Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Lyne by-election count thread
I will not be providing live blogging for either of tonight’s by-elections, but here’s a space for you all to discuss the figures from Lyne as they come in.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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mnc,
Yup, small sample, but you’d have to think Oakeshott can start packing for Canberra
Sorry that was byabarra and 2 smaller ones (byabarra is the next booth to Comboyne and you dont get much more national than comboyne)
Six out of seven booths in so far are outside of the state seat of Port Macquarie, which suggests that Oakeshott’s vote will increase as the night goes on.
I’m calling it for Oakeshott.
7 Boothes
Oakeshott…645
Drew… 283
Russell (Greens)…118
10 country booths in and oakeshott has 60% primary
Michael O’Donoghue, the dark horse of the DLP, is catching 19 votes so far
Yeah, Oakeshott’s romping it in. 60% is impressive enough, without realising that the Greens are taking 11% of the rest. Drew hasn’t a chance in hell at this point.
midnorthcoast: ahaha…
Great to see the country hicks getting a hiding.
sorry he just got 1 more vote in Lorne
Alright this is over.
I’m gonna conserve my energy for Mayo and WA.
Especially considering we have three different timezones.
Dunboggan in, moderate size booth but i think the first P.MQ seat booth in Oakeshott now on 62%
Are the Nats being caned for forcing an early election?
nah…
They’re being caned because they’re up against one of the most popular politicians in the country, and were stupid enough to run a candidate who was very publicly sacked as mayor for incompetence…
16 Boothes
Oakeshott…1800
Drew… 612
Russell (Greens)…295
People wanna make predictions?
I predict 75%+ 2PP for Oakeshott once the PMQ booths come in.
I dont think its the early election as such, more that the nats need to become relevant to voters in seats like dawson, richmond, page and lyne very quickly, or this will happen again. Cowper in 2010 perhaps?
That’s the quickest call in PB history. Congrats to the man – he’s obviously doing something right.
Now to the unpredictable contests…
25 Boothes… 8.05% counted
Oakeshott…4236
Drew… 1447
Russell (Greens)…662
29 Boothes… 12.93% counted
Oakeshott…6826
Drew… 2419
Russell (Greens)…939
Yeah, give the Nats a great flogging!!!
Will news write it up as a 30% swing against the nats?
It’s definitely not something The Nationals will be thrilled with. They had a lousy seat count at the past election to start with… to now be 1 down from that number is not good.
how many nats after the next fed elections-3 maybe 5 at max
so sad 🙂
On the list (as far as a non-local can know), only one of the booths in the town of Port Macquarie has actually been counted, and only on primaries at that.
Does that mean we might be looking at a 70% primary when they’re added in??!?!
I might be wrong but if these small booths are run of the mill country towns then the Greens can be very happy with their vote!
The impressive thing is Oakeshott is dominating with booths outside his state seat but there again news tends to travel further in the country.
Congrats to Oakeshott on successfully moving from state to federal politics.
Was the National Party candidate high profile or a newbie
16.05% counted…
OAKESHOTT, Robert Independent 8,524 62.85
RUSSELL, Susie The Greens 1,175 8.6
DREW, Rob Nationals 2,968 21.88
The AEC is predicting 71.57%
Well they’re gauranteed at least 3 in the Senate… so definitely over 3.
Rod @ 29
No, I’m sure that somehow the press will still write it up as a “message” to Labor, despite the Nats losing big and Labor not running.
The AEC says the Green vote is by only .01%
LTEP
sorry,to clarify I meant reps only
Mayo is a lot more fun (though seeing just how high Oaky can get is entertaining too…)
Mexican Beemer,
The %swing compares the booths counted with the result in those booths last time. So Greens are polling pretty much the same as last time.
Drew was Mayor of Port Macquarie-Hastings Council until earlier this year. They were sacked for incompetence.
Pretty impressive that the Greens vote is holding up with a popular independent. Good job by Susie.
Mexican Beemer: I’m not surprised – I think there’d be quite a few Green voters crossing over to Oakeshott.
Thank you Barry!!
So the best the Nats can come up with is a failed Mayor! that I think says more than the fact they are losing to Oakeshott.
Mid North
Noticed that the DLP vote is lower than the informal, what does this say about the DLP, or informal voters for that matter?
Would I be right in gussing the Greens will do better in the larger towns of Port Macquarrie and Taree!
75-25 TPP that is impressive
Mexican Beemer,
Have a read of the previous Lyne thread.
MidNorthCoast has provided heaps of background information.
We’ll see how the WA Nats do in a couple of hours. I’ve always thought that for the Nats to have any relevance they really have to be an independent party. I think this confirms that they have one of two options left available unless they want to disappear altogether:
1. Merge with the Liberals
2. Become independent.
MB@47
“Would I be right in gussing” normally only if your gusface
Oakshott will win comfortably: prediction
Votes in from Killabakh booth only. Oakeshott polling 60%.
First booth (Killabakh) in.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13827-130.htm
3 booths in. Still tiny amounts of votes. Oakeshott 56% of primaries.
It is all over
Byabarra is in 435 votes.
In 2007
Vaile 52%
Green 16%
Labor 31%
Today
Oakeshott 56%
Drew 26%
Green 10%
Fishing 4.5%
(DLP 3votes CEC 2 votes)
mnc,
Yup, small sample, but you’d have to think Oakeshott can start packing for Canberra
Sorry that was byabarra and 2 smaller ones (byabarra is the next booth to Comboyne and you dont get much more national than comboyne)
Six out of seven booths in so far are outside of the state seat of Port Macquarie, which suggests that Oakeshott’s vote will increase as the night goes on.
I’m calling it for Oakeshott.
7 Boothes
Oakeshott…645
Drew… 283
Russell (Greens)…118
10 country booths in and oakeshott has 60% primary
Michael O’Donoghue, the dark horse of the DLP, is catching 19 votes so far
Yeah, Oakeshott’s romping it in. 60% is impressive enough, without realising that the Greens are taking 11% of the rest. Drew hasn’t a chance in hell at this point.
midnorthcoast: ahaha…
Great to see the country hicks getting a hiding.
sorry he just got 1 more vote in Lorne
Alright this is over.
I’m gonna conserve my energy for Mayo and WA.
Especially considering we have three different timezones.
Dunboggan in, moderate size booth but i think the first P.MQ seat booth in Oakeshott now on 62%
Are the Nats being caned for forcing an early election?
nah…
They’re being caned because they’re up against one of the most popular politicians in the country, and were stupid enough to run a candidate who was very publicly sacked as mayor for incompetence…
16 Boothes
Oakeshott…1800
Drew… 612
Russell (Greens)…295
People wanna make predictions?
I predict 75%+ 2PP for Oakeshott once the PMQ booths come in.
I dont think its the early election as such, more that the nats need to become relevant to voters in seats like dawson, richmond, page and lyne very quickly, or this will happen again. Cowper in 2010 perhaps?
That’s the quickest call in PB history. Congrats to the man – he’s obviously doing something right.
Now to the unpredictable contests…
25 Boothes… 8.05% counted
Oakeshott…4236
Drew… 1447
Russell (Greens)…662
29 Boothes… 12.93% counted
Oakeshott…6826
Drew… 2419
Russell (Greens)…939
Yeah, give the Nats a great flogging!!!
Will news write it up as a 30% swing against the nats?
It’s definitely not something The Nationals will be thrilled with. They had a lousy seat count at the past election to start with… to now be 1 down from that number is not good.
how many nats after the next fed elections-3 maybe 5 at max
so sad 🙂
On the list (as far as a non-local can know), only one of the booths in the town of Port Macquarie has actually been counted, and only on primaries at that.
Does that mean we might be looking at a 70% primary when they’re added in??!?!
I might be wrong but if these small booths are run of the mill country towns then the Greens can be very happy with their vote!
The impressive thing is Oakeshott is dominating with booths outside his state seat but there again news tends to travel further in the country.
Congrats to Oakeshott on successfully moving from state to federal politics.
Was the National Party candidate high profile or a newbie
16.05% counted…
OAKESHOTT, Robert Independent 8,524 62.85
RUSSELL, Susie The Greens 1,175 8.6
DREW, Rob Nationals 2,968 21.88
The AEC is predicting 71.57%
Well they’re gauranteed at least 3 in the Senate… so definitely over 3.
Rod @ 29
No, I’m sure that somehow the press will still write it up as a “message” to Labor, despite the Nats losing big and Labor not running.
The AEC says the Green vote is by only .01%
LTEP
sorry,to clarify I meant reps only
Mayo is a lot more fun (though seeing just how high Oaky can get is entertaining too…)
Mexican Beemer,
The %swing compares the booths counted with the result in those booths last time. So Greens are polling pretty much the same as last time.
Drew was Mayor of Port Macquarie-Hastings Council until earlier this year. They were sacked for incompetence.
“I predict 75%+ 2PP for Oakeshott ”
It’s 74.45% at the moment, you’re a long way off.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13827-130.htm
Pretty impressive that the Greens vote is holding up with a popular independent. Good job by Susie.
Mexican Beemer: I’m not surprised – I think there’d be quite a few Green voters crossing over to Oakeshott.
Thank you Barry!!
So the best the Nats can come up with is a failed Mayor! that I think says more than the fact they are losing to Oakeshott.
Mid North
Noticed that the DLP vote is lower than the informal, what does this say about the DLP, or informal voters for that matter?
Would I be right in gussing the Greens will do better in the larger towns of Port Macquarrie and Taree!
75-25 TPP that is impressive
Mexican Beemer,
Have a read of the previous Lyne thread.
MidNorthCoast has provided heaps of background information.
We’ll see how the WA Nats do in a couple of hours. I’ve always thought that for the Nats to have any relevance they really have to be an independent party. I think this confirms that they have one of two options left available unless they want to disappear altogether:
1. Merge with the Liberals
2. Become independent.
MB@47
“Would I be right in gussing” normally only if your gusface