Morgan: Rudd 55, Turnbull 30

Roy Morgan has released a mid-week phone survey of 574 respondents on attitudes to the party leaders, which has 55 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd against 30 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull. Kevin Rudd has a 55 per cent approval rating and 31 per cent disapproval; Malcolm Turnbull’s figures are 43 per cent and 24 per cent. The sample produced a two-party result of 57-43 in favour of Labor: no further detail on voting intention is provided.

UPDATE: Aristotle in comments points out that primary vote figures from the survey are available on Morgan’s poll trends page: Labor 46.5 per cent, Coalition 34.5 per cent, Greens 8 per cent, others 4.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

451 comments on “Morgan: Rudd 55, Turnbull 30”

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  1. So Rudd has a net approval rating of 25 and Turnbull of 19 yet the Morgan headline is.
    Seems like little change except Turnbull is seen as more acceptable as an Opposition leader than Nelson which would surprise nobody.

  2. The headline:
    “Majority of electors prefer Mr Rudd as Prime Minister – however a concern must be:
    More Australian electors “disapprove” of Rudd than Turnbull! ”

    So the low disapproval rating has nothing to do with the fact that may voters (33%) haven’t made a decision about Turnbull, while only a few (14%) are still uncertain about Rudd. Difference of 19% in undecided outstrips the 9% disapproval by a country mile.

    I wonder how long they spent scratching their heads to worry up that ‘positive’ bit of spin.

  3. [I wonder how long they spent scratching their heads to worry up that ‘positive’ bit of spin]

    It’s just the usual Morgan BS to try and garner ‘attention’ for his polls

  4. Those examples of OOs writings are truly disgraceful. They are getting more blatant than Fox News. Now we have Fox OO but with less credibility.

    I wonder who hands down the riding instructions for murdoch papers? If it is rupe or he just makes sure to employ the right sycophants to get the desired outcomes.

    Yes Turnbull would be very affraid of Gillard. Even that old hand Howard was freaked out in parliament by Gillard, he couldn’t look at her. She seems to be able to stare you down and keep her chain of thought and speech nice and fluent – disconcerting.

  5. The worry would be if Turnbull HADN’T got a small spike. I thought 83% apporval of Rudd among Labor voters was pretty impressive.Never saw a figure like that for Howard among Liberal voters.

    Incidentally, Morgan was the same demographic genius who told me on the phone last October that the election would be “50/50”. It seems like the old rules of thumb in determining voter allegience no nonger apply.

  6. No 6

    TP, all the confected outrage over Shanahan is just silly. I bet if Shanahan was blatantly pro-Rudd, you’d have a different opinion.

  7. No 7

    BB, the margin in many ALP-held seats gained at the last election are retained by very slim margins. It wouldn’t take much for them to be lost.

  8. [BB, the margin in many ALP-held seats gained at the last election are retained by very slim margins. It wouldn’t take much for them to be lost.]

    GP, just as many Liberal seats are held by very slim margins. It wouldn’t take much for them to be lost.

  9. 9 – and a very small shift to Labor would see their majority blossom out. The Libs have quite a few seats that are low lying fruit so to speak. Of course the old argument used by some for Barnett’s chances next election in WA (ie a further swing to him) could very well apply to Rudd, afterall it did happen to many state Labor governments didn’t it.

  10. If a journalist or a paper was blatantly Labor I would agree with and acknowledge anybody who complained about it. In fact it would be just good if no bias was shown by anybody in the media – but failing that a we require a wide diversity of media ownership as a way to balance a variety of partisan views, but we dont have it. And when it becomes as extreme as it is now then it is beyond the pale.

  11. The people coming back to the Libs for Talcum were only ever going to be the progressive leaning economic right. But his first stunt was to criticise Rudd for going to the US to talk about the finanncial meltdown etc, which was never going to play out well with that group of voters.

    I think Talcum short-circuited his own bounce!

  12. Will Fran Bailey and Peter Lindsay(to name two) recontest their seats in 2010?
    And surely Labor’s vote in WA will improve next time, allowing Rudd to recover seats like Swan and Cowan?
    On the downside, I wouldn’t be too hopeful of Labor holding Robertson, Flynn and Solomon next time.

  13. No 15

    Of course, the irony of your argument TP is that Rupert Murdoch publicly commended Rudd’s ability to PM before the 2007 election. It isn’t a question of ownership.

  14. Flynn just seems to me an unlikely Labor seat, but you could be right, it depends on how good the Labor MP is working for his constituents!
    Labor seems to have a crop of good new MPs in QLD, particularly those in Dawson, Forde and Blair.

  15. Not to lay odds directly BUT I think that if it is being seriously considered behind the scenes, that they will wait until the fallout from the NZ, CA and the USA elections and see how things shake out, especially in Washington, before they jump in the deep end. If the Democrats get into the White House that will encourage Rudd to get a move on. Don’t know what the Kiwis will do but if Helen Clark can hold on, that will only add to the positives for doing it. In the meanwhile, say the next 9 months or so, they will have ample time to try to attempt to pass other pieces of legislation and see what the Senate does with them. I think IF they call a DD election, it won’t be until late in autumn or early winter after the variables I’ve mentioned settle down a bit.

  16. Damian only just got over the line in Solomon. I haven’t seen him personally out and about up here but he should be taking the opportunity when he is back here to do lots of door knocking and increase his profile. There is growing anti-Labor sentiment here though that might not translate to the Federal level. Also there is a bit of a moving population here. He could just as easily lose at the next election as win it.

  17. Realistically it will probably come down to the economy. If we don’t go into recession (while the rest of the world almost certainly does) and interest rates keep coming down then Rudd will increase his margin for sure. If we do, then it will be interesting and the extent of his achievements at the end of the term will be important (ETS, removing WC, education & health spending etc).

  18. Dario @ 32 I agree with your ‘realism’. It is all about the economy. I favour Mr. Rudd to get a second term but I am less sure about that than I was at the beginning of this year. Let’s hope he is up to the job; the wellbeing of many may depend on it.

  19. Labor would certainly have little to lose in the Senate from a double dissolution election. The trick is to get a trigger that is sufficient to gaining public support. The MLS bill certainly could be such a trigger. However, I suspect the Medicare Thresholds (No. 2) bill will be passed.

  20. Point of correction:

    [The Australian is a Liberal newspaper. You know this, and yet you go on buying it…]

    Haven’t bought it, or even read a free copy for years.

    And then years before that.

  21. No 34

    Wrong ruawake. Insufficient evidence does not mean no evidence. There was certainly a lot of statutory declarations flying about.

  22. Swannie is announcing a new initiative by the Govt to inject more money into the mortgage market and boost competition in the mortgage lending market, especially for the non bank lenders.

  23. No 39

    [even read a free copy for years.]

    So why do you give us these continued long-winded sermons about how terrible the Australian is, complete with full-length quotes?

    Sorry, BB, but can we just be clear that you your statement was full of crap.

  24. [Swannie is announcing a new initiative by the Govt to inject more money into the mortgage market and boost competition in the mortgage lending market, especially for the non bank lenders]

    What’s the bet Turnbull tries to claim it

  25. Sky news Lib stooge Spears is allready saying it was all Allbuls idea and how embarrassing it is for labor and he’s wetting himself trying to get hold of Allbull to hear what he has to say.

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