Presidential election minus two days

Or possibly one day, depending on what time zone you’re in. This will in any case be the final thread for presidential fat-chewing purposes prior to the live blogging of the count, which will begin an hour or two before the first states close their polls. Firstly we have the latest polling aggregate figures, in which McCain has (at the time of writing) taken the lead in Indiana and Missouri and narrowed the gap to various degrees in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania, while losing ground in Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Washington 56.5 39.4 3322 11
Maine 56.6 40.3 2185 4
Minnesota 56.1 41.7 3270 10
Michigan 56.4 42.1 3232 17
New Mexico 57.1 43.0 3305 5
New Hampshire 55.0 41.7 3900 4
Iowa 54.2 41.4 3052 7
Wisconsin 53.4 42.1 3003 10
Colorado 54.9 44.5 3248 9
Pennsylvania 53.1 43.1 5479 21
Nevada 51.7 45.2 3168 5
Virginia 52.0 45.6 3382 13
Ohio 50.6 46.1 6490 20
Florida 50.0 46.6 5381 27
North Dakota 47.7 45.7 1706 3
Montana 48.7 47.4 3934 3
Missouri 49.9 48.6 3217 11
North Carolina 50.1 49.1 5582 15
Indiana 48.6 48.7 3834 11
Georgia 47.9 49.9 3248 15
West Virginia 44.0 54.1 3328 5
Others – – – 175 137
RCP/Total 52.0 44.2 – 370 168

Not sure how illuminating this is, but the following map shows the swing in each state as indicated by Electoral-Vote’s poll averages. White indicates either no change from 2004 or a swing to the Republicans, the latter only applying to Massachusetts where John Kerry presumably garnered a handsome home-state vote. The deepest shade of blue indicates a swing of over 20 per cent. Swing is measured by comparing the vote gap between Republican and Democrats.

This chart indicates how polling in various states has shifted since October 13, as measured by my own polling aggregates. John McCain’s furious campaigning in Pennsylvania has yielded a 7.7 per cent narrowing, which while highly impressive is still nowhere near enough. He has also gained ground in Florida (Obama’s lead is down 4.3 per cent to 3.1 per cent), North Carolina (4.1 per cent to 0.5 per cent), Virginia (3.5 per cent to 5.6 per cent) and Missouri (from 2.3 per cent behind to 0.7 per cent ahead). Barack Obama has extended his lead in New Mexico (up 5.7 per cent to 12.8 per cent), Washington (up 3.8 per cent to 15.7 per cent) and Minnesota (up 3.1 per cent to 9.9 per cent). Ignore Maine, where there have only been a few polls.

Finally, many thanks to reader Viggo Pedersen for compiling this list of poll closing times in Australian Eastern Daylight Time.

State Close
AEDT 		Electoral
Votes 		Cumulative
EV
Vermont 1100 3
Kentucky 1100 8
South Carolina 1100 8
Indiana 1100 11
Virginia 1100 13
Georgia 1100 15 58
West Virginia 1130 5
Ohio 1130 20 83
Delaware 1200 3
District Of Columbia 1200 3
Maine 1200 4
New Hampshire 1200 4
Mississippi 1200 6
Connecticut 1200 7
Oklahoma 1200 7
Alabama 1200 9
Maryland 1200 10
Missouri 1200 11
Tennessee 1200 11
Massachusetts 1200 12
New Jersey 1200 15
Illinois 1200 21
Pennsylvania 1200 21
Florida 1200 27 254
Arkansas 1230 6
North Carolina 1230 15 275
South Dakota 1300 3
Wyoming 1300 3
Rhode Island 1300 4
Nebraska 1300 5
New Mexico 1300 5
Kansas 1300 6
Colorado 1300 9
Louisiana 1300 9
Arizona 1300 10
Minnesota 1300 10
Wisconsin 1300 10
Michigan 1300 17
New York 1300 31
Texas 1300 34 431
Montana 1400 3
Nevada 1400 5
Utah 1400 5
Iowa 1400 7 451
North Dakota 1500 3
Hawaii 1500 4
Idaho 1500 4
Oregon 1500 7
Washington 1500 11
California 1500 55 535
Alaska 1700 3 538

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

587 comments on “Presidential election minus two days”

Comments Page 10 of 12
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  1. [Fox are talking about how Obama can win the popular vote by 4 or 5 million but still lose the election. “Who knows, Obama’s big lead in the national polling could be made up of California and Jersey.”]
    Doesn’t this demonstrate a complete misunderstanding of how national polling is done?

  3. [Fox are talking about how Obama can win the popular vote by 4 or 5 million but still lose the election. “Who knows, Obama’s big lead in the national polling could be made up of California and Jersey.”]

    sounds suspiciously like “Rudd’s votes are all in the safe ALP seats…”

  4. [sounds suspiciously like “Rudd’s votes are all in the safe ALP seats…”]
    Didn’t Christopher Pearson pen a think piece saying that Howard could win with 48.5% 2PP?

  5. CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, PA, OH, MI, NC and GA have 270 ECVs between them. So if a candidate carried each of them with 50% of the vote, and polled no votes anywhere else, they would be elected President with about 25% of the national vote.

  6. SBS 2:30-6:30pm have CNN feed.

    ABC ? Dunno

    9 ? Dunno

    7 ? Dunno

    That was not Nixons doing he was a liberal Republican by standards not at all like Goldwater.

  8. Intrade state level betting is still drifting toward Obama on quite high volume (over 10,000 contracts per day compared with around 1000 early in the campain).

    The battle ground states according to intrade are: (state, probability, EV count if won)

    VA 86% 291
    OH 79% 311
    FL 76% 338 (pollbludger median prediction)
    NC 63% 353
    MO 52% 364
    IN 35% 375
    MT 24% 378

    The punters are giving Obama walk-up start of 338 with a reasonable prospects of pushing up to 364. After that, there is half a shot at IN and then nothing despite the close polls in some Fargo and fly-over states.

  12. Bull Butter and you know it Adam.

    Nixon was VP under Eisenhower, who put Eisenhower in the White House….Nelson A Rockefeller…Nixon was a moderate Republican by any stretch compared to Reagan.

  17. [Nixon was a moderate Republican by any stretch compared to Reagan.]
    Didn’t he start the Federal Education department?
    [SBS 2:30-6:30pm have CNN feed.

    ABC ? Dunno]
    ABC is 12 – 3 eastern

  18. Because Oz Reagan was a Conservative.

    I think i will avoid pollbludger tomorrow, i know my opinions are in the minority but it doesnt make posting on here any easier. I fear as usually i would become a punching bag.

    Enjoy the result.

    Politics is a tough old game, savour the wins because the losses are sometimes hard to bare.

  21. Glen, your abysmal ignorance is showing again. Eisenhower was the McCain of 1952 – a war hero but too moderate (and dull) for the base of the GOP, who had wanted Taft as the nominee. Nixon was his Palin – a right-wing attack-dog who had cut his teeth as a McCarthyite Senator. Reagan was drawn into the GOP in 1964 by Goldwater, not Nixon. Goldwater was an extreme rightist but also a dreamy idealist and a very likeable man. No-one ever much liked Nixon, who was always dour and mistrustful. Reagan is much better seen as Goldwater’s heir than Nixon’s. On the previous point, Nixon invented the “southern strategy” with the advice of Strom Thurmond.

  23. [Glen, your abysmal ignorance is showing again. Eisenhower was the McCain of 1952 – a war hero but too moderate (and dull) for the base of the GOP, who had wanted Taft as the nominee.]
    I thought the Democrats and the Republicans both wanted Eisenhower in 1948?
    [Goldwater was an extreme rightist but also a dreamy idealist and a very likeable man. ]
    But didn’t Goldwater end his senate career denouncing the Religious Right?

  24. Glen, I appreciate that losses are hard to bear and what goes around comes around. One side of politics doesn’t always hold force forever. We know that and it is that knowledge in concert with the pain of (Australian elections) 96/98/01/04 and (US elections) 00 and 04 that makes this year so much more sweet.

    Eventually the tide turns and we’ll be on the short end of the stick.

  28. I would be more upset if the moderate Republicans get thrown out than if Obama wins because it is very rare that one party wins 3 elections in a row Bush Snr won in 1988 mainly because Reagan was still popular that is the exception.

    I dislike much of the Republican Christian Conservative base since i disagree with most of their social policy, so to see moderates lose will feel worse.

  29. [Election guesses now officially suspended 😀 …. good luck, folks, see you on the other side :-D]
    Oh no way! I was meant to change my guess! Stupid essay marking.

  32. Glen – I endorse what Gusface says…

    Will be keen to hear your perspective as the count comes in.

    There are those of us here who feel PB would not be the same without you – especially on a historic night such as tonight.

    Adam – I did want to ask you for any moderate republican govenors in existence iyo. Specter, if a bit younger, might have made an interesting 2012 candidate (from the right kind of state?)

    I hope Smith hangs on.

    I reckon Hagel for SecState on Jan 20… Obi has to keep true to the West Wing script!

  33. Truman tried to recruit Ike for the 1952 election but he was always a Republican at heart, albeit a moderate one.

    Goldwater was of Jewish descent and was a secular, national security rightist, he didn’t like religious zealots. So he didn’t much like the GOP as it became by the time he retired.

    I don’t know what Rockfeller was doing politically in 1952 but he wasn’t anywhere near the front rank of the GOP. He didn’t run for Governor of NY until 1958. In 1952 I think he was just a rich philanthropist.

  36. [Because Oz Reagan was a Conservative.]

    I just thought it was weird that you said he was a “liberal Republican” but your only benchmark was Reagan.

  37. … always wanted to use the phrase “I endorse”!!!

    Guys, I love this site and enjoy the to-and-fro… and find myself depending on it for intellectual stimulation out here in the political backwaters! We can disagree as much as we like and dress it up in a bit of abuse (I’m not above that), but lets not have anyone feel disrespected here too much? I even miss Edward St John and would have enjoyed his contribution today…

    My kudos to Ron and the Amigos – don’t agree with you guys often, but a pure lovefest here would be MUCH more boring.

    Kumbaya all…

  38. [Nine and Seven are both starting at 11am I think.]

    For WA Bludgers Seven’s coverage will be at 9am Western Daylight Time, dunno about Nine, while the SBS coverage starts at Noon.

  39. [Hope you’ve got a glass of red by your side.]
    I’ve actually got a glass of milk. How lame is that!
    [Are you a fellow chalkie, ShowsOn?]
    Uni tutor. I try to use white boards – unsuccessfully.
    [Goldwater was of Jewish descent and was a secular, national security rightist, he didn’t like religious zealots]
    Was he to Nixon’s right on economics?

  40. First count in:

    DIXVILLE NOTCH, New Hampshire (CNN) — Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama emerged victorious in the first election returns of the 2008 presidential race, winning 15 of 21 votes cast in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.

    A good start, if a bit unrepresentative.

  45. I did see some strange poll on CNN a few days back, where 50+% of those polled identified as “conservative”, something like 35% “liberal” and around 20% “moderate”

    Self-identified liberals was surprisingly high (but don’t know who was polled, etc)

    Could anyone venture a guess where the line between liberal and moderate is (do you think its a fiscal/economic distinction but not social)… and, for that matter where the line between conservative & moderate is (I suspect social distinction but not fiscal)???

  46. Yes, Goldwater was a pure free-market liberal, almost a libertarian. Nixon was a cynical opportunist who wasn’t interested in economics as such. His response to inflation in 1971 was a wage and price freeze! Milton Friedman nearly had a fit on TV, I remember it well. Nixon was really only interested in power and revenge for their own sake.

  47. [I did see some strange poll on CNN a few days back, where 50+% of those polled identified as “conservative”, something like 35% “liberal” and around 20% “moderate”]
    That sounds about right. The Democrats win by binding the Liberals and the Moderates. The Republicans win by scaring some of the moderates to bind to the Conservatives.
    [Does anyone know the best interactive map that will be updating live tomorrow?]
    I installed this widget thing:
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27227813

  48. If anybody is the biggest loser tomorrow it isnt McCain…it’s Hillary Clinton.

    I suspect people will write What If? books on her winning the nomination and becoming President.

  50. I agree Glen. I said almost a year ago that the US was headed for a recession and Hillary would romp home under those circumstances. She has been pretty gracious about it really but she must feel frustrated – Obama has run a god campaign but has had all the breaks.

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