Presidential election minus 26 days

I’ve added a new item of methodology for state polling aggregates: as many days’ worth of polling will be included from a given state as is necessary to produce a sample of more than 3000. The base line remains October 1. Apart from that, polls are being adjusted to incorporate the shift in the Real Clear Politics national average since the time they were conducted. Two developments are worth noting. We have a new swing state in West Virginia, where an American Research Group survey shows Obama with a shock 50-42 lead. This reverses the result from the last poll in the state (by Rasmussen) on September 24, so it should be treated with caution for the time being. Conversely, another American Research Group survey has McCain leading 49-46 in Missouri, which cuts Obama’s aggregate lead there from 2.2 per cent to 0.2 per cent.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 54.4 39.1 1031 17
Iowa 54.8 39.8 692 7
Pennsylvania 53.3 38.6 3142 21
Washington 53.9 42.0 700 11
New Hampshire 53.4 41.6 2760 4
West Virginia 50.9 40.4 600 5
Wisconsin 52.1 41.7 2641 10
Minnesota 51.2 41.3 3673 10
Virginia 51.6 42.5 3183 13
Colorado 50.6 42.8 3441 9
Florida 51.1 43.7 3125 27
New Mexico 47.7 40.6 1159 5
Maine 51.9 45.0 500 4
Nevada 50.8 44.6 1768 5
North Carolina 49.3 44.7 3736 15
Ohio 48.5 45.1 3418 20
Missouri 48.9 46.6 1600 11
Indiana 45.6 47.4 1977 11
Others – – – 175 158
RCP/Total 49.9 42.3 – 369 169

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

905 comments on “Presidential election minus 26 days”

Comments Page 3 of 19
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  1. Adam says:

    Imagine if it was learned that McCain sat on a …

    Stop right there. This is nothing but a strawman.

    Paul Begala discovered exactly such an association and decided it wasn’t worthy of inclusion in his anti-McCain book!

  2. [Rudd went to a dinner Brian Burke was at, along with lots of other people – not quite the same as “having dinner with him.” Anyway associating with Burke was a bipartisan failing. And Burke may (or may not) be a crook but he’s never been a terrorist as far as I know.]

    So this is only an issue because it was an association to a ‘terrorist’? And McCain’s USCWF links then? Lemme guess… not ‘terroristy’ enough?

  3. [this is only an issue because it was an association to a ‘terrorist’?]
    Yes. And not a ‘terrorist’ with quotes, an actual real live terrorist, you know, one who planted bombs in buildings.

    What is USCWF?

  4. a dinner with or more accurately in same room as a crooked businessman (Rudd/Burke) is suggested as 1/ equating a crooked businessman (Burke) equal status to a repeated Terrorist (Ayers) and who would that seriously …

    and more importantley 2/ a one only dinner (Rudd/ Burke) and 8 years close multiple asociationS (Obama/Ayers )…and what equating th 2 “relationships as th same is plain nonsense , Obama supporters arguemebts ar now just hitting key pads just so there “appears” to be a “rebutal”

    .
    You know I posted alot of info in #9 , #20 and # 35 that William Ayers 1/ was a terrorist and 2/ had not recanted

    Yet NO Obama rusted supporters can even acknowedge that , before one even discusses Obama’s asociation with william Ayers , Obama rusted supporters reely lacks complete objectivty for there candidates failings on charater , policys and his lies

    And is completely clouded by emotional fervour to hav no Republican after th Bush fiasco , and hence william ayers is amnother of th Obama rusted denial of reality as if it does not exist And th US Liberal hav followed suit

    Both candidates ar duds , that would be a good objective starting on evidence (athough thats why I declared as informal a a month ago)

  5. [What is USCWF?]

    Prehaps if you followed some of the links posted several times you might find out, but given that like Ron you only seem interested in rooting out Obama’s associations I doubt you will.

  6. Ron
    Ive been on the FBI,CIA website
    no mention of ayers,
    nada,zilch,zero nothing
    please supply a link that defines ayers as a terrorist

  10. So Rasmussen unchanged, Hotline and Zogby both up 1 for Obama. The negative campaigning doesn’t seem to be having much of an impact on a national level so far.

  14. [btw, that GWU Battelground poll is up a whopping 5 points for Obama from yesterday]
    Doesn’t that one tend to be all over the place?

    Or does it have a smaller tracking ‘window’, and is thus detecting a positive influence from Obama’s debate performance?

  15. [Doesn’t that one tend to be all over the place?

    Or does it have a smaller tracking ‘window’, and is thus detecting a positive influence from Obama’s debate performance?]

    Yeah, its a much smaller sample than the others (800 vs 3000)

  16. What drugs is the McCain campaign on?:
    [Ms Palin also raised Mr Ayers on conservative pundit Laura Ingraham’s radio talk show, saying Senator Obama had not told the “total truth” about an “unrepentant domestic terrorist” as the campaign debuted a hard-hitting negative advertisement on the issue.]

    Why would McCain or Palin bother spending ANY time on conservative radio when they are so far behind in the polls? They need to appeal to independents and centrist voters. I don’t understand how preaching to the converted will help them win from here.

    Their campaign will go down as the worst since Bush I, or maybe since Jimmy Carter’s re-election campaign.

  18. Obama rusted supporters hav been shot down today with infoirmation supplied in posts #745 other thread ,#9 , #20 and #35 demonstrating William Ayers is a Terorist & has not recanted …so they hav initialy avoided th subject , then lamely denied Ayers is a terorist , then well he’s not a reel bad terorist ! , then lamely just pretended Ayers did not exist by just then ignoring William Ayers ….despite th mountain of info supplied….

    … then next ridiculously tried to tie Brian burke to Rudd one only dinner in th same room as if its th same as Obama/Ayers multple close relationships over many years (well #104 easily demolished that)

    ..and now what , wishing to define what is a terorist , well if posters want to say th actions listed in #9 , #20 and #35 do NOT constitute a Terorist then just say so !!
    or ar Obama defenders afraid to say they ar or ar not actions of a terrorist
    and I await let me know whether those actions constitute a terorist or a non terorist in your opinion

    Obama rusted supporters credibility could hav been somewhat saved by acknowleging my posts info …but then yous knew where that was going to lead (with quotes from me )…yes to Obama (& Obama’s questionable judgement , decency standards & lack of convictions) Would hav been better t say notwuithstanding he is still better than mcCain but Obama rusted on fervently believe in Obama’s character perfect , non questionable associations , poor policys & convictions

    That Obama supporters anti Bush fervour and anti republican zealotary clouds all else including objectivity & impartial readers may see that (and yes as I’e said McCain is a dud also but that is more obvious)

    GARRY BRUCE
    Well think your a different Obama supporter frankly a ar a number of others compard to fervent Obama rusted who post here regulatrly So far my posts hav been falsely challenged by Obama rusted today on what William Ayers was & what Wlliam Ayers has since said since 1994

    So I haven’t got anywhere near discussing th nexus etc of Obama/Ayers and frankly that link is very shallow on info on it & in many respects void on it altogether Perhaps I’ll get to that info , however as I said to Centre my arguments ar based on Obama’s questionable attritubes thats partly (apart from Obama’s poor policys etc) why I don’t suport Obama….

    nor indeed don’t support McCain either( McCain also has some poor attritbutes i admit but they ar differnt ones also) & don’t like McCains poor Republican policys & ‘right’ ideas

  19. [Obama rusted supporters credibility could hav been somewhat saved by acknowleging my posts info ]
    I acknowledge your posts Ronster; I just don’t a) care about them or b) find them very convincing.

  20. ShowsOn, I think some of it might have to with not only convincing them that they’re better than Obama, but they’re so good that it’s worth taking time off work and actually bothering to vote.

  22. [ShowsOn, I think some of it might have to with not only convincing them that they’re better than Obama, but they’re so good that it’s worth taking time off work and actually bothering to vote.]

    Yeah, well they are pretty screwed if they are trying to appeal to their base at this point.

  23. [What’s the deal with those people in the gallery who applaud when the bell rings on Wall Street?]
    Maybe they were relieved the market didn’t drop by 20%?

    I have always thought it would suck if you were the person who ‘closed’ the market on a day it dropped by a record amount. Is there anyway to say “thanks for the honour, but no thanks.”

  24. I think what happens is that every day someone else from the business community gets to ring the bell, and it’s kind of a big deal. So they invite all their friends and they clap and cheer as they open the trade.

  25. [What’s the deal with those people in the gallery who applaud when the bell rings on Wall Street?]

    It’s tradition. They get someone new in to open the market every day. Usually high achievers or famous people. Not sure I’d want to be invited at the moment…

  27. [It’s tradition. They get someone new in to open the market every day. Usually high achievers or famous people. Not sure I’d want to be invited at the moment…]
    I think Costello did it once.

  29. And if you listen to this guy Paul Krugman the grim reaper will be the next one up to ring the bells if something isn’t done in the next few days.

    The consequences of Lehman’s fall were apparent within days, yet key policy players have largely wasted the past four weeks. Now they’ve reached a moment of truth: They’d better do something soon — in fact, they’d better announce a coordinated rescue plan this weekend — or the world economy may well experience its worst slump since the Great Depression.

    Let’s talk about where we are right now.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/opinion/10krugman.html?hp

  30. 121,

    They always cheer at the bell closing WallStreet for the day. This isn’t peculiar to the current trend. It has always been so as far as I know.

  32. William,

    When a company becomes publicly listed on the New York Stock Exchange, the custom is that they get to ring the bell to open the days trade. I know this because my company became publicly listed just over a year ago and we all got to watch video footage of our CEO ringing the bell.

    It’s also used for product launches and PR shoots by many companies, and sometimes charities.

  34. Ron

    Isn’t being a terrorist illegal, ie. the police come and lock you up with or without a subsequent trial? How is it then that Bill Ayres is not in jail? In fact, has he ever been tried and convicted of terrorism?

    And what is the criteria labelling him as one of America’s worst terrorists? No. of deaths? No. of people fearful for their lives? No. of years on the run?

    And what terrorist supporting actions or statements has he made since the mid 90’s?

    It’s about time we put some perspective on this fetish you appear to have with Obama and Ayres.

  35. Ron
    Posted Saturday, October 11, 2008 at 1:32 am | Permalink

    “Obama rusted supporters hav been shot down today with infoirmation supplied in posts”

    So this terrorist has never been to jail, further in the period in question the national guard actually shot some students, something I doubt the average American likes to be reminded of.

    And this nonsense is what the McCain camp expect to get re-elected on. They are truly stuffed.

  37. Ron

    I have often agreed with your posts in the past but I think you have gone too far with the Obama/Ayres thing. You keep repeating the same points over and over again. They are invariably the standard repubican talking points being used in the US campaign. I was a Clinton supporter and recognise that both McCain and Obama have deep personal faults. To those who say that teh best candidates on both sides aren’t runign I would agree. But there seems no balance in your position; you just find any way to attack your target, and ignore any criticism of your preference. There is no point engaging with anyoen whod oes that, so this is the last time I’ll be commenting on your posts before the US election.

    So lets put all this aside. The POTUS race must elect not just a person, but an administration that can deal with the current problems of the US and the world. I think its fairly plain that the MCain/Palin (Gram) is both intellectually and ideologically unable to do so. Obama can’t either, but like Bill Clinton, he knows his limitations and has economic advisors in tow who can. I think that makes it a fairly simple choice, in favour of Obama. The clear majority of independant voters have formed a similar view over the past few weeks. Obama will win, and McCain lose, whether rusted on republicans like it or not. Given the abuses of power that party has been responsible for over the past 8 years, I think that is a good outcome for democracy.

  38. juliem

    Those 32% less likely to vote for Obama because of Rudd are the Repug base. It’s the Independents who matter. And they hate this Ayers stuff. This is from the Politico article about how ugly the Repug rallies are becoming as the fascist cretins vent their frustration that they are going to lose to a black liberal.

    [“And from a purely practical political vantage point, please find me a swing voter, an undecided independent, or a torn female voter that finds an angry mob mentality attractive.” ]

  39. [so this is the last time I’ll be commenting on your posts before the US election]

    A wise move

    [The POTUS race must elect not just a person, but an administration that can deal with the current problems of the US and the world]

    Precisely. Why McCain isn’t attacking Obama on economic issues (whether he has a percieved weakness there or not) I just don’t understand.

    Now they are trying to link Obama to a community voter registration group ACORN who had a guy busted for 100 dodgy registration forms or something. More of the same tenuous stuff… I can’t see it going anywhere.

  40. Further to my prevous post, upon reflection, the current credit crisis illustrates the folly of the Bush administration’s aproach to government. First there is cronyism, shaping rules and policy tosuit friends and backers, on the assumtion that there will always be enough fat in the economy to cover this loss. Sometimes, like now, there is not enough fat to cover the loss and real damage is done. Second, the move towards unilateralism assumes that policy can be dictated to others without consequence. This reduces the ability of the world to reach commonly agreed solutions. For international trade adn finance commonly agreed solutions are needed. Everyone is eventually made worse off when powerful nations go down the unilateral road. Whether or not Bush created this crisis (I think he was partly responsible but not fully) he has created a situation which makes it much harder to fix.

    On a brighter note, this crisis does bring opportnities. There will be a much needed overhaul of corrupted financial systems, including rating agencies, financial fees, salaries for executives and financiers, and interest rates returning to what is reasonable for average home owners. The need for governmetn investment to stimulate teh economy also creates the right time to invest in some of the solutions to our long term problems, such as water infrastructure, public transport and clean energy.

  41. Get this… now the McCain camp is defending those supporters who yelled out “kill him” etc. Freaking unbelievable.

    [McCain senior adviser Nicolle Wallace released this statement, NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell reports. “Barack Obama’s assault on our supporters is insulting and unsurprising. These are the same people obama called ‘bitter’ and attacked for ‘clinging to guns’ and faith. He fails to understand that people are angry at corrupt practices in Washington and Wall Street and he fails to understand that America’s working families are not ‘clinging’ to anything other than the sincere hope that Washington will be reformed from top to bottom.”]

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/10/1529529.aspx

  42. What a surprise! John McCain’s drug addicted thieving wife has continued to work with Keating. Remember the reason she became a drug addict was because of the stress of the Keating 5 disclosure about her husband. McCain is reaping what he’s sewn. Now we know why she refused to disclose her tax returns.

    [Sen. John McCain’s wife and father-in-law continued a lucrative business partnership with disgraced financier Charles H. Keating Jr. for 11 years after the GOP presidential nominee said he ended his close friendship with Keating in March 1987.]

    http://washingtonindependent.com/11806/cindy

  43. Dario

    Yes that is indeed disturbing. I find uncomfortable parallels with Netinyahu’s pandering to extreme right wing Jewish groups in the lead up to the assasination of Rubin in the 1990s. Nobody then would have said Rubin was going to be shot, but there were enough crackpots in Israel for that assumption to be wrong. There are certainly enough crackpots in the US to be concerned.

  44. It’s just pandering to their base and alienating everyone else. With the diminishing Republican registrations that is just a recipe for a landslide, and a total loss of credibility…

  46. Dario,

    [
    Precisely. Why McCain isn’t attacking Obama on economic issues (whether he has a percieved weakness there or not) I just don’t understand.
    ]

    I read an article today describing McCain’s problem along these lines. The reporter/blogger described it as populism vs policy. I.e if McCain had chosen policy (lined himself up with conservative and Reaganeque ideals) he would have much more of a leg to stand on than choosing populism (claiming himself as a maverick and out for change in Washington). I’m not convinced that the policy approach would make any difference in the polls except perhaps to bring them closer and make us lefties more worried. In the current economic climate, the Republicans are screwed any which way they cut it.

    http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/10/10/populism-and-policy/

  47. Ronster

    Read it and weep. Andy at electoral-vote agrees with me about RCP being openly McCain supporters. And you have always said he was fair. God I love being right!

    [Even very overtly Republican Websites like Real Clear Politics and Election Projection have Obama at 277 and 364 electoral votes, respectively.]

  48. It is infact a good sign that the reougs are reverting to Ayers-type attacks because 1. it alienates the independents and undecideds
    2. it shows they have NOTHING left to argue
    3. Obama has been through all of this in the primaries and won

  49. There’s a good article on EV as part of that. They question why the independent sites all have Obama winning yet the “liberal” MSM sites don’t. It’s awfully like the last election here.

    [Maybe they are afraid of being accused of pro-Obama bias (probably). Maybe they are just biased toward McCain (possibly). Maybe they just suck at electoral forecasting (definitely). Maybe they are invested in a close campaign (absolutely). Whatever it is, you would be well served to never, ever listen to big media for election forecasts and horserace information. They just don’t have it. Stick to the small media independent websites, since we pretty only exist because the big media websites suck so bad at this stuff. So much information is publicly available now that a few nerds obsessed with poll numbers are much better sources for election information than you will every get from big media. The lack of depth in horserace coverage on major news websites is actually how I discovered the blogosphere myself back in 2002.]

    http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=16AE5E72EE66F64BCDA37B4B70262523?diaryId=8971

  50. Following from my email if anyone is interested ….

    [
    Dear Julie,

    We invite you to watch a special event with Michelle Obama that will be streamed live today at http://www.barackobama.com/live.

    Our live streams let you watch major campaign events as they happen — without interruptions.

    Please forward this email to anyone you know who would like to watch Michelle’s event live online.

    Today’s event (start times appear as scheduled but may be subject to delay):

    Event with Michelle Obama
    Chicago, IL
    5:40 p.m. CDT

    Watch now: http://www.barackobama.com/live

    Thanks,

    Obama for America
    ]

    5:40pm central time is in 5 minutes …….

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