Presidential election minus 26 days

I’ve added a new item of methodology for state polling aggregates: as many days’ worth of polling will be included from a given state as is necessary to produce a sample of more than 3000. The base line remains October 1. Apart from that, polls are being adjusted to incorporate the shift in the Real Clear Politics national average since the time they were conducted. Two developments are worth noting. We have a new swing state in West Virginia, where an American Research Group survey shows Obama with a shock 50-42 lead. This reverses the result from the last poll in the state (by Rasmussen) on September 24, so it should be treated with caution for the time being. Conversely, another American Research Group survey has McCain leading 49-46 in Missouri, which cuts Obama’s aggregate lead there from 2.2 per cent to 0.2 per cent.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 54.4 39.1 1031 17
Iowa 54.8 39.8 692 7
Pennsylvania 53.3 38.6 3142 21
Washington 53.9 42.0 700 11
New Hampshire 53.4 41.6 2760 4
West Virginia 50.9 40.4 600 5
Wisconsin 52.1 41.7 2641 10
Minnesota 51.2 41.3 3673 10
Virginia 51.6 42.5 3183 13
Colorado 50.6 42.8 3441 9
Florida 51.1 43.7 3125 27
New Mexico 47.7 40.6 1159 5
Maine 51.9 45.0 500 4
Nevada 50.8 44.6 1768 5
North Carolina 49.3 44.7 3736 15
Ohio 48.5 45.1 3418 20
Missouri 48.9 46.6 1600 11
Indiana 45.6 47.4 1977 11
Others – – – 175 158
RCP/Total 49.9 42.3 – 369 169

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

905 comments on “Presidential election minus 26 days”

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  1. I wouldn’t trust the polls in Missouri too much if my sister’s experience is any guide. She was polled but when they found out she was voting for McCain, the pollster hung up on her with a polite “sorry, then, we don’t need your opinion” ……..

  2. [I wouldn’t trust the polls in Missouri too much if my sister’s experience is any guide. She was polled but when they found out she was voting for McCain, the pollster hung up on her with a polite “sorry, then, we don’t need your opinion” ……..]

    Not neccessarily. That might have been an internal Republican pollster only needing the opinion of uncommitted voters for example.

  4. ltep,

    Doesn’t matter too much in this case as I don’t hold her vote against her any more 😉 ; Obama will win the election without her vote and likely take Missouri, her state, along in the bargain 😉

  5. cricket 378/7; Sharma 4/77 with 7 maidens off of 30 overs, Hussey 122/229 and Lee 1/6 ….. just had the drinks break of the afternoon session

  9. So AL #746 & Diogenes #749 say William Ayres wasn’t one of th USA’s worst terrorists , but you DO NOT say what William Ayres was , ..so you saying what for eg th 8h worst terrorist is not as bad as one of the worst terrorists

    so that an uninformed reader is mislead by your play on words that William Ayres was not too bad reely , maybe even just a bad non terrorist

    …to be Obama’s initial political sponsor from age 34 onwards as a qualigfied Lawyer from 1995 onwards & operator to assist him first ever to get elected to Illinois Senate , & involved politcaly and in directorships & other associations with Obama for in excess of next 6 years

    Who is William Ayers? Bill Ayers and his “Weather Underground” comrades record
    .

    1969 ‘days of rage’ of Ayres & 300 members arsoned large parts of Chicago & attacked civilians & police

    1970 , first March , planted bombs at New York City Police Headquarters

    1971 planted bombs Capitol building

    1972 , 19th May planted bombs at the Pentagon and other public buildings

    1975 , 29th Jan , planted bombs under the Harry S Truman Building housing the Dept of State

    1970 to 1975 planted bombs at several banks, police department headquarters and precincts, state and federal courthouses, and state prison administrative offices

    late 1960’s -1970’s planted bomb totallting 30 thirty separate bombings aimed at destroying the defence and security infrastructures of the U.S.

    1970 FORT DIX army dance , to bomb Fort Dix killing hundreds of young men & there girl friends & ONLY FAILED TO KILL HUNDREDS OF INNOCENTS/CIVILIANS only because th bombs pre exploded killing Ayres then girlfriend & 2 other Ayres own terrorist team , and FBI found th detailed Fort Dix bomb plans in th remains

    And Diogenes said he didn’t kill anyone

    And AL & Diogenes say he wasn’t one of th USA’s worst terrorists , AS IF disgenuously William Ayres was not too bad a bloke FOR OBAMA to hav from 1995 a long close political & other associations with

    What for instance th 8th worst US terrorist is OK for Obama to be with ? Is at your disengenuous argument ….to camouflage terrorist Ayres as a Obama mate

  10. Ron

    You asked me to comment whether I agreed that Ayers was “one of the worst US terrorists”. I did not.

    Has Ayers ever been found guilty of being a terrorist?

    Has he spent time in jail?

    If not, why not?

    Frankly, I’d be more worried about Ayers being totally incompetent than anything else based on your post. How useless a terrorist can he be? 30 bombings and they only managed to kill three of themselves. I’d be embarrassed to be associated with such a loser. 😉

  12. Ron, I’m a bit confused. In your last comment, fourth last paragraph, you said Ayres was killed? I thought he was now an academic?

  13. [Ron, I’m a bit confused. In your last comment, fourth last paragraph, you said Ayres was killed? I thought he was now an academic?]

    You expected sense or accuracy from a post of Ron’s?

  14. Ah yes, Diogenes, back in the 70’s in particular, people weren’t very good at effective opposition to nasty, conniving, fraudulent, corrupt, lying, murdering bastards/regimes. We’re so much better at it now.

  16. [so you saying what for eg th 8h worst terrorist is not as bad as one of the worst terrorists ]
    What about Jerry Falwell who said that Americans helped the 9/11 terrorist attacks?

  17. 😉 ….. Finally someone taking some responsibility in the Republican party 😉

    [
    ‘McCain Forced to Fire Virginia County Chair Following Racist Newspaper Attack on Obama”

    The John McCain campaign has been forced to fire its campaign chair in Buchanan County, Virginia, following his publication of a racist newspaper attack
    { http://www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2008-10/42750415.pdf } on Barack Obama.

    http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/10/mccain-forced-to-fire-virginia.php
    ]

  18. I worked alongside a man for a couple of years, stayed over at his flat for several weeks whilst looking for accommodation for myself and my then girlfriend, socialised with him occasionally now and then and generally maintained contact with him during our time as colleagues and afterwards. He frequently asked me to go into a sideline business with him which I declined to do. A couple of years later he was convicted for importing several kilos of heroin into Australia in multiple importations. Evidence at his trial led to the conclusion that he had been doing so for most of the time I had known him.
    Without access to confidential police records a person can have absolutely no idea of what is going on within their own family or close circle of friends, let alone the enormous web of casual aquaintances a person such as a community worker would have. To accuse Obama of wrongdoing in the Ayers matter is stretching probability to beyond breaking point.
    I can understand the Republicans attempting to do so out of both desperation and habit, but from you, Ron it just makes you appear to be a vacuous chanter of slogans provided by the more desperate of the partisan conservatives. Come up with something new and concrete on the matter or give it a rest.

  20. William Ayers terrorist SUMMED up his “Weatherman underground” group’s written ideology as follows: “Kill all the rich people. Break up their cars and apartments. Bring the revolution home, Kill your parents.”

    Did Ayres regret his bombing actions:
    William Ayers SAID “I don’t regret setting bombs , I feel we didn’t do enough ” Ayers told The New York Times in an article by Dinitia Smith published on 11 Sept. , 2001
    .
    William Ayers SAID in relation to the Fort Dix bombs that the bombs would have done serious damage (had they not pre-exploded killing 3 terorists including killing his then girlfriend )…
    Ayers SAID “tearing through windows and walls and, yes, people too.”

    In that interview he also boasted of the bombing many of th public buildingsI posted
    .
    Police found in th terrorists building blown apart by th FORT DIX bombs pre exploding , apart from 3 of th terrorists deceased , police found 57 sticks of dynamite, four 12-inch (300 mm) pipe bombs packed with dynamite, and 30 blasting caps The pipe bombs and several eight-stick packages of dynamite had fuses already attached. Also found were timing devices rigged from alarm clocks & maps , plus th Fort Dix plans that would have killed hundreds of innocents/civilians
    .
    Bill Ayers and his current wife, Bernardine Dohrn, spent the 1970s as fugitives running from the FBI

    Both were listed on the FBI’s ten most wanted” in the 1970’s. In 1980 the two surrendered , but all charges against them were dropped due to FBI “improper surveillance” and for FBI “technical misconduct in th use of informants’ in those years in seaching for them

    A technical law for th guilty , and Obama i assert gross poor judgement , indecent standards of asociation & lack of convictions …seeing as Obama was a Lawyer & info was all on th public record

  21. [Bill Ayers and his current wife, Bernardine Dohrn, spent the 1970s as fugitives running from the FBI ]
    Are they running from the FBI now?

  22. Bummer. I was hoping he’d either get out for 141 or remain not out for that score. For the trivial minded 141 is the lowest score never scored by an Australian in a Test Match.

  24. Ronster

    Ayers denies those comments according to Wiki.

    [Much of the controversy about Ayers during the decade since 2000 stems from an interview he gave to The New York Times on the occasion of the memoir’s publication. The reporter quoted him as saying “I don’t regret setting bombs” and “I feel we didn’t do enough”, and, when asked if he would “do it all again” as saying “I don’t want to discount the possibility.” Ayers has not denied the quotes, but he protested the interviewer’s characterizations in a Letter to the Editor published September 15, 2001: “This is not a question of being misunderstood or ‘taken out of context’, but of deliberate distortion.”

    In the ensuing years, Ayers has repeatedly avowed that when he said he had “no regrets” and that “we didn’t do enough” he was speaking only in reference to his efforts to stop the United States from waging the Vietnam War, efforts which he has described as “. . . inadequate [as] the war dragged on for a decade.” Ayers has maintained that the two statements were not intended to imply a wish they had set more bombs.]

  25. OOOOOHHH, Obama is going to raise taxes. OOOOOHH, Obama wants a socialist health system.

    Obama 1.22 in from 1.35

    McCain 4.00 out from 3.25

    Yeah stick it right up ’em!

    Could the Americans actually get it right? In your best Bruce McAvaney voice “can you believe it”.

  26. Hmm, I suspect ronster, that you maybe weren’t around in the 60’s & 70’s. I personally am guilty, m’lud, of acts, that if the walloppers had actually caught me, would have landed me in the clink, in opposition, in my view, to a ghastly and unjustified war against the Vietnamese. Subsequently, I’ve had a few other narrow escapes from being taken for the interview without coffee being offered, mostly in relation to social justice issues. Maybe, you need to think about this a bit. Would you describe Nelson Mandela as a terrorist?

  27. [Maybe, you need to think about this a bit. Would you describe Nelson Mandela as a terrorist?]
    No, he’s a freedom fighter.

  28. ShowsOn

    According to the US, Mandela was officially a terrorist until he was taken off the State Department Known Terrorist List in June this year.

  29. [According to the US, Mandela was officially a terrorist until he was taken off the State Department Known Terrorist List in June this year.]
    Sure, that was mainly because the A.N.C. received donations from the Soviet Union.

  31. Centre,

    [
    Could the Americans actually get it right? In your best Bruce McAvaney voice “can you believe it”.
    ]

    Somewhere up there, MLK and Obama’s mum are smiling down on him. All we have to do now is just be patient and wait 🙂

  32. Are all these “professionals” panic merchants? What would happen if your lawyer or doctor swung madly between good news and bad news? Can’t these people grow up and show a bit of backbone?

    All of the evidence and facts are the same in the case.

    One day,

    Lawyer: That alibi evidence sounded really good. You’re going to get off no worries. We’ll sue them for wrongful arrest. Break out the champagne!

    Next day,

    Lawyer: That blood expert sounded really convincing. You’re stuffed. They’re going to hang you. Let’s try and get a plea bargain for like imprisonment. God, I’ve never had a client hand before.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7662572.stm

  33. Yep, we are experiencing the worst world market crash possibly of all time. The question professionals are asking is how low can we go?

    So what can happen? The ASX can fall below 3000. Stacks of people will lose their jobs. Wages will fall considerably. And property prices will follow and capitulate.

    1983 was my first ever voting election and I remember Fraser saying that if Labor wins you should withdraw all your money from the bank and hide it under your bed.

    Now I know what he was talking about. Only not with socialist ideology. But with neo conservative ideology.

  34. Diogenes, I think we are seeing mass madness on the markets. Don’t know just what the G 20 mob are going to be able to do about a rampaging bunch of lemmings leaping off the nearest cliff.

  35. So we NOW take th word of William Ayers who did all those bombings I listed OVER a New YorkTimes journalist quote in 2001 I don’t regret setting bombs; I feel we didn’t do enough”

    BUT he has never denied saying in interview in relation to the Fort Dix bombs “tearing through windows and walls and, yes, people too.” NO he did not

    So also we now dismiss th writen ethos of his Weatherman teroist group
    “Kill all the rich people. Break up their cars and apartments. Bring the
    revolution home, Kill your parents.”

    HOW ABOUT taking th word of Ayers himself out of his own 2001 book to reconfirm th NYT article
    Ayers reflects on whether or not he might use bombs against the U.S. in the future. “I can’t imagine entirely dismissing the possibility” That is no contrition

  36. Centre, you’re probably a young one. Comfort yourself with this. The world will necessarily stop emitting so much CO2, so you and your kids will be able to breathe.

  37. Juliem, I reckon he will make a great president. God knows, the American people, and the world for that matter, deserves it after that world class capital IDIOT Dubya.

    What the Americans must learn after this crisis is that extreme right wing conservative ideology is no better than communism.

  38. [What the Americans must learn after this crisis is that extreme right wing conservative ideology is no better than communism.]
    They are the same because they are both utopian. One says if you end ownership of private property, that magically you create a fair society. The other says if you let the market rule, you will some how create a fair society.

    I also am suspicious of any political philosophy that places makes one thing of paramount importance, because it means that protection of human rights becomes a secondary concern.

  39. Diog, the current worldwide financial crisis has very much to do with the lack of confidence the World and the Markets have on the two POTUS candidates.

    At the moment, they are not inspiring at all, especially after the two debates. USA is scorching and the World gets burn along the way while these two just Tweedle Dee, Tweedle Dum along. Showing no sign of urgency or understanding and providing no leadership or solutions. I pity USA and the World.

  46. Finns

    [I pity USA and the World.]

    I know you. There’s no way that’s true. You’re quite enjoying it. China is buying up the world as we speak. We’ve got a Mandarin-speaking PM. Asia is the place to be. China isn’t going to tank. It’s growth will drop from 11%pa to 8%. 80% of their economy is internal. We’ll all be wearing Red soon. 😀

    Ronster

    Haven’t you seen those studies? Journalists are less trustworthy than politicians and imbecilic terrorists. I still maintain that most drug dealers are more honest than journalists.

  47. Ayers was acquitted only on a technicality. Every knows he did it, and indeed he doesn’t deny that he did it, or regret doing it. In other words he’s an unrepentent terrorist. Not that he matters. The real question is: when did Obama learn about Ayers’s past, and what did he do when he did learn it? He’s dodged this question all year.

  48. Dont laugh. Japan is really in deep pile of hsit. The sick man of Asia, has been and getting sicker.

    [ TOKYO – PRIME Minister Taro Aso warned on Friday Asia’s largest economy was at risk as Tokyo stocks saw their steepest plunge in two decades and the crisis claimed the first Japanese financial institution.

    The Tokyo market meltdown ‘has reached a point where it affects the real economy and fundraising’, Mr Aso told reporters.

    Japanese government bonds plunged on Friday, pushing futures down more than a full point, with panicked investors selling debt for cash as the domestic money market joined overseas markets in grinding to a standstill.

    Those troubles hit home with the failure of insurer Yamato Life Insurance, the first Japanese financial institution to fall victim to the global crisis. Yamato, an unlisted insurer, failed with $2.7 billion (S$4 billion) in debt, citing losses from securities caused by the market turmoil.]

    http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Money/Story/STIStory_288164.html

  49. “China is buying up the world as we speak”

    I know they’d be prepared to pay as much as $80 a share for BHP lock and stock if they were given the all clear.

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