9.07am. There is now a notional count for Morley on the WAEC site (don’t ask me where it went last night), and it looks clear the Liberals have in fact won. So Labor needs to win Riverton, Forrestfield and Albany, and is not looking the goods in the former.
2.25am. Revised final call for the evening. The ABC gives the Liberals eight definite gains from Labor: Bunbury, Darling Range, Jandakot, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Ocean Reef, Southern River and Swan Hills. However, I think Wanneroo can probably be added to the list. They also have their nose in front in Riverton and are very likely to pull further ahead in late counting, and a good chance of reining in Labor’s 166-vote lead in Morley and 242-vote lead in Forrestfield. However, Labor is 117 votes ahead in the notional Liberal seat of Albany, and the Liberals have lost Kalgoorlie to an independent likely to back Labor. If Labor can win three out of Riverton, Morley, Forrestfield and Albany, there might yet be a minority Labor government. However, it needs to be remembered that outside of the Mining and Pastoral region, Labor did about 2 per cent worse on non-booth votes than booth votes in 2005, to their cost in late counting. Kwinana appears to have fallen to independent Carol Adams, so any Labor government would be hanging on for dear life with the support of two independents.
1.53am. Hmm – and we’ve also got North West as “Labor win” now. Would like a clearer idea of what’s happened here – possibly an unexpected Nationals preference flow. The WAEC site says 4729 to 3985, which is unequivocal. There might be life yet in this game.
1.16am. ABC computer has moved Wanneroo from Liberal “gain” to “ahead”. Labor in fact leads by six votes, but extrapolating the pattern of late voting from last time puts the Liberals 0.6 per cent ahead.
11.59pm. An intriguing development in Morley, which has gone from Liberal win to “ALP ahead” on the ABC computer, presumably involving official preference figures (the WAEC doesn’t have such a thing on its site as the original D’Orazio-versus-Labor count was junked). If Labor does win Morley, a majority for Labor plus Labor independents becomes mathematically possible again, requiring wins in Riverton (Labor trails by 32 votes), Forrestfield (leads by 242 votes) and Collie-Preston (leads by 416 votes). However, Labor tends not to do very well in late counting.
10.48pm. The Liberals have gained Ocean Reef, North West, Jandakot, Swan Hills, Mount Lawley, Bunbury, Darling Range, Kingsley, Wanneroo, Southern River and apparently Morley. Varying degrees of doubt remain about Riverton, Forrestfield, Collie-Preston and Morley. Labor might make a notional gain of Albany. Former Labor independent John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie from the Liberals. Labor may have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams. Independents Janet Woollard in Alfred Cove and Sue Walker in Nedlands may or may not lose their seats to the Liberals. The numbers are 27 to 29 for Labor plus Labor independents, with either one or two of the latter; 26 to 28 for the Liberals plus Liberal independents, also with one to three of the latter; and four for the Nationals.
10.33pm. ABC computer has Southern River back as Liberal win.
10.26pm. Primary votes in Southern River are Liberal 45.5 per cent, Labor 39.2 per cent, Greens 10.1 per cent, CDP plus Family First 5.5 per cent. The latter would make it very tough for Labor indeed.
10.24pm. ABC computer only has Southern River as “LIB ahead”, when the consensus seems to be that it’s gone.
10.17pm. Morley: Labor 36.0 per cent, Liberal 34.0 per cent, John D’Orazio 17.4 per cent. D’Orazio himself presumably knows something about it, and seems to think his preferences will give it to the Liberals. With the Greens vote on 7.6 per cent, I wouldn’t be so sure quite yet.
10.09pm. Alfred Cove still complicated: Liberal 43.4 per cent, Janet Woollard 25.5 per cent, Labor 20.1 per cent, Greens 9.4 per cent. Not sure what chance of Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Woollard.
10.05pm. Carpenter not conceding.
10.02pm. So a left-right split of between 15-21 and 17-19. Greens one to five. Nationals one to four. Zero to three for the religious parties.
10.00pm. To clarify, this upper house stuff is based on very sketchy educated guesses following on from lower house trends.
10.00pm. Upper house part six: Mining and Pastoral. Upredictable, but very likely three left, three right. Greens and Nationals both in contention.
9.56pm. Upper house part five: Agricultural. Labor not certain of two seats: could be three Liberal, one Nationals and one Family First, or maybe two Nationals.
9.52pm. Upper house part four: South West. Looking like a close shave between four-two and three-all between right and left. A third left seat would certainly go to Greens. Family First and the Nationals in the mix for the three or four right seats.
9.45pm. Upper house part three: South Metropolitan. Liberals likely to have done well enough to have won a third seat, which if true is very bad news for Labor. Could be three Liberal, three Labor; or three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens.
9.42pm. Steven Smith says last Forrestfield booth good for Labor, returning it to lineball. But nobody doubts the Liberals have won Wanneroo, which decides the issue.
9.41pm. Upper house part two: North Metropolitan. Unlikely to be other than Liberal 3, Labor 2, Greens 1.
9.38pm. Upper house part one: East Metropolitan. The swing here might just be at that exact point it needed to be to give the CDP the final seat; it could otherwise go to the Greens. Other than that, Labor three and Liberals two.
9.33pm. Consensus seems to be Liberal Bill Marmion will defeat Sue Walker in Nedlands. The consensus probably knows something I don’t: figures are Liberal 43.6 per cent, Walker 23.5 per cent, Labor 16.4 per cent, Greens 14.1 per cent. Are Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Walker?
9.31pm. The Greens still looking likely to fall short of overtaking the Liberals in Fremantle. McGinty on 38.9 per cent, Liberal 29.7 per cent and Greens 27.7 per cent, with the only preferences to come Family First and CDP.
9.27pm. In Kwinana, independent Carol Adams is well ahead of the Liberal, 24.4 per cent to 16.9 per cent, and very likely to ride over Labor on 39.6 per cent.
9.22pm. John Bowler also playing the leverage game.
9.17pm. Labor apparently think they’re gone in Forrestfield, yet with apparently all booths in they have a lead on the primary vote and likely to go further ahead on Greens preferences. Obviously I’m missing something here. Smith sounding modestly confident about Albany.
9.15pm. Brendon Grylls of the Nationals talking tough on who he’ll support, no doubt for leverage purposes.
9.12pm. Looks like all the booths are in from Wanneroo, and it’s the straw that’s broken the camel’s back. The Liberals lead 43.6 to 40.3 per cent, the Greens are on 8.6 per cent and apparently flowing weakly to Labor, and the CDP and Family first (5.3 per cent between them) would be going the other way. Most likely result looks like Labor with maybe 25 or 26 plus two Labor independents, with 30 required for a majority.
9.07pm. ABC computer gives Fremantle back to the Greens, but with 46.1 per cent counted and the computer’s unreliable record in calling contests involving the Greens.
9.05pm. Julie Bishop pretty much calling a Labor defeat.
9.03pm. Smith now sounding gloomy about Forrestfield as well as Wanneroo, and they need to hold both. Riverton and Collie-Preston very close; Labor 300 votes ahead in Albany.
9.02pm. Situation confused in Kwinana, but Antony Green and Stephen Smith seem to think the independent Carol Adams will win it.
9.01pm. Labor lead dwindling in Albany.
8.59pm. Regarding Fremantle: The gap between the Liberals and Greens is getting very wide though.
8.58pm. A reader says I’m too quick to write off the Greens in Fremantle, which may well be right.
8.57pm. ABC has Liberal 1.3 per cent ahead in Wanneroo, which would mean the end for Labor if so. But Antony Green warns that projections can be unreliable in this kind of growth corridor seat.
8.55pm. ABC computer giving North West to Labor, confirming what we’ve been hearing via scrutineers for a while.
8.54pm. ABC computer calling Collie-Preston for Labor.
8.51pm. Seats crucial to the outcome according to ABC commentators: Albany (51-49), Collie-Preston (51-49, big booth to come), Riverton (shaky), Wanneroo (49-51), Forrestfield (50-50), Joondalup (looking good for Labor). Labor would need to win all of them.
8.50pm. Labor clearly home in Joondalup, the 1.5 per cent swing very surprising under the circumstances.
8.48pm. Labor still ahead in Albany with 33.5 per cent now counted, after being stuck on 17 per cent for a long time. But the big booths in Albany proper as opposed to the rural hinterland could yet reverse this.
8.46pm. ABC computer calling Kalgoorlie for John Bowler, so there’s one piece of good news for Labor. ABC has given Kwinana back to Labor, formerly given to independent Carol Adams.
8.45pm. ABC now calling Wanneroo for the Liberals. Morley depends on John D’Orazio’s preferences, with reason to believe they will cost Labor the seat. Chamber graphic says Labor 29 seats, but that’s at the upper range of what seems likely. If it’s true there might yet be a minority government with support from John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.
8.43pm. Raw primary vote with 46.3 per cent counted: Labor down 6.2 per cent to 35.7 per cent, Liberal up 3.3 per cent to 39.0 per cent, Nationals up 1.2 per cent to 4.8 per cent, Greens up 3.9 per cent to 11.5 per cent. If that holds, the pollsters have done very well, but maybe calculated the 2PP wrong due to mistaken preference assumptions.
8.42pm. Jim McGinty’s scare over in Fremantle. As I was about to say, parts of Fremantle are migrant and low-income areas that don’t vote Greens, but other parts are very bohemian.
8.41pm. ABC computer still calling Joondalup for Labor, which I thought they would have dropped at a losing election.
8.40pm. Liberal Riverton candidate Mike Nahan complaining of expensive Labor campaign in Riverton, but says it has come at the expense of Labor defeats in Southern River and Jandakot.
8.38pm. Talk of Greens preferences overall behaving in peculiar ways. Labor can normally depend on at least 70 per cent of them and is reportedly not getting them.
8.35pm. 37.5 per cent counted in Fremantle, parts of which are greener than others, but Greens well ahead of Liberal 29.5 per cent to 27.3 per cent and Jim McGinty on a very weak 39.9 per cent. Parts of Fremantle are greener than others, but McGinty in big trouble from there.
8.34pm. Looks like I wreak havoc wherever I tread – LP now crashing. Have added what I posted there below.
8.30pm. Steven Smith calling Morley for the Liberals, but thinks John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie. Thinks Albany in play, but we’ve heard nothing about it from ages. Collie-Preston, Riverton, Joondalup, Forrestfield and Wanneroo all more or less 50-50. Outer limits of best case scenario for Labor means minority government plus John Bowler.
8.20pm. Thanks Mark. Labor can only afford to lose nine seats.
Labor losses: Darling Range, Ocean Reef, Bunbury, Jandakot, Mt Lawley, Southern River, Swan Hills, Kingsley
Labor in trouble: Forrestfield, Wanneroo, North West, Wanneroo.
Close: Forrestfield, Collie-Preston, Joondalup, Riverton, Morley.
Miracles Labor can hope for: Albany, independent John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.
Shocks: Labor appears to have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams, and Jim McGinty might lost Fremantle to the Greens.
8.25pm. I’ve taken it over to Larvatus Prodeo.
8.13pm. Labor still ahead in Collie-Preston, just barely, with almost all booths counted.
8.10pm. ABC calling Joondalup for Labor, but I wouldn’t stake the bank on that yet.
8.08pm. Forrestfield “in trouble”, Steven Smith almost calling it.
8.06pm. Contest narrowing in Wanneroo …
8.06pm. But Matt Birney’s critique of The West up in lights.
8.05pm. Regarding the outages, I’ve just written to Larvatus Prodeo to see if I can do my live blog there, so keep an eye out there if I go down here for the long-term.
8.04pm. Matt Birney not sounding certain though.
8.01pm. Swing showing to Labor in Scarborough – probably an anomaly or an error.
8.00pm. Liberal also ahead in Forrestfield.
7.53pm. Labor out of the woods in Kimberley.
7.52pm. Now also chat of poor Greens preference flow, which if accurate means even bigger trouble.
7.48pm. Definite losses: Bunbury, Jandakot, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Ocean Reef, Darling Range. Big trouble: Wanneroo, Swan Hills, North West (though Swan Hills down from “LIB WIN” to “LIB AHEAD”). Possibly Labor gain in Albany, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Nothing lately from Kalgoorlie.
7.46pm. So Mount Lawley gone. Smith seems to think Labor need to win all of Wanneroo, Southern River, Joondalup, Riverton, Collie-Preston, and at least one of those seems unlikely. Swan Hills, North West gone … you’d almost start thinking about calling it.
7.45pm. News flash – early double digit swing in Wanneroo, computer calls it for Liberal.
7.44pm. No, Labor now ahead in Collie-Preston. The moral of the story is that these early ABC calls are probably less reliable than normal due to the redistribution and perhaps the high non-major party vote.
7.42pm. ABC calls Ocean Reef and Collie-Preston for Liberal.
7.40pm. I’m back … Labor appear to be conceding Mount Lawley, but they’re holding on in Riverton and might even win Albany, although I wouldn’t be sure about the latter – this will be the rural booths where Labor didn’t campaign in the past. The city booths could still lose it for them.
7.35pm. Labor back ahead in Riverton.
7.32pm. Bad news continues to accumulate for Labor – Liberal now ahead in Riverton.
7.31pm. Liberal now ahead in Alfred Cove.
7.29pm. It’s calling Cannington for Liberal is well. Labor had better hope that there are a lot of anomalies coming through at the moment.
7.28pm. ABC calls Mount Lawley for Liberal with double digit swing.
7.27pm. ABC calls Pilbara for Liberal, which means it’s all over if so. I wouldn’t call that seat quite yet, but a number of bad results are accumulating for Labor.
7.25pm. Stephen Smith suggests trouble in North West as well. I believe what he just said about Riverton is out of date now, i.e. a new booth has been better for them.
7.24pm. One piece of good news for Labor: swing in Riverton a manageable 0.6 per cent with 8.9 per cent counted.
7.24pm. ABC computer has Liberals ahead in Kimberley with 7.9 per cent swing, 5.3 per cent counted.
7.18pm. Very ugly swing against Labor in Cannington also.
7.18pm. Third news flash: Also calls Southern River for Liberal. Huge trouble for Labor if this keeps up.
7.17pm. Another news flash: ABC calls Jandakot for Liberal, 10 per cent swing from 6.6 per cent. Big shock.
7.14pm. News flash: ABC calls Swan Hills for Liberal. I wouldn’t quite call it yet: 6.6 per cent swing from 5.9 per cent counted not good for Labor though.
7.13pm. ABC calls Morley for Labor, but its judgements can be awry when independents are involved. John D’Orazio not looking in the hunt.
7.16pm. ABC calls Scarborough for Liberal, 3.9 per cent swing from 18.8 per cent counted.
7.13pm. I speak too soon – now “LIB AHEAD” by 0.4 per cent, 25.7 per cent counted.
7.12pm. Labor still highly competitive in Collie-Preston with 22.6 per cent counted.
7.10pm. ABC computer has “ALP AHEAD” in Albany, but only 5.2 counted.
7.09pm. First two Nedlands booths encouraging for Sue Walker.
7.09pm. First booth from Swan Hills, Gidgegannup Town Hall, gives Labor a dangerous 7.1 per cent Liberal swing.
7.08pm ABC computer calls Kalamunda for Liberals.
7.06pm. Labor might be a little troubled by 5.5 per cent swing from 5.5 per cent counted in Girrawheen, if it proves typical for the northern suburbs.
7.04pm. Labor doing a little better than I had expected in the first rural booths from Collie-Preston.
7.03pm. ABC computer calls Bunbury for Liberal – 9.5 per cent swing from 6.3 per cent counted.
6.58pm. Early Alfred Cove results show Janet Woollard might struggle to get ahead of Labor – down to Greens preferences. This from the Labor-voting end of the electorate though.
6.51pm. Two good early booths in for Labor from West Swan, maybe boding well for them in Swan Hills.
6.50pm. Julie Bishop reading too much into early Morley figures.
6.49pm. Very strong performance from Bowler also on early pre-poll votes.
6.47pm. Very encouraging first booth for John Bowler in Kalgoorlie – Kalgoorlie District Education Office, 434 votes.
6.42pm. Only 289 votes, but the Lower Kalgan Hall booth in Albany has swung heavily to Labor.
6.29pm. “Early Votes (In Person)” starting to appear – pre-polls, in other words.
6.28pm. Very first rural booths show encouraging signs for the Nationals.
6.00pm. Welcome everybody. Polling booths are now closed: very first results should be in from about 20 minutes. While away the time by viewing my election day snaps, and keep an eye on the tussle for Mayo in the thread below.
I agree that Carpenter f*cked it up!
Going to an early election 6 months earlier than necessary was stupid!
V.true jasmine
Modern Labor does treat candidates as just so many chess pieces on a board to be moved around at the whim of 2 or 3 powerbrokers.
Sometimes the chess pieces rebel. Radisich would appear to have been vindicated.
ESJ, you do realise Radisich was insisting on moving from her existing marginal seat to a new safe one?
I understand that was the case with Radisich William.
However the shirt lifting thing, accomodating Rita Saffioti, ministry etc suggests she was not one of the “loved ones”. In hindsight she was right to reject the offer.
ESJ
Good to see you bright eyed and bushy tailed this morning and no doubt dreaming of the imminent demise of every Labor government in the country by 2012 as you predicted last night.
With any luck you might even get the Republicans elected again in the US in a couple of months so the Iraq war can go on for another few years and millions of ordinary Americans can continue being denied proper health cover in the richest country in the world.
Ah it truly is the dawning of a great new era for the conservatives of the world.
Funnily enough Darn I am feeling very chipper this morning.
Will there be any counting taking place today William?
Nobody has to work on Sundays in WA any more Gary.
No Gary – maybe recounting, which will only change a couple of votes here and there.
i’ve been looking round on WA’s Electoral Commission website and can’t find any stats on how absent/late votes faired on primary count in 2005.
Its annoying. The AEC site gives that level of detail, and just about every close LIB seat in the last Federal election could see 0.5-1.5% pick up in 2PP as late votes are counted.
Is that a safe assumption in WA?
Still wondering what actually happed with the counts and the computers last night – it seemed completely fubar’d… anyone got any news?
Radisich’s old seat took in areas of both the new West Swan and the new Swan Hills, it wasn’t that surprising that she wanted to stick with the safe part of the area she’d represented for 8 years, it wasn’t like she wanted to be dropped in Morely from a lazy non-public life in Cottesloe.
Mr Squiggle, I’m don’t think that’s a safe assumption as that gain in postals/prepolls/absent votes may very well have had something to do with incumbency rather than the Liberal party.
Radisich’s old seat took in the entirety of the new Swan Hills, and a very small part of West Swan. Carpenter was absolutely right to insist she stand and fight, and if I was in the ALP I would bitterly resist any future attempt by her to return to politics.
before you jump all over me yes it was a relatively small area of the new West Swan seat…
*laughs* too slow – thanks for your take on that William I’ll not argue the toss.
(806)
Good to hear ESJ. We’ll do our best to keep you happy.
Peter Fisher,
Interesting- I hadn’t thought the difference between polling day votes and absent/postals was due to incumbency.
I thought its driven by the demographics of votes who are away from thier electorates – ie a bit more business oriented or more middle class enough to travel about, …somethng like that.
As long as there are no facts available, I won’t know what to think
Has anyone seen any WA-data on this?
I am pleased to say I predicted the Liberal victory in Mount Lawley!
Anyone know if the Greens preferenced Bill Stewart before Labor in Carine?
If so… if the preferences had a strong flow, Stewart will move to second and come close on ALP preferences?
Mr Squiggle – Here is what our Host says
“However, it needs to be remembered that outside of the Mining and Pastoral region, Labor did about 2 per cent worse on non-booth votes than booth votes in 2005, to their cost in late counting.”
So I expect Liberals will improve in late counting.
I don’t blame Radisich for being angry in the last. Good local member, left to take very tough seat (again) while the Premier’s mate gets the plum pickings right next door. He should have tried to entice her to stay in Swan Hills by offering her a position in Cabinet; saying “tough luck” was pretty off in my book.
Where is this notional count for Morley, William?
All I can see at
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Morley/District_results.php
is first prefs.
William, why do you say that ALP looks like losing Wanneroo?
Latest notional distribution of preferences on AEC site says ALP win by 6 votes.
The simple fact of that matter is the voters of WA want a change of Government they wouldnt have swung so hard to the Libs/Nats if that wasnt the case, Carps speech was essentially a concession speech very morose and Colins was almost a victory speech. The people of WA have spoken and with postals and prepolls likely to favour the Libs they should be able to form a Minority Government.
Finally we Libs have won something!
Glen – it is Der Untergang!
Das ist richtig!
As others have mentioned looks like a rejection of major parties all round, the night of the independents and minor parties.
Oakeshoot in Lynne, perhaps a green in Mayo and no majority to either party in WA.
Both parties spinning the results, Swann saying Mayo and Lynne results mean a rejection of the cooaltion and Nelson whilst Hockey says WA means labor is on the nose everywhere.
And Glen you know the best part dont you? Some good old fashioned Perth style Royal Commissions will be heading Labor’s way next!! All funded by the taxpayer naturlich.
Dr Good (#824), I expect it’s because the tiny Labor lead is most likely to be overhauled on prepolls/postals.
Ja, so why Labor would want to give the Nats 700million thus destroying their credibility joining with a Right wing Party and then having to face the Gas Report and the CCC report is just crazy, the rotten fruit will be swept away. Barnett has essentially been handed power and he’ll do a good job in government, he’ll need to if he’s to hold onto government in the next 4 years.
If voters had wanted an ALP government they wouldn’t have delivered 10+ seats to the Tories.
The bumpkins will join the Tories they know that’s what their voters want, if they dont they’ll be smashed by independents or liberals in the next election. I can’t see Carps wanting to deal with the Nats.
Glen, Carps will do a deal with the Nats – power is its own reward.
Whether or not the Nats will do a deal with him is the question…
The Bizarre counting and preferences debacle continues…
The WAEC gives a notional 2pp (Labor/Liberal) as 7804/8327
Whilst the ABC has it at 8361/8195
What the! … The totals don’t even match!
That was for Morley by the way!
Peter that doesnt look likely given…
“Mr Barnett and Mr Grylls are expected to front the media later this morning.”
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=96553
Not that I know anything about Western Australia and its government or Opposition…
But it seems to me Julie Bishop’s assertion that Labor is finished federally is drawing a longish bow.
Still in power in all but one states (and maybe still in WA if something silly happens), and leading in the polls federally by the consistently largest (and sustained) margin in the history of polling.
The Libs barely won back a safe seat, and the Nats lost another, by a country mile (as it were).
I guess Libs will be celebrating to a certain extent today, but if they think they can keep avoiding rejuvenating and reforming themselves, they’ll stay in the political wilderness for years to come.
Their attitude is like owners of a house for rent who are expecting to come back from their overseas trip fairly soon. Meanwhile the note to the tenants (on a short lease, of course) tells them: don’t change anything, don’t enact any new laws, or raise (or even change the mix of) new taxes. That room with the padlock… you’re not to go in there. No parties. No booze. Just mow the lawns and try not to break the chandelier. We’ll be back in six months.
Full marks to them trying, and I know it cheers them up as they survey the wasteland that is their political prospects, but they really do need to get a grasp on the new reality: one state election doth not a sea change make. They come from within.
For once i agree with you BB, this election was not fought on federal issues but bread and butter WA issues, health, education, law and order and honest government. Julie i think needs to just be happy the Tories won something.
“The simple fact of that matter is the voters of WA want a change of Government they wouldnt have swung so hard to the Libs/Nats if that wasnt the case”
Oh please! What a load of cobblers. The facts are that on current counting, 35.9% of voters voted Labor, around 38.6% of voters voted Liberal, 4.9% of voters voted National, 11.5% of voters voted Green and 9.1% of voters voted for minor parties or independents.
Another interesting fact is that on current counting, Liberal received an extra 2.9% of the vote. In addition Nationals received an extra 1.2% of the vote. 2.9% or 4.1% (if you include the Nationals) is hardly “the voters of WA”.
Peter any government that loses 10+ seats has got to go!
Especially considering how the results will end up, with prepoll and postals
The people have spoken Craps is finished just face the fact the ALP have lost, false hope is very bad for the soul!
So, if the last two instances of going early did not exactly work as per the plan, what do the results do for the probability of an earlyish fed DD?
Gag me with a spoon… is that the real Glen? Six months in rehab has done you the world of good.
Is it the general rule of Westminster govt, that the Sovereign makes an offer to the largest party first, to try to form a govt?
Or is it that if the lib/nats make a deal, then they are deemed to be the largest bloc?
Labor are the largest bloc atm, one imagines…
Of course BB, but look not once did the Fed issues come into it, Rudd and Nelson went briefly over there but kept their mouths shut.
The Federal Tories are still a shamozel, we barely won a blue ribbon seat (Mayo) and the Nats proved how useless they are by losing their last leaders dark green ribbon seat (Lyne).
A bad result for the Federal Conservatives, a Good result for State Conservatives.
The dynamics have changed and the new cycle is well and truly on IMHO.
Boerwar,
The NT and WA early elections were pure political expediency. In the case of a DD, it would be because the Government cannot get its legislation through the Senate and it would not occur until after a long campaign of complaint.
” any government that loses 10+ seats has got to go!”
Really? Haven’t heard of that rule. My understanding was that the party (or coalition of parties) that holds a majority (or majority support) in the lower house wins government.
There was a bit of discussion earlier about the WA Upper House structure. What geniuses in Labor and Greens found a system which allows voters in Agricultural and Mining/Pastoral to return 1 per 13-14,000 votes, South West 1 per 30,000 and the 3 metro regions 1 per 55,000 votes. Apart from ensuring a good crop of Nationals in Legislative Council and making it next to impossible for ALP and Greens to get a majority because of the even number of 6 in each area what did it achieve?
BB @ 834,
Agree, the Fed implications are minimal.
Having thought about it a bit more since last night, about all I can come up with is:
– Has some effect on Kevin’s “end the blame game” theme (probably just gives him a good excuse for not being able to do this)
– Might put Labor under a bit more pressure in the inner cities, vis a vis the Greens
– Might put Rudd off an early election.
Also it might have a bit of a rejuvenating effect on the Liberals’ morale, and give a slight impetus to their money-raising.
None of this is a big deal on the whole, and there’s no reason for Fed Libs to be breaking out the champers.
I agree with Peter about the largest party – with a caveat. If memory serves, the existing administration is given the first option to form a government, but if that is not possible the next largest party is approached.
A classic example is the February 1974 UK election which resulted in a hung parliament and where Labour emerged with 4 more seats than the Conservatives – yet Edward Heath spent a few days running around trying to stitch up a coalition with the Liberals before the Queen sent for Harold Wilson.
Maybe the ALP should go into opposition this time around, especially if a conservative government is likely to be as unstable as it’s looking (I don’t like the idea of fruit loop Woollard being the swing vote). I was very disappointed in Carpenter’s effort last night…when all was not lost and some fight was required, he just looked deflated and defeated and not even thinking of the possibilities.
Especially after the (predictably) shocking result in Lyne, and the (somewhat unexpectedly) shocking result in Mayo.
Smokin’ Joe Hockey is out and about, full of bluster, wagging his finger at the Rudd government and predicting the end is nigh.
This, after losing a long-time Coalition seat and revording the lowest vote for the Libs in Mayo in history.
Gotta hand it to Joe, he knows all about chutzpah, but not too much about adding up, if this morning’s was his considered opinion.