Lyne by-election count thread

I will not be providing live blogging for either of tonight’s by-elections, but here’s a space for you all to discuss the figures from Lyne as they come in.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

77 comments on “Lyne by-election count thread”

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  1. It is all over
    Byabarra is in 435 votes.
    In 2007
    Vaile 52%
    Green 16%
    Labor 31%

    Oakeshott 56%
    Drew 26%
    Green 10%
    Fishing 4.5%
    (DLP 3votes CEC 2 votes)

  2. Sorry that was byabarra and 2 smaller ones (byabarra is the next booth to Comboyne and you dont get much more national than comboyne)

  3. Six out of seven booths in so far are outside of the state seat of Port Macquarie, which suggests that Oakeshott’s vote will increase as the night goes on.

  4. nah…

    They’re being caned because they’re up against one of the most popular politicians in the country, and were stupid enough to run a candidate who was very publicly sacked as mayor for incompetence…

  5. I dont think its the early election as such, more that the nats need to become relevant to voters in seats like dawson, richmond, page and lyne very quickly, or this will happen again. Cowper in 2010 perhaps?

  6. That’s the quickest call in PB history. Congrats to the man – he’s obviously doing something right.

    Now to the unpredictable contests…

  7. It’s definitely not something The Nationals will be thrilled with. They had a lousy seat count at the past election to start with… to now be 1 down from that number is not good.

  8. On the list (as far as a non-local can know), only one of the booths in the town of Port Macquarie has actually been counted, and only on primaries at that.

    Does that mean we might be looking at a 70% primary when they’re added in??!?!

  9. I might be wrong but if these small booths are run of the mill country towns then the Greens can be very happy with their vote!

    The impressive thing is Oakeshott is dominating with booths outside his state seat but there again news tends to travel further in the country.

    Congrats to Oakeshott on successfully moving from state to federal politics.

    Was the National Party candidate high profile or a newbie

  10. Rod @ 29

    No, I’m sure that somehow the press will still write it up as a “message” to Labor, despite the Nats losing big and Labor not running.

  11. Mexican Beemer,
    The %swing compares the booths counted with the result in those booths last time. So Greens are polling pretty much the same as last time.
    Drew was Mayor of Port Macquarie-Hastings Council until earlier this year. They were sacked for incompetence.

  12. Thank you Barry!!

    So the best the Nats can come up with is a failed Mayor! that I think says more than the fact they are losing to Oakeshott.

  13. Would I be right in gussing the Greens will do better in the larger towns of Port Macquarrie and Taree!

    75-25 TPP that is impressive

  14. We’ll see how the WA Nats do in a couple of hours. I’ve always thought that for the Nats to have any relevance they really have to be an independent party. I think this confirms that they have one of two options left available unless they want to disappear altogether:

    1. Merge with the Liberals
    2. Become independent.

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