The first bi-monthly NSW state Newspoll since Nathan Rees replaced Morris Iemma as Premier shows Labor support plunging to new lows, down four points on both the primary vote (to a record low of 29 per cent) and two-party preferred (to 44 per cent). The Coalition primary vote is up two points to 42 per cent. For all that, Nathan Rees has established a surprising lead over Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell as preferred premier, of 35 per cent to 28 per cent. Rees’ debut satisfaction rating is 39 per cent against 26 per cent dissatisfied, compared with 41 per cent and 30 per cent for O’Farrell.
Oh Dear, I think the Liberal National Party restaurant argument fiasco just got worse.
[A BOOZY night out for Liberal National Party politicians in Cairns ended with a waiter chasing two MPs down the street after they took off without paying the bill.
A source at Fetta’s Greek Taverna has revealed his anger at the behaviour of Opposition MPs, saying some were rude and kept staff at the restaurant until after 1am while they partied.
The group, in Cairns for an historic sitting of State Parliament, spent hours dining and drinking at the Grafton St restaurant after the Wednesday, October 29, session.
The booze-up ended when the two remaining MPs ordered final drinks then left, still owing money.]
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24644885-952,00.html
#40
60/40 is a bit optimistic. 10/90 is more like it. I think people have decided the government has to go and not much can change that. We saw it with Howard last year; once voters made up their minds nothing he did could sway them back. Having a fresh face in Rees might stave off a landslide, but it’s hard to see people suddenly deciding they want yet another four years of Labor.
I think with O’Farrell, Chris Hartcher, Greg Smith, Mike Baird, Pru Goward, plus a few others there’s at least something approaching competence in the Opposition ranks. Not sure if they’d make a great government but they have enough to convince the public they won’t stuff it up too much. As for O’Farrell not releasing detailed policy, he’s no worse than any other small-target Opposition. The government is on its last legs and people are itching to boot them out- why would an opposition want to stick its head up now?
“I think with O’Farrell, Chris Hartcher, Greg Smith, Mike Baird, Pru Goward, plus a few others there’s at least something approaching competence in the Opposition ranks. Not sure if they’d make a great government but they have enough to convince the public they won’t stuff it up too much.”
That team is a dream team if you compare them with the we did stuffed it up too much, sorry about everything bunch of losers including Nathan (it was not my fault even through I work for the treasurer and was in parliament for most of it) Reese, Eric Roozendaal, Frank Sartor, Costa, the dancing in undies police minister and Campbell
Gusface I have to agree with MDMConnell’s post @ 52. I would add Gladys Berejiklian to the list of competent performers in the Opposition (I do not know what Socrates meant @ Post 41).
Also, I am not sure why you say the electors in the west are so significant to Labor’s re-election prospects. There are Western Sydney seats (although not seats like Camden), plus a few seats in the Illawarra and Newcastle areas, that may form the basis of a ‘cricket team’ for Labor in Opposition, and especially if the Greens pinch some inner city seats; however, a 29% primary vote for the ALP (if sustained) puts it in an extremely difficult position to find enough seats to form a government after the next election.
dovif,
Exactly, which is why I find the comments critical of the Opposition’s talent and direction a bit strange. In this situation, all the Opposition frontbenchers have to do is appear less hopeless than the current bunch, and people will give them a go.
[Exactly, which is why I find the comments critical of the Opposition’s talent and direction a bit strange. In this situation, all the Opposition frontbenchers have to do is appear less hopeless than the current bunch, and people will give them a go.]
Hardly anyone is doubting they’re going to win. Having “talent” to win an election is one thing, actually getting to State to any decent level of governance is another. Something the Libs have shown no indication that they’re willing to do/up for.
Oz @ 56 Your view, affected as it may be by a ‘born to rule mentality’, infers that only one side of politics (and it is not centre/right), is capable of providing ‘any decent level of governance’ in NSW. You may be welcome to enjoy your opinion as you see fit but (frankly) such opinion reflects a perspective without any substance.
[, infers that only one side of politics (and it is not centre/right), is capable of providing ‘any decent level of governance’ in NSW.]
I don’t think either “side” has the people, skills or policies required to give NSW a decent level of services.
[You may be welcome to enjoy your opinion as you see fit but (frankly) such opinion reflects a perspective without any substance.]
No, what’s without substance are the Coalition policies. You tell me what Barry O’Pharell has said he will do to clean up NSW’s planning laws, fix the hospitals, schools and public transport and curb alcohol related violence. He had the opportunity to outline his policy agenda to get NSW out of the “quagmire” he’s so quick to call it during his budget reply and he didn’t mention a single thing. He just carped on about the exact same rubbish as Rees – maintaining a Triple A credit rating.
The onus is on the Coalition to prove they have the policies to repair the state.
Oz (Post 58) I think MDMConnell answered that question earlier @ Post 52, second paragraph. We really do not know whether an Opposition’s policies have any substance until they are in government with the authority and resources to implement them. Unfortunately for the Liberal Party in NSW that opportunity to carry into effect their policies, does not arise until after 26 March 2011. In the meantime, you can leave it to the electors to determine which “side” has policies with a fair chance of providing ‘a decent level of governance’ in NSW.
[Unfortunately for the Liberal Party in NSW that opportunity to carry into effect their policies, does not arise until after 26 March 2011.]
You miss the point. They have no policies to implement. You should answer my above question if you seek to demonstrate otherwise.
Oz If I have ‘miss(ed) the point’, then your earlier question must have been rhetorical. The parties take policies to an election and the voters decide who gets an opportunity to implement them after the election.
Oz,
If this was a week before the election and we still had no substance, then sure I’d agree with you. But it’s still two years away. There’s nothing outrageous in what O’Farrell is doing, he’s just following the typical small-target strategy that all Oppositions use. What benefit is it to him to release detailed policy now? If it’s good, Rees will steal it, and if it’s bad the Libs will cop a pounding in the media. Either way, the focus shifts off Labor’s problems.
MDM
au contraire
Rudd was release a policy a week at one stage.
What the people of NSW need to see is what the alternative is.
and currently all people see is nothing,zero,etc
If you are so sure the odds are 10/90 then releasing policies is going to have minimal impact or am I missing something here
Gusface at 40 “The current discomfort is akin to a newborn feeling its way but rees has a mandate from the base to reform.”
The only true “mandate” Rees has is from the voters of Toongabbie, to be their member for the next 28 months. The “mandate” Rees has been given by Sussex St is from public sector unions to avoid tough decisions that affect their members and from Eddie and Joe to give them more power. Not a recipe for long term political success.
Gusface at 47 “But geez lousie the guy has inherited a shambles so cutting him a bit of slack is fair.”
This sounds like the old Beattie/Howard argument – things are not going great, frankly, we couldn’t organise a lamington drive, but hey, who do you trust to fix them up? Rees doesn’t have the residual goodwill, charisma or the political skills to pull that one off. But, yes, I think you’ve correctly captured the central message of the Rees premiership.
Oz at 58 “The onus is on the Coalition to prove they have the policies to repair the state.”
This is RICH 28 months out from the election. Any politician or even interested observer would know this trick, and so early in the political cycle. To put it bluntly, there are no safe assumptions, on a policy or financial basis, that the Coalition could work with, which the current NSW Government, in that amount of time, could not completely destroy.
Would it be too much to suggest that perhaps the incumbent government should have a crack at “policies to repair the state”? It’s not like the election is tomorrow.
“If you are so sure the odds are 10/90 then releasing policies is going to have minimal impact or am I missing something here”
Actually I do tend to agree that nothing either side does will change things. It does seem the voters’ minds are made up, and Labor will find it very difficult to win them back.
oz
you completely missed the point, did federal labor have any strategy for anything 3 years ago – No, because they are not the ruling party, and any policy released 2 years before the election is likely to be redundant by the election time
For all we know, with this inept government, in two years, NSW would be broke, there is no public school, public hospital, or public transport, because these imbliciles aka NSW Labor have done nothing for 12 years
Then it is time for the Liberal government to come in to fix up another Labor mess
Looking back at the last NSW election, some of Debnam’s policy was not bad. Like cutting waste in the public service. Which has been forced on this incompetant govenment now.
“Actually I do tend to agree that nothing either side does will change things.”
I never said that-what I said was if you are so certain its 10/90 then releasing ANY policy would not matter
or is it the case that the state liberals have NO policies to release
“I never said that-what I said was if you are so certain its 10/90 then releasing ANY policy would not matter”
Nothing is likely to change the fact that Labor will lose in 2011, including whether the Liberal party releases detailed policies. I think the government is in such a hole that the Liberals could run an entirely negative campaign, say nothing about their own policies, and win simply because they’re not Labor. Obviously, if they wanted a stronger mandate than “you can’t be worse than the other mob”, they wouldn’t be that dumb.
“or is it the case that the state liberals have NO policies to release”
I have no idea, but if they do I expect they’ll follow the usual opposition tactic of releasing them closer to the election for maximum impact. The general public aren’t political junkies like us- any policy released today would be long forgotten by 2011. I also think than in slow economic times it’s not smart to make big promises that you might end up being unable to fund. Humiliating policy backflips or budget holes on the eve of an election are not a good look.
Gusface
In every election campaign, there is a 4 weeks period, where the parties release what they will do for the next 4 years.
That is when policies will be released. with the NSW ALP doing such a fine job making a mess of everything they touch, why do the opposition need to release anything, and we do not know what mess these NSW ALP will leave, when they are kicked out. 4 weeks ago Costa said he did not even know he had a deficit.
The opposition does not do a budget, that is the work of this group of corrupt incompetant lazy imbeciles.
MDM
sorry for getting back to your post straight away;
I agree taht labor will take a hit-but remember 28 mths is a hell of a long time
The labor brand is tarnished somewhat BUT the authors have mainly left the scene and a process of rejuvenation is underway.The changes will be incremental and if rees holds his nerve ,the electorate will see what changes have happened and vote accordingly.
“including whether the Liberal party releases detailed policies”
now there you go-this is exactly why the liberals will not win.Under bomber and brylcrean labor was poised for victory but had no real distinction from a “hated” liberal admin still with the figurehead in place.Policy DEARTH is political death and no matter how reviled etc the party in power is unless a believable alternative is presented they are normally returned.
Before you mentioned Brogden who had both the charisma and the policies , I feel unfortunately ofarrel has neither.
“Humiliating policy backflips or budget holes on the eve of an election are not a good look”
Im not sure contextually what you mean here?
Guess where the policies for the future are:-
http://nsw.greens.org.au/policies
Decided by the members of the Greens, not by the press, special interest groups, lobbyists,
corporations, multinationals, last weeks of the campaign, in secret, or wiegee boards.
Please LIB/LAB Party steal some, no charge no copy right.
HAH you’re all hypocrites and full of crap.
“Liberals are going to fix the state”
“Why?”
“They have the people to do it”
“What policies have those people come up with”
“Er, there’s no election yet!”
[In every election campaign, there is a 4 weeks period, where the parties release what they will do for the next 4 years.]
So if you have no idea what their policies and their plans to fix the state are, how on earth can you support them?
Oz
Everyone in NSW have a good idea what the ALP is doing about the state, and that is to waste money, to increase tax, to not provide infrastructure and not provide service. The cannot manage the economy, they cannot provide service
Why don’t you walk around Sydney to see the mood, in my office of 125 people, there will not be 1 single person who will vote labor at the next election, including the person who handed out HTV card for Iemma at the last election, he is in Marrickville and he and everyone of his family will be voting for the Green. NSW ALP will be in opposition for the next 20 years in NSW
It is less a vote for the Lib than a vote against a group of corrupt incompetants who won’t get back in as long as this generation remember their incompetancy
“Im not sure contextually what you mean here?”
Suppose O’Farrell did what you demanded and came out tomorrow with a big policy on transport- we’ll build the metros, NW rail link, M4 East, etc. Then the economic times get tighter and by the 2010-11 budget the money isn’t there. So he then has to front the cameras a few months before the election, and either backflip or admit his policies would put the budget billions in deficit. He’d be humiliated, and people would conclude he’s no better than Labor.
It’s much smarter politically to wait until closer to the election, when you know how much money is there, before releasing detailed policies and costings. That’s what oppositions normally do, and I have no problem with this. Governments often do the same thing with their election policies, and I have no problem with that either. Maybe because I’m not particularly wedded to either party, or maybe I’m just a cynic, but I don’t see why you find the small-target strategy so objectionable.
[he is in Marrickville and he and everyone of his family will be voting for the Green.]
Good on him, because The Greens, unlike the Coalition, have a detailed set of policies to make NSW a state worth living in.
You can’t even explain why you want the Libs in power, yet you defend and support them violently. I ask you what they would do to fix the state and you imply that I’m some kind of Labor barracker who can’t see the ills of the state. I’ve pointed out the State government’s woes more than you.
#71
I certainly agree that we’re going to see a boost in the Greens vote from unhappy Labor people, unless Rees can work a miracle. Ironically, it will probably lead to an increase in the number of Liberal MP’s under OPV.
Could Rees overturn OPV and re-institute compulsory preferences? It would be a blantantly cynical and partisan move but it could save a few Labor MPs in seats like Coogee or Drummoyne.
It’s actually not a bad idea politically, although I suspect even with compulsory preferential Labor would lose in NSW big time.
Oz
The Liberals will do what the Liberals do everytime Labor stuffs up an economy
for example
Victoria Caine/Kernot
WA: WA Inc
SA:
NSW:
Federally: Hawke and Keating
The Liberals has been fixing up Labors mess so often, that I have no doubt they will do a better job than the useless incompetant ALP
Did you here about the single carriage train propose by Campbell. Lets provide services to less people and take the state back to the 50s, we have done it to the budget already
“Victoria Caine/Kernot”
Cain/Kirner
I’m inclined to give the Feds more of a pass than I am some of the state governments. Certainly nobody would seriously argue Hawke and Keating were remotely as bad as Kirner or Brian Burke.
Although I agree the train proposal is dumb. Billions of dollars to reduce dwell times at stations by what..a few seconds?
So based on your delusion that Hawke and Keating somehow destroyed Australia you think the Liberals in NSW are magically going to fix the state?
Hopeless.
Oz Hopeless would be much better than the NSW ALP
Paul Keating: “Recession we had to have”
Kevin Rudd: Lack of spending at the start of last recession, prolonged the recession
Even Kevin Rudd agreed that Keating was at fault for not spending enough to cushion the last recession.
It was not a dilusion for Kevin Rudd, maybe you are the one the delusional one
Oz: in my dreams the ALP are the greatest, they fixed everthing, the trains are on time, people aren’t dying in hosipital, teachers are happy.
I will stop wasting time arguing with idiots who have no argument except, I will always vote for the ALP. People need to start living in the real world. I stopped believing the ALP cares about the workers a long time ago, if they do, why do taxes go up and people become unemployed. The ALP cares about 1 thing only Power and the unions who gives them power
1998
Test only
[quote] I will stop wasting time arguing with idiots who have no argument except [/quote]
Another test – sorry William…
[I will stop wasting time]