With less than a week ago to the big day, the polls are showing only a fractional narrowing in Barack Obama’s formidable lead. Such narrowing has been enough to move North Carolina to the John McCain column on my polling aggregates while making Indiana line-ball, but Obama is retaining his tight grip on the rust-belt swing states while increasing his lead in Florida. For some local colour, our good friends at UMR Research have produced another poll on Australian views of the contest. It finds Obama’s lead over McCain among Australians has widened still further in the past month, from 66-13 to 72-9.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 54.7 | 39.4 | 3005 | 17 | |
| Washington | 54.9 | 40.1 | 3379 | 11 | |
| Maine | 54.5 | 40.0 | 2185 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 53.6 | 41.3 | 4128 | 10 | |
| Iowa | 52.6 | 41.7 | 3530 | 7 | |
| Pennsylvania | 52.2 | 41.7 | 5505 | 21 | |
| New Hampshire | 51.7 | 41.9 | 3905 | 4 | |
| Wisconsin | 51.5 | 42.1 | 3490 | 10 | |
| New Mexico | 50.5 | 43.3 | 2927 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 50.6 | 44.4 | 4541 | 9 | |
| Ohio | 48.6 | 42.8 | 4741 | 20 | |
| Virginia | 50.7 | 45.0 | 4852 | 13 | |
| Nevada | 50.0 | 45.4 | 3418 | 5 | |
| Florida | 48.0 | 45.2 | 5429 | 27 | |
| Missouri | 47.4 | 46.5 | 4050 | 11 | |
| North Dakota | 45.5 | 44.7 | 1206 | 3 | |
| Indiana | 47.1 | 47.0 | 4934 | 11 | |
| North Carolina | 47.4 | 48.4 | 5466 | 15 | |
| Montana | 45.0 | 48.9 | 3128 | 3 | |
| Georgia | 45.6 | 50.0 | 3530 | 15 | |
| West Virginia | 42.7 | 51.0 | 3622 | 5 | |
| Others | – | – | – | 175 | 137 |
| RCP/Total | 49.9 | 43.9 | – | 363 | 175 |
Just saw on Sky Noos of a flyer being distributed in various communities saying that due to the unprecedented interest in the upcoming US election, to handle the demand of the number of voters, it will be split over two days. Republican voters please turn up November 4, Democrat voters please turn up November 5.
What a disgrace.
So much for the narrowing. The rusted on Repubs watching Fox would be getting a completely wrong picture of what’s actually going on.
Looks like they could be in for a big shock, come Tuesday.
#1 bob
Like I said in an earlier post, the Repubs (and their supporters) will do or say anything to try and cling to power.
There’s nothing very Christian among that bunch of bible bashers.
I made my liquor run today planning ahead for Wednesday. I came home with a bottle of bubbly, Jacob’s Creek Chardonnay Pinot Noir Brut Cuvee.
I thought champagne was in order rather than a plain old bottle of wine 😉 …..
Obama is also winning the shamen vote.
Darn,
And the Dems won’t and don’t?
Puleeeeeze.
Not much Christian charity amongst Obama supporters on this blog either.
Julie @ 4
One Bottle? C’mon! History in the making, get the kids a babysiter and get a box of bubbly in!
Who’s this Christian Charity person?
An Cu @ 7,
I am a relatively low key person and rarely drink alcohol. Trust me, one bottle of bubbly will be plenty enough for me, enough to get to that feeling good state but still able to deal with my children ….. 🙂 🙂 ….. I just need to make sure I’m able to be coherent on the phone, pending my mood I might be making some phone calls back to US relatives but NOT to my deadbeat sister in Missouri. My husband will be in Perth on business so my celebration will be online and over the phone to the US. Reminds me to ask my brother in email what his phone number is 😉 …..
[
Julie Nixon Eisenhower Maxes Out To Obama
By M.J. Rosenberg – October 30, 2008, 2:22PM
I love “Open Secrets” where you can discover if you have any friends who are secret Republicans. (I don’t).
I was looking up one guy I know in the “E’s” and discovered that Julie Nixon Eisenhower, daughter of Richard Nixon and grand-daughter-in-law of Dwight David Eisenhower has maxed out to Barack Obama. Cool.
I guess that isn’t that surprising. President Eisenhower was the guy who warned us against the “military industrial complex” that John McCain has spent a lifetime serving. And Richard Nixon, for all his faults, pretty much invented detente and changed the world by opening relations with China. Julie’s mother, Pat Nixon, was pro-choice and pro-ERA.
Bottom line, Julie Nixon Eisenhower is one of those old-fashioned pre-Lee Atwater/Karl Rove Republicans. It makes sense that she’s out there for Barack. If there are enough like her, we may even carry some states that we don’t expect to carry.
]
Greensborough Growler @ 6
Has a pamphlet been distributed telling Dems to vote Nov 4 and Reps to vote Nov 5?
[Just saw on Sky Noos of a flyer being distributed in various communities saying that due to the unprecedented interest in the upcoming US election, to handle the demand of the number of voters, it will be split over two days. Republican voters please turn up November 4, Democrat voters please turn up November 5.]
This sort of thing happens every U.S. election.
[Not much Christian charity amongst Obama supporters on this blog either.]
Why should you expect Christian charity from people who may not be Christians?
The big moves today on Intrade is that Ohio has become much stronger for Obama, while Missouri and Indiana have moved towards McCain. Ohio is now stronger for Obama than Virginia.
I still think Intrade generally just reflects what the polls say.
Cousins to echo chamber betting sites like Intrade are US newspaper endorsements. Kerry narrowly received more endorsements than “W”, but Obama’s kicking proverbial:
“THURSDAY Tally Of Newspaper Endorsements — Obama Maintains Big Lead at 234-105
By Greg Mitchell and Dexter Hill
Published: October 30, 2008 12:25 PM ET Thursday
NEW YORK (Updated Wednesday) We’re in the homestretch! And the Obama-Biden ticket maintains its strong lead in the race for daily newspaper endorsements. The Democratic team now leads by 234 to 105, a better than 2-1 margin and an even wider spread in the circulation of those papers — see full tally below as of today. The circulation of the Obama-backing papers stands at over 21 million, compared with McCain’s 7 million.”
Link: http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875230
bob,
Is that a segue to talk about ACORN again?
Showson,
My point exactly. Posters ignorantly blathering about something they neither practice nor understand. Apparently, if you know nothing you are in the best position to make judgement on others. It’s the PB disease.
[My point exactly. Posters ignorantly blathering about something they neither practice nor understand]
Why should they? Christianity isn’t compulsory. Also, why should I practice things I don’t understand? Why should I practice things I don’t WANT to understand?
Also, where does telling someone to “GET F#$@*D” fit into the whole “Christian Charity” principle?
GG #6
I might be leading with my chin here, but can you provide some examples of Dem dirty tricks that would match the character assassination the Repubs are trying to do on Obama (and did on John Kerry in 2004).
GG #6
Also, I forgot to mention. I do not claim to be a Christian with Christian values. The majority of the hypocritical Republicans pulling these dirty stunts do.
GG
You don’t have to practise something to criticise it, but you do need to understand it. Almost everyone has a good understanding of “Christian values” as they form most of the basis for community values. Most of our fundie Christian friends are probably lovely people but there is a group whose actions would be reviled by JC if he came back. And those are hypocrites and frauds.
Darn,
Joe the Plumber!
The internet hit sqaud on Hillary.
My point is that despite being a non believer, you seem particularly judgemental of those who are, as evidenced by your stereotypical cliches. Doesn’t take much subtlety or intellectual rigour to put individuals or groups in a box.
ShowsOn,
That’s just the shortened version of the Lord saying “Go forth and multiply”.
Diogenes,
You could say the same about any group in our society depending on your perspective and prejudices.
Darn, is saying they are not influenced by Christian values. You say, “Almost everyone has a good understanding of “Christian values” as they form most of the basis for community values”.
Perhaps the answer is a pineapple.
GG
I think the problem is that Christians have a code of behaviour which is pretty all-inclusive and all-pervading. It’s pretty hard for them to meet their own standards all the time. Us godless atheists don’t have a standard to meet so life’s pretty sweet for us, blamewise. 😀
[That’s just the shortened version of the Lord saying “Go forth and multiply”.]
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHA! OH thy Lord worketh in mysterious ways!
I can’t remember that bit in Thomas Jefferson’s version of the Bible, which is my preferred edition.
[Us godless atheists don’t have a standard to meet so life’s pretty sweet for us, blamewise. :D]
We just have to use regular charity, which is the generic version.
It’s still just as good! It probably comes from the same place – the benefits created by showing compassion to other humans.
jesus taping dancing christ…stfu.
now back to topic
PPP Poll
Colorado (sample of over 2000)
O-54
M-44
senate
Udall (D) 56
Schaffer (R) 41
Dems pulling out the big guns in Floriday, first Bill now Al 🙂 🙂 🙂
[
Report: Al Gore To Campaign For Obama In Florida
By Greg Sargent – October 30, 2008, 9:27AM
Chuck Todd and the gang at MSNBC’s First Read have a nice little scooplet (no link yet):
Tomorrow, according to sources, Al and Tipper Gore will be stumping for Obama in West Palm and Ft. Lauderdale. It’s the first time he’s campaigned in Florida for president since 2000. While he’s campaigned in the Sunshine State since 2000, he’s not done so for a presidential candidate since he himself was running.
The image of Gore in Florida, for obvious reasons, will be a powerful one for rank-and-file Dems. Also note the extraordinary amount of attention that the Obama camp is lavishing on the state in the home stretch.
Bill Clinton was there yesterday with Obama, who holds a rally there this morning, and now Gore tomorrow. You have to imagine that all the Dem activity in this state, which was supposed to be an easy win for McCain, is rattling the McCain team like nothing else.
Late Update: Gore spokesperson Kalee Kreider emails to confirm that the events are indeed set to go.
]
Via Mumble, this is a ballot paper in this election.
http://www.jcolomer.blogspot.com/
Virginia = Win: North Carolina = landslide
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/30/15436/389/824/647015
I’m interested to see if Obama’s ‘infomercial’ generates any form of bounce in the tracking polls.
I guess we will only know that when the trackers are released on Sunday U.S. time.
Expat Follower
#964
“I would dearly like to see Ron and the amigos’ predictions – would settle for them identifying who it is they would actually vote for on Tue!”
Expat Follower , I will giv a view
MARGIN: Obama has won th electon with 291 e/v’s guaranteed based on months trends There ar 5 States that ar reely marginal but for diferent reasons , including demographics , querys over th acuracy of likely voters being understated , a Bradley but a higher reverse Bradley will occur also , & some polls sampling is questioned
Obama could just exced 370 e/v’s but only if everything fell his way in those 5 & if my suspicion that likely voters ar underestimated by pollstars by about 1% is correct In particular MO , IN and NC with 37 e/v’s ar all two marginal to definitely call & affect th margin Now to clinb beyond just over 370 needs GA & WV & I nebver thought either would switch from ‘red’ , whilst ND tink is quite unlikely , and 338 th most likeley minimim outcome
ON VOTING: Most Obama supporters on this Site for 4 months hav prety well ‘demanded’ all “left” people must fully support Obama & therefore hav posted abuse & false innuendo against any ‘left’ person who for valid reasons doesn’t do so
Notwithstanding I find US politcs and US political Partys a disappointment & very unlike ‘oz’ So I would not hav supported Jimmy Carter either because he was a grossly imperfect Democrat & ditto Obama both on his character defects and policy deficiencys
As for McCain , well I could not vote for him anyway due to his idealoliogy based especially domestic policys However McCain has many admirable attritubutes & skills Obama lacks and was an able Legislator , but has been a major disappointment in both his campaign judgement & in not remaining th ‘maverick’ he actually is
REASON for Obama’s win Yes I agree with your bailout comments on McCain Well past th 2 convention bounses & about 2 weeks past Palin’s appointment ….ie when voters actualy had to face deciding now that th 2 convention glitz had died out , McCain then on th stat trends was a tie/just in front of Obama for 1.5 weeks before th Bailout on 20/9/08
Bush’s foolish announcement of th $800 billion bailout rather than making it a joint Congress matter meant Republicans “owned” th bailout & its cause and destroyed Republicon brand totally & therefore McCain’s chances (and th strong poll trends reversal immediately & thereafter TO Obama demonstrate that)
Th SMALL chanse for McCain of escaping that odorous “ownership” was destroyed by McCain himself , by his naively returning to Wasdhington to “get it passed” whereas Obama smartly sat pat & let th Pelosi brigade cleverly continue to sticky tape th bailout solely to th Republican brand (& thus also to McCain)
Voters DID want a change from republicans , “its time” was always under there in 2008 , voters did want a Democrat …..but pre Bailout proved lots of swingers were uneasy with Obama meaning if th electon was held THEN pre bailout it would hav been a cliff hanger , and certainley pure speculation whaty would hav been 10 weeeks later on Nov 5 as that’s theoretical dynamics Perhaps th bailout was aussie karma
PREDICTION I expect Obama’s presidency to be a MASSIVE victory of style & oratory over substanase and outcomes especialy in FA
I predict 4 years of hystericol lauding of Obama by th progressive Obamamedia but that may be more a comparative diference to th predessor George Bussh’s corupt , exclusive , illegal & militaristic reign I do expect however broadly better relatoions with th EU & some but not all less developed countries but when one looks at FA specifics then Obama comes up ‘lite’ on detail and generaly typically US first
It is in this sense only I perhaps understand a FA benefit of even an Abama over a further Republicon (whereas a Gore , Hillary or Edwards would hav given us a fair dinkum Kyoto at th minimum (and not Obama’s crummy GED13) , plus also th first 2 Democrats probably achieving a fair result finaly on Palestine)
Kerry states in the bag + Iowa + Colorado + New Mexico + Virginia + Ohio – 286 ECV at 100% probability, imo.
Will add Ohio + Nevada to make it 311 (90%)
Throw in Florida and we’re at 338 (80%)
North Carolina makes it 353 (70%)
Missouri probably just under 50% (364)
Indiana around 40% (375)
North Dakota, West Virginia, Georgia, Montana all around 25% (401)
Who thinks I am off massively anywhere here (maybe a bit pessimistic on Missouri and ff)?
Hey Ron – appreciate your response. I think we’re in agreement on McCain, but I hold out a little more hope for Obama that you… but his ability to withstand the pentup Dem congress agenda in favour of the reasonable stuff (health, tax, energy) will be key? I think he’s got every chance of being as effective as Hilary would have been – she also would be winning this comfortably, and must feel just terrible at her campaign’s shortcomings and the opportunity missed? Mind you, gotta give Obi some credit for winning the nom as well…
So, it sounds like if you had to cast a ballot it would be for Nader or the Green Lady whose name temporarily escapes me (pure guesswork)?
Where to for the republicans? Palin has a niche with 25% of the population but maybe 50+% of what remains of the republican base… how orgasmic would Obi be if thats who he was up against in 2012?! Huckabee a better bet within this segment, perhaps.
I rarely agree with Glen, but the Arnold Vinick type is about the only hope for them next time around… Romney #1 might have been this type, but the flip-flopping he had to do to be competitive for the nomination this time around surely has damaged him.
An Obama – Romney (as Mass govenor) race would have been quite interesting at these times of economic stress… don’t you think?
[ON VOTING: Most Obama supporters on this Site for 4 months hav prety well ‘demanded’ all “left” people must fully support Obama & therefore hav posted abuse & false innuendo against any ‘left’ person who for valid reasons doesn’t do so]
Incorrect. I for one have simply asked you to define what “core ‘left’ policys” actually means. You constantly fail to do so, so I have absolutely no idea why you think Obama is an unsuitable centre-left candidate.
sorry in #30 above the 100% shouldn’t have double-mentioned Ohio – am suggesting 95% there…
90% there – goddamn the dyslexia is setting in (sorry guys)
Ignoring Ron’s failure to define “core-left” policies, I’m a left-wing person and I’m not as big a fan of Obama as most people here for that exact reason.
I do agree that he’s pretty “liberal” in American terms and enormously better than McCain/Palin but that’s not a particularly high bar.
Please note that this is entirely my own opinion however I am sure that there are several criticisms of Obama coming from the left as well as the right. But we must all be realists in the end.
Shows On, to be fair to Ron, he’s pretty consistently criticised Obama on Kyoto (I’m not au fait enough to pass judgement on whether this is truly important of itself, but it is definitely arguable as an attack from the left?)
On Palestine, this is newer… I suspect this is an argument more around effectiveness than policy diff with Hilary? Not so sure I’d agree… depends on who the real hard-to-budge party here is. The more one believes its the Palestinians, one might think the more likely good ol Hussein could persuade them??
Zogby Obama 50-43
GG
You have to be nice to us evil atheists tonight because tonight is OUR night. Halloween. We promise to be nice to you tomorrow on All Saint’s Day.
Trick or treat? 👿
Expat,
Unfortunately, the Kyoto argument doesn’t pass the smell test. Obama can’t say that he’d ratify anything, as he’d need the support of Congress to get it through, and even if the Dems picked up the filibuster proof majority, there’s enough Southern Dems to see it get caught up in red tape.
It also wouldn’t achieve anything apart from put a larger financial burden on the US. There’s no way they could achieve a reduction on 1990 levels of 7% between 2008 and 2012. Between 1990 and 2006 they had a 15% increase, so over the next 3 years they’d require a reduction of 32% over this year’s levels to meet their targets!
In a recession, they’d be nuts to sign up to Kyoto, and given the financial burden they’d lump themselves with for any future agreements; they’d end up doing massive damage to next year’s Copenhagen talks.
So funny watching the US stations now, trying to beef up the idea that they’re going to be up for a few late nights before the election is decided. Even MSNBC is on board. “McCain is probably going to win Ohio, Florida and Virginia, and when he does, we know we’ll be up all night”.
Well, well, well. What a surprise!! Those poor little Georgians who stood up so very bravely to the big nasty commies from Russia committed a few little “war crimes”. And they managed to do it without the US’s help, which must really hurt McCain’s feelings.
[The BBC has discovered evidence that Georgia may have committed war crimes in its attack on its breakaway region of South Ossetia in August.
Eyewitnesses have described how its tanks fired directly into an apartment block, and how civilians were shot at as they tried to escape the fighting.
Research by the international investigative organisation Human Rights Watch also points to indiscriminate use of force by the Georgian military, and the possible deliberate targeting of civilians.
Indiscriminate use of force is a violation of the Geneva Conventions, and serious violations are considered to be war crimes. ]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7692751.stm
Fox: “Obama is reportedly already picking the drapes for the Oval Office and has spoken to designers about a custom made desk”. How old is the “choosing the drapes already” call? The sad thing is, they’re serious.
[“McCain is probably going to win Ohio, Florida and Virginia, and when he does, we know we’ll be up all night”.]
WTF!? Those three states are all leaning Obama, Virginia is leaning so much it has nearly fallen over.
If they said Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina then they would have a point. But they are all in the 2nd tier of states now, Obama called lose those three and still win easily.
injuddstree
The networks big problem is that VA is the equal first to report. 95% sure Obama will win that. 24 polls in a row in front. That means it’s all over in 30 minutes.
A talking head on Fox has a theory. Apparently those people who are saying they are undecided aren’t really undecided at all. They have decided they won’t be voting for Obama, but aren’t telling anyone. :Therefore McCain will probably win.
Makes good sense to me. I think he also said something about the earth really being flat. .
I’m dead serious, a few on the morning show on MSNBC are actually saying that Ohio, Florida and Virginia will all “move red” on election day, and how they will be “up late”. Ive heard them say “tight” about 7 times. Now, I think McCain will hold Florida, but all 3?
Expat Follower
For your benefit as you haven’t been a regular poster , on th last thread I posted about ‘core left’ policys but as I forshadowed at th time , th progressives naturaly didn’t like it because there core priorities ar different …..so they now claim i didn’t explain rather than argue against them as core
I referred to Chifleys ‘lite on th hill’ comments and not just th words but th implicit social sprectrum of what he said and th implicit obligations & priority they involved in Labor principals …AND that universal healthcare & freedom of association as Unionists were examples
Apart from my posts on Kyoto (whereas Gore , Hillary & Edwards do support Kyoto ratification & Obama does not support Kyoyo ratification Whether or not a POTUS then can get Congress to approve it is a red herring , Obama HIMSELF does NOT support ratifying Kyoto …so its a copeout for his Obama supporters to use congrssas an excuse for his lack of belief & conviction of Kyoto (Obama is guaranteeing th Chinese & Indians who DID ratify Kyoto pull out of Kyoto ..where does that leave CC)
I’ve also made over 100 posts mentioning Obama does not hav a universal healthcare policy (whereas Edwards & Hillary did) …and one can not get much more “core left” than th health of th planet and th health of your sick kids when you’ve poor & got no money to get them badly needed medical
I’ve also mentioned numerously that Edwards , Hillary etc support a Keynes big governenmt strong direct Govt regulaton & non unfettered free market Again core left Whilst Obama supports a free market economic rationist model thats behavourably nuanced on regulation & market competition etc
Then there ar other domestic policys including taxes and capital gains taxes on homes
If one wants to go to social issues : Obama supports death death even if no murder was involved (NO) , does NOT suport public funding of elections (NO) Obama is first Democrat or Republican to do so since 1972 , supports no medical assistance for viable babys born from an abortion (NO) , supports consevative Supreme court for Exxon over th Valdex Alaskan environmetnal oil spill eco disastor (NO) , supports consevative Supreme court OVERTURNING an existing Washington City Law banning hand guns (NO) & against th minority ‘left’ Judges , supports expanded Bush social spending on religious based Organizations which breachs separation of State & Church (NO) , now supports part offshore oil drilling in protected waters (NO)
But universal healthcare , Big govenment involvement economics and CC will do anyway as Obama not having ‘core left’ policys , unlike John Edwards
HAHAHAHA. Cindy and Meaghan McCain are on Fox now.
“So I hear these days that all the youths are voting for Obama… Meaghan, you’re a youth with a blog, what are your latest observations, do you have a different view on that?”
L.
O.
L.
death death penalty
[priority they involved in Labor principals …AND that universal healthcare & freedom of association as Unionists were examples]
Where have you read Obama say that he doesn’t support freedom of association? Especially after he was endorsed by some of the biggest labour unions in the U.S.?
[Apart from my posts on Kyoto (whereas Gore , Hillary & Edwards do support Kyoto ratification & Obama does not support Kyoyo ratification]
This is utter nonsense. Plus it is besides the point utter nonsense, it is the NEXT agreement that is of critical importance now.
[I’ve also mentioned numerously that Edwards , Hillary etc support a Keynes big governenmt strong direct Govt regulaton & non unfettered free market Again core left Whilst Obama supports a free market economic rationist model thats behavourably nuanced on regulation & market competition etc]
More nonsense. Edwards and Clinton (and Bill Clinton) were both centrist Democrats economically, That is why they were in the New Democratic caucus. Obama is further to the left than both of them on economics.
Of course Clinton, Obama, and Edwards are all economic rationalists. What would you prefer them to be, irrational?
[But universal healthcare , Big govenment involvement economics and CC will do anyway as Obama not having ‘core left’ policys , unlike John Edwards]
John Edwards cheated on his wife who has cancer, so I have no idea why he should be considered the height of personal responsibility.
Face it Ron, your reasons for opposing Obama are utter nonsense based around misrepresentation of what he actually believes. Why the McCain campaign didn’t pick you up I have no idea.
Ron, Hillary’s policy from the primary was that she would promptly commit to a “Kyoto Protocol Round II” in 2010 (the proposed Copenhagen resolution). She supported ratifying Kyoto when she was elected to the Senate in 2000, but even she realises that ratifying it at this stage is futile.
From a speech she gave in November 2007:
[The President’s failed unilateral energy policy is a part of our failed unilateral foreign policy. It’s deprived us of the credibility and the leverage we need to solve the climate crisis. I’ll change that by leading the process to develop a new treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which is set to expire in 2012.
One of the worst messages the President sent was when he took office and rejected completely Kyoto. He could have said we don’t like Kyoto but we’re immediately starting a new process. But that didn’t happen.
Well, come January 2009, I’m sending a different message. I want to act quickly to help develop a new treaty. I will engage in high level meetings with leaders around the world every three months, if that’s what it takes to hammer out a new agreement. My goal will be to secure a deal by 2010. We can’t wait for two more years.]