Lyne by-election count thread

I will not be providing live blogging for either of tonight’s by-elections, but here’s a space for you all to discuss the figures from Lyne as they come in.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

77 comments on “Lyne by-election count thread”

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  1. Allowing for some churning of Labor voters -> Greens and Greens -> Independent (and a few Laborites confusedly voting DLP…) it’s a remarkable result.

    Oakeshot is basically creaming 30% of the electorate from Labor’s disenfranchised voters and 30% straight from the Nats.

  2. rod:

    Thats okay rod whatever we get is a bonus, we havent stood in this seat for 30 years so we’ll take a 1 plus gain. Coming 5th out of 8 will do for a start.

    The real shock is that the greens even without a labor candidate are really struggling to hold their vote in lyne. Which is a good sign.


  3. I have assumed my former name
    I think I deserve at least half a chocolate frog.

    My prediction on 29/8 #268 in the previous thread was:

    Oakeshott 65
    Drew Nationals 18
    Russell Greens 7 (their result in the LC for PMQ at the last state election)
    Fishers 5 (their result in the LC for PMQ at the last state election + 2% Donkey)
    Informal 2
    All others 3 (In the order of Citizen’s Electoral council, DLP and 2 Independents

    Tonight’s results:
    Oakeshott 64
    Drew Nationals 22
    Russell Greens 7
    Fishers 4
    Informal 3
    All others 3

  4. The numbers add up to 103 because of the way the AEC handles informals.
    Admittedly I got the order of the “all others” wrong (It ended DLP/2x independents/CEC) – but the total number of votes was small.

    I am definetly not walking dnaked down Horton St. I will savour this overnight before reserve the right to post on “the dark horse” and Drew tomorrow.

  5. 60
    and authorities expresses concern that some bloggers are consuming too many magic mushrooms and making outrageous statements.
    viz:”Oakshott is a former National, and I expect he’ll rejoin the party and become leader by 2010.”

  6. This was always going to be difficult for the Nationals if Oakeshott ran but I think there were a number of factors that added to the rout:
    1. Choice of candidate. Oakeshott did not announce his candidature until after the Nationals’ pre-selection and Stoner’s announcement that he wasn’t interested. I don’t know if Stoner ever thought about it ( there were rumours he would go federal if he was given the leader’s job) but a Stoner v Oakeshott contest would have been much more interesting and the question of whether Oakeshott would have stood against Stoner can be raised.

    Instead the Nats chose an unimpressive, uncharasmatic, dismissed former mayor. They could not believe that a very significant number of PMQ people believed he had been dismissed for good reason and were glad to see the end of him. The party that had for so long dominated the area ended up with not having a viable candidate. Their hubris was jaw-dropping.

    2. Attack ads, the Nats tried this against Oakeshott in the 2003 state election with disastorous results. They did it again this time and the only comments I heard were ones of disgust – I think this must have cost Drew a few percent.

    3. I am amazed how this by-election, which has produced an earthquake in the seat and I suspect for the Nationals country wide occurred without apparent major interest in the local media or among the voters. It was almost as if from the day of vaile’s resignation, the electors had quietly made their decision to go for the Nationals with cricket bats

  7. OC, the result was pretty much as expected.

    On the primary, you thought 63%, I thought 65% – we ended up splitting the difference!

    I thought prefs would flow a few percent stronger to Oakeshott than they actually did -expecting a 75/77% 2PP from a 65% primary base, but it’s currently sitting on 74.4%. There’s something a little smelly about the pref flows at some of the booths so we may have to wait a bit to see how the final result turns out.

    It looks like the only booth where the Nats won on the primary was Dyers Crossing – by 2 votes, Elands went to the Greens and the rest went to RO.

    RO got 55-65% of the primary vote in the Taree booths, about what was expected.

    The DLP cracked 1% of the vote – just, at 1.03%. So much for the DLP rural resurgence. Blow in candidates will get spanked like that in RARA land.

    Well picked OC on the composition of the the minor vote BTW!

    Looks like the Nats scored their lowest ever vote in most of the non PMQ booths that sit in the Hastings Valley as well.. as I think we both thought would happen?

    All up, they got the pounding they so thoroughly deserved considering their candidate, their campaign and their basic political stupidity.

    I’m a bit suprised by the Mount George vote – the Greens only got 11 votes. I can name more than 11 people that live out that way that vote Green! Must have voted in Wingham or Taree instead when they did their Saturday morning shopping.

    The Greens got 18.67% at Crescent Head where I thought they’d do well. Crowdy head was pretty funny – of the 95 formal votes, RO got 80 of them!

    The Greens outpolled the Nats at Herrons Creek. If anyone suggested such a thing happening 10 years ago they would have been laughed out of town.

    Lyne will be Oakeshott’s for as long as he wants it – and I think we can safely say that it will never, ever have a National Party member representing it again. Liberal, Independent, maybe even ALP in 20 years… but not Nat.

  8. Herron’s creek, dosen’t surprise me. When I was the ALP candidate it and Elands were the only booths I won (however you do a smiley).

    I normally wouldn’t comment on such an inconsequentiallity as the DLP vote but after what happened on the previous thread perhaps a few words are worthwhile (tongue firmly in cheek).

    This is an absolute disaster for the party. In terms of finances alone the loss of the deposit and failure to skim the election funds must make the party’s survival doubtful.

    However, lets look at the votes – 618! and this in an election where masses of disenfranchied Labor voters were going to pour across to the “other Labor party”. In fact if you remove the random voters (surely at least 200) and those who confused the DLP for the ALP (again at least 200 and, by the posts on this site, the DLP’s main campaign stratergy) you are left with about 200 people who made a conscious decision to vote for the blow-in.

    Let’s get the vote in context. At 1% the vote has dropped by a third since the senate election last year. The Fishing vote is 4 times greater than the DLP – 4 times as many people chose a party whose main interest is in catch size over the DLP’s world view. The informal vote is 4 times greater than the DLP- 4 times as many people are interested in using the ballot for colouring-in than those who believe the DLP has the answers. Barry Wright got within 150 votes of the DLP. Barry admits he stands for elections as therapy after his wife’s death. He believes that Australia should have a form of Swiss federalism largely because his wife was Swiss. However, at least he lives locally and campaigns. Last Friday, in torrential rain, I saw his car with a Swiss flag and balloons in Aboriginal colours outside Purfleet.

    So, the people who seek to revive a dead and largely reviled brand name from the 60s need to do some soul-searching. The DLP is as dead as B A Santamaria.

  9. What does this result mean for Cowper, which Labor missed by 1% last time after a very disrupted and underfunded campaign?
    Could the Nationals be completely removed from the NSW Coast at the next election.

  10. 67…

    Speaking of state matters… does anyone now have a prediction on what might happen in the state by-election in 6 weeks time? Do you reckon we can call Rob Drew & Leslie Williams “Mr & Mrs 20 percent” in 2008?

  11. Chuckles all round OC.

    I was surprised by Cowper at the last Fed election – surprised that the ALP didn’t win it when it really should have been a slam dunk.

    The Nats in Cowper will be killed by demographic change alone by 2010.

    Dyers Crossing seems to be the last home of the Nats in the electorate – getting 47% of the Primary (I made an error earlier up in the thread on this) compared to Oakeshott’s 39.7% and going on to win the TPP at the booth by 2 votes – 235 to 233.

    There wasnt another booth where the Nats cracked 40% of the primary, and only 6 where they cracked 30!

    There’s still the absents, prepolls and whatnot to come in – RO should crack 75% TPP.

  12. In Cowper, the original Coffs Harbour based ALP candidate was replaced by Paul Sekfy from Taylor’s Arms with about 3 months to go. The CH branch members were somewhat peeved and it has been suggested that there may have be a less than full input into the election from some of the branches. It was only fairly late in the day that the ALP realised it was winnable and put some resources in. It will be very interesting to see what happens next time up.

    Someone told me that when the ALP decided to change candidate they began looking for a local celebrity, names suggested were Russell Crowe, Jack Thompson and David Helfgott. Paul Sekfy looks fairly stable compared to that lot.

  13. Anyone know the political inclination of George Negus? He lives out Bellingen way and at least understands politics (which already puts him way ahead of most celebrity candidates).

    The next ALP candidate for Cowper should be out in the community trying to create a profile now – not as the next ALP candidate, but as a community leader. That’s probably one thing the ALP has never really been good at – prepping the community for their candidates.

    Profile is worth buckets of votes in the regions – that’s what Country Labor should have been using their resources between elections to do.

  14. In Port Macquarie, Lisa Intermann (dismissed councillor but not one of the Glasshouse group) was reported on local ABC radio as saying that 4 of the dismissed councillors turned up at a NSWEC information night for potential candidates.
    I guess this implies that she is interested in running as well as the ex-deputy mayor Bob Sharpham (who I think is a National’s stooge) and Jamie Harrison. There must also be another interested councillor. James Langley (who ran for the ALP at the last Federal election ) and Leslie Williams (Nationals) are also running.
    I think the big questions are whether the Liberals will run – with the right candidate I think they would give it a strong shake and whether Oakeshott will endorse an independent candidate. It is possible that with such a plethora of credible independents, Leslie Williams will do a Steve Bradbury and sail through.

  15. Possum – I agree about Dyers Crossing being last stranglehold for Nats – meeting I attend in local community prove exactly that. There was absolute vitriol for Rudd and ALP before and after 24/11. It raises its silly head at nearly every meeting in some form or other.
    Horse flu thing was a case in point – they blame Labor for not doing enough about it. Before 24/11 they were all adamant that they knew exactly how the thing got into the country and named the horse, who was responsible and also named the Howard Govt. Minister but now it is a different story.
    Dyers will not change in my lifetime even tho farming is non-existant in its old form within that area.
    It is great to see the Nats gone from the seat at last. They did b….. all for the area. And Vaile’s limp (wet fish, actually) handshake said it all about the bloke.

  16. What a great day for Lyne. The nats have only done lyne farming communites harm. There are some great cummunities and people in this seat, i hope this independant can help them get a better deal.

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