US election minus 54 days

A thread for the discussion of the American elections, now a little less than eight weeks away.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

489 comments on “US election minus 54 days”

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  1. [Quite interesting that leftists like far-right libertarians.]

    Libertarianism can’t be summarised as a right or left wing ideology. The most radical (left wing) indigenous land rights agenda is supported by libertarian theory.

  4. [Sorry ShowsOn, but John Howard didn’t surreptitiously attempt to procure billions of dollars in foreign loans]

    No. He just did his best to bankrupt the country instead.

  5. No 53

    Excellent point. Bill Clinton was also a governor of a small state. So all the hoo-hah over Palin is baseless and inappropriate.

  6. GP

    You just had to change the gravatar didn’t you! I thought of using this one but I knew I’d never hear the end of it from Ronster.

  9. [Excellent point. Bill Clinton was also a governor of a small state. So all the hoo-hah over Palin is baseless and inappropriate.]

    It would be an apt comparison if Palin’s IQ was over 150.

  11. No 51

    Actually reading the Wiki on Libertarianism was quite a laugh. Especially when I came to “Libertarian Socialism”. Oxymoron, much?

  12. ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, September 12, 2008 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    Ron: “Placing th Free World in hands of a novice (oiliness)”
    ShowsOn: “You mean like Bill Clinton?”

    Why would you make such an un-psephological comment like that or was that your best , Billy Clinton was Governor for 12 years before being POTUS

  15. [Actually reading the Wiki on Libertarianism was quite a laugh. Especially when I came to “Libertarian Socialism”. Oxymoron, much?]

    I assumed you’d be familiar with Robert Nozick’s ‘Anarchy, State, Utopia’, which in parts argues that any indigenous peoples dispossessed from their land should either be compensated, or have it returned immediately. Nozick argues that taking over their land without just compensation infringed their natural rights.

    My point is that strict libertarianism of the Nozick variety can actually have extremely radical outcomes, which would be better described as left wing than right wing.

    The fact Margaret Thatcher occasionally admired Nozick, while refusing to sanction the South African apartheid regime, is perfect evidence that she was a dunce who didn’t understand the implications of the theory that she sometimes quoted.

  16. It’s worth noting that given the fluctuation of the polls in the US, they remain completely irrelevant until after the debates have concluded. Then – and only then – should they be taken with anything more than a grain of salt. The candidates are virtually tied at the moment, and I highly suspect it will remain that way for another month at least (barring debate mis-matches)

    In the end, it’s just about certain that McCain will take 200 EV’s, Obama will take 200, and the election will come down to the remaining 138, as it almost always does. Interesting that unless I am very much mistaken, today is the first day in which electoral-vote.com has had McCain ahead in terms of the EV race. Which, when viewed in light of paragraph one here, is entirely irrelevant but points to the closeness of the race at hand.

  18. Looking at test scores, Palin’s IQ is 117, using her SAT scores, which is not too shabby. McCain is in the low 130’s. Bill Clinton is 137 and Hillary is 140. Obama’s is 166, putting him in the genius range, according to a Stanford-Binet test the WaPo dug up. The “smartest” POTUS was John Adams, estimated at 175.

    I’m betting there is almost no correlation between IQ and success as a President.

  19. Max, well said!
    Wait until the debates have concluded before we make definitive predictions!
    However, it is a worry that Obama’s lead has whittled away ever since the start of the Palin roadshow!
    I’m afraid Obama’s choice of Biden as running mate was much too safe!

  21. [It’s worth noting that given the fluctuation of the polls in the US, they remain completely irrelevant until after the debates have concluded.]

    McCain got a bounce from his convention, but now the tracking polls are narrowing again.

    IMO it all comes down to Michigan and Ohio. If Obama wins both of those he wins.

    But he could still lose both of them, and win Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and he still wins.

    So it seems to me there are more combination for Obama to win at this stage, than McCain. I’m assuming that McCain wins Florida, because the old retirees will probably vote for him. But if he can’t win Florida, then he can’t win at all.

  23. The US polls indicate that the Palin nomination hasn’t done McCain any harm – and probably the reverse. It’s not going to do Obama’s people any good to keep attacking individuals.
    More American voters identify their personal political leaning as Democrat than Republican. They would rather see a Democrat in the Oval Office. Obama needs to realise it’s not all about him.
    Kevin thought it was but he had other issues going for him (i.e. Workchoices) – although he would never admit it.

  25. No 66

    Of course, libertarianism violently supports property rights and thus, theoretically, just compensation or a return of the land would be necessary. The issue is how much? which land? all of it? As was determined in Yorta Yorta, the “tide of history” makes such arguments worthless because you can’t displace millions of people. The very fact that Native Title can be extinguished by executive order or legislation reiterates this.

  26. Hello Even 14

    we hav this foolish nonsense Leader of free world , oiliness a one term Senator with community service experience stakes up against Billy Clinton’s 12 years Governor

    There is no telling oiliness will not hav us in a nuke war , bearing in mind he has precisely said he’d nuke both Pakistan and Iran PRE emptively

    So obamabots deflect from this rediculous situation of oiliness as a community service experience , to talk instead about th Republican VP and ifs and buts , rather than there POTUS candidate oiliness….a clear acknowledgment by Obamabots they know oiliness candidature inexperience is foolish

  27. [Of course, libertarianism violently supports property rights and thus, theoretically, just compensation or a return of the land would be necessary. The issue is how much?]

    According to Nozick? All of it. Every square CM. For Nozick, stealing something from someone is the same as physically attacking them, or is the same as treating them as a slave.

  28. Finns

    I’d like to see a dolphin as your gravatar.

    Intrade have started up a category for Biden to be dumped, presumably for Hillary given his comment that she might have been a better pick than him. It’s at 7%, which is about the same as Palin’s.

  29. All the fundamentals(economic) suggest the Democrats should win this election easily.
    So, you’ve got to wonder why it’s either a tie or a Republican lead?
    Obama has to be the reason – either doubts about his experience/ability to lead, or reluctance to vote for a black man, & also lingering resentment of the Hillary supporters.
    Dare I say the Democrats are well versed in the process of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?

  31. [Intrade have started up a category for Biden to be dumped, presumably for Hillary given his comment that she might have been a better pick than him. It’s at 7%, which is about the same as Palin’s.]

    Biden is the perfect person to debate Palin. Palin demonstrated in her first ABC interview that she doesn’t have the faintest idea about international relations. I mean, she seemed to have crammed some jargon words, but she couldn’t even explain the “Bush doctrine” which meant she didn’t know whether or not to say she supported it!

    http://www.abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=5783816

    In contrast, Biden is the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee.

  32. Evan14 – you just need to look at the impact of the VP selection so far.

    If Obama is such a brilliant politician, how come he picked a VP who is such a dud. What has Biden done to help Obama so far?

    If McCain is such a stupid politician, how come he picked a VP who is making the waves, and news. Put aside whether you like or dislike Palin. At least she has been a plus for McCain.

  33. Finnigans: I won’t disagree with you about Biden, Obama should have picked Hillary, simple as that! McCain has outflanked him by selecting Palin!
    I can’t see how Joe Biden helps Obama electorally!

  34. Shows On
    my wif asked what the doctrine was,I said basically it meant “you’re with us or agin us”
    would that be a fair summation?

  36. I think Nozick had the famous thought experiment about the pleasure machine, which made you deliriously happy if you lived in it? The decision is whether to live in the machine or in real life.

  37. Amigo FINNS

    Max has temporarily left Gilligans but th Island’s attraction was quality of blogging & escape from those terrible 3 Amigos psephological quality

    Must say don’t believe any of th Polls as suspect there guestimations of turnout by State ar well out as this is a unique election with oiliness and th Lady involved

  39. [would that be a fair summation?]

    That’s a fair start. But it basically meant the U.S. could act preemptively, and unilaterally whenever they felt they needed to.

    Of course, the fact the U.S. felt powerless to stop Russia invading Georgia three weeks ago, along with the fact Bush reverted to diplomacy to get nuclear material out of North Korea demonstrates that even the Bush administration now acknowledges that the Bush doctrine was a mistake.

    I mean FFS, Bush is even talking about taking troops from Iraq so he can redeploy them to Afghanistan!

  40. gusface

    It’s the “pre-emptive strike” doctrine, where you can start a war if you think the other country is a danger to you without a UN resolution. It’s pretty much a blank cheque for bombing your enemies if you can manufacture enough dodgy intel to create a threat.

  42. “It’s the “pre-emptive strike” doctrine, where you can start a war if you think the other country is a danger to you without a UN resolution. ”

    That is falso , under International law a Country can do so anyway What Bush changed was th basis of that methodiogy

  46. [I think Nozick had the famous thought experiment about the pleasure machine, which made you deliriously happy if you lived in it?]

    Yeah. I think one of the best arguments against it is that one thing that gives our lives meaning, and thus pleasure, is variety. It is possible that if we just experienced the same sort of pleasure constantly that it would reach a point that it was no longer pleasurable. So on that grounds, real life would seem to be superior. I don’t know if that is a knock out blow type of argument, but it seems to highlight one weakness in how Nozick defines pleasure.

    The crazy thing about Nozick is that he worked at Harvard along with John Rawls, who’s ‘Theory of Justice’ was diametrically opposed to Nozick’s minimalist state libertarianism. The other weird thing is they died in the same year, which happened to be the year I studied their theories as an undergrad.

  47. I’m pretty sure that most countries are released from their treaty obligations in the case of a “pre-emptive” strike. That’s how lots of countries tried to stay out of WWI and WWII.

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