US election minus 54 days

A thread for the discussion of the American elections, now a little less than eight weeks away.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

489 comments on “US election minus 54 days”

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  1. It’s time Obama and Biden went on the attack! If they’re going to win this thing, they can’t sit back and let the Republicans inflict blow after blow!
    One suggestion: Obama, Biden, Hillary and Bill all campaign together in Ohio, a joint rally or two!

  2. [My point is that McCain has done quite well at distancing himself from the Repub party]

    I don’t think that’s neccessarily the case. I think the whole Palin thing just overshadowed everything else since her nomination, and now the economy is back to the fore. Can’t see him avoiding some damage from the economic events this week and yet to come.

  3. Adam 400

    OK I see your point. But my point is that McCain’s attempts to distance himself from Bush economic policies that you mention are pure fiction. They shouldn’t work given half sane voters and honest reporting. Even a mediocre opponent has heaps of ammunition here to shoot the republicans down. They have run the governments finances into ruin, and let their banker buddies squander the countries private finances as well. McCain voted for all of it, and his policies are to keep doing the same.

  5. Ron, I notice you didn’t respond…

    [Ron, please point me to my posts where I said Obama was a left candidate on economics. I look forward to your response.]

    Still looking?

  6. I agree with your general point Dario. Obama can be to the left of McCain and still be a long way to the right in terms of traditional economics. Just as Rudd was to the left of Howard in the 2007 Australian election and still be (correctly) described as quite conservative from an economic viewpoint.

  7. With all these losses being racked up by US financial institutions, could someone tell me how much is a trillion. If a billion is a thousand million. Is a trillion a thousand billion?

  8. Socrates 403, I agree with you. And if the Dems had nominated Hillary Clinton, who has a long history of working on economic matters, they could now be running rings around McCain on these issues. Sadly they nominated Obama, who has no track record on this or anything else, and who has spent most of the year talking about himself. That’s why McCain has a good chance of winning, despite all the obvious reasons why he should lose.

  10. In a time of crisis, people will look for a sure hand. As Adam has said, McCain has skilfully distanced himself from the Republicans over the economy. McCain has only to reinforce the cultural stereotypes that permeate the American psyche, “you know we’re winners, We’re the greatest nation on Earth” etc. to fulfill that role.

    Obama coming in and promising change is a risk.

    People know they are in a bind. However, you need to convince them the change you offer is believable.

  12. [And if the Dems had nominated Hillary Clinton, who has a long history of working on economic matters, they could now be running rings around McCain on these issues.]

    Perhaps, but then the Repubs would have just found a different avenue to attack on. They always do.

  13. GG

    That’s exactly what McCain is saying. When challenged about his “The fundamentals of the economy are strong” he wrapped himself in the flag. He said crap like “the American worker still has the best work ethic in the world, we are the best entrepreneurs, we work the smartest, we are the most productive blah blah”. It’s all complete BS but they love that kind of crap and any argument that it is BS is unpatriotic.

  14. Diogenes,

    You are looking at it from an Australian perspective. These coves actually believe.

    You, of all posters should understand how people react under stress.

    BTW, McCain is trying to win an election and will say what is neccessary to get over the line.

  15. Took th bait there Dario , thought you would , so you acknowledge Obama is a long way to the right in terms of traditional economics What you fail to understand is that economic model either negates or limits traditional ‘left’ equity & social policys with Obama’s opposition to th Edwards/Hillary universal healthcare plan only one example

    A phoney ‘left’ candidate , actualy Obama reminds me in many ways of th wet Andrew Peacock

  19. GG

    Absolutely, they do believe it. And you’re right about making a decision under pressure. Studies show that the first thing most people do under pressure is reduce the amount of information they consider. The next thing they do is put their undying faith in a leader and follow him/her. A simple strong economic message from a credible person would win this election as 40% rate the economy as the number 1 issue (Iraq was 10%, terrorism was even less).

    I wouldn’t trust any of those four candidates with the economy, except maybe Biden. Al Gore would have won easily, as would have Hillary (esp with Bill’s economic credentials in tow).

  21. Dario

    You may not believe this but Ron started out with the elitist lefties, like me, as an Obama supporter. Those were the good old days. Then GG and Finns stole his soul and corrupted him.

  26. Greensborough Growler

    “Ron,
    Peacock had a better suntan.”

    Thats true , although Andrew lacked Obama’s slippery polish in telling porkies , but many similarities there Andrew Peacok & Obama

    Don’t flatter yourself Diogenes never would be with you intellegentsia elitists yous were incidental accidents , just thought initialy he may be Hillary-premium but Obama slippered up with a disengenuous universal healthcare speech qualification that was indeed opposition to it thats when I knew he was a poney phoney You guys ar still bedazzled by oratory & “liberally” because he’s black

  27. “I hate to think what will happen if the Pakistani’s were to fire on the US soldiers”.

    Frankly, I doubt if the US would have any choice but to live with it. Just shows – US power isn’t what it once was.

  28. It’s hard to start a war against the military but not the civilian government. It seems there is a split between the two arms. The article says that the civilian rulers say the solution should be diplomatic.

    I, for one, am very reassured that Pakistan has the atomic bomb.

  30. Ron

    I was being facetious. Pakistan’s nukes won’t reach the US so MAD isn’t likely to persuade the US not to use them. I’m not sure they even reach Israel.

  34. I see the latest Gallup is 47-46 in McCain’s favour. So I guess the Palin bump is over. Though you could argue were it not for her Obama would have kept the nice lead he had after the DNC.

    I think those who were giving the election to McCain after Palin’s first week may have jumped the gun just a tad.

  35. Put it back in your pants Ron – I don’t know what parallel universe you’re absorbing your info from, but in the one we’re all currently living in, Obama has done no such thing.

    The very idea of a multilateralist Democratic presidential contender even suggesting, let alone suggesting publically, that a doctrine of pre-emptive nuclear strike is one that he’s adopting is so deranged it defies belief!

    It is such nonsense on so many levels that it really must be the full moon.

    Try this:
    Obama says no nuclear weapons to fight terror
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20093852/

    Honestly….

  37. William

    I can only asume Possum’s comment #435 does not reach that level , not that I am complaining about that post at all , as i’ve never objected to anyone’s post directed to me

    As to Pakistan & nukes , posters should do there own research before making a denial off there own partisan instincts

  40. She did Grog @ 436 – in her most desperate hour when she started almost to channel Republican talking point memo’s she said of Obama’s stance re:’nukes off the table for Pakistan’, “I don’t believe that any president should make any blanket statements with respect to the use or non-use of nuclear weapons”.

    That’s as close as she got – which, to be fair, has been pretty much the official US national security position on nuclear weapons deployment since Truman… official ambiguity of varying musculature, depending on what the politics of the day require.

  42. [Put it back in your pants Ron – I don’t know what parallel universe you’re absorbing your info from, but in the one we’re all currently living in, Obama has done no such thing.]

    Ron does seem to be from another planet some times Poss, I’ll grant you that…

  43. Grog, if McCain wins it does make you wonder if we’ll get a bucket full of those kind of WTF moments.

    I’m actually starting to wonder if the US establishment will step into the campaign soon? McCain is getting old, Palin is a high risk replacement if McCain dies. McCain is getting a bit unpredictable in a way that could accidentally damage US interests.

    The world is demanding that the US clean up their financial system – and if the US doesn’t it will be the US that will suffer as the world simply deploys their capital elsewhere as a consequence. McCain won’t be up to that job, and his hangers on like Gramm that are advising him on this arent really establishment figures in the true sense of the world, but relatively new money blow-ins that arent particularly important in the broader scheme of things.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some unusual Democrat endorsements over the next few weeks.

  44. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some unusual Democrat endorsements over the next few weeks.”

    Fine, as long as the dopey Hollywood types keep their big mouths shut.

    Each time a celebrity slags off McCain and Palin, the Republicans’ chances improve. You’d think the beautiful people would get it, after all this time.

  48. Denying Hillary said she’d said nuke Iran IF nukes were in the air from Iran heading towards Israel (which is not pre emptive) , AND denying Obama said he’d pre- emptiverly nuke Pakistan , shows Obama supporters live in self denial of reality and do not do sufficent research , very ordinary

  49. Dyno – I saw the Matt Damon one the other day.

    For the love of god let’s pray that there wont be another writer’s stike between now and Nov 4!

    All those celebrities with all that free time – it’d be by by Obama!

    Then again, there was always Reagan and the Governator…

    And who can say with a straight face that if Scarlett Johansson stoof for Congress she wouldnt get elected? :mrgreen:

    Ron – two simple words: “prove it”

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