9.07am. There is now a notional count for Morley on the WAEC site (don’t ask me where it went last night), and it looks clear the Liberals have in fact won. So Labor needs to win Riverton, Forrestfield and Albany, and is not looking the goods in the former.
2.25am. Revised final call for the evening. The ABC gives the Liberals eight definite gains from Labor: Bunbury, Darling Range, Jandakot, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Ocean Reef, Southern River and Swan Hills. However, I think Wanneroo can probably be added to the list. They also have their nose in front in Riverton and are very likely to pull further ahead in late counting, and a good chance of reining in Labor’s 166-vote lead in Morley and 242-vote lead in Forrestfield. However, Labor is 117 votes ahead in the notional Liberal seat of Albany, and the Liberals have lost Kalgoorlie to an independent likely to back Labor. If Labor can win three out of Riverton, Morley, Forrestfield and Albany, there might yet be a minority Labor government. However, it needs to be remembered that outside of the Mining and Pastoral region, Labor did about 2 per cent worse on non-booth votes than booth votes in 2005, to their cost in late counting. Kwinana appears to have fallen to independent Carol Adams, so any Labor government would be hanging on for dear life with the support of two independents.
1.53am. Hmm – and we’ve also got North West as “Labor win” now. Would like a clearer idea of what’s happened here – possibly an unexpected Nationals preference flow. The WAEC site says 4729 to 3985, which is unequivocal. There might be life yet in this game.
1.16am. ABC computer has moved Wanneroo from Liberal “gain” to “ahead”. Labor in fact leads by six votes, but extrapolating the pattern of late voting from last time puts the Liberals 0.6 per cent ahead.
11.59pm. An intriguing development in Morley, which has gone from Liberal win to “ALP ahead” on the ABC computer, presumably involving official preference figures (the WAEC doesn’t have such a thing on its site as the original D’Orazio-versus-Labor count was junked). If Labor does win Morley, a majority for Labor plus Labor independents becomes mathematically possible again, requiring wins in Riverton (Labor trails by 32 votes), Forrestfield (leads by 242 votes) and Collie-Preston (leads by 416 votes). However, Labor tends not to do very well in late counting.
10.48pm. The Liberals have gained Ocean Reef, North West, Jandakot, Swan Hills, Mount Lawley, Bunbury, Darling Range, Kingsley, Wanneroo, Southern River and apparently Morley. Varying degrees of doubt remain about Riverton, Forrestfield, Collie-Preston and Morley. Labor might make a notional gain of Albany. Former Labor independent John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie from the Liberals. Labor may have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams. Independents Janet Woollard in Alfred Cove and Sue Walker in Nedlands may or may not lose their seats to the Liberals. The numbers are 27 to 29 for Labor plus Labor independents, with either one or two of the latter; 26 to 28 for the Liberals plus Liberal independents, also with one to three of the latter; and four for the Nationals.
10.33pm. ABC computer has Southern River back as Liberal win.
10.26pm. Primary votes in Southern River are Liberal 45.5 per cent, Labor 39.2 per cent, Greens 10.1 per cent, CDP plus Family First 5.5 per cent. The latter would make it very tough for Labor indeed.
10.24pm. ABC computer only has Southern River as “LIB ahead”, when the consensus seems to be that it’s gone.
10.17pm. Morley: Labor 36.0 per cent, Liberal 34.0 per cent, John D’Orazio 17.4 per cent. D’Orazio himself presumably knows something about it, and seems to think his preferences will give it to the Liberals. With the Greens vote on 7.6 per cent, I wouldn’t be so sure quite yet.
10.09pm. Alfred Cove still complicated: Liberal 43.4 per cent, Janet Woollard 25.5 per cent, Labor 20.1 per cent, Greens 9.4 per cent. Not sure what chance of Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Woollard.
10.05pm. Carpenter not conceding.
10.02pm. So a left-right split of between 15-21 and 17-19. Greens one to five. Nationals one to four. Zero to three for the religious parties.
10.00pm. To clarify, this upper house stuff is based on very sketchy educated guesses following on from lower house trends.
10.00pm. Upper house part six: Mining and Pastoral. Upredictable, but very likely three left, three right. Greens and Nationals both in contention.
9.56pm. Upper house part five: Agricultural. Labor not certain of two seats: could be three Liberal, one Nationals and one Family First, or maybe two Nationals.
9.52pm. Upper house part four: South West. Looking like a close shave between four-two and three-all between right and left. A third left seat would certainly go to Greens. Family First and the Nationals in the mix for the three or four right seats.
9.45pm. Upper house part three: South Metropolitan. Liberals likely to have done well enough to have won a third seat, which if true is very bad news for Labor. Could be three Liberal, three Labor; or three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens.
9.42pm. Steven Smith says last Forrestfield booth good for Labor, returning it to lineball. But nobody doubts the Liberals have won Wanneroo, which decides the issue.
9.41pm. Upper house part two: North Metropolitan. Unlikely to be other than Liberal 3, Labor 2, Greens 1.
9.38pm. Upper house part one: East Metropolitan. The swing here might just be at that exact point it needed to be to give the CDP the final seat; it could otherwise go to the Greens. Other than that, Labor three and Liberals two.
9.33pm. Consensus seems to be Liberal Bill Marmion will defeat Sue Walker in Nedlands. The consensus probably knows something I don’t: figures are Liberal 43.6 per cent, Walker 23.5 per cent, Labor 16.4 per cent, Greens 14.1 per cent. Are Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Walker?
9.31pm. The Greens still looking likely to fall short of overtaking the Liberals in Fremantle. McGinty on 38.9 per cent, Liberal 29.7 per cent and Greens 27.7 per cent, with the only preferences to come Family First and CDP.
9.27pm. In Kwinana, independent Carol Adams is well ahead of the Liberal, 24.4 per cent to 16.9 per cent, and very likely to ride over Labor on 39.6 per cent.
9.22pm. John Bowler also playing the leverage game.
9.17pm. Labor apparently think they’re gone in Forrestfield, yet with apparently all booths in they have a lead on the primary vote and likely to go further ahead on Greens preferences. Obviously I’m missing something here. Smith sounding modestly confident about Albany.
9.15pm. Brendon Grylls of the Nationals talking tough on who he’ll support, no doubt for leverage purposes.
9.12pm. Looks like all the booths are in from Wanneroo, and it’s the straw that’s broken the camel’s back. The Liberals lead 43.6 to 40.3 per cent, the Greens are on 8.6 per cent and apparently flowing weakly to Labor, and the CDP and Family first (5.3 per cent between them) would be going the other way. Most likely result looks like Labor with maybe 25 or 26 plus two Labor independents, with 30 required for a majority.
9.07pm. ABC computer gives Fremantle back to the Greens, but with 46.1 per cent counted and the computer’s unreliable record in calling contests involving the Greens.
9.05pm. Julie Bishop pretty much calling a Labor defeat.
9.03pm. Smith now sounding gloomy about Forrestfield as well as Wanneroo, and they need to hold both. Riverton and Collie-Preston very close; Labor 300 votes ahead in Albany.
9.02pm. Situation confused in Kwinana, but Antony Green and Stephen Smith seem to think the independent Carol Adams will win it.
9.01pm. Labor lead dwindling in Albany.
8.59pm. Regarding Fremantle: The gap between the Liberals and Greens is getting very wide though.
8.58pm. A reader says I’m too quick to write off the Greens in Fremantle, which may well be right.
8.57pm. ABC has Liberal 1.3 per cent ahead in Wanneroo, which would mean the end for Labor if so. But Antony Green warns that projections can be unreliable in this kind of growth corridor seat.
8.55pm. ABC computer giving North West to Labor, confirming what we’ve been hearing via scrutineers for a while.
8.54pm. ABC computer calling Collie-Preston for Labor.
8.51pm. Seats crucial to the outcome according to ABC commentators: Albany (51-49), Collie-Preston (51-49, big booth to come), Riverton (shaky), Wanneroo (49-51), Forrestfield (50-50), Joondalup (looking good for Labor). Labor would need to win all of them.
8.50pm. Labor clearly home in Joondalup, the 1.5 per cent swing very surprising under the circumstances.
8.48pm. Labor still ahead in Albany with 33.5 per cent now counted, after being stuck on 17 per cent for a long time. But the big booths in Albany proper as opposed to the rural hinterland could yet reverse this.
8.46pm. ABC computer calling Kalgoorlie for John Bowler, so there’s one piece of good news for Labor. ABC has given Kwinana back to Labor, formerly given to independent Carol Adams.
8.45pm. ABC now calling Wanneroo for the Liberals. Morley depends on John D’Orazio’s preferences, with reason to believe they will cost Labor the seat. Chamber graphic says Labor 29 seats, but that’s at the upper range of what seems likely. If it’s true there might yet be a minority government with support from John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.
8.43pm. Raw primary vote with 46.3 per cent counted: Labor down 6.2 per cent to 35.7 per cent, Liberal up 3.3 per cent to 39.0 per cent, Nationals up 1.2 per cent to 4.8 per cent, Greens up 3.9 per cent to 11.5 per cent. If that holds, the pollsters have done very well, but maybe calculated the 2PP wrong due to mistaken preference assumptions.
8.42pm. Jim McGinty’s scare over in Fremantle. As I was about to say, parts of Fremantle are migrant and low-income areas that don’t vote Greens, but other parts are very bohemian.
8.41pm. ABC computer still calling Joondalup for Labor, which I thought they would have dropped at a losing election.
8.40pm. Liberal Riverton candidate Mike Nahan complaining of expensive Labor campaign in Riverton, but says it has come at the expense of Labor defeats in Southern River and Jandakot.
8.38pm. Talk of Greens preferences overall behaving in peculiar ways. Labor can normally depend on at least 70 per cent of them and is reportedly not getting them.
8.35pm. 37.5 per cent counted in Fremantle, parts of which are greener than others, but Greens well ahead of Liberal 29.5 per cent to 27.3 per cent and Jim McGinty on a very weak 39.9 per cent. Parts of Fremantle are greener than others, but McGinty in big trouble from there.
8.34pm. Looks like I wreak havoc wherever I tread – LP now crashing. Have added what I posted there below.
8.30pm. Steven Smith calling Morley for the Liberals, but thinks John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie. Thinks Albany in play, but we’ve heard nothing about it from ages. Collie-Preston, Riverton, Joondalup, Forrestfield and Wanneroo all more or less 50-50. Outer limits of best case scenario for Labor means minority government plus John Bowler.
8.20pm. Thanks Mark. Labor can only afford to lose nine seats.
Labor losses: Darling Range, Ocean Reef, Bunbury, Jandakot, Mt Lawley, Southern River, Swan Hills, Kingsley
Labor in trouble: Forrestfield, Wanneroo, North West, Wanneroo.
Close: Forrestfield, Collie-Preston, Joondalup, Riverton, Morley.
Miracles Labor can hope for: Albany, independent John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.
Shocks: Labor appears to have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams, and Jim McGinty might lost Fremantle to the Greens.
8.25pm. I’ve taken it over to Larvatus Prodeo.
8.13pm. Labor still ahead in Collie-Preston, just barely, with almost all booths counted.
8.10pm. ABC calling Joondalup for Labor, but I wouldn’t stake the bank on that yet.
8.08pm. Forrestfield “in trouble”, Steven Smith almost calling it.
8.06pm. Contest narrowing in Wanneroo …
8.06pm. But Matt Birney’s critique of The West up in lights.
8.05pm. Regarding the outages, I’ve just written to Larvatus Prodeo to see if I can do my live blog there, so keep an eye out there if I go down here for the long-term.
8.04pm. Matt Birney not sounding certain though.
8.01pm. Swing showing to Labor in Scarborough – probably an anomaly or an error.
8.00pm. Liberal also ahead in Forrestfield.
7.53pm. Labor out of the woods in Kimberley.
7.52pm. Now also chat of poor Greens preference flow, which if accurate means even bigger trouble.
7.48pm. Definite losses: Bunbury, Jandakot, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Ocean Reef, Darling Range. Big trouble: Wanneroo, Swan Hills, North West (though Swan Hills down from “LIB WIN” to “LIB AHEAD”). Possibly Labor gain in Albany, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Nothing lately from Kalgoorlie.
7.46pm. So Mount Lawley gone. Smith seems to think Labor need to win all of Wanneroo, Southern River, Joondalup, Riverton, Collie-Preston, and at least one of those seems unlikely. Swan Hills, North West gone … you’d almost start thinking about calling it.
7.45pm. News flash – early double digit swing in Wanneroo, computer calls it for Liberal.
7.44pm. No, Labor now ahead in Collie-Preston. The moral of the story is that these early ABC calls are probably less reliable than normal due to the redistribution and perhaps the high non-major party vote.
7.42pm. ABC calls Ocean Reef and Collie-Preston for Liberal.
7.40pm. I’m back … Labor appear to be conceding Mount Lawley, but they’re holding on in Riverton and might even win Albany, although I wouldn’t be sure about the latter – this will be the rural booths where Labor didn’t campaign in the past. The city booths could still lose it for them.
7.35pm. Labor back ahead in Riverton.
7.32pm. Bad news continues to accumulate for Labor – Liberal now ahead in Riverton.
7.31pm. Liberal now ahead in Alfred Cove.
7.29pm. It’s calling Cannington for Liberal is well. Labor had better hope that there are a lot of anomalies coming through at the moment.
7.28pm. ABC calls Mount Lawley for Liberal with double digit swing.
7.27pm. ABC calls Pilbara for Liberal, which means it’s all over if so. I wouldn’t call that seat quite yet, but a number of bad results are accumulating for Labor.
7.25pm. Stephen Smith suggests trouble in North West as well. I believe what he just said about Riverton is out of date now, i.e. a new booth has been better for them.
7.24pm. One piece of good news for Labor: swing in Riverton a manageable 0.6 per cent with 8.9 per cent counted.
7.24pm. ABC computer has Liberals ahead in Kimberley with 7.9 per cent swing, 5.3 per cent counted.
7.18pm. Very ugly swing against Labor in Cannington also.
7.18pm. Third news flash: Also calls Southern River for Liberal. Huge trouble for Labor if this keeps up.
7.17pm. Another news flash: ABC calls Jandakot for Liberal, 10 per cent swing from 6.6 per cent. Big shock.
7.14pm. News flash: ABC calls Swan Hills for Liberal. I wouldn’t quite call it yet: 6.6 per cent swing from 5.9 per cent counted not good for Labor though.
7.13pm. ABC calls Morley for Labor, but its judgements can be awry when independents are involved. John D’Orazio not looking in the hunt.
7.16pm. ABC calls Scarborough for Liberal, 3.9 per cent swing from 18.8 per cent counted.
7.13pm. I speak too soon – now “LIB AHEAD” by 0.4 per cent, 25.7 per cent counted.
7.12pm. Labor still highly competitive in Collie-Preston with 22.6 per cent counted.
7.10pm. ABC computer has “ALP AHEAD” in Albany, but only 5.2 counted.
7.09pm. First two Nedlands booths encouraging for Sue Walker.
7.09pm. First booth from Swan Hills, Gidgegannup Town Hall, gives Labor a dangerous 7.1 per cent Liberal swing.
7.08pm ABC computer calls Kalamunda for Liberals.
7.06pm. Labor might be a little troubled by 5.5 per cent swing from 5.5 per cent counted in Girrawheen, if it proves typical for the northern suburbs.
7.04pm. Labor doing a little better than I had expected in the first rural booths from Collie-Preston.
7.03pm. ABC computer calls Bunbury for Liberal – 9.5 per cent swing from 6.3 per cent counted.
6.58pm. Early Alfred Cove results show Janet Woollard might struggle to get ahead of Labor – down to Greens preferences. This from the Labor-voting end of the electorate though.
6.51pm. Two good early booths in for Labor from West Swan, maybe boding well for them in Swan Hills.
6.50pm. Julie Bishop reading too much into early Morley figures.
6.49pm. Very strong performance from Bowler also on early pre-poll votes.
6.47pm. Very encouraging first booth for John Bowler in Kalgoorlie – Kalgoorlie District Education Office, 434 votes.
6.42pm. Only 289 votes, but the Lower Kalgan Hall booth in Albany has swung heavily to Labor.
6.29pm. “Early Votes (In Person)” starting to appear – pre-polls, in other words.
6.28pm. Very first rural booths show encouraging signs for the Nationals.
6.00pm. Welcome everybody. Polling booths are now closed: very first results should be in from about 20 minutes. While away the time by viewing my election day snaps, and keep an eye on the tussle for Mayo in the thread below.
whats this about morley being lost now?
Two questions. Firstly, among those of you who have been following this election closely, what is the present state of the house in terms of seats definitely won and what is the (range of) likely final outcome(s)? Secondly, why is everyone subscribing to the school of thought that the ALP will not do well on preferences? I thought the convetional wisdom is that the party holding a seat tends to do better as they have more resources to arrange postals. Is there something peculiar about this poll? The redistribution shouldn’t matter if its still ALP territory
Some of the ALP types in here need to do a reality check
35% of WA voted for a Carpenter WA government
that is slightly above 1 in 3
WA has spoken and they are saying they do not want a government that is corrupt (Burke and ACCC), lazy (done nothing for 8 years despite hugh surplus, and winfall once in a lifetime revenue and arrogant.
Only 1 in 3 wants that
Apart from the
1. philosophical difference between National (Conservative) and Labor (Progressive)
2. the fact that most of National’s constituency voted Labor last in the election last night
3. National often had Labor/green last in senate election and htv cards
Why would Nat wants to join a corupt, lazy and arrogant government that 2 in 3 do not want
Unless Labor offer the world (Maybe the premier and vice premier) to the National, there is NO reason for Nat to support Labor
sorry, correction to my post (852) – meant to say not do well on POSTALS (rather than preferences)
Wakefield at 846
Labor has been trying to turn the Upper House into a one-vote one-value style upper house for years.
The current system is a compromise originally reached between Labor and the Nats in the 1980s and the new system is what the Greens wanted. They had this strange idea of the Upper House being equivalent to the Senate. I think Labor was happy with the regions, but wanted them weighted per population.
The misapportionment in the Upper House is quite extreme on paper, but strangely enough, the result is not as unrepresentative of the vote as would be expected.
The greens of course have come (I would assume) to realise that 6 is not the best outcome.
5 regions of 7 would have produced a better result – but that might have required changing the power of the President of the Council in the result of a deadlock.
853
and only 38%, slightly above 1 in 3, voted for the chair-sniffers…
add that to your ‘reality check’… 😉
As another Chris, I’ll have a bash for you!
By my reckoning, Labor have won Armadale, Balcatta, Bassendean, Belmont, Cannington, Cockburn, Collie-Preston, Fremantle, Girrawheen, Gosnells, Joondalup, Kimberley, Mandurah, Maylands, Midland, Mindarie, Nollamara, North West, Perth, Pilbara, Rockingham, Victoria Park, Warnbro, West Swan and Willagee for a total of 25 definites.
The Liberals have won Bateman, Bunbury, Carine, Cottesloe, Darling Range, Dawesville, Eyre, Geraldton, Hillarys, Jandakot, Kalamunda, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Murray-Wellington, Nedlands, Ocean Reef, Scarborough, South Perth, Southern River, Swan Hills and Vasse for 21 definites.
The Nats have won Blackwood-Stirling, Central Wheatbelt, Moore and Wagin.
Liz Constable and Janet Woollard have won Churchlands and Alfred Cove as Independent Liberals.
John Bowler and Carol Adams have won Kalgoorlie and Kwinana as Independent Labors.
That means it’s currently 27-27 between left and right with Albany, Forrestfield, Morley, Riverton and Wanneroo as the five too close to calls. Wanneroo and Morley are probably gone for Labor (though I can’t find William’s notional figures anywhere), Albany looks the best for them, Tony McRae will be hoping that incumbency and a recount can help him, while it’s anyone’s guess in Forrestfield.
Probably the most likely outcome right now is ALP 27, Lib 24, Nat 4, Ind Lib 2 and Ind Lab 2. Extremely close finish.
WHY DOES EVERYONE KEEP CLAIMING THE LIBS HAVE WON THIS ELECTION?
Last time I checked to win elections you need at least 50% of the seats.
No one has won anything, in fact Labor according to ABC Election data is 1 seat ahead.
Thanks Talkon – that’s a lot easier to follow than the ABC computer for this election (no criticism of Antony and the ABC intended – its just one of those elections)
re 857
The media are making it out as such so if Labor scraped through they can try and whip up a huge backlash
Are nationals preferences favouring Labor in North West? Seems hard to otherwise explain Lib 25 + Nat 24 equalling a Labor win with a swing to it.
Unless there’s lots of pre-polls from Aboriginal communities and mining towns??
857, 859,
The Libs haven’t won, and, indeed, may not do so.
But considering the circumstances under which the election was called, it’s a crap result for Labor, even if they manage to hang on in a minority government.
According to 6PR Midday News, Barnett was trying ring Brendan Gryls – Gryls was not answering his phone.
I think that’s saying a lot 🙂
I am looking at North West as well, Who is the Ind preferencing? if it is the Nat, I think the Nats get in front of Liberal (Sweetman) and should win on Liberal preference
I do not think it is clear cut that Labor has won this
Can anyone tell me
Love the plenitude of opinion and paucity of facts from the conservative commenators. The fact is there was a 6% swing away from Labor and a 2.6% swing to the libs – that is not a ringing endorsement and it’s not a mandate to do anything at all. People may not want a Carpenter Govt but on current numbers I don’t think you can claim they want a Barnett govt either. This election just didn’t register with ordinary voters and they were not happy with either major party – you could see it if you were working on a polling booth instead of sitting in front of your computer waiting for results.
After the euphoria has died down on their side, and the low has lifted on the labor side, it’s going to be an interesting 4 years: most probable scenario, government by a recently unelectable, and still unrepresentative coalition (they are failing to represent 51% of west australians – their most senior female MP is a former party rat!) led by a lazy chubby silvertail who gave more effusive thanks in his victory speech to someone named ‘Narelle’ than to his wife who was standing beside him (Was I the only person who noticed that?? ‘Narelle kept me relaxed the whole time… perhaps too relaxed’… ), and an opposition enlivened by some new MP’s in safe seats from the ALP left.
Not much for Burke and D’Orazio to work with and lots of material for the ALP if they can keep their shit together.
LaborVoter
puhlease. ONLY a lobor voter would think they still had a chance!!
This doesn’t look over yet.
The ALP are in front in 28 seats, including slim leads in Wanneroo, Forrestfield, Collie, North West and Albany. Labor are only 32 votes behind in Riverton.
Throw in two Labor leaning independents in Kwinana and Kalgoorlie and the ALP get to 30 or 31 seats if Riverton improves
I spoke to Vince’s Campaign Manager (she’s my second Cousin) – North West is definatly Labor 🙂
Then how come Antony called it for Sweetman?
Interesting!!
Regardless of one’s politics this has to be seen as one of the more remarkable election results with a Government with a healthy majority a booming economy and an opposition that seemed completely disfuntional yet we have an election that is too close to call.
Can the Nations form a government with the ALP in short yes! and there are precentants for the National not backing a Liberal government ironically Victoria (birthplace of the Liberal Party) comes to mind
In 1935 the Nationals chose to not support a Liberal Government they instead formed a Government that lasted until the mid 1940s
It was for this reason that Sir Henry Bolte never trusted the Nationals.
People say that if the Nationals don’t support the Liberals they will be wiped out but this misses one key aspect, due to the fact the ALP would require the Nationals to pass any legisation the Nationals can claim to be the actual Government therefore they set the agenda.
Someone suggest rural communities don’t like the ALP! that is true but we should remember that all politics is local and as long as local issues are dealt with as the community expects and the National Party drags the ALP away from the sorts of ideas that upset conservative minded people then it can work.
People have written that such a parteship cannot work but again can I draw your attention that both major parties have major divides that for most part don’t stop the majors from governing.
For example what does a Higgins Liberal have in common with a Kalgoorlie Liberal or a Kingaroy National yet they can sit together under the Liberal/National banner and no one thinks twice.
Just as what does an inner city chardy drinking ALP person have in common with a Mining town ALP person, again no one thinks twice.
Sure logis says the Nats will join with the Liberals but there is no rule that says they must.
The main reason why the rural communities get up set with city based pollies from both sides is there communities have different Interest.
From my reading of the nmbers the ALP could be returned with a similar situation to that faced by Bracks who needed the support of three Independants
Those Indepenants held rural conservate seats
Savage (Mildura) lost his seat due to a toxic dump project he supported
Ingerman (Gippsland East) Still a popular MP and should hold his seat at the next election
Davies (Gippsland West) Lost her seat in part due to a major redistribution which moved her seat in the outer suburbs
The point is minority Governments are not uncommon and can work if the Government of the day wants it to work.
Having a Majority does not make you a good Government anymore than a minority Government is a bad Government
It seems to me that Mr Grylls is playing a smart political game, however in the end the vast majority of National voters, me included, require the removal of the labor government. If the Nationals negotiate with labor and labor remains in power then I will never again vote National and I would suggest there are many people out there would feel the same.
So….if the nationals join with labor then they have a very short life span and I do not think they will destroy their long term political future for short term policy gain. Even Mr Grylls is more intelligent than this.
However, this assumes Labor cannot form a minority government without the Nats….maybe they can…..anything is possible at this stage.
re post 856…. I think you are probably right max for labor would be 28
but 27 or less would be more likely
what happens if a lib held seats goes to the court of disputed returns?
Talkon @ 856
Personally, I’m expecting William to dip his lid given my prediction last week of
ALP 27
Lib 24
NP 4
Ind 4
867- Good post Mex
And lets not forget the current SA situation regarding a popular ALP/Nat partnership to the benefit of the state
BBD, there is a reason why there is only 1 Nat MP in SA!
They sold themselves out by backing the Left. How many other Nats hold regional seats in SA Federally or State wide than Maylands???
0
The Nats will form with the Liberals, the Nationals voters voted against Carpenter and would never forgive an unholy coalition with the ALP.
Colin just has to broker a deal/partnership with them for supply issues and no confidence votes. Then have Woollard as Speaker if she wins Alfred Cove.
Simple.
How on earth will WA voters stomach 4 years of a Corrupt ALP Govt propped up by the WA Nationals….they’ll be a bloody revolution there!
A few observations on WA, Lyne and Mayo:
The ALP achieved 41.9% primary vote in 2005 and was tracking at 41-42% primary vote all this year. The L/NP combined vote was stuck at a paltry 36.5% for 2008, but the moment the change of leader happened and the election was called, their primary vote jumped to 43.5%, stayed there for the campaign, and was the actual result last night. The ALP started the campaign at over 41% but crashed during the campaign to 37% and achieved just under 36% last night.
It looks to me that once the Liberal party replaced its leader with someone reasonably credible, they were always going to be competitive, and once the election was called early, Carpenter was going to have to convey a compelling reason for doing so, otherwise he would be seen as a rank opportunist, and would be punished accordingly. It seems he couldn’t convey a compelling reason and the drop off in the ALP’s primary vote was the result.
Now there are a whole range of opinions being pushed to spin the results around the nation last night to suit whomever is doing the talking.
The WA result had bugger all to do with Federal issues, it was a reaction to the change in leader and Carpenter’s opportunism. There is no start of a decline in federal Labor’s support, if anything, a L/NP Govt in WA will be more beneficial in the next Federal election for the ALP.
The Lyne result, is in part a rejection of the Nationals, but it didn’t go to the ALP, so it’s not as significant as some people believe.
The Mayo result, is also in part a rejection of the Libs, but without an ALP candidate, it was much easier for the voters to put the boot into the sitting party holder, without the risk of changing Govt’s, or in the belief of many, taking the seat away from the Libs. Yes, it was close, but they still won it.
The conclusions: only those in the political industry will read much into these results, but in truth, there’s not much to read. Except – voters don’t like being taken for granted and being taken for mugs, and all three elections last night were heavily influenced by those factors. The Nationals got a kick in Lyne and the Libs in Mayo for being lazy this year and also forcing the voters to return to the polls, and the ALP got a big boot in the coit for all the reasons stated above.
All three in my view, were entirely justifiable.
I repeat what William said in his blog at the top of this page:
“However, it needs to be remembered that outside of the Mining and Pastoral region, Labor did about 2 per cent worse on non-booth votes than booth votes in 2005, to their cost in late counting.”
2005 was when Labor was relatively popular. This election their primary vote has fallen.
Labor will not make up ground, they will lose ground in counting to come.
Quick note from the Kimberleys (was there until Saturday) – the best slogan I have ever seen was for the Liberal candidate (who looks a bit like a cross between MichelleGrattan and Dame Edna)-… “Strewth – It’s Ruth” plastered all over the place. ROTFLMFAO.
Aristotle @ 876,
As good a summary of last night’s festivities as I have read anywhere!
Key theme: incumbents who stuff around are going to get kicked – hard.
Are Lib Losers in here still trying to claim you have won the election with less than 50% of the seats??
Hate to break it to you rabble, but you didn’t win anything. Whoever forms the next government looks to have their goolies in the hands of the independents.
It is still better for WA than having a Corrupt ALP administration in for another 4 years!
The ALP lost 10 seats, its over LV!
Get used to Premier Colin Barnett….
I should hope we’ll have a new Government by next week.
Aristotle
claps clap clap
LaborVoter
Labor form government then Yes – Progressive needing help from Conservative
Liberal No – the 2 Lib independants quit because of Sniffler, they like Barnett
Lib – Nat Partnership has survived Federally, in NSW, WA, Vic, NT and QLD
A conservative partnership would be seemless
Anyone know what happens to legislation, planning approvals and the like while we’re waiting for our new govt? Does it have to wait, or are ALP still considered to have authority for such things?
Perhaps LaborVoter is Carps in disguise!
Helen the Departments will carry on with the routine stuff until the new ministry is sworn in.
Helen 1t 884,
Legislation can only be made by Parliament, so any bills in Parliament that were in progress need to be re-introduced.
Planning approvals etc which do not require a minister can continue. The departments are in caretaker mode, but anything that is run of the mill can continue. Anything that requires a Minister is on hold during the campaign until the result is clear. The Ministers still have their commissions so they are the Ministers still.
886 steve – thanks Steve, but what does the outgoing mob do if they wanted that particular item signed off, knowing that the incoming mob didn’t want it?
It’s what you call tough bikies. Anything controversial waits for the new minister.
What about this scenario?
The Nats continue to say they will not form a coalition with either party and will not say how they intend to vote when there is a confidence vote.
So when Parliament gets recalled Labor are still the Govt. The Govenor must allow Labor to try to form a Govt. because they have the most seats.
This saga has weeks to run. 😛
839
Glen Says:
September 7th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Peter any government that loses 10+ seats has got to go!
Especially considering how the results will end up, with prepoll and postals
So Glen me darlin’, does this mean your buddy Howie should have thrown in the towel in 1998, when he lost 18+ seats and the two party vote?
Oh wait… he was a Liberal… so that’s OK.
If things keep on playing out the way they are, WA can expect to be back to the polls soon
Carps will roll soon, Mr Wyatt will be the new Premier perhaps
Ben Wyatt- The Barrack Obama of WA politics- hahah it makes a catchy head line
ruawake, the story continues… Labor then loses in a no confidence motion, the rabble can’t bring themselves to sign an agreement and lose a no confidence vote and an election is called…
LaborVoter,
Hate to break it you, loser, Carps and your beloved Labor party got rolled big time last night.
There’s not much to salvage. An attocious primary vote, a looming corruption inquiry and an opposition which was well nigh unlectable four weeks prior has just left you guys out on your arse.
Have a nice four years!
A-C
If the Libs are as wonderful as suggest then we will have a nice four years wont we?
better hospitals, education, law and order and surely the boom wont slow?
“have a nice four years” makes it sound like you know the working classes are about to suffer or something? I have no clue as to where you would come up with an idea like that???
LaborVoter just got owned big time.
RE: ‘working class suffering’
Mate, Rudd’s doing most of the hard yards on that front.
A-c 898
great to see the blame game between states and federal have begun so soon
Typical Labor BBD, it all has to come down to class struggle doesn’t it?
Maybe that’s why you’ve been so rejected last night!
Enjoy the next few months indeed, a new Premier, Colin Barnett, the CCC report and the Gas Explosion report. Geee its getting nicer being a Liberal every day….