets its own thread in Newspoll off-weeks when there’s no Galaxy poll on the Sunday) has Labor recovering from an unheralded dip over the past fortnight, its two-party lead increasing from 56-44 to 58-42. Also featured are questions on leadership preference, which find Julia Gillard favoured over Malcolm Turnbull 39 per cent to 34 per cent and Kevin Rudd favoured over Gillard 63 per cent to 14 per cent, and expectations regarding the economy.

UPDATE (2/12/08): Today’s Courier-Mail provides further figures from yesterday’s Galaxy poll of 800 voters in Queensland, showing 38 per cent would like to go back to John Howard and Peter Costello, against 54 per cent preferring Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

706 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  1. HSO

    That article shows one facet of what is so wrong about the internet filter. No-one has any problems with banning illegal sites, but how do you define illegal? Sites that promote self-harm are banned. Anorexia is self-harm, on an unconscious level at least. So sites that promote anorexia can be banned. The decision to ban them under Conroy’s plan would be secret. No disclosure, no consultation and no input from any experts in the field would be needed. The list of sites banned is not published so we would be unaware that Conroy, or whoever, has even filtered them out let alone discuss the policy.

    It’s Big Brother who knows best. Ignorance is Strength. Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia.

  2. Nope, here in SA the Coward Years is about to start. Will the remote or alcohol poisoning win?

    The remote by a hair!

    do I want to hear that monotonous dead mechanical voice again/

    NO I DON’T!!!!

  4. [“So she was given the Shadow Treasurer’s job why?”

    As deputy leader of the party, she had the right to choose.]

    It was part of the deal to get her to swap her vote from Nelson to MT. Being Deputy had nothing to do with it, just a convenient excuse. If MT doesn’t dump her over the summer, it will be a good indication that he doesn’t have overwhelming support in the party.

  5. The poll has made news.com.au:
    [A NEW poll shows Malcolm Turnbull would be thoroughly beaten by both Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard if he ran against either of them in an election.
    The weekly poll from Essential Media Communications shows the coalition opposition continues to lag well behind Mr Rudd as he enters his second year in office.

    Asked who would make the better prime minister, 39 per cent of respondents said Ms Gillard, with only 34 per cent backing Mr Turnbull. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24735832-29277,00.html

  6. thanks for the pointer Frank, i ‘ve just checked the TV book, dunno if its the senate or the reps though, i’ll keep my fingers crossed, i’m going to settle down to the Howard years now — all the time with visions of BB wrecking his lounge and his dog hiding from him lol.

  10. #31 –

    [According to a report I read, there were 60 police on duty at the railway station when the “two” gunmen attacked.]

    But what were they doing? Sipping Bombay tea?

  13. Oz @ 47, thanks much 🙂 …..

    Harry, there are two things that go into my schedule/day timer book other than appointments that are pertinent to one or more family members. Scheduled sitting days for parliament aka “QT” and all test and one day cricket matches 😀 …..

  14. [But what were they doing? Sipping Bombay tea?]

    Conveniently looking the other way I understand.

    The poor old Commando’s get a bit pf a bagging for sitting around for 36 hours or so before they slowly and O so cautiously moved in.

    Probably hoping the terrorists might die of thirst or hunger before they had to face them.

    The article is on Al Jusira. Can’t remember the spelling.

  17. One more thing…

    I wonder if the mesma’s cat claw today is going to turn out like lathams handshake ?

    Guess we can live in hope. Somethings going to give. old mesmas going to blow up.

    Tomorrows papers will be interesting to watch

  18. LOL! I had no idea Peter Cosgrove was such an expert on the epistemology of images!

    THE HOWARD YEARS: SAME OLD SHIT, DIFFERENT ORDER

    The best part about the Howard years is the ending.

  20. Just checked Peter Reith’s Wiki page*, where there is no mention of the Children Overboard affair. This despite the fact that, in an interview with Virginia Trioli on Oct 10, 2001, Reith committed one of the most colossal porkies in Australian political history.

    A sample …

    VT: Mr Reith, there’s nothing in this photo that indicates these people either jumped or were thrown?

    PR: Now, the first thing to say is there were children in the water. Now, we have a number of people, obviously RAN people who were there who reported the children were thrown into the water. Now, you may want to question the veracity of reports of the Royal Australian Navy. I don’t and I didn’t either but I have subsequently been told that they have also got film. That film is apparently on HMAS ADELAIDE. I have not seen it myself and apparently the quality of it is not very good, and it’s infra-red or something but I am told that someone has looked at it and it is an absolute fact, children were thrown into the water. So do you still question it? … The fact of the matter is, this did happen and it was part of a clear intended response by those on the boat.

    “An absolute fact” …

    * If ever proof was needed that I have no life!

  21. That was tough. I think I regret watching that one. I remember as soon as Latham’s mate (forgot his name) announced that “Mark Latham has been elected leader of the labor party” I thought, Howard would be thanking his lucky stars again, and he did.

  24. #61
    Yes, Reith was bad over the waterfront and he wasn’t any better tonight. I remember that he first won Flinders in a byelection but lost it in the federal election that followed before he even got to take his seat in parliament. It would have been far more appropriate if his political career had ended right there.

    On going to war in Iraq, I recall very well that Howard had prepared the country for it for months prior to the cabinet decision. All his rhetoric, such as defending the intelligence and insisting till he was blue in the face in parliament that WMD did exist, had made it very obvious that he would do George Bush’s bidding. Maybe an official decision hadn’t been made but it had certainly been telegraphed for so long that it would have been a shock if cabinet decided against it. Whatever he and the ministers say about it I think they knew in their hearts that the meeting was merely a rubber stamp.

    I thought President Truman said that if you want a friend in Washington then get a dog, but Howard gave the impression to Bush that it’s an Australian expression (with the place changed, and “friend” changed to “mate” of course).

  25. Way off topic but if you can drag yourselves away from the Howard Years and look at the sky, the three brightest objects are together tonight; Jupiter, Venus and a crescent moon. It won’t happen again for fifty years so it’s worth showing the kids. 😀

  27. Diogenes @ 51. Agree, extremely and very bad. You could sign the Get Up petition. Just google Get Up.
    juliem, you’re as sad a politico-cricket tragic as am I. Which is weird, when you think about it, because so was Howard, or perhaps the Howard pair more particularly.
    Has anyone had a squizz at the Smiley face in the sky tonight? Looks more like a cow face to me. So it can’t be an omen relating to Julie Bishop, can it?

  28. I’m just watching the bit of the Howard Years about THAT line “We will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances under which they come”, where he implies that he came up with the line on the spur of the moment.

    But didn’t we hear almost exactly that line in episode one, in the maiden speech of a certain ex-Liberal?

    Is this evidence earlier plagiarism amongst the libs? No wonder they don’t have any trouble with Julie doing it.

    And it explains why JWH took so long to denounce that ex-liberal. He was absorbing her message.

  29. [ It won’t happen again for fifty years so it’s worth showing the kids.]

    We can only hope its a sign that we will not see the fibs back in that time frame either.

    Either way many of little johnnies mates have gone along with him and most will never put their butts on the right hand side of the speaker ever again.

  30. I can’t bear to watch “The Howard expletive deleted Years”. It was the longest 11 & a half years of my life. The Smiley face in the sky is preferable or watching the Shadow Minister for Julie Bishop unsuccessfully battle the doormat. Gawd, that cat is stupid.

  31. Harry @ 77, cricket and parliamentary politics is infinitely more entertaining than the parallels in the US (baseball and the HOR) ……. Now I will be watching QT the rest of this week and then a countdown to Perth for the first SA test …..

    night 🙂

  32. FINNS

    #29
    “Amigo Ronnie,
    The person who took this famous photo:

    said the gunmen were shooting at the railway station for about 45mins before any police or military arrived. The “SAS” of India took 9 hours to reach Mumbai…then blamed Pakistan…”

    I Remember Indian cricket team gall of actualy blaming our cricketer ‘Roy’ for there bowler Harbajan Singh racially calling our cricketer Roy a ‘monkey’ Is India also a country with a racial caste system too India blames everyone but themselves Not th way to learn from mistakes…or take responsibility

    To ignore th CIA etc intell is bad , but not to hav th will to thereafter fight is always fatal So therefore they will not also hav th will for future prevention , nor to look at th terrorism seeds of discontent Perhaps Chinese need to take up cricket pretty quick

  33. yeah, Howard years much the same as last wo: Costello a loser, Reith a liar with convenient dementia, selecting advice they want, rejecting others, then saying ” we received advice”. Boring!

  34. so Turnbull is on 14% 2PP. Now that he is getting Nelson’s numbers, will HE be put under the leadership spotlight?? I wouldnt bet on it

  36. [How close was the leadership ballot again? Can Turnbull afford to drop Bishop?]

    45-41

    Dropping her might actually give him more support. You never know with these nutty Libs.

  37. “The list of sites banned is not published so we would be unaware that Conroy, or whoever, has even filtered them out let alone discuss the policy.
    It’s Big Brother who knows best.”

    Th last sentence is reely th unfettered Libertarian argument Let everyone see whatever they want in there houses

    Bit about banned sites is fluff Of course they will be secret to make it harder for th culpritts , geez

    As to governance and sensible overview as to what should be banned , thats a separate issue , no red herrings

    Guys who hav solely technical reservations …alone… I can appreciate there viewpoint

  38. So people here ar suggesting Turnbull will commit his own politcal suicide by ‘sacking’ his Treasurer….that would be enough if her power base was one shadow cabinet vote
    (and tink her consevative power base is stronger than that anyway)

    All politicans can count numberz , if nothing else Best Turnbull can hope for is a ‘reshuffle’ next year , but only if she is willing as it would self ends her ‘career’ very top 4 jobs chanses

  41. Ron

    We’re letting Conroy decide exactly what he wants to ban. The free speech argument is important. To some of these people their website, which may be quite legal, could be their lifeline to the rest of the world or people like them. It could be their PB. Imagine a world where you could wake up and find PB filtered because Conroy’s stupid program triggered it as a rampant racist, sexist pro-terrorism site due to the words that crop up here. So we get a dimwit like Conroy being the controller of free speech in Australia.

    Big Brother knows best.

  42. Well Ronster will replyy for Uncle Ron

    If you look at 2nd last para , thats addresed NO legislation at all reely would pass th Senate without that requirement , assumiing th Greens , Dr X and Fielding could actualy agree Queston therefore is to support it with that governance

    Whats hoped for is Libs support it , so likely crazy ideas for extra ridiculous exemptions of Dr X and fielding lay in senate’s dustbins

  43. I really wish Ronster would make his posts easier to comprehend… it always feels like trying to dissect a 5 year old’s scrawlings

  44. The cracks are starting to widen quickly now.

    [A NSW Liberal MP will defy his leader’s direction not to stand in the way of Labor’s bill to kill Work Choices.]

    [But Liberal backbencher Alby Schultz says he will vote against the bill in its initial form, and will not support the bill when it returns from the Senate unless it addresses his concerns.]

    Aparently he doesn’t want employers to be held accountable to the laws of the land. ie Keep union officials out of workplaces so they can’t inspect wage records and employment conditions and ensure that people aren’t being ripped off or working in dangerous and hazardous conditions.

    [Mr Schultz said his main concern about the bill was its green light for unions to enter workplaces and inspect non-union employees’ wage records.

    “I find it totally reprehensible that, after the introduction of this bill, a union will have the right to enter a workplace and demand, among other things, the production of records pertaining to the wages of non-union members, even in workplaces where the employer and employees have previously agreed that they don’t want unions,” he said.]

    http://livenews.com.au/Articles/2008/12/01/Liberal_MP_defies_Turnbull_on_IR_bill

  45. “I really wish Ronster would make his posts easier to comprehend”

    For many here comprehension is th least of there problems Capacity to objectively think heads th list

  47. [For many here comprehension is th least of there problems Capacity to objectively think heads th list]

    Precisely, so it would be nice if it was easier to read so there are fewer problems to deal with 😉

  49. “so there are fewer problemS to deal with ”

    most who can not comprehend can not even deal with a single problem , let alone multi layered ones It all comes back to objective capacity to think and reason I’m here to educate th dears

  50. Whatever happened to that Liberal was making a big fuss about creating another rural based splinter party?

    It was an incredibly stupid idea which is why I’m surprised he dropped it.

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