Presidential election minus 26 days

I’ve added a new item of methodology for state polling aggregates: as many days’ worth of polling will be included from a given state as is necessary to produce a sample of more than 3000. The base line remains October 1. Apart from that, polls are being adjusted to incorporate the shift in the Real Clear Politics national average since the time they were conducted. Two developments are worth noting. We have a new swing state in West Virginia, where an American Research Group survey shows Obama with a shock 50-42 lead. This reverses the result from the last poll in the state (by Rasmussen) on September 24, so it should be treated with caution for the time being. Conversely, another American Research Group survey has McCain leading 49-46 in Missouri, which cuts Obama’s aggregate lead there from 2.2 per cent to 0.2 per cent.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 54.4 39.1 1031 17
Iowa 54.8 39.8 692 7
Pennsylvania 53.3 38.6 3142 21
Washington 53.9 42.0 700 11
New Hampshire 53.4 41.6 2760 4
West Virginia 50.9 40.4 600 5
Wisconsin 52.1 41.7 2641 10
Minnesota 51.2 41.3 3673 10
Virginia 51.6 42.5 3183 13
Colorado 50.6 42.8 3441 9
Florida 51.1 43.7 3125 27
New Mexico 47.7 40.6 1159 5
Maine 51.9 45.0 500 4
Nevada 50.8 44.6 1768 5
North Carolina 49.3 44.7 3736 15
Ohio 48.5 45.1 3418 20
Missouri 48.9 46.6 1600 11
Indiana 45.6 47.4 1977 11
Others – – – 175 158
RCP/Total 49.9 42.3 – 369 169

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

905 comments on “Presidential election minus 26 days”

Comments Page 2 of 19
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  1. Any non Obamabot reading my posts #619 & #745 prior thread and #9 , #20 and #35 colectively can readily see th MOUNTAIN of public evidence on William Ayers …

    and your ‘playing with words’ :
    denying first that William Ayers was not one of worst terorists , and then
    .
    that Ayers meant terror death & ‘didn’t kill anyone’ (Fort Dix innocent hundreds oh so lucky ) and
    .
    that William Ayers hasn’t recanted ,
    .
    in th face of such masive information shows your total partisan Obama bias , and then when my evisence left you in a corner even to protect “th name” of & take th word of a terrorist… ALTHOUGH despite his own book’s admission !) ,
    for mine you hav no credibility

  2. McCain has obviously been told not to raise Ayers himself, because then the Dems will hit hom over his links with Charles Keating.

    But that’s not really relevant to the issue of what Obama’s association with Ayers says about Obama’s judgement.

  4. I wouldn’t say Ayers was “one of the worst terrorists,” but he was a terrorist, and it was only luck that he didn’t kill anyone. He was certainly reckless about the chances of killing people. And he has never expressed any regret for those actions.

    So the question is still not answered: when did Obama learn these facts about Ayers? Why did he not sever his connection with him when he learned them?

  5. OOOOHHH, Obama is a terrorist. Don’t vote for Obama.

    I’ll tell you who the real terrorists are between Bush and his crony nutso right wing repugs!

  6. AS to Obama’s associations and lies of his association WITH Ayers himself , i will be detailing those …plius other Ayers & others quotes

  7. Diog, it’s not me but Mr, Joseph Needham.

    [Why did China’s scientific innovation, once so advanced, suddenly collapse? A British academic made this question his life’s work. FEW people, other than scholars, will be familiar with the story of the Cambridge don whose study of China’s scientific history helped to change the West’s appraisal of a civilisation once thought hopelessly backward. By the time Joseph Needham died in 1995, he had published 17 volumes of his “Science and Civilisation in China” series, including several that he wrote entirely on his own.]

    http://www.economist.com/books/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11496751

    Title: The Man Who Loved China (USA& Canada) – Bomb, Book and Compass – UK
    Author: Simon Winchester
    Genre: Biography
    Written: 2008
    Length: 265 pages

    [“Despite Winchester’s extraordinary narrative skills, he gets some details wrong. (…) In retelling Needham’s story, Winchester focuses on the inventiveness of the Chinese people, whose creativity once surpassed that of all other civilizations. If this resourcefulness can be renewed and harnessed in the service of sustainability, then perhaps there is hope not only for China but for the planet.” – Judith Shapiro, The Washington Post]

    http://www.complete-review.com/reviews/winchs/needham.htm

  8. Imagine if it was learned that McCain sat on a charitable committee in Arizona with a man who had been a member of the Ku Klux Klan in Mississippi in the early 60s, had taken part in the bombings of Black churches, had never expressed any regret for tyhose acts, and who was on the record as saying “he regrets he didn’t do more” to stop civil rights. Do you think the media would give McCain a free pass because he said (a) he, McCain, never bombed any churches, and (b) it was all a long time ago, amd (c) he “thought this guy had been rehabilitated”? Not likely. The media would CRUCIFY him.

  11. But the fact is that virtually everyone in the mass media in the US hates Bush and the Repubs so much that they are not going to let ANYTHING get in the way of Obama winning this election. So Obama is just being given a free pass on Ayers, as on everything else.

  16. “Imagine if it was learned that McCain sat on a charitable committee in Arizona with a man who had been a member of the Ku Klux Klan in Mississippi in the early 60s”

    this is 4 years to 2002 , but then additionaly there ar other associations as well , also quotes from 2 paerticipants at th original William Ayers home approval of Obama

    CENTRE
    I hav nebver said Obama is a teroist , and perhaps you missed my #619 and #745 where specificaly I said he was not BUT was is relevant is not only th assocaions that were long and varied with Ayers but Obama’s lies denying any asociation at all I’ll quote them in due course

    Perhaps you misunderstood my lingos…some say not my strongest point ..like saying one of worst terorists’…well read my #9 and I’m not sure reely of Ayers terorist “ranking” so so thats my term but if somone wishs to rate him 8th worst , or 14th worst …my judgement standards & convictions argument still holds no matter if 8th or 14th or whatever BASED on Ayers record

  17. Imagine if McCain left a handicapped wife for the daughter of a beer baron worth $100M who turned out to be a drug addict who stole narcotics from a charity which provided cheap drugs to disadvantaged people and who escaped charges after McCain tried to ruin the person who blew the whistle on her. Would the media give him a free pass?

  18. Liddy is a nutter, but he never planted any bombs, and he did four years in prison for his crimes. Ayers has dodged the law on his. I agree nevertheless that McCain should not associate with him. But at least McCain is open about this, in his usual contrarian way – he doesn’t dodge and waffle like Obama. Obama’s dominant political characteristic is evasion. He has dodged and wriggled around every tough question, about himself or his policies, all year. He was still doing it in the last debate. That’s why, although I think McCain’s campaign has been disappointing, and my opinion of his judgement has gone down, I still am totally unconvinced that Obama is fit to be President. If I was an American I would now probably not vote for POTUS on 4 November.

  21. [Liddy is a nutter, but he never planted any bombs, and he did four years in prison for his crimes. ]

    I knew you’d be able to justify it somehow. And the USCWF?

  22. [Obama could turn out to be Jeffrey Dahmer in blackface and it would be of no electoral consequence]

    What complete and utter tripe

  24. [Every word of it true. McCain is a creep, which everyone in the US can see now.]

    Ah yes Dio, but he DOESN’T PAL AROUND WITH TERRORISTS SO IT’S ALL OK!!!

  25. Adam

    If Obama was Jeffrey Dahmer, he wouldn’t smell so hot coz Dahmer was knifed to death in jail a few years back. Incidentally, one of Dahmer’s victims was a black 14 year old who escaped from Dahmer’s apartment and was found by the police. I won’t describe where he was bleeding from. The police kindly returned the boy to Dahmer’s apartment and passed it off as a boy-boy thing.

  27. Ron, I was not specifically implying that you said that Obama is a terrorist.

    But the whole point of the dirt digging and mud throwing is to portray Obama a terrorist.

  30. What we reely hav with William Ayers (and with so many other of Obama’s seedy associations) is Obama’s judgement & convictions exposed …followed by a pattern of Obama lies on that association & if nailed a point of it he just changes th lie

    Both th US Liberal Media is so desperate to get rid of Bush and so desperate to get a black Harvard ‘progressive as POTUS , they ar prepared to ignore anything adverse about Obama on charater

    Then when Obama is exposed on no core ‘left’ policys , Liberal Media still ignore

    Then when in June Obama ditched numerous “progressive” policys for politcal gain , Liberal Media initially complained then recommenced ignoring these as well

    Liberal Media hav now been reduced to supporting a plastic man who lies & stands for little …other hating Bush & that Obama is a Non Bush and a Non Republican

    and so ar “Obama-rusted” here

  31. And again the usual suspects resort to name calling and ignore McCain’s clear indescritions to have another Obama bash. BOOOOOORING. McCain’s toast. Deal with it.

  32. Diogenes, Adam, Ron & others;

    Don’t know if this link has been put up yet or not. This article explains why Ayers is a non issue.

    [
    Indeed, the prime exhibit in the Obama-Ayers case is a single gathering held in Ayers’ home where Obama launched the early stages of his political career as a neighborhood activist in exactly the same way as dozens, if not scores, of other aspirants to a political career in Chicago’s notoriously nepotistic and cynical political culture — hardly evidence of deeply shared ideological commitment. I would prefer to believe that people are responsible only for their own beliefs and actions and not those of the person who might be sitting next to them on some board or at some conference.
    ]

    I am hardly responsible for the views and opinions of other PB’s out there, am I? Don’t think so, yet we all chose freely to associate with each other in this forum.
    Think about that folks and give the next POTUS a break already.

    URL for article – http://poligazette.com/2008/10/09/why-i-give-obama-a-pass-on-ayers/

  33. Dario, McCain may be toast, but that’s not really the point. Given the record of the Bush administration and the current state of the economy, it is amazing that McCain is ahead in any state at all. But it is still legitimate to point out that Obama has managed to win first the nomination and now the election by a process of systematic obfuscation of both his biography and his policies, and by avoiding any close questioning about them, with the active connivance of most of the media. Obama is coasting to victory merely by virtue of being a Democrat in a Democrat year. Both his character and his intentions are still total mysteries.

  34. Adam @ 70,

    I’m shocked. And I went back to read it four times to make sure I was reading it correctly and also quoting the correct number message.

    Hope William sinbins that comment. What were you thinking? Shame on you.

  35. Adam
    “Obama is coasting to victory merely by virtue of being a Democrat in a Democrat year. Both his character and his intentions are still total mysteries.”

    if I substitute Rudd for Obama and Labor for Democrat it sounds just like a milne,shanahan et al piece from last years election.

    double shame on you!

  37. [Adam
    “Obama is coasting to victory merely by virtue of being a Democrat in a Democrat year. Both his character and his intentions are still total mysteries.”

    if I substitute Rudd for Obama and Labor for Democrat it sounds just like a milne,shanahan et al piece from last years election.

    double shame on you!]

    Somehow I don’t think Obama will care what Adam’s opinion is on how he wins, if he wins

  40. Wasn’t it true that one of Rudd’s ministers wrote alleged gangland murderer Tony Mokbel a reference? Wasn’t it true that Rudd had dinner with oooohhhh Brian Burke?

    There are people all over the world suffering over this financial crisis and corporate executives are paying themselves hundreds of millions of dollars in bonuses regardless and you are worried about who Obama may have mingled with 150 years ago?

    The republicans must be SACKED and never to be voted back in again for generations and generations.

  41. Adam

    I read a National Review article (see I do read what the other side says) which said that if there was a Nobel Prize for Plausibility that Obama would win it easily. He’s Mr Plausible, soon to be President Plausible.

  44. I never thought I’d see the day when the Master of Pragmatic Politics said this! (And I mean that as a compliment).

    [Winning is all that matters, is that your position?]

  46. [Wasn’t it true that one of Rudd’s ministers wrote alleged gangland murderer Tony Mokbel a reference? Wasn’t it true that Rudd had dinner with oooohhhh Brian Burke?]

    Precisely

  48. Juliem , you made a post about Obama & William Ayers that repeats false Obama talikng point’ sites & pro Obama rags like Daily\kos & Hugg womens and demonstrates you hav no knowledge of Obama’s associations with william Ayers as you’ve done no research …..thats th problem of rusted on Oabma supporters , relying only on Obama biased info sites

  50. A shadow minister’s staffer wrote a reference for Mokbel without knowing who he was. MPs’ offices do this all the time – or they did then anyway. The MP very gallantly took the rap rather than blame the staffer. I’m not sure how this is supposed to reflect on Rudd.

    Rudd went to a dinner Brian Burke was at, along with lots of other people – not quite the same as “having dinner with him.” Anyway associating with Burke was a bipartisan failing. And Burke may (or may not) be a crook but he’s never been a terrorist as far as I know.

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