The latest quarterly Newspoll survey of Queensland voting intention continues the national state-level trend, with Labor’s primary vote plunging five points to 38 per cent against 41 per cent for the newly merged Liberal National Party. Labor maintains a narrow 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, with the Greens on 9 per cent. The previous survey had Labor leading 55-45 from primary votes of 43 per cent for Labor (itself down from 50 per cent in January-March), 26 per cent for the Liberals and 12 per cent for the Nationals. Anna Bligh’s approval rating is down eight points to 54 per cent, but she leads Lawrence Springborg as preferred premier 53 per cent (down seven points) to 27 per cent (up three points).
“would struggle to be re-elected without support from the Greens.”
Good to see the media paying attention and aknowlodging
The Greens are the deciders, ha ha ha.
Well really what you mean is that the Greens voters play a large part in the electoral process in choosing how to direct their preferences. The actual party I would still argue has little impact on deciding the election.
Still, all things change and the coming years will be very interesting electorally.
On an unrelated topic, had some discussions with colleagues who seem to believe the Stanhope Government is on its way out in the ACT. I find that hard to believe but it will certainly be fun to watch. Can I just say that the ACT Liberals election slogan of “Vote Liberal to get Zed instead” is so tacky I like it.
The media can ignore and dismiss The Greens as having little/no influence, as do rusted on party spin doctors, but the facts suggest otherwise.
What I really mean “the only polls that counts” NT, WA, Mayo The Greens vote is increacing massively, and the media are sleeping on the job, and hardly mention the biggest trend in Australian votes in many many years.
margaret
1 vote for the green = 1 vote for the ALP, it has been that way for the last 20 years
The greens are irrelevant
Damn I had money on NSW being the next government to fall
With OPV and the LNP more than likely to drive home the “Just Vote 1” strategy. I think this could end up being really close.
dovif,
If you don’t understand the electoral system we have in Australia
perhaps you should not make shch ridiculous assertions.
While Green preferences might benefit Labor more than others, you and all voters make a choice where your preferences go, if anywhere.
I know it bugs you, the landslide in Green votes, but don’t feel so bad,
you’r not alone in dispairing at how well the Green are actually doing in the face of little posative media, no developer donations, on the smell of an oily rag, by being honest, not lieing.
The Greens will be around for some time yet, leading the way,
better learn to live with them, friend.
Hutch
I’m not sure how a “Just Vote 1” campaign benefits the LNP, considering they are likely to be first or second in primaries in most seats.
A “Just Vote 1” strategy from the LNP could actually help the ALP pick up Gladstone, where they were ahead on primaries last time.
I guess the argument could be made that the LNP pushing the “Just Vote 1” strategy could encourage Greens voters to do the same but:
1. I don’t how likely it is Greens voters will listen to what the LNP tells them to do
and
2. The seats where the Greens vote is likely to have the biggest impact (South Brisbane, Brisbane Central, Mt Coot-tha) are generally won by the ALP either on the primary vote or very close to it.
It looks like the new look LNP is heading for victory at next years Queensland State Election. I expect the LNP to pick up a swag of Regional seats from Labor and Independents and win possibly all of the Gold and Sunshine Coast seats the newly created ones plus the labor held seats. Labor should hold up well in the metropolitan area holding all the formerly safe Liberal seats like Ashgrove, Mt Coottha and Yeroongpilly however it will lose overall because the LNP will only need a complement of Brisbane seats like the National Party did when it ruled Queensland in its own right (1983-89). Look for these seats Pine Rivers, Aspley, Greenslopes, Mt Gravatt(now Sunnybank), Mansfield, Springwood, Toowong (now Indooroopilly)and Redlands to fall to the LNP as the National Party held these seats in the 1980s.
One poor poll for Labor and it’s all over red rover?? Wishful thinking more likely.
Remember, Howard was down and out with 55/45 AGAINST him time and time again over the years. But come the campaign – those polls counted for nothing.
margaret
No the Greens gives out HtV cards at elections and they always preference Labor, so they are not a political force, they are more like the single issue preference feeders in the senate.
Yes some voters can direct their preference, but a lot blindly follows the HtV cards
For example the following people was elected on Greens preference
Belinda “do you know who I am” Neal, The Jockstrap Police Minister, Mark (I like children) Ortholopolis
Even when a state government is as corrupt and useless as the NSW ALP, we knows the Greens will preference them is the next ALP election.
Lets see the Greens for what they are …. that is preference feeder for the ALP
This definitely doesn’t look too good for Bligh. That prophecy of the Tories taking back all the states may come to pass.
dovif,
Sorry you are wrong, this is part of the misinformation that The Green have had to put up with for years.
The Greens don’t always preference Labor.
As for being a single issue party perhaps you should update your self,
The Greens have more thought out, transparent policies than the others, have a look :-
http://greens.org.au/policies/snappies
A vote for the Greens is a vote against Labor in Melbourne (Federal), Melbourne (State), Richmond, Brunswick, Northcote, and a couple of inner-city seats in NSW as well as the Senate, all mainland state Legislative Councils and the Tasmanian House of Assembly.
dovif,
Further reading on how The Green are not a one issue party, enjoy.
http://qld.greens.org.au/policies/Qld-policies
Anyone who thinks that Greens preferences will save the QLD Labor government from losing the next state election is kidding themselves. Preference flows will be thick on the ground in seats that the LNP won’t win anyway. Seats that matter will go to the LNP on high primary votes and greens leakage will keep the ALP down.
All Gold Coast and Sunshine coast seats will go to the LNP. Most regional Labor seats will return to the LNP. They only need a few of the outer suburban seats to wrest power. Brisbane is not the pivotal battle that people make it out to be in Queensland, the most decentralised state in the country.
I never said the green are a single issue party, I said they acts like a preference feeding single issue party, so please read my email
As for the seats where it is Labor Vs Green on a 2PPP, that is not the point, for example the Libs preference the Green in those seat so they might beat labor in those sears. However if it was a Liberal Vs Labor vote. The green are so predictable that Labor takes those votes for granted
This means that Green will never have any power, all it is in a preference feeder
dovif said
#4 “1 vote for the green = 1 vote for the ALP”
#10 “the Greens gives out HtV cards at elections and they always preference Labor”
These statements are NOT correct.
We are accustomed with untruths being told about The Greens,
but such rubbish is not appropriate for this highly distinguished site.
To predict the result of the next state elections, one to be held late next year and the other in early 2010 on polls taken in September is 2008 is silly. Atm you would say they are struggling but let’s not get carried away.
Ryan
What are the Labor held seats on the Sunshine Coast?
This type of stuff always seems to happen in Qld state elections, the LNP are going to win, will it happen this time? Probably not. 😉
Oh great, we’ve descended into “yes, greens are good, no, greens are bad” already
That was quick
No 17
Margaret, they are correct. Verified by looking at the 2007 federal election results which saw the Greens help Labor lurch into office, even in Bennelong.
This discussion on Green influence/preferences is either academic or on the wrong thread. Queensland has Optional Preferential Voting.
I would have to question the motives for the untruths being slung around.
It could be just ignorance or just the usual smear tactics that so discredit the old LIB/LAB parties.
The amount of sensitivity shown by some, and accusations of not being relevant, just goes to show how relevant and influential The Greens are.
No 23
Margaret, the Greens are essentially the new Labor Left. The real untruth is your indignation.
Tell Wayne Goss that Green preferences always help Labor. 🙂
Given the “Greens bashing”, as a long time lurker, I feel moved to quote Mahatma Gandhi:
“First they ignore you.
Then they laugh at you.
Then they attack you.
Then you win.”
Guess which stage the Greens Party is at? It sure isn’t stage 1 or 2.
The Greens are relevant, Margaret, and there is still much potential for growth in support – unlike the LNP which are steadily going backwards, Federally, with the old guard still calling the shots.
But the fracturing of the non-conservative votes (Lab/Green) in the states with opt/pref will certainly benefit the conservatives.
Anyone care to guess how many Liberal independents there will be at the next Qld election? 😉
Margaret you seem to be at a loss at what the Green is
I got a htv card from the Greens at the last federal election, I will give you 1 guess which party got the Green’s preference
Also you can also view the upperhouse card to see where Green preference vote
Margaret wake up, you are in the left wing of the ALP
Margaret! I have 20 years of watching Australian politics (very sad) and while its true the Greens do sometimes run an open tickets but for the most part that put the ALP ahead of the Liberal Party therefore they are seen as an alternative for ALP voters just as the Democrats used to be an alternative for disgruntled Liberal voters.
The Green vote while is very strong and is increasing, is in part due to the dismise of the Democrats and both sides moving towards a more conservative policy outlook.
The Greens are not the first and wont be the last to fill the role of a third party, many of the inner city areas have a long history of third candidates just as rural Australia has a long history of multi conservative candidates.
I will repeat what I have said many times before the day the Greens boarden the policy outlook from opposing all development and supporting fringe ideas to a more even balanced approach is the day the major parties will start fretting about losing a swag of seats to the Greens.
This isn’t because the major parties are arrogant but both major parties have been around for 100 years or so in one form or another and have seen many political trends not just here but in other similar countries the world over and because they are generally very broad in their outlook they can see the strengths and weakness of the Greens.
Lets take Melbourne Ports a seat that is demographically a Liberal seat but is a safe ALP seat with a very strong Green vote, the ALP would be more concerned by the Liberal Party than the Greens for the ALP would be looking at the demographics. The Greens do very well amoungst the younger population but we all know that they will generally move on so while the Greens may think appealing to this group will win them the seat they overlook the very thing that makes it a ALP V Liberal seat
Its the Economy stupid! most people living in Melbourne Ports while caring about the enviroment also aspire to live the lives of there chose yet when you look at the Greens what you see is high taxing and a set of soical policies which don’t match the aspirations.
Sure the Greens will continue to poll well but if your social and economic policies were so good then the ALP and the Liberal Party would have copied them.
SNIP: Off-topic comment deleted – The Management.
The Greens contested 27 of the 28 seats with margins of less than 10 per cent at the 2006 election, and directed preferences to Labor in eight of these. There were another nine in which they MAY have given them third preference after an independent – probably in two or three of them. So in probably about 15 or 16 of the 28 most marginal seats, the Greens recommended an exhausted vote. It seems about 15 per cent of Greens voters follow the HTV card. In 2006 they got a bit under 8 per cent of the vote: with Labor in decline they can expect 10 per cent or more at the next election (see WA and NT). So the Greens will have about 1.5 per cent of the vote at their disposal, to give or withhold from Labor, where they see fit to use it.
mexicanbeemer #3o
Thanks for your thoughtful post
You are right about the future for the Greens, except times have moved on a bit more than you think.
The Greens are well settled in on the road to having a broad, diverse, array of policies and well thought out strategies
The Greens never “opposed all development”, only over development at the expense of the environment.
For quite some time now the major parties have been “fretting” , as their hysterical dirty tricks campaigns have shown.
I can’t deny that The Green might of had some “fringe” ideas, but as an observer of some time you must have seen those ideas become mainstream, and adopted by the LIB/LAB Party.
Surely with The Greens on the scene things have improved.
Margaret
a responsible party would not have allowed old Communists like Lee Rhiannon into their midst – Lee was a loyal Marxist for nearly thirty years and her parents were members of the Central Committee of the CPA
MHW,
The Cold Wars over, look under the bed …anything there?
Now you’ve made me think, socilising Wall St., who’s idea was that?
There’s a nasty little neo-con under there, gripping his hammer and sickle!
“I want them to go. Go, join the “new political party”. Hope they call it the “New National Party” and Bruce McIver is their President and they choose the colour green. Then we’ll WHIP THEIR ARSE at the next election.
Here’s to NOT being an agrarian socialist bumpkin. Huzzah! ”
Pres Young Libs Qld. 🙂
There is a long way to go in the “merger” of the Libs and Nats in Qld. I doubt it will end happily.
IW are they tool for eating the watermellon under MHW’s bed?
Thats all very well Ruawake but the Qld Young Liberal President confused me how can they choose the colour green when the Green Party sprung up and stole that colour from its original owner blue will do just fine at the next state election it will no longer confuse electors afterall whats in a name and whats in a colour.
Yes, the hammer is used to smash the pips. (Nothing must regenerate. Wall Street’s Scorched Earth.)
To be fair to the Greens! both major parties from time to time come out with loopy ideas and select MPs that you really wouldn’t want running the country.
The Liberals gave us a loopy policy only recently (Workchoices) and I think you will find a few pollies who from time to time have belonged to loopy outfits.
Julia Gillard and Peter Costello have something in common there but it doesn’t change the fact that they have turned out to be good contributors to the nations politics.
GP
The location of ATCs in National Party, Liberal Party or marginal seats is obscene. 🙂
Oops wrong thread sorry. 🙁
THE Liberal National Party has suffered a major blow with Cunningham MP Stuart Copeland revealing he will retire at the next election…
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24395306-3102,00.html
Stuart Copeland decided he will retire at the next election.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/lnp-mp-retires-after-seat-pulled-out-from-under-him/2008/09/24/1222217296526.html
I find the commentary on these state polls fascinating. Why are the state ALP governments apparently in so much trouble, when they are leading in the polls, when Howard was apparently still going to win even when he was so far behind?? I just dont get it
Andrew! I suspect that after being so dominated for so long people are getting a little excited that we now have several real political contest also some of these state governments were over acheiving in the polls largley because Howard was never that populor therefore the state governments had addition support, also I would suggest that in some cases the age of the governments are catching up with them and as is often the case as a government ages its enemies start to outstrip its fans.
It turns out that this result has been achieved to some extent not by any improvement by the Liberal National Party themselves but by them hiving off the political hard work to consultants from “Australian Public Affairs”.
[Senior LNP sources said they expected further interest from donors following a Newspoll published yesterday in The Australian, showing the LNP had made big gains on Labor since the merger. It also emerged yesterday that the LNP had hired a public relations company to enlist candidates for the next state election.
Federal Liberal MPs have received an email from Andrew Bibb, a senior consultant with Australian Public Affairs.
The email reveals that the LNP plans to contest 66 of the 89 state seats in the election due in the next 12 months. Candidates would be preselected and “in the field” by November 3.
Mr Bibb asked the MPs for assistance in guiding the party about potential LNP candidates and campaign officials.
“As a LNP elected representative, your extensive knowledge of community and business leaders is of immense value to the LNP in undertaking our campaign preparations,” the email says.
The use of a public relations company by a political party to organise election candidates was regarded by observers as highly unusual, but Mr Bibb described it as “normal party procedure”.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24398959-5006786,00.html
Some of the crap in yesterday’s AUSTRALIAN was an embarrassment!
Journalists getting themselves into orgasmic fits of excitement over the supposed comeback of the Libs – not pretty to read!
Steve, as per the article you posted:
“The email reveals that the LNP plans to contest 66 of the 89 state seats in the election due in the next 12 months.”
And what of the other 23? Will these just be abandoned to the ALP?