US election minus 54 days

A thread for the discussion of the American elections, now a little less than eight weeks away.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

489 comments on “US election minus 54 days”

Comments Page 10 of 10
1 9 10
  1. Adam 408 – Sadly true; I originally preferred Clinton too. I still think Obama is a better prospect than some think. Despite his fairly lightweight statements he has some very good serious economists as advisers and reasonable detailed policies. Austin Goolsbee is a professor of economics at Chicago School of Economics. Whereas McCain has no personal content and is advised by a repubican politician who is really just more of the same – Phil Gramm.

    In fact, putting aside left/right preferences and considering the POTUS contest from the world’s point of view, I find it appalling that there is a 50/50 chance an economic illiterate with an ideologically driven advisor may be running the world’s largest economy at a time when it is in a mess and may drag the world into recession through cronyism and incompetence that NSW Labor would envy.

  2. Possum
    Ron – two simple words: “prove it”

    Firstly your #440 did not even seem to comprehend Hillary had made a more direct nuke threat , in fact a direct nuke threat against Iran , research

    With Obama you flew in by seat of your partisan pants with a blanket denial that that Obama statement to pre-emtively nuke Pakistan may never hav been credibly reported

    You should hav asked me to try to find that before your partisan instincts took control of your keyboard , but now if I can try to locate a credible report of same then to quote you:

    “Put it back in your pants Possum – I don’t know what parallel universe you’re absorbing your info from, but not in the one we’re all currently living in “

  3. Ron

    At 429 you made an unprompted claim “I’m not , Obama has stated he’d pe-emptively nuke Pakistan”. Others have challenged this, and rightly so. The NY Post once FALSELY caimed that Obama said the US shoudl invade Pakistan, but I have never seen anyone claim what you said.

    It would seem the onus on you is to prove your claim, or withdraw it.

  4. Possum

    Before I even try to locate where I seen it months ago , even if it was a credible report you would not be probably satisfied unless I had a YouTube recording from his own lips

  5. Well Ron it takes a big man to admit you’re wrong….

    The more research I have done, the funnier your Obama claim seems. In fact, some right wing commentators in the US have attacked Obama for being reluctant to say he would use nukes, potentially weakening the US nuclear deterrent.

  6. Socrates

    Since i’ve made th statement based on my memory of what I believed I seen many months ago , I’ve receive many “compliments” of automatic guilt or better , and with Possum I’m happy to spend th hours trying to find what I believe I saw but there’s little point even if it was credible report ..if Possum wants a Youtube recording as I don’t think it was that

  7. Possum

    I await your advice to my #465 post (addressed to Socrates)

    ps/ to those posters who’ve said i was wrong well I’ve said its based on my memory of what I believed I seen many months ago , well wrong with memory can be a two edgd sword seeing my wife happily accepts her birthday present 2 days EITHER side of her actual birthday date…but her tolerance limits extend no further

  8. New CBS POLL:
    OBAMA 49
    McCain: 44

    Obama has a large lead amongst white women!
    It seems the Sarah Palin bounce is over, and the economy is now hurting McFake.

  9. 3% MOE on that CBS poll of LVs, and with RVs the margin was the same

    Also interesting to see a new CNN/Time poll with Obama ahead by 4 in Florida (RVs 3.5% MOE), and 2 in Ohio (RVs 3% MOE)

  10. “Let’s take a test. Who does the following describe: A wealthy and hot-tempered rebel, he spent half his life fighting to live up to a famous father and grandfather, encouraged always by an indomitable mother. A self-described moderate on the campaign trail, he courts ultra-right-wing preachers behind the scenes and promises to appoint stridently conservative judges. A multimillionaire who supports more tax cuts for more millionaires, he surrounds himself with supply-siders and calls for policies that would drive us deeper into debt. The chief cheerleader for the war in Iraq, he said we’d be “welcomed as liberators” and angrily challenges anyone who questions his distorted and out-of-touch view of reality.

    A self-styled reformer, his Kitchen Cabinet is stocked with Washington lobbyists. Deeply out of touch on economic issues, he repeats nostrums like “the fundamentals are strong” even as the fundamentals are deteriorating. He carefully courts the press, who suck up to him even though he supports authoritarian policies like wiretapping Americans without a court order. He is supported by oil company lobbyists and supports drilling in some of our most sensitive ecosystems. Although he gladly accepts government health care for himself, he would abandon you to take on colossal insurance corporations on your own. Charming and disarming at first blush, his wit masks a petulant temper and a self-righteous streak that even members of his own party worry about.

    If you guessed George W. Bush, you’re right. And if you guessed John McCain, you’re also right.”

  11. There’s an awful lot of blue on the latest RCP polls. Obama and McCain are now tied nationally.
    Obama by 8% in New Mexico
    Obama by 2% in Ohio (although that’s the first he’s won there in ages)
    Florida a draw
    Only 1% behind in NC
    Obama by 2% (and behind 9% in another) in VA

    We’re comin’ back, baby!

  12. Diogenes

    I think the democrats have good reason to be optimistic from here. If they keep on about the US economy from here to November, McCain is trapped. The losses on Wall Street have not quite finished and the consequent job losses have barely started. If they want to upset the right wing nutbar element they should ask how much money the USA owes China now after eight years of republican government. The answer is a very large number of billions. It will be a millstone around the neck of every republican who voted for Bush’s tax cuts and slashing of resources for corporate regulators. McCain voted for those measures too, and should be damned for it.

  13. Juliem

    Thanks for the excellent link. As a suggestion, someone with access to the right records should check McCains voting record and statements on Bush’s budget cuts to government regulators. As the financial crisis unfolds those decisions will look increasingly stupid.

  14. Obama could have done a lot worse than choosing Bloomberg as his running mate. Every other politician is reacting to the news. Bloomberg is actually forecasting and providing advice.

    [Bloomberg said he was concerned that the credit crisis in the United States may scare off foreign investors that, until now, have been willing to buy debt that the U.S. uses to maintain a deficit.

    “It’s not clear who’s going to be buying our debt,” said Bloomberg. “It may very well be that the next wave is going to come back and bite us.”]

    Bloomberg warns of possible ‘next wave’ crisis

  15. The momentum is with Obama, as can be seen in the polls. This meltdown and McCain’s flip flopping on the economy will not help his cause at all. This could be the turning point in the campaign.

  16. from

    “This nationalization [of AIG] poses an especially large challenge for John McCain, who is now railing against corporate greed and lack of government regulation of the financial industry. What he doesn’t talk much about is how deregulation happened. It was the 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act that repealed the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act and thus eliminated the depression-era walls between between banking, investment, and insurance that made this crisis possible. Glass-Stegall erected walls between banking, investment management, and insurance, so problems in one sector could not spill over into the others, which is precisely what is happening now. The primary author of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act was none other than McCain’s economic advisor, former senator Phil Gramm (who thinks the country is in a “mental recession”). McCain fully supported the bill and has a decades-long track record of opposing government regulation of the financial industry. His new-found conversion to being a fan of regulation is going to be a tough sell as Obama is already pointing out that McCain got what he wanted (deregulation) and this is the consequence.”

    I agree with this. Although yesterday I thought McCain might benefit from the crash, because it will draw attention to Obama’s lack of qualifications to be president, I think I am now changing my mind. Deregulation is going to be a very dirty word in the US for the rest of this year.

  17. Th final 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act was passed by almost ALL Democrats and Republicans !

    Final bill passed in Senate 90 to 8 9 (& one abstain) AND in HoR 362 to 57

    One would think here support for deregrulation or sub prime loans was Republicans only , or does this point just get “narratived” away

  18. Diog,

    gee, with Wall St in ruins along side the Twin Towers. For you to exclaim:

    [We’re comin’ back, baby!]

    is an sad indictment of Obama. It should be “McCain’s in tatters”.

  19. Adam in Canberra

    “That may be true, but since Obama wasn’t in the Senate in 1999 he can try to pin this on McCain. (Did Biden vote for it?)”

    Initial bill went thought Hor and Senate along Party lines in mid 1999 and there were differences between th Hor and Senate in clauses as well , Party line voting result meant thereby allowing Clinton to veto it

    Both houses went into negotion for 4 months to resolve there differences

    FINAL BILL passed in November 1999 Senate 90 to 8 (with ONE only “no vote”) AND in HoR 362 to 57

    Biden voted “YES” ….McCain was th sole “NO VOTE”

    USA and Obama supporters preach ‘spin’

  20. Not all the Hillary supporters are going to Obama. Of course, it must be Obama’s lack of connection with the down-trodden rubes due to his high falutin’ ways.

    Let’s see… Which prominent left-wing people or groups are ditching him for McCain. Someone called Donald Trump and Lynn Forester de Rothschild. Salt of the earth, I’m sure. That’s gonna help McCain with the “little people”. 😀

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 10 of 10
1 9 10