Presidential election minus five days

With less than a week ago to the big day, the polls are showing only a fractional narrowing in Barack Obama’s formidable lead. Such narrowing has been enough to move North Carolina to the John McCain column on my polling aggregates while making Indiana line-ball, but Obama is retaining his tight grip on the rust-belt swing states while increasing his lead in Florida. For some local colour, our good friends at UMR Research have produced another poll on Australian views of the contest. It finds Obama’s lead over McCain among Australians has widened still further in the past month, from 66-13 to 72-9.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 54.7 39.4 3005 17
Washington 54.9 40.1 3379 11
Maine 54.5 40.0 2185 4
Minnesota 53.6 41.3 4128 10
Iowa 52.6 41.7 3530 7
Pennsylvania 52.2 41.7 5505 21
New Hampshire 51.7 41.9 3905 4
Wisconsin 51.5 42.1 3490 10
New Mexico 50.5 43.3 2927 5
Colorado 50.6 44.4 4541 9
Ohio 48.6 42.8 4741 20
Virginia 50.7 45.0 4852 13
Nevada 50.0 45.4 3418 5
Florida 48.0 45.2 5429 27
Missouri 47.4 46.5 4050 11
North Dakota 45.5 44.7 1206 3
Indiana 47.1 47.0 4934 11
North Carolina 47.4 48.4 5466 15
Montana 45.0 48.9 3128 3
Georgia 45.6 50.0 3530 15
West Virginia 42.7 51.0 3622 5
Others 175 137
RCP/Total 49.9 43.9 363 175

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

478 comments on “Presidential election minus five days”

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  1. [Haven’t you seen it? It’s the most savage attack I’ve ever seen on someone in their presence, let alone to a President.]

    Had heard about it but not seen it, thanks for that 😀

  2. Oz,

    I reckon if McCain wins you (and the other nine people in the world who thought he could do it) should all get jobs in his Cabinet!

  3. [And as excited as I am to be here with the President, I am appalled to be surrounded by the liberal media that is destroying America, with the exception of FOX News. FOX News gives you both sides of every story: the President’s side, and the Vice President’s side.

    But the rest of you, what are you thinking? Reporting on NSA wiretapping or secret prisons in Eastern Europe? Those things are secret for a very important reason: they’re super-depressing. And if that’s your goal, well, misery accomplished.

    Over the last five years you people were so good, over tax cuts, WMD intelligence, the effect of global warming. We Americans didn’t want to know, and you had the courtesy not to try to find out. Those were good times, as far as we knew.]

  4. Don’t worry, he will win and you lot are all going to have egg on your face come Wednesday.

    I’ll be waving at you on Inauguration Day.

  5. oz, you will have to speak to william on that 😉

    I’m not offering prizes, just a clearing house for keeping track of our picks

    fredn, i already noted (#436) that but thanks anyways :). are you still happy with your 271? 😀

  6. What some left of centre people need to understand is that they do not have the right to say they are right and we are wrong.

    It isnt that simple. The fact is both sides get it right sometimes and they get it wrong sometimes too.

    Obama is no saint so dont go round saying he’s the messiah.
    McCain isnt perfect either.

    The way you bag Fox News you ought to also bag MSNBC but when have we heard you attack them for bias, never.

  7. Grog

    “The reasons he (Obama) beat Hilary are PhD length stuff”

    Firstly Obama won th Democrat Niomineship fullstop and now will be th Democrat POTUS

    However some of th hubris pro Obama posts here today about th Obama/Clinton contest ar absolute contrary to fact

    In reality Nomineeship is decided by winning th mosdt pledged delegates from contested Democrat Primarys (effwectively decided “almost” proportionately

    Obama won th pledged delegate race by a 2% margin That is a close marginal win not a huge win….but a win by any margin is still a win and you get to be Democtat Nominee
    which is why Obama is th Democrat Nominee

    Apart from th close 2% pledged delegate final result , Hillary actualy won th popular vote (by 1%) empohasising how close th contest was Hillary also won ALL of th swing states

    Obama on th other hand got most of his pledged delegates 1/ by winning th most Democrat votes over Hillary in Primarys absolute rock solid “red” States (mainly via 90% of th black vote & th colleged educated set) 2/ by winning “Caucus’s” and again mostly absolute rock solid “red” States 3/ and to a lesser extent winning mostly affluent blue States

    These ar th factual results of what occured So I agree with #432 post

    ps/ would add a note that a guy called Mark Penn got pushed onto Hillary as th campaign manager by th Democrat hierchary experts & of th 100 odd PBers here any of you would hav een clever …at least all of yous would do high school maths working out that to win a pledged delegates race where proportionalitty applies per State you seriously contest all States Primarys & Caucus’s not 60% of them as Mark Penn implimented as your first decision Just proves if you ar not an expert in an area , th supposed experts may be worse than you

    As my first words said , Obama won th Democrat Nonmineeship and will be POTUS , but without revising history

  8. Glen

    We’re hardly going to do your job for you, are we? As long as we don’t say MSNBC aren’t biased everything is sweet.

    And we’re having a great run at the moment with Blair gone, Howard gone and the Repugs dying a horrible death. We’ve had so much pain to deal with the last ten years or so. 🙁

    But there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I can see the LIGHT!!

  9. Ron , I agree – it was damn close, and lots of if onlys and maybes would have seen it go the other way.

    (and there will be lots of PhDs written on it!)

  10. [some left of centre people]

    I never understood that term. “Left” and “right” came into usage before centre. Actually, centrists should be called “right of left” or “left of right”. Communists would be “left of left” and fascists would be “right of right.

    [The way you bag Fox News you ought to also bag MSNBC but when have we heard you attack them for bias, never.]

    Fox News has no comparison to any other media outlet in the world, be it conservative or “liberal”. Well except maybe The Australia.

  11. Fox is more like the West Australian than the Australian.

    Oz, I take it you’re presuming there’s some ‘Bradley effect’ going on then?

  12. Ronster

    [Apart from th close 2% pledged delegate final result , Hillary actualy won th popular vote (by 1% ]

    No, Obama won the popular vote unless you count MI where Obi wasn’t even on the ballot. I’m keeping my eye on you Ron.

  13. juliem, I understand that I’ve picked identically to at least one other person. If a tie-breaker is required, I can offer the following in the category of your choice:
    • Al Franken to win in the Minnesota senate race (by a whisker)
    • Septimus in the Cup
    • Geelong 2009 AFL premiers (sure, this option would take a while to break the tie)
    • Scissors
    • Tails.

  14. Glen @ 459:

    Los Angeles Times July 20 39.0% 51.0% there.

    I sincerely hope you’re taking the piss.

    If not, do you know what cherry-picking is?

  15. [Oz, I take it you’re presuming there’s some ‘Bradley effect’ going on then?]

    Nothing to do with race, I think the Bradley effect is a crock. I just have a feeling that things are going to end up a lot closer than they appear.

    I’m not 100% sure why. Maybe I just don’t trust Americans, the majority of whom believe in magical creatures, to vote for a sensible candidate. I don’t agree with Obama on a few issues but I don’t he’s dumb, evil, selfish or anything that most of us accept is part of the Republican Party.

  16. Glen

    That’s all the more reason to enjoy ourselves while we are up. I think we’ve got about 20 years before another horrible downturn into fascism but how global warming pans out will either bring that forward or delay it considerably.

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