Presidential election minus five days

With less than a week ago to the big day, the polls are showing only a fractional narrowing in Barack Obama’s formidable lead. Such narrowing has been enough to move North Carolina to the John McCain column on my polling aggregates while making Indiana line-ball, but Obama is retaining his tight grip on the rust-belt swing states while increasing his lead in Florida. For some local colour, our good friends at UMR Research have produced another poll on Australian views of the contest. It finds Obama’s lead over McCain among Australians has widened still further in the past month, from 66-13 to 72-9.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 54.7 39.4 3005 17
Washington 54.9 40.1 3379 11
Maine 54.5 40.0 2185 4
Minnesota 53.6 41.3 4128 10
Iowa 52.6 41.7 3530 7
Pennsylvania 52.2 41.7 5505 21
New Hampshire 51.7 41.9 3905 4
Wisconsin 51.5 42.1 3490 10
New Mexico 50.5 43.3 2927 5
Colorado 50.6 44.4 4541 9
Ohio 48.6 42.8 4741 20
Virginia 50.7 45.0 4852 13
Nevada 50.0 45.4 3418 5
Florida 48.0 45.2 5429 27
Missouri 47.4 46.5 4050 11
North Dakota 45.5 44.7 1206 3
Indiana 47.1 47.0 4934 11
North Carolina 47.4 48.4 5466 15
Montana 45.0 48.9 3128 3
Georgia 45.6 50.0 3530 15
West Virginia 42.7 51.0 3622 5
Others – – – 175 137
RCP/Total 49.9 43.9 – 363 175

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

478 comments on “Presidential election minus five days”

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  1. zombie

    Those Zogby polls are a crock as usual. I’d be happy if they were all on the money but Zogby just tosses a coin. His national polls are pitiful.

    McCain by 5% in IN. Obama by 13% in PA.

  2. Juliem

    My latest prognostication.

    Obama to win Missouri.
    EV 349
    After studying the time differences I think Nevada will take him over the top.

  3. expat, you mentioned “morning”, just out of curiousity, where do you live? sorry if you’ve mentioned that already, if you did, I forgot it 🙁 …… i’ve no room in my head right now for much beyond election news 😀 …..

  5. An Cu, from your post earlier on this thread I don’t recall that you said whether or not you thought Obama would win Missouri? if you can update me with that before 10pm on Tuesday, please 🙂 ….. thanks 🙂

  9. #357, injuddstree, I’ve got that down now but perusing others who are also at 311, can you please pick a state that will put Obama over the top (270+) with EV’s? unless you want to share the glory, you need to pick one not already called by Al or SimonH. As it stands now, if CA is the state, they will share the win if the EV total is 311. If OR, WA or HI put him over the 270 mark, Al gets the honor. Not sure about yours until you let me know? 🙂 Cheers

    Al O 311 N MO CA/OR/WA/HI
    SimonH O 311 N MO CA
    injuddstree O 311 N MO ??

  10. No, GG, it is not. I’ve got 33 players (of which you aren’t one yet, want in?) and I’ve had 3 or 4 changes today to EV totals so far. Half each way 😉 …..

    We’re smiling all the way to the White House 😉

  11. Haha no worries. I’ll say NV.

    My brain is telling me not to reduce my prediction. In fact, my brain tells me it will be 340+. But my heart is telling me not to be so cocky. Same as Oz 07.

    Also, any chance of a list with names and predictions so far?

  13. JulieM,

    My comments are merely observational.

    I have always found predictions difficult, especailly about the future.

    Is that the White House or the Out House? The distance is not too far between the two.

  14. Just looking at Ronald Reagan’s 1980 figures earlier:
    50.7% of the vote
    Won 44 states
    489 ECV to 49

    Could history repeat with Obama, just maybe?

  15. Julie, I’m in Sth Africa… where the politics is so depressing that we’re forced to look elsewhere for our fix!

  16. Three weeks ago I would’ve said yes. Now, IMO, I think McCain has more of a chance of winning than Obama winning 400+.

  17. Injuddstree @ 361,

    See my post #88 this same thread. I’m not going to post another update and clog William’s bandwidth, excepting a few changes and a few new entrants, that list is still 90 to 95% accurate …..

    Cheers 🙂

  18. [
    Harry “Snapper” Organs
    Posted Monday, November 3, 2008 at 7:32 pm | Permalink
    Some of us are just Biden our time, Juliem
    ]

    No worries, if you want in, nlt 10pm Canberra time Tuesday evening …..

  19. GG

    Any tips for tomorrow? I still like Zipping but the scientist in me can’t go past Alessandro Volta (I visited his lab in Pavia).

  21. Diogenes,

    Nom De Jeu
    Mad Rush
    Gallopin

    You and other PBers can now safely eliminate the above from consideration.

    Cheers

  22. GG

    We really need Glen to tip a few to cut down the numbers. Adam hasn’t been The Accurate One recently either so he could provide a few more kisses of death.

    Honolulu would be the omen bet for Obama and C’est la Guerre for McCain.

    [Usually said with a shrug of the shoulders, upturned palms, and a slight shake of the head “C’est la guerre” is a nicely ironic phrase used as an excuse for anything which goes wrong, often due to incompetence (sometimes one’s own) or cirmumstances beyond ones control. A less elegant phrase would be “Hey, what can you do?” ]

  24. Drew 1-1 against India in India and beat England at home earlier this year… have a good bowling line-up esp with Dale Steyn… I think they on paper should give the Aussies a good run this summer. Its all psychological with them and the Aussie team, though… Aussie team I think coming off its 13 year dominance of the test game, methinks (not that I support SA in a million yrs!!!)

  25. By the way, an American gal who has gotten into cricket plus obsessed with politics…. quite the fantasy proposition you are miss J!

  26. Glen

    The Bradley Effect doesn’t exist in the 21st Century. The Reverse Bradley does though (well we’ll find out in a few days).

  29. Are any Obama supporters worried about the Bradley effect?

    In my (albeit limited) experience, racists have no problem stating what they mean. In fact, I’m having a hard time thinking of any racist who would dilly-dally with such niceties that the “Bradley Effect” implies.

  30. [
    carpetbagger
    Posted Monday, November 3, 2008 at 7:38 pm | Permalink
    Just looking at Ronald Reagan’s 1980 figures earlier:
    50.7% of the vote
    Won 44 states
    489 ECV to 49

    Could history repeat with Obama, just maybe?
    ]

    I don’t think that *if* Obama gets 50.7% of the vote, that it will be spread out in such a way that he will get 44 states. I simply can not see him getting much beyond what I’ve picked which is 375 (RCP current no tossup map + Missouri and Indiana). Beyond that lot, it will be icing on the cake as none of the other states have been even in with a sniff on the RCP map all campaign … I know some of the polling has been close in recent days but if it was reliable enough to trust, the RCP map would move it …..

  31. [
    Glen
    Posted Monday, November 3, 2008 at 8:02 pm | Permalink
    Are any Obama supporters worried about the Bradley effect?

    I dont believe McCain will win but are any of you worried?
    ]

    Glen, I was worried until about mid September, not any more though, not by a long shot …. 😀

  33. I’m more concerned about the “injuddstree effect*”, a statistical phenonmenon where, despite all reliable and consistent polling and anecdotal data, I can’t be confident until I actually see it.

    *See: 2007 Australian Federal Election

  35. [
    Expat Follower
    Posted Monday, November 3, 2008 at 8:04 pm | Permalink
    By the way, an American gal who has gotten into cricket plus obsessed with politics…. quite the fantasy proposition you are miss J!
    ]

    I’ve been true blue Aussie since I met my husband in 1994. We’ve been married since 1996 but because of custody issues with the 2 children from my first marraiage, couldn’t leave the states for here until they were “of age”. We’ve been here at one address or another since early December 2004.

    Never liked baseball at all, loved football though (gridiron) college moreso than professional. Very quickly picked up AFL and cricket 😀 ….. I know a good game when I see it 😉 …. [ apologies in advance if you’re not an AFL man ]

    I’m serious on Wednesday; I told the kids no cartoons when they get home, CNN and election stuff until I say I’ve had enough and I’ve purchased microwave meals for the 3 of us (my husband is away on business at the moment) for dinner on Wednesday so I don’t have to cook anything and don’t have to leave the house for pickup of take away or fast food …..

    Problem though with computers at my house on Wednesday. Our laptop died over the weekend and it is fixable but not, unfortunately, in time for the election. Our desktop is in another part of the house from the TV. That means my PB time on Wednesday once the coverage starts will be quick ins and outs when I can manage until much later on in the day when results are much clearer ….. I bloody wish I had the laptop and could do “live blogging” as the TV was going in the background but it isn’t going to happen at my house on Wednesday 🙁 ….

  36. As Nate Silver said, in one of many prescient quotes;

    The frequency with which the Bradley effect is mentioned by right-wing commentators is proportional to Obama’s lead in the polls.

    GG

    According to Google, you are the only English speaking person to use the term “hubrication” so I’d pick that one. And before calling me a hubricator, allow me to point out that I only tipped Obama to get 292 EVs.

  37. Timing here in SA is useful – starts at midnight… have warned the missus that I’ll be spending Tue night on the couch watching CNN… she didn’t seem too devastated to hear this, though…

  38. How many Obama supporters originally backed Clinton???

    If anything she is the biggest loser of this election, who’d have thunk it last year.

  39. I will be away from tomorrow and so will say this a bit early. Whatever the result on Wed, we all owe a big thank you to Juliem for her sources of info, indefatigability and amazing good humour. I think you should be nominated for Australian of the Year for your efforts on this blog and on the campaign frontlines. Bravo!

  40. Diogenes,

    As a Doctor, can you explain why we retain so much trivia. I know I know nothing about many things. Yet, I can pass muster on topics I know nothing about with no more than buzz words and a few connecting homilies.

    Being wise is a Con!

  41. I doubt i would have said it last year, but what i wouldnt give for Clinton to be President instead of Obama….’shakes head’…

  42. EF

    Is there going to be anything to watch at that hour? I thought there would only be real coverage when the first polls close.

  43. [
    ltep
    Posted Monday, November 3, 2008 at 8:14 pm | Permalink
    Glen no. I don’t believe ‘the Bradley effect’ and think it’s just wishful thinking from desperate Republicans.
    ]

    and you don’t count yourself amongst that group? if you don’t, how would you self identify your politics? Cheers 🙂

  44. [How many Obama supporters originally backed Clinton???]
    I’m one.
    [Is there going to be anything to watch at that hour? I thought there would only be real coverage when the first polls close.]
    For people only with radio, I heard this morning that NewsRadio will be broadcasting National Public Radio live from 11 AM Eastern.

  45. [I bloody wish I had the laptop and could do “live blogging” as the TV was going in the background but it isn’t going to happen at my house on Wednesday]

    Buy an extra long LAN or modem cable and move the desktop 😉

  46. Keep trying, Glen baby… Clinton is 90% close to Obama, just as McCain is 90% close to GWB. I think you’re still sour that Santos beat Vinick!! I won’t give you too hard a time over your initial backing of Rudy though (guffaw)

    Dio – probably not, but i ain’t missing a second of the buildup and everything… been waiting a long time for this!

  47. [How many Obama supporters originally backed Clinton???]

    I did, but wasn’t following it all that closely until very late in the primaries

  48. I heard SBS will run coverage from 2:30pm to 6:30pm.

    Juliem I would find myself a moderate Republican.
    I dont especially like how much of the Republican Party has turned into a Bible Basher club so on most social issues i would differ with them but on economic and foreign policy issues i would be very much in agreement.

    Juliem, i dont know if you knew but i originally backed Rudy Giuliani to begin with.

    I would say Obama has an 80% chance of winning it just depends whether it will be a rout or not. I hope that it isnt a rout but not close enough to get people miffed.

    Rush and Bill are going to have a lot to say in the next 4 years.

  49. juliem I’m socially quite far to the left (support gay marriage, voluntary euthanasia, strong gun control, legalised abortion, increased intake of humanitarian refugees etc.) In the Australian spectrum I’d probably fit with the Greens but can’t take them seriously as a political force.

    As far as the US election goes I think George Bush is a shame to all Americans and it truly is beyond me how he could’ve won an election. If I had to vote it’d be for Obama.

    Having said that I’ve always found something discomforting and untrustworthy about him and found Hillary Clinton to be a more compelling candidate overall. John McCain is not right at all.

  50. Weighted averages for national polls released 01/11 (11/01) have Obama up around the 51.5% mark- if that holds on election day it will be a BIG result in American election terms.

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