Or possibly one day, depending on what time zone you’re in. This will in any case be the final thread for presidential fat-chewing purposes prior to the live blogging of the count, which will begin an hour or two before the first states close their polls. Firstly we have the latest polling aggregate figures, in which McCain has (at the time of writing) taken the lead in Indiana and Missouri and narrowed the gap to various degrees in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania, while losing ground in Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire.
Not sure how illuminating this is, but the following map shows the swing in each state as indicated by Electoral-Vote’s poll averages. White indicates either no change from 2004 or a swing to the Republicans, the latter only applying to Massachusetts where John Kerry presumably garnered a handsome home-state vote. The deepest shade of blue indicates a swing of over 20 per cent. Swing is measured by comparing the vote gap between Republican and Democrats.
This chart indicates how polling in various states has shifted since October 13, as measured by my own polling aggregates. John McCain’s furious campaigning in Pennsylvania has yielded a 7.7 per cent narrowing, which while highly impressive is still nowhere near enough. He has also gained ground in Florida (Obama’s lead is down 4.3 per cent to 3.1 per cent), North Carolina (4.1 per cent to 0.5 per cent), Virginia (3.5 per cent to 5.6 per cent) and Missouri (from 2.3 per cent behind to 0.7 per cent ahead). Barack Obama has extended his lead in New Mexico (up 5.7 per cent to 12.8 per cent), Washington (up 3.8 per cent to 15.7 per cent) and Minnesota (up 3.1 per cent to 9.9 per cent). Ignore Maine, where there have only been a few polls.
Finally, many thanks to reader Viggo Pedersen for compiling this list of poll closing times in Australian Eastern Daylight Time.
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587 comments on “Presidential election minus two days”
Why isnt Hillary Senate Majority Leader???
You’re right, Adam, it’s certainly not over in Florida…
lets say i am an economic liberal but social conservative (like Huckabee might be depicted)… am I a conservative?
that’s hypothetical, of course… I suspect I am a moderate (I think)
Glen, you are so right about Hilary… she must be banging her head against a wall somewhere big time… I wonder if she was offered VP but turned it down… (one day we’ll know)… her 2012 strategy is gone now, and she’ll be too old in 2016? Its poss she asked Obi to go with Biden with a view to replacing him at the next election…
[I suspect people will write What If? books on her winning the nomination and becoming President.]
It could be a new genre! Hillary alternative history fiction!
“Obama has run a god campaign ” well messianic at least
and also a pretty good one too.
[Why isnt Hillary Senate Majority Leader???]
That’s a job given out based on seniority, she hasn’t been there long enough.
I suppose Adam is right – none of us know for sure how the count will go tomorrow. But I can’t see McCain doing a Bush this time. There is no swift-boat equivalent against Obama, who has already got a reported 59% of the 30% early votes in the bag. I don’t see how Obama can lose from here.
Sorry Gus, an interesting typo there! 🙂 Reflects his press coverage?
Great story on Malaysian politics on Foreign correspondent tonight.
Reid isnt exactly the Dems best performer though.
I still think McCain will win Florida and Ohio but lose the election handsomely.
If Obama doesnt put Hillary on the ticket in 2012, he’s not setting the Dems up for 2016 at all. The last thing they need is Biden to be a Dick Cheney.
Bush made a grave error in not choosing a younger VP candidate who could have ran this election….not that it would have mattered but still, better than Dick.
Joe Scarborough… “Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago…”
[I still think McCain will win Florida and Ohio but lose the election handsomely.]
Hubris, Glen. Hubris
Wasn’t it Goldwater who wanted to nuke North Vietnam ‘back to the stone age’?
[The last thing they need is Biden to be a Dick Cheney.]
Biden won’t be Dick Cheney, he isn’t that power hungry.
[Bush made a grave error in not choosing a younger VP candidate who could have ran this election….not that it would have mattered but still, better than Dick.]
Cheney chose himself remember. Bush assigned him the tax of vetting V.P. candidates, and then somehow he concluded that HE would be the best candidate! If that isn’t a power hungry guy, I don’t know who is.
Dewey, Dewey, Dewey, Dewey, Dewey…
This says as much, if not more, about the methodology of electoral-vote.com – where polls are continually dropped and replaced – as it does about the polls themselves. Not all polls are the same of course. It’s like dropping a week old Morgan poll for a new Galaxy poll and calling it a ‘narrowing’.
[Dewey, Dewey, Dewey, Dewey, Dewey…]
Truman, Truman, Truman, Truman, Truman…
I’m telling you Glen, Truman wins.
The early votes are probably heavily skewed by Obama voters disproportionately selecting themselves to vote early. There have been anecdotal reports that the mood in the queues is ‘upbeat’, not ‘desperate’.
Harry T was a good President though. Still i must admit i like Dewey as well.
damn,you beat me to it this time 🙂
Hilary will be how old in 2016 – almost 70?
Watch for Tim Kaine or Mark Warner to replace Biden… Virginia has some real talent on the Dem side these days (inc Webb).
Who was on Bush’s shortlist before Cheney proposed himself… I think Elizabeth Dole was right up there… so, am not too cut up about that!! Have I mentioned that Bachmann from Minnesota absolutely has to go too…
Jindal should wait for 2016, assuming he has a successful govenorship – but he ain’t no Vinick either… where are we going to find a moderate for 2012/2016… I still think Romney Mark 1 is the only real bet at the moment?
History Channel narrator: America, 1948. Americans pick their president. Victory seemed certain for Governor Thomas E. Dewey.
Homer: Dewey! Dewey! Dewey! Dewey!
Lisa: Dad, I’m telling you. Truman wins.
Narrator: The headlines proclaim, “Dewey defeats Truman.”
Homer: Yes, I win the bet! Who’s your daddy?!
Narrator: But the headlines are dead wrong. Harry Truman triumphs by two million votes.
Homer: Not if I can stop that inauguration!
Romney would be too old and will go probably for 2012 because he wont make it in 2016.
If it takes till 2016 the Republican probably isnt even in politics yet lol.
The Simpsons is so insanely clever I don’t even know if you can call it funny. The satire of politics, US politics in particular, rings so true.
what is wrong with huckabee.
I actually like the guy (dont know much about his policies, but he looks “safe”)
[If it takes till 2016 the Republican probably isnt even in politics yet lol.]
He is doing his apprenticeship now…
In 2016, Joe the Plumber becomes JOE THE POLITICIAN!
[If it takes till 2016 the Republican probably isnt even in politics yet lol.]
Since they’re unlikely to get in this election, wouldn’t that them “unexperienced”?
Night all – I’ll leave with a line (via Doonsebury) from fromer Sec of State Lawrence Eagleberger on Palin:
[When asked by the host whether Palin could step in during a time of crisis, Eagleburger responded: “Look, of course not. I don’t think at the moment she is prepared to take over the reins of the presidency.”
He later added, “Give her some time in the office and I think the answer would be, she will be…..adequate. I can’t say that she would be a genius in the job. But I think she would be enough to get us through a four year… well I hope not… get us through whatever period of time was necessary. And I devoutly hope that it would never be tested.” ]
When the Repubs wonder why they lost, I’ll give them a pointer – the answer ain’t in the “lower 48”. (It was Hawaii and Alaska what done it)
Hmmm i like Huckabee he would appeal to the base, but he is quite socially conservative.
I would rather Huckabee in 2012 than Romney.
Huckabee actually has his own talk show on Fox lol!
So true, Oz.
Flanders: “We live in that small space of land between New York and California called the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!”
Betfair has McCain out to 16 tonight from 12.5 this morning. Oh teh narrowing, teh narrowing, time to wake up from an 8 year nightmare!
[The Simpsons is so insanely clever I don’t even know if you can call it funny. The satire of politics, US politics in particular, rings so true.]
yep and they cut it both ways:
[Bart: “Didn’t you wonder why you were getting checks for doing
Grampa: “I figured because the democrats were in power again.”]
and with that, goodnight!
David W went:
[This says as much, if not more, about the methodology of electoral-vote.com – where polls are continually dropped and replaced – as it does about the polls themselves. Not all polls are the same of course. It’s like dropping a week old Morgan poll for a new Galaxy poll and calling it a ‘narrowing’.]
Spot on. Electoral-vote has been comprehensively trumped by Pollster.com this year for state and national polling data. There’s been no narrowing on the national trends, there’s been a few states that have narrowed for McCain, a few that have narrowed for Obama and most of the ones where the narrowing occurred on Electoral Vote haven’t actually occurred at all according to the raw data.
If Obama wins I think there are lots of reasons. The republicans have given him four good ones:
– a lame duck incumbent president
– a crashed economy they are impotent to fix
– a deeply divided republican party base
In fact, while I think Obama has run a genuinely good campaign, this one has been easier for him than it should have been. I don’t think we will really know if Obama is a top political campaigner until 2012, when he may face a tougher opponent.
I agree with you in some ways, Socrates. If the economy wasn’t so bad I think we’d be talking about a toss-up election. But I think you’re selling Obama a bit short. He had to defeat the Clinton machine.
Palin’s medical record. Good thing ltep isn’t here to yell at me.
[I don’t think we will really know if Obama is a top political campaigner until 2012, when he may face a tougher opponent.]
I think the bigger test was Clinton, not McCain.
are you saying this is “the drovers dog” election.
I agree that obi has had a dream run btw
Your right Obama did run an excelent primary campaign – that was a tough contest, so perhaps I have been too harsh on his campaigning skills. But the election no – it has all gone his way since August.
I am probably being over cautious on Obama. I want him to win but don’t have enormous expectations of him in office. As with Rudd, I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he really takes the mantle and creates genuine change.
[As with Rudd, I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he really takes the mantle and creates genuine change.]
And with that, I’ll see you all after the jump.
Good evening all.
Tomorrow the world will become a better place 😀
YES WE CAN
The game will be a whole lot different in four years. Provided he makes something like a decent fist of it, the pres has huge incumbency power. Apart from that, the fear machine will have much more difficulty with someone who has been around for four years – unless he stops the US getting into a couple more absolutely ‘necessary’ wars, bans guns in the US, halves the expenditure on the military, further trashes the economy, and gets caught in bed with Ahmadinejad and Bin Laden.
The GOP have four years to try to cobble together a reconciliation between the irreconcilable – the Palin know-nothing crazy right, and whatever the thoughtful and decent moderates GOPcan scratch together.
Thats not a medical record Oz, its a sick note
Final University of Cincinnati Poll for Ohio
Huckabee 2012 is not a bad bet – he is very likeable and acceptable to the whackjob part of the base. Has a good gubernatorial record in Arkansas… but the economic conservatives hated him… maybe he can spend a couple of years brushing up on that. His social views aren’t going to work too much with independents, though.
He was very unlucky this time around… Thompson siphoned just enough votes off him in Sth Carolina for McCain to sneak into 1st… mind you, he did the same against Romney for cadaverboy to take Florida. If Huck had won the SC primary…
I have to send another rasberry to Giulliani – he wins the contest for most idiotic strategy hands down (even worse than Hilary, and Mac here in the general). Some guys do seem to be charmed – think Blair & Rudd… but they do make their own luck?
Expat @ 545
Yep. Unlike Howard, Blair made some more ‘luck’ for himself by being pushed/jumping just before the kaka hit the fan. George Brown did all the hard yakka and is now carrying the can.
[Has a good gubernatorial record in Arkansas…]
Based around increasing taxes!
[Based around increasing taxes!]
Redistributing the wealth! HE’S A SOCIALIST!!!
Night all, see you in a new era of democracy 🙂
I’m off too. Let’s just hope what should happen actually happens.