Presidential election minus two days

Or possibly one day, depending on what time zone you’re in. This will in any case be the final thread for presidential fat-chewing purposes prior to the live blogging of the count, which will begin an hour or two before the first states close their polls. Firstly we have the latest polling aggregate figures, in which McCain has (at the time of writing) taken the lead in Indiana and Missouri and narrowed the gap to various degrees in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania, while losing ground in Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Washington 56.5 39.4 3322 11
Maine 56.6 40.3 2185 4
Minnesota 56.1 41.7 3270 10
Michigan 56.4 42.1 3232 17
New Mexico 57.1 43.0 3305 5
New Hampshire 55.0 41.7 3900 4
Iowa 54.2 41.4 3052 7
Wisconsin 53.4 42.1 3003 10
Colorado 54.9 44.5 3248 9
Pennsylvania 53.1 43.1 5479 21
Nevada 51.7 45.2 3168 5
Virginia 52.0 45.6 3382 13
Ohio 50.6 46.1 6490 20
Florida 50.0 46.6 5381 27
North Dakota 47.7 45.7 1706 3
Montana 48.7 47.4 3934 3
Missouri 49.9 48.6 3217 11
North Carolina 50.1 49.1 5582 15
Indiana 48.6 48.7 3834 11
Georgia 47.9 49.9 3248 15
West Virginia 44.0 54.1 3328 5
Others – – – 175 137
RCP/Total 52.0 44.2 – 370 168

Not sure how illuminating this is, but the following map shows the swing in each state as indicated by Electoral-Vote’s poll averages. White indicates either no change from 2004 or a swing to the Republicans, the latter only applying to Massachusetts where John Kerry presumably garnered a handsome home-state vote. The deepest shade of blue indicates a swing of over 20 per cent. Swing is measured by comparing the vote gap between Republican and Democrats.

This chart indicates how polling in various states has shifted since October 13, as measured by my own polling aggregates. John McCain’s furious campaigning in Pennsylvania has yielded a 7.7 per cent narrowing, which while highly impressive is still nowhere near enough. He has also gained ground in Florida (Obama’s lead is down 4.3 per cent to 3.1 per cent), North Carolina (4.1 per cent to 0.5 per cent), Virginia (3.5 per cent to 5.6 per cent) and Missouri (from 2.3 per cent behind to 0.7 per cent ahead). Barack Obama has extended his lead in New Mexico (up 5.7 per cent to 12.8 per cent), Washington (up 3.8 per cent to 15.7 per cent) and Minnesota (up 3.1 per cent to 9.9 per cent). Ignore Maine, where there have only been a few polls.

Finally, many thanks to reader Viggo Pedersen for compiling this list of poll closing times in Australian Eastern Daylight Time.

State Close
AEDT 		Electoral
Votes 		Cumulative
EV
Vermont 1100 3
Kentucky 1100 8
South Carolina 1100 8
Indiana 1100 11
Virginia 1100 13
Georgia 1100 15 58
West Virginia 1130 5
Ohio 1130 20 83
Delaware 1200 3
District Of Columbia 1200 3
Maine 1200 4
New Hampshire 1200 4
Mississippi 1200 6
Connecticut 1200 7
Oklahoma 1200 7
Alabama 1200 9
Maryland 1200 10
Missouri 1200 11
Tennessee 1200 11
Massachusetts 1200 12
New Jersey 1200 15
Illinois 1200 21
Pennsylvania 1200 21
Florida 1200 27 254
Arkansas 1230 6
North Carolina 1230 15 275
South Dakota 1300 3
Wyoming 1300 3
Rhode Island 1300 4
Nebraska 1300 5
New Mexico 1300 5
Kansas 1300 6
Colorado 1300 9
Louisiana 1300 9
Arizona 1300 10
Minnesota 1300 10
Wisconsin 1300 10
Michigan 1300 17
New York 1300 31
Texas 1300 34 431
Montana 1400 3
Nevada 1400 5
Utah 1400 5
Iowa 1400 7 451
North Dakota 1500 3
Hawaii 1500 4
Idaho 1500 4
Oregon 1500 7
Washington 1500 11
California 1500 55 535
Alaska 1700 3 538

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

587 comments on “Presidential election minus two days”

Comments Page 9 of 12
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  1. Well, I reckon it is all over.

    The most plausible path I can see to a McCain win is that he wins Pennsylvania (amongst other things). I just can’t see that happening.

    Landslide? Obama will get an ECV count somewhere in the mid-300s and win by 5-7% points on the popular vote. It’s semantics whether you want to call that a landslide or not.

  4. Be interesting to note how many times McCain and Palin lied during the campaign. The last being that there is a narrowing and the momentum is with them. Clearly false. I think even for Repugs they have broken some sort of record for lying this campaign

  5. Well it depends on what you count as ‘lies’. For instance some ardent Liberal supporters still claim that John Howard never lied… I know!

  6. ShowsOn – to give some context, I used to do some interesting things for the ANC in the past (buying weapons, etc – don’t want to go into details, but a sense of how committed I was to the cause)… and I’ll be voting for the DA in the next election – which is the equivalent of me voting for Reagan in ’80 or Fraser in ’75… that’s how disappointing the ANC is to me here.

    The DA is nowhere near broad-based enough to win an election – has zero black support (or near enough to), and therefore cannot win outside of the Cape and possibly KwaZulu Natal (where enough whites, coloureds & Indians can potentially make the numbers)… we need a centre (dare I say centre-right… in the Aussie more than the US sense) black-oriented party here, and even that will take a generation to have a chance. The breakaway group isn’t especially popular with the masses here, and will probably have to merge with the DA eventually – a good thing in the long term, but they will be seen as sellouts in the short term, most likely. In the meantime, when the Zuma populists take control of the ANC then the fear is that any remaining semblance of fiscal competence goes out the window (not that there is a whole lot left now, though maybe that’s a bit unfair, but I can’t stand the corruption and self-enrichment tolerated at the expense of all the people the ANC were supposed to be fighting for all the way along).

  7. Andrew,

    For the future, it would be far more interseting to know how many time Obama and Biden lied during the campaign. I’m sure we will find out!

  8. Andrew, there is clearly a slight narrowing. MO, IN, NC, which looked to be moving to Obama a week or so ago, are now narrowly McCain. FL has clearly drifted back to McCain a bit. So has PA. It’s a bit of stretch to call campaign trail optimism a “lie.” What’s he supposed to say: “I’m doomed, don’t bother voting”?

  11. Andrew,

    I sort of agree about the narrowing but William’s graph is interesting.

    It shows a patchwork of some States trending to Obama and some to McCain. The ones trending to McCain tend to be the ones we’ve been talking about for the past couple of months (ie since before when the graph starts).

    I don’t think McCain can win but I wouldn’t be amazed if there’s a narrowing of sorts. Will be too little too late though (sounds vaguely familiar …)

  13. Yeah I wouldn’t want to be in your shoes EF. The realisation that political change is almost unthinkable must be tough. Ditto to those in Singapore, Alberta, Canada etc. etc.

  14. What chance Bloomberg running as an Independent in 2012 if Obama & the Dems screw things up (or, more likely than this, that the economy is still a basket case) and the Repub base puts up Huckabee or Palin!

  15. [and I’ll be voting for the DA in the next election – which is the equivalent of me voting for Reagan in ‘80 or Fraser in ‘75… that’s how disappointing the ANC is to me here.]
    But is the DA a centre right party? Or is it a centrist party that the ANC paints as right wing?

  17. Sorry Oz! LTEP, that’s why pollbludger is a wonderful tonic for me… the blinds are pulled down locally and I get my rocks off following Oz, the US and Britain coming up (wouldn’t want to be in Labor’s shoes there)

  20. [What chance Bloomberg running as an Independent in 2012 if Obama & the Dems screw things up]

    It’s weird, you’d think successive failures by parties on both sides in the US would lead to trends towards to more extreme rights and lefts, or at least away from the Democrats and Republicans but it never happened.

    One day the Democratic-Republican will live again.

  21. [McCain now $13.50 on Betfair. Obama $1.07.]

    Look what happened to Septimus!

    [Hillary would’ve been at 19 cents by now.]

    And Edwards at 3 cents.

  23. ShowsOn – feel bad hijacking the conv away from the US – but, the DA’s problem is that in the SA context its a white-dominated party whose platform is geared predominantly to white issues (esp crime). Their politics (something analogous to Aussie Liberal) would be a massive improvement, but the racial context makes it unsellable; no black leadership or membership drive + no realistic plan to tackle the past wrongs in an active sense apart from leaving it to general trickle down free market… whilst this might be better than active affirmative action (very debatable), it will get absolutely nowhere with African voters here as they are seen as apartheid amnesiacs.

  25. Gary Bruce

    #251

    You were right on your first point re my #248 and then proceeded to make an loose allegation

    Re th first point i said “but then you hav not been alone on this Site” (meaning some obama supporters , othwerwise i would hav said All supporters obviouley) ) subsequently with this thought of “some” Obama suporters in mind I said ‘this sites Obama supporters” You hav seized on th second comment as if it meant all Well in context I’d suggest you ar perhaps not right but do acknowladge i could/should hav said “some” (which was in my mind) Such unintended lingo looseness irrespective I retract , but lets not forget th substance of my #248 , decency standards by some Obama suporters regarding Sarah Palin hav been appaling & if posters do not tink this has occured then there standards ar diferent to mine

    Your second point about throwing mud is I tink looses and not substantiated except by misunderstanding You hav assumed what I’ve said after probabley having heard th SAME subject on right’ Media rather than what i’ve actually said , and I’ve found many Obama blogers do this mistake Your example is your reference to “his oiliness” so whats your problem with this I’ve called him a snake oil salesman (with words) of which “his oiliness’ (with words) is an abbriviation It is acurate not mud but then you may not be interested in proof of that

    Take one example , th Pastor “denials” by Obama Well from th 25th february to 29th April from direct public quotes , Obama gave EIGHT diferent versions of his relationship with Pastar Wright…..starting off sugar coating it as Trinity Church was not reely a controversial Church or Pastor , however as credible Media published more facts about how whaco Wright & his Church was then then Obama fessed up tit bits of increasing acknowledgemnt of Wrights whaco views …..then culminating in Obama’s ‘Gettysburg’ Philly speech saying some Pastor Wright sermons were definitely over th top but he “privately”disagreed with them …and a lot of nasty Pastor wright sermon quotes in th credible Press/Youtube Obama ‘somehow’ never heard whilst he sat in th Church …. but Wright was quote “his Uncle his Friend his Mentor” and quote “he would not disown him” (and quote “any more than my white grand mother”) , ….but then more info came out showing up this whaco Pastor & Church so Obama fessed up some stronger criticism of th Pastor …and finaly of his Uncle his Friend his Mentor his 20 year Church Obama at th end of April finaly publicly DID “disown” th Pastor , did fully condemn publicly and Obama did leave th Church ….so ‘his oiliness” (with words) absolutely is he Obama , and a master & far better than your average politcan Some politcans ar abaolute l.ars , Obama is oiliness with words hence my snake oil salesman reference

    Now this to me demonstrated 1/ poor judgement , 2/ query on his convictions solidity of 20 years attndanse (as th Trinity church politcaly is influential) and 3/ willingness to ‘associate’ to climb….and 4/ then followed by Obama’s oiliness with words …….Obama’s actual quotes of 8 diferent Pastor defenses over 8 weeks ar reel reality , Obama’s 20 years with th pastor is reel reality and fact that th Pastor is a whaco is reel reality (even Obama finaly saw that)

    What I hav not done is accuse Obama of being a whaco or of agreeing with Pastor Wrights whaco views Only th ‘right’ were false enough to make that ridaculous innuendo

    Furthermore th above listed SAME FOUR ‘character’ criticisms ( judgement , convictions & willingness and th oiliness with words , I also highlited regarding Ayers and Rezko (after I listed these guys activities for context) But again i never accused Obama of agreeing with those guys activities or being a terorist or a corrupt either Only th idiot false “right” Republicons did that which WAS ‘mud’ …although some blogers here hav tried to falsely insinuuate I was doing so as well (probably because th nature of those guys activities was nastily unpleasant making posters alittle uncomfortable but that was not my issue , th 4 ‘character’ defect issues were what I posted (admittedly th first of those , judgement , has been mitigated by his excellent campaign performance but POTUS politcal decisions may or may not be different)

    Perhaps you misunderstood my points being made but await your comments I will say that most Obama suporters find any criticism of obama dificult to take probabley because 99% of Obama criticism is from th ‘right” & often but not always false ….I as a non Obama suporter ‘informal’ come from th ‘left’ (refer my other Thread #171 Obama ‘left’ policy criticisms) which were absolutely decisive in my non suport , (rather than th abov ‘character’ defects) and I hav a multitude of policy arguments suporting my views none of which ar mud , but if posters think that then so beit As a firm Labor person I’m very used to vigarously defending Labor principals against th non “true believers” who hav said muchy much worse without insulting me at all But I do wish Obama to be an outstanding Leader notwithstanding my reservations as reality is he is now th to be elacted man

  28. Adam

    I don’t think you could say there has been a narrowing in this election. There certainly hasn’t been nationally. Given that there are 50 states, a few would have to drift towards McCain and a similar number would drift to Obama. There did seem to a narrowing in half, but the other half didn’t.

    FL, NC, VA, OH, PA did.

    MO, CO, NV, NH didn’t.

  29. No-one will take the DA seriously as an opposition party until it has a black leader. It’s absurd to expect the black mases in SA to vote for a white president given the country’s history. It would be an admission that they can’t govern themselves. SA Jews like Leon and Zille have a distinguished record of opposing apartheid, but they can’t expect the black masses to see them as anything but whites.

  30. My LAST SA comment unless we’re all happy to kill some time until the US action starts:

    the breakaway faction would have been smarter to have run under the ANC banner in the next election, and only then split away and joined forces with the DA. Might prevent the 2/3 that way and give them a few years before risking self-annhialation at the polls, which is what I expect for them in 2009. Their move now shows greater integrity but probably not very politically clever… too many guys who might be tempted to join them won’t do so now because they enjoy being MPs too much!

  32. [but lets not forget th substance of my #248 , decency standards by some Obama suporters regarding Sarah Palin hav been appaling & if posters do not tink this has occured then there standards ar diferent to mine]
    Why do we have to take Palin seriously? She thinks the earth is less than 7000 years old. That is moronic, that is dumb, that is stupid. We don’t have to respect idiots, especially when they want to get into positions of world power.
    [but if posters think that then so beit As a firm Labor person I’m very used to vigarously defending Labor principals against th non “true believers” who hav said muchy much worse without insulting me]
    I’m a true believer too Ron, get used to it.
    [SA Jews like Leon and Zille have a distinguished record of opposing apartheid, but they can’t expect the black masses to see them as anything but whites.]
    So apartheid lives on in a new form. That’s just sad…

  37. [Moderate Republican Senators: Collins and Snowe of ME, Specter of PA, Smith of OR, Coleman of MN, Hagel of NE (who’s retiring). Hard to think of many others.]
    The moderates keep losing, like Lincoln Chaffee in 2004 who has endorsed Obama.

    I think the Democrats have learned a lesson, I think Obama has run on a more centrist and unifying campaign than either Kerry or Gore. The problem is, the Republicans keep losing their moderates in congress, so the nutcase wing is going to blame McCain’s loss on the fact he didn’t talk more about abortion and gay marriage.

  39. Adam

    EV-wise and as a proportional win in the battlegrounds, McCain has narrowed. Obama has actually increased his lead, marginally, over the last week nationally from the high sixes a week ago to the low sevens in the final polls. I think a lot of the reason for that was McCain’s change in campaign tactic away from smears to socialism. Whoever got him to attack on Ayers needs to be shot (I’m guessing it was Schmidt). The eternal question will be if Wright would have made any difference.

  41. [over the last week nationally from the high sixes a week ago to the low sevens in the final polls. ]

    So does this just mean he is getting even bigger leads in safe states like California and New York?

  42. [I am going to have a much needed laugh and watch ‘My Fellow Americans’ tonight. A classic political comedy.]
    Then watch Bullworth, it will give you nightmares.

  43. Yes, I think the point is that McCain has made gains in the States that count, whereas many of Obama’s gains seem to be in States he would win anyway.

    That is, if you think week-by-week analyses of State-level poll results are worth looking at.

  44. Can there now be any doubt that OB will win, and handsomely?… last I saw the Kid was getting within 98% chance of winning?… sheesh… if only HC had taken the primary… surly she would have got 98.5?

  48. It’ll be interesting to see how the markets re-act to the election result.

    Markets like certainty. I think a clear Obama victory will see the a healthy rally. A narrow victory will trigger a bit of a sell off and a McCain victory will see the market testing for new lows.

    New lows in many areas I suspect.

  49. The Repubs thought they were being very clever in Nixon’s day when they became the party of white southern racism: they thought it would give them a permanent national majority. The problem is that the moderate Repub strongholds – New England, NY, PA, the upper Midwest, the Pacific coast – increasingly won’t vote for Repubs of any kind because they don’t like the Gingrich-Lott-DeLay-Bush southern Repub aristocracy that now runs the party.

  50. Fox are talking about how Obama can win the popular vote by 4 or 5 million but still lose the election. “Who knows, Obama’s big lead in the national polling could be made up of California and Jersey.”

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