Presidential election minus five days

With less than a week ago to the big day, the polls are showing only a fractional narrowing in Barack Obama’s formidable lead. Such narrowing has been enough to move North Carolina to the John McCain column on my polling aggregates while making Indiana line-ball, but Obama is retaining his tight grip on the rust-belt swing states while increasing his lead in Florida. For some local colour, our good friends at UMR Research have produced another poll on Australian views of the contest. It finds Obama’s lead over McCain among Australians has widened still further in the past month, from 66-13 to 72-9.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 54.7 39.4 3005 17
Washington 54.9 40.1 3379 11
Maine 54.5 40.0 2185 4
Minnesota 53.6 41.3 4128 10
Iowa 52.6 41.7 3530 7
Pennsylvania 52.2 41.7 5505 21
New Hampshire 51.7 41.9 3905 4
Wisconsin 51.5 42.1 3490 10
New Mexico 50.5 43.3 2927 5
Colorado 50.6 44.4 4541 9
Ohio 48.6 42.8 4741 20
Virginia 50.7 45.0 4852 13
Nevada 50.0 45.4 3418 5
Florida 48.0 45.2 5429 27
Missouri 47.4 46.5 4050 11
North Dakota 45.5 44.7 1206 3
Indiana 47.1 47.0 4934 11
North Carolina 47.4 48.4 5466 15
Montana 45.0 48.9 3128 3
Georgia 45.6 50.0 3530 15
West Virginia 42.7 51.0 3622 5
Others – – – 175 137
RCP/Total 49.9 43.9 – 363 175

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

478 comments on “Presidential election minus five days”

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  2. Glen, I’m willing to call all of those excepting Louisana and Nebraska (splits their EV, Obama likely to get Omaha) for McCain 🙂 ….

    I’m full of good will today 🙂 🙂

  3. Julie @ 292
    Further to your comment about Chuck Todd at NBC: Here’s his cogent take on Colorado which is doubly sweet for me because my rightwing Repub brother lives there. The salient point is Todd’s assertion that the Repubs winning coalition, The Southern Strategy, is now “inoperative” (to use a favourite term employed by THE great Southern Strategist, R. M. Nixon):

    “Colorado: What a transformation. The Democratic dominance is taking place so fast that it appears the state forgot it was supposed to stop in “toss-up” land on its way from Red to Blue status. Democrats could win another House seat in the state, another Senate seat and see Obama carry the state. If I were the Republican Party, I’d make Michigan and Colorado my petri dishes for experiments to get the party’s groove back. Until the GOP can appeal to secular independents in the West and working class Democrats in the Midwest, they are going to be a minority party. The party’s comeback should start in one of these two states because they are microcosms of the GOP’s issues.”

    RE: my entry in Great Guesstimate Contest. You are spot on, as always, that I am standing pat on 313 EV’s, No Mizzou, and California.

    ExPat Follower, I’ve been wracked by too many over-optimistic expectations for too many past elections, including K’07 final 2PP margin of victory tightening in the final week to 5.4 over Howard, which is close to what I expect Obama’s margin will be over McCain. What an immensely proud feeling it would be for my old country to follow the sagacious voters of OZ almost precisely one year later.

  5. Jeepers, Julie, I’d never seen the K’07 one before—what a little bewdy!

    My Muchas Gracias for the links and for your unflagging good humour throughout this past month or so.

  10. Prediction

    As th sole regular Non Obama supporter in th flock here , I will make a specific range of e/v and State predictions using odds methodology

    Firstly , tink th pollstars generally hav been wrong all year on turnout and that likely voters will be at least 1% higher

    Secondly , expect small Bradleys probably in areas of say CA and MA…and larger reverse Bradleys in say VA , MS & AL However if high turnouts vs Pollstars dissections then more difficult to identify

    Unwinnable States for Obama that conversally numerous US pundits say for ar in play : GA , WV , AR , MT (and ND most unlikely)

    E/V’s guaranteed (100/0% chanse Obama ) 311

    E/V’s variously marginol …FL , IN , NC & MO (64 e/v’s)

    These marginals warrant individual general assessment :

    FL (70/30% for Obama) should be naturally more marginal than this … but th (“R” brand ) bailout hurt retirees & Obama’s promise to part drill offshore both added votes

    NC (54/46%chnse for Obama) reason: reely a red State chance for Obama on changed demographics & large assumed black vote turnout) ,

    IN (52/48% chance for McCain , reason a normative conservative unwinnable red State but fluke is that Obama comes from IL & th very pro Obama IL Media beams into th west of IN helping make IN quite Obama competitive , and also underestimated “likely voters” turnout will make it close)

    MO 50/50% cliffhanger ..to split would normaly go with incumbency & narrowing non wish t change but I’ hav to assume my suspicions ar correct that Pollstars in US hav undertated likely voters by about 1% and if so MO is th State frankley it would now be most decisive in , so weighting that likely voters understatement makes MO 50.5/49.5% chanse for Obama

    These 4 marginal States equal an Obama 364 final e/v total on break odds

    A probable over th odds bet with value with 364 from Bookies but would need a layoff on say CA as th tipping point , and everyone then to hope bookies do not 100% clean up everyones money by a very unlikely % chanse E/V split of either NE or ME

  13. Derrrrr – Thanks Dario. My brother called me a geriatric today so hope he is not reading this or it will be confirmed!

    Has anyone heard whether the Rev. Wright ads being run until the election by the GOP Trust are having an effect? I’ve given up Fixed News to keep the blood pressure in check but haven’t seen anything about the ads on CNN so far.

  14. I think at this late stage it will be difficult to determine what works or not. Haven’t seen too many media articles about the ads so I don’t think they are getting that wide a circulation.

  16. Crikey has just come through here so I’ll have a look to see if there is anything from Guy Rundle. His reports have been great so far.

  17. 310,

    Ron if I understand you correctly, you are going 364 with California as the state to put him over the top (based upon the order that the states are called in for Obama on election night. (and Yes on Missouri)

    If that is wrong (again, apologies, I’ve a hard time understanding your posts), please correct me by posting numbers that are different.

    Summary – 364 Y Missouri California

  20. Dario, that Great Gallup Poll has a stable mate!

    From Huffington Post a short time ago:

    “With two days left until the presidential election, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent, a new CBS News poll finds. The margin in the new poll, released Sunday, is identical to that in a CBS News poll released Saturday.

    As the number of undecided voters has dwindled, so has the number that says their minds can still change. More than nine in 10 of each candidate’s voters now say they have made up their minds about who to vote for and are not likely to change. Just seven percent of Obama voters and 8 percent of McCain voters say they still might change their minds.”

    I think this might help answer BH’s question in comment #313 about Rev. Wright ads. Of course, a major problem with Rev ads is that they give proof that Obama is not a muslim, which some whacky Americans still believe.

    As Paul Keating once said, “what a beautiful set of numbers”!

  24. juliem you sound like Michelle Obama saying she was never proud of America until Obama won the nomination for the Democrats.

    We shouldnt feel proud in politics only when our side wins.

  26. Jjulian – hadn’t thought about the Christian aspect of the ads. You are right – there is a reverse side to it. I feel a bit better, thanks.
    538.com now has Obama’s lead down from earlier today- what would be doing that.

  27. Updates still needed from a few people out there if you are still tuned into this channel? 😉 ….

    Glen and WorkToRule, a summary of your guesses. If either one wishes a change, post it before 10pm Tuesday. Otherwise, if your number comes up, you share the glory since your tiebreakers are the same.

    Glen O 291 N MO CO
    worktorule O 291 N MO CO

    Evan14, I still don’t have the state that you think will put Obama over 270 [ I’m using the count as delivered by CNN to get this answer ]. Right now, you’re on the same numbers with someone else and they’ve picked Virginia as the state that will put Obama over 270.

    StewartJ and William, same as previous paragraph. I still need the state that you think will put Obama over the top.

    StewartJ, your competition has said the quad of CA/OR/WA/HI for putting Obama over the top (meaning that any one of those 4 qualify for an answer). You could select the same if you don’t mind sharing with someone else, or just pick a different state from those 4? Up to you :).

    William, if you can’t decide and our number comes up, I can just use the fact that I put in 375 first as a tie breaker. We’ve both picked Missouri for Obama but everyone 364 and above has done so 😀

  28. 324,

    Glen, after 8 years of incompetence in Washington, you are not getting me down this close to the coup de grace 😀 ……..

    Sorry, but in my corner I don’t feel the emotion of pride when the administration in Washington acts against my beliefs :).

    Possum, don’t know where you have been the last few days/weeks? Get the remote warmed up and the alcohol on ice up in our corner of the tree 🙂 🙂 🙂

  32. This refers to a fascinating study which showed that Gore supporters expected to be devastated if they lost but weren’t when it actually happened. What’s even more fascinating is that they falsely remembered being devastated three months later on the day the Supreme Court stole our bloody victory. The same was true of Bush supporters replacing ecstatic for devastated.

    [Lebanon Valley is one of three institutions doing a study this year on the emotional intensity of the election, comparing people’s expectations to their reactions afterward. A similar study done for the 2000 election showed that people who expected to be inconsolable if Al Gore lost actually felt OK when it happened.

    “We have tremendous powers to make it seem to ourselves like it turned out the way we thought it was going to,” said psychologist Michael Kitchens, who is co-leading this year’s study.]

  33. coup de grace???

    McCain is nothing like George W Bush Juliem he deserved it more in 2000 and if he doesnt win he’ll be one of the best losing candidates who would have make great Presidents.

    If as expected Obama wins, politics will have changed to a competition not based on the values of ones ideas but how well somebody speaks and how good a PR campaign they can run. Obama has not run on the issues, Rudd didnt either.

    If he wins Obama’s victory will spell the death of substance over style.

  34. [if he doesnt win he’ll be one of the best losing candidates who would have make great Presidents]

    Can’t agree. The guy has changed positions on so many things, and just seems flaky these days.

  35. And Obama hasn’t?

    Havent you ever heard of compromise something McCain has done by working with both parties???

    When has Obama ever had to compromise other than putting Biden on the ticket!

    Obama has yet to even complete his first term in the Senate and he’s on track to win the election. I for one would laugh if the Bradley effect happened!

  36. Glen

    He had to be nice to Hillary. That was a compromise. 😀

    And Obama has had a huge number of Republicans endorse him, Powell being the most important. They can see his bipartisan potential.

  37. [And Obama hasn’t?]

    Not like McCain, no. The guy is a shadow of his former self in 2000.

    [Havent you ever heard of compromise something McCain has done by working with both parties???]

    He didn’t change his positions to compromise in getting things passed, he did it to try and get elected.

  38. If McCain is so experienced he sure isn’t showing it. I cringe everytime I see him give a speech or make an appearance. Don’t worry though Glen, according to him the Republicans are going to win.

  40. He wasnt nice to Clinton, and he didnt compromise by putting her on the ticket.

    He has no potential to reach across party lines, he has never done it in his short political career why would he do so now.

  41. The media should have done its job and discounted Obama from the get go since he has virtually no experience, but they backed him over Clinton in the primaries, and has since not jumped off the bandwagon.

    I hate to say it but if Obama was not bi-racial he wouldnt have stood a chance against Clinton or anybody else considering how inexperienced he is. But because he is different and can speak well the media fell over backwards to support him.

  45. That was stupid she’s served in the Senate longer than Obama and actually done more whilst she’s been there that counts as experience.

    You gain experience in politics by doing something, not voting present all the time and not drafting bills. Obama is a light weight and the media dont seem to care?

    What has Obama done???
    How the heck did he win the nomination for Senator????

    Obama has the least experience of any Presidential candidate since Lincoln.

  48. Morning everyone – sorry Jules & JJ… my dyslexia is setting in with JJ’s prediction – of course he was referring to another entity’s prediction and not his own. I understand the natural pessimism, and am now suddenly worried about Ohio & Virginia on the Sunday polls and suspect the Missouri/Georgia/Nth Carolina hopes are really just that… oh well, at worst that still means BO should exceed 300?

    Glen, give it a break with the sour grapes? Even though you might be correct about McCain at his core at some point in time in the past, the campaign he has run has been pathetic low-road run-to-the-right Dole ’96 nonsense. Obama’s has been far more consistent and substantive and with more grounding in actual facts than made-up crapola. Its fair enough to question how effective he’s likely to be based on his supposed experience, but its more than fair enough to question how effective Hilary/McCain were likely to be based on the populist/base nonsense they were prepared to trundle out – and on the physical evidence of judgements and decisions made through their campaigns itself… it depends on how you want to define ‘substance’… if its merely by reference to a cv independently of what one is saying now, that’s not a very persuasive argument? I’ll go with consistency, fact-based policy assertions, and erring on the intellectual high-road side as a better indicator of substance – and Obi has more than passed the test here (let alone beat Hilary and JohnnyMac hands down)

  49. Zogby: the hilarity continues

    national
    O: 50.9 (49.5)
    M: 43.8 (43.8)

    Remember that 1 day poll that showed McCain ahead, the latest shows Obama ahead 54-41…hence the tracker creeping up.

    oh and zogby state polls:

    PA
    O: 53.7
    M: 40.0

    OH
    O: 50.2
    M: 43.9

    VA
    O: 50.7
    M: 44.6

    NV
    O: 50.7
    M: 42.9

    FL
    O: 47.5
    M: 46.2

    MO
    O: 47.4
    M: 45.7

    NC
    O: 47.7
    M: 49.3

    IN
    O: 43.9
    M: 49.1

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