Western Australian election live

9.07am. There is now a notional count for Morley on the WAEC site (don’t ask me where it went last night), and it looks clear the Liberals have in fact won. So Labor needs to win Riverton, Forrestfield and Albany, and is not looking the goods in the former.

2.25am. Revised final call for the evening. The ABC gives the Liberals eight definite gains from Labor: Bunbury, Darling Range, Jandakot, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Ocean Reef, Southern River and Swan Hills. However, I think Wanneroo can probably be added to the list. They also have their nose in front in Riverton and are very likely to pull further ahead in late counting, and a good chance of reining in Labor’s 166-vote lead in Morley and 242-vote lead in Forrestfield. However, Labor is 117 votes ahead in the notional Liberal seat of Albany, and the Liberals have lost Kalgoorlie to an independent likely to back Labor. If Labor can win three out of Riverton, Morley, Forrestfield and Albany, there might yet be a minority Labor government. However, it needs to be remembered that outside of the Mining and Pastoral region, Labor did about 2 per cent worse on non-booth votes than booth votes in 2005, to their cost in late counting. Kwinana appears to have fallen to independent Carol Adams, so any Labor government would be hanging on for dear life with the support of two independents.

1.53am. Hmm – and we’ve also got North West as “Labor win” now. Would like a clearer idea of what’s happened here – possibly an unexpected Nationals preference flow. The WAEC site says 4729 to 3985, which is unequivocal. There might be life yet in this game.

1.16am. ABC computer has moved Wanneroo from Liberal “gain” to “ahead”. Labor in fact leads by six votes, but extrapolating the pattern of late voting from last time puts the Liberals 0.6 per cent ahead.

11.59pm. An intriguing development in Morley, which has gone from Liberal win to “ALP ahead” on the ABC computer, presumably involving official preference figures (the WAEC doesn’t have such a thing on its site as the original D’Orazio-versus-Labor count was junked). If Labor does win Morley, a majority for Labor plus Labor independents becomes mathematically possible again, requiring wins in Riverton (Labor trails by 32 votes), Forrestfield (leads by 242 votes) and Collie-Preston (leads by 416 votes). However, Labor tends not to do very well in late counting.

10.48pm. The Liberals have gained Ocean Reef, North West, Jandakot, Swan Hills, Mount Lawley, Bunbury, Darling Range, Kingsley, Wanneroo, Southern River and apparently Morley. Varying degrees of doubt remain about Riverton, Forrestfield, Collie-Preston and Morley. Labor might make a notional gain of Albany. Former Labor independent John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie from the Liberals. Labor may have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams. Independents Janet Woollard in Alfred Cove and Sue Walker in Nedlands may or may not lose their seats to the Liberals. The numbers are 27 to 29 for Labor plus Labor independents, with either one or two of the latter; 26 to 28 for the Liberals plus Liberal independents, also with one to three of the latter; and four for the Nationals.

10.33pm. ABC computer has Southern River back as Liberal win.

10.26pm. Primary votes in Southern River are Liberal 45.5 per cent, Labor 39.2 per cent, Greens 10.1 per cent, CDP plus Family First 5.5 per cent. The latter would make it very tough for Labor indeed.

10.24pm. ABC computer only has Southern River as “LIB ahead”, when the consensus seems to be that it’s gone.

10.17pm. Morley: Labor 36.0 per cent, Liberal 34.0 per cent, John D’Orazio 17.4 per cent. D’Orazio himself presumably knows something about it, and seems to think his preferences will give it to the Liberals. With the Greens vote on 7.6 per cent, I wouldn’t be so sure quite yet.

10.09pm. Alfred Cove still complicated: Liberal 43.4 per cent, Janet Woollard 25.5 per cent, Labor 20.1 per cent, Greens 9.4 per cent. Not sure what chance of Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Woollard.

10.05pm. Carpenter not conceding.

10.02pm. So a left-right split of between 15-21 and 17-19. Greens one to five. Nationals one to four. Zero to three for the religious parties.

10.00pm. To clarify, this upper house stuff is based on very sketchy educated guesses following on from lower house trends.

10.00pm. Upper house part six: Mining and Pastoral. Upredictable, but very likely three left, three right. Greens and Nationals both in contention.

9.56pm. Upper house part five: Agricultural. Labor not certain of two seats: could be three Liberal, one Nationals and one Family First, or maybe two Nationals.

9.52pm. Upper house part four: South West. Looking like a close shave between four-two and three-all between right and left. A third left seat would certainly go to Greens. Family First and the Nationals in the mix for the three or four right seats.

9.45pm. Upper house part three: South Metropolitan. Liberals likely to have done well enough to have won a third seat, which if true is very bad news for Labor. Could be three Liberal, three Labor; or three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens.

9.42pm. Steven Smith says last Forrestfield booth good for Labor, returning it to lineball. But nobody doubts the Liberals have won Wanneroo, which decides the issue.

9.41pm. Upper house part two: North Metropolitan. Unlikely to be other than Liberal 3, Labor 2, Greens 1.

9.38pm. Upper house part one: East Metropolitan. The swing here might just be at that exact point it needed to be to give the CDP the final seat; it could otherwise go to the Greens. Other than that, Labor three and Liberals two.

9.33pm. Consensus seems to be Liberal Bill Marmion will defeat Sue Walker in Nedlands. The consensus probably knows something I don’t: figures are Liberal 43.6 per cent, Walker 23.5 per cent, Labor 16.4 per cent, Greens 14.1 per cent. Are Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Walker?

9.31pm. The Greens still looking likely to fall short of overtaking the Liberals in Fremantle. McGinty on 38.9 per cent, Liberal 29.7 per cent and Greens 27.7 per cent, with the only preferences to come Family First and CDP.

9.27pm. In Kwinana, independent Carol Adams is well ahead of the Liberal, 24.4 per cent to 16.9 per cent, and very likely to ride over Labor on 39.6 per cent.

9.22pm. John Bowler also playing the leverage game.

9.17pm. Labor apparently think they’re gone in Forrestfield, yet with apparently all booths in they have a lead on the primary vote and likely to go further ahead on Greens preferences. Obviously I’m missing something here. Smith sounding modestly confident about Albany.

9.15pm. Brendon Grylls of the Nationals talking tough on who he’ll support, no doubt for leverage purposes.

9.12pm. Looks like all the booths are in from Wanneroo, and it’s the straw that’s broken the camel’s back. The Liberals lead 43.6 to 40.3 per cent, the Greens are on 8.6 per cent and apparently flowing weakly to Labor, and the CDP and Family first (5.3 per cent between them) would be going the other way. Most likely result looks like Labor with maybe 25 or 26 plus two Labor independents, with 30 required for a majority.

9.07pm. ABC computer gives Fremantle back to the Greens, but with 46.1 per cent counted and the computer’s unreliable record in calling contests involving the Greens.

9.05pm. Julie Bishop pretty much calling a Labor defeat.

9.03pm. Smith now sounding gloomy about Forrestfield as well as Wanneroo, and they need to hold both. Riverton and Collie-Preston very close; Labor 300 votes ahead in Albany.

9.02pm. Situation confused in Kwinana, but Antony Green and Stephen Smith seem to think the independent Carol Adams will win it.

9.01pm. Labor lead dwindling in Albany.

8.59pm. Regarding Fremantle: The gap between the Liberals and Greens is getting very wide though.

8.58pm. A reader says I’m too quick to write off the Greens in Fremantle, which may well be right.

8.57pm. ABC has Liberal 1.3 per cent ahead in Wanneroo, which would mean the end for Labor if so. But Antony Green warns that projections can be unreliable in this kind of growth corridor seat.

8.55pm. ABC computer giving North West to Labor, confirming what we’ve been hearing via scrutineers for a while.

8.54pm. ABC computer calling Collie-Preston for Labor.

8.51pm. Seats crucial to the outcome according to ABC commentators: Albany (51-49), Collie-Preston (51-49, big booth to come), Riverton (shaky), Wanneroo (49-51), Forrestfield (50-50), Joondalup (looking good for Labor). Labor would need to win all of them.

8.50pm. Labor clearly home in Joondalup, the 1.5 per cent swing very surprising under the circumstances.

8.48pm. Labor still ahead in Albany with 33.5 per cent now counted, after being stuck on 17 per cent for a long time. But the big booths in Albany proper as opposed to the rural hinterland could yet reverse this.

8.46pm. ABC computer calling Kalgoorlie for John Bowler, so there’s one piece of good news for Labor. ABC has given Kwinana back to Labor, formerly given to independent Carol Adams.

8.45pm. ABC now calling Wanneroo for the Liberals. Morley depends on John D’Orazio’s preferences, with reason to believe they will cost Labor the seat. Chamber graphic says Labor 29 seats, but that’s at the upper range of what seems likely. If it’s true there might yet be a minority government with support from John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.

8.43pm. Raw primary vote with 46.3 per cent counted: Labor down 6.2 per cent to 35.7 per cent, Liberal up 3.3 per cent to 39.0 per cent, Nationals up 1.2 per cent to 4.8 per cent, Greens up 3.9 per cent to 11.5 per cent. If that holds, the pollsters have done very well, but maybe calculated the 2PP wrong due to mistaken preference assumptions.

8.42pm. Jim McGinty’s scare over in Fremantle. As I was about to say, parts of Fremantle are migrant and low-income areas that don’t vote Greens, but other parts are very bohemian.

8.41pm. ABC computer still calling Joondalup for Labor, which I thought they would have dropped at a losing election.

8.40pm. Liberal Riverton candidate Mike Nahan complaining of expensive Labor campaign in Riverton, but says it has come at the expense of Labor defeats in Southern River and Jandakot.

8.38pm. Talk of Greens preferences overall behaving in peculiar ways. Labor can normally depend on at least 70 per cent of them and is reportedly not getting them.

8.35pm. 37.5 per cent counted in Fremantle, parts of which are greener than others, but Greens well ahead of Liberal 29.5 per cent to 27.3 per cent and Jim McGinty on a very weak 39.9 per cent. Parts of Fremantle are greener than others, but McGinty in big trouble from there.

8.34pm. Looks like I wreak havoc wherever I tread – LP now crashing. Have added what I posted there below.

8.30pm. Steven Smith calling Morley for the Liberals, but thinks John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie. Thinks Albany in play, but we’ve heard nothing about it from ages. Collie-Preston, Riverton, Joondalup, Forrestfield and Wanneroo all more or less 50-50. Outer limits of best case scenario for Labor means minority government plus John Bowler.

8.20pm. Thanks Mark. Labor can only afford to lose nine seats.

Labor losses: Darling Range, Ocean Reef, Bunbury, Jandakot, Mt Lawley, Southern River, Swan Hills, Kingsley

Labor in trouble: Forrestfield, Wanneroo, North West, Wanneroo.

Close: Forrestfield, Collie-Preston, Joondalup, Riverton, Morley.

Miracles Labor can hope for: Albany, independent John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.

Shocks: Labor appears to have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams, and Jim McGinty might lost Fremantle to the Greens.

8.25pm. I’ve taken it over to Larvatus Prodeo.

8.13pm. Labor still ahead in Collie-Preston, just barely, with almost all booths counted.

8.10pm. ABC calling Joondalup for Labor, but I wouldn’t stake the bank on that yet.

8.08pm. Forrestfield “in trouble”, Steven Smith almost calling it.

8.06pm. Contest narrowing in Wanneroo …

8.06pm. But Matt Birney’s critique of The West up in lights.

8.05pm. Regarding the outages, I’ve just written to Larvatus Prodeo to see if I can do my live blog there, so keep an eye out there if I go down here for the long-term.

8.04pm. Matt Birney not sounding certain though.

8.01pm. Swing showing to Labor in Scarborough – probably an anomaly or an error.

8.00pm. Liberal also ahead in Forrestfield.

7.53pm. Labor out of the woods in Kimberley.

7.52pm. Now also chat of poor Greens preference flow, which if accurate means even bigger trouble.

7.48pm. Definite losses: Bunbury, Jandakot, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Ocean Reef, Darling Range. Big trouble: Wanneroo, Swan Hills, North West (though Swan Hills down from “LIB WIN” to “LIB AHEAD”). Possibly Labor gain in Albany, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Nothing lately from Kalgoorlie.

7.46pm. So Mount Lawley gone. Smith seems to think Labor need to win all of Wanneroo, Southern River, Joondalup, Riverton, Collie-Preston, and at least one of those seems unlikely. Swan Hills, North West gone … you’d almost start thinking about calling it.

7.45pm. News flash – early double digit swing in Wanneroo, computer calls it for Liberal.

7.44pm. No, Labor now ahead in Collie-Preston. The moral of the story is that these early ABC calls are probably less reliable than normal due to the redistribution and perhaps the high non-major party vote.

7.42pm. ABC calls Ocean Reef and Collie-Preston for Liberal.

7.40pm. I’m back … Labor appear to be conceding Mount Lawley, but they’re holding on in Riverton and might even win Albany, although I wouldn’t be sure about the latter – this will be the rural booths where Labor didn’t campaign in the past. The city booths could still lose it for them.

7.35pm. Labor back ahead in Riverton.

7.32pm. Bad news continues to accumulate for Labor – Liberal now ahead in Riverton.

7.31pm. Liberal now ahead in Alfred Cove.

7.29pm. It’s calling Cannington for Liberal is well. Labor had better hope that there are a lot of anomalies coming through at the moment.

7.28pm. ABC calls Mount Lawley for Liberal with double digit swing.

7.27pm. ABC calls Pilbara for Liberal, which means it’s all over if so. I wouldn’t call that seat quite yet, but a number of bad results are accumulating for Labor.

7.25pm. Stephen Smith suggests trouble in North West as well. I believe what he just said about Riverton is out of date now, i.e. a new booth has been better for them.

7.24pm. One piece of good news for Labor: swing in Riverton a manageable 0.6 per cent with 8.9 per cent counted.

7.24pm. ABC computer has Liberals ahead in Kimberley with 7.9 per cent swing, 5.3 per cent counted.

7.18pm. Very ugly swing against Labor in Cannington also.

7.18pm. Third news flash: Also calls Southern River for Liberal. Huge trouble for Labor if this keeps up.

7.17pm. Another news flash: ABC calls Jandakot for Liberal, 10 per cent swing from 6.6 per cent. Big shock.

7.14pm. News flash: ABC calls Swan Hills for Liberal. I wouldn’t quite call it yet: 6.6 per cent swing from 5.9 per cent counted not good for Labor though.

7.13pm. ABC calls Morley for Labor, but its judgements can be awry when independents are involved. John D’Orazio not looking in the hunt.

7.16pm. ABC calls Scarborough for Liberal, 3.9 per cent swing from 18.8 per cent counted.

7.13pm. I speak too soon – now “LIB AHEAD” by 0.4 per cent, 25.7 per cent counted.

7.12pm. Labor still highly competitive in Collie-Preston with 22.6 per cent counted.

7.10pm. ABC computer has “ALP AHEAD” in Albany, but only 5.2 counted.

7.09pm. First two Nedlands booths encouraging for Sue Walker.

7.09pm. First booth from Swan Hills, Gidgegannup Town Hall, gives Labor a dangerous 7.1 per cent Liberal swing.

7.08pm ABC computer calls Kalamunda for Liberals.

7.06pm. Labor might be a little troubled by 5.5 per cent swing from 5.5 per cent counted in Girrawheen, if it proves typical for the northern suburbs.

7.04pm. Labor doing a little better than I had expected in the first rural booths from Collie-Preston.

7.03pm. ABC computer calls Bunbury for Liberal – 9.5 per cent swing from 6.3 per cent counted.

6.58pm. Early Alfred Cove results show Janet Woollard might struggle to get ahead of Labor – down to Greens preferences. This from the Labor-voting end of the electorate though.

6.51pm. Two good early booths in for Labor from West Swan, maybe boding well for them in Swan Hills.

6.50pm. Julie Bishop reading too much into early Morley figures.

6.49pm. Very strong performance from Bowler also on early pre-poll votes.

6.47pm. Very encouraging first booth for John Bowler in Kalgoorlie – Kalgoorlie District Education Office, 434 votes.

6.42pm. Only 289 votes, but the Lower Kalgan Hall booth in Albany has swung heavily to Labor.

6.29pm. “Early Votes (In Person)” starting to appear – pre-polls, in other words.

6.28pm. Very first rural booths show encouraging signs for the Nationals.

6.00pm. Welcome everybody. Polling booths are now closed: very first results should be in from about 20 minutes. While away the time by viewing my election day snaps, and keep an eye on the tussle for Mayo in the thread below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

993 comments on “Western Australian election live”

Comments Page 19 of 20
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  1. 900
    Glen Says:
    September 7th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
    Geee its getting nicer being a Liberal every dayโ€ฆ.

    Don’t forget – John Howard lost government AND his seat! Was it good being a Liberal then?

  2. Re: Glen 900

    Well surely it couldn’t get much worse being a Lib when you were out on your rear everywhere down to Brisbane City?

  3. Glen,

    Did you get soft overseas? “CCC report and the Gas Explosion REport”?

    How about:

    1. Standing Royal Commission into the Building Industry
    2. Royal Commission into the CFMEU and associated parties
    3. Revised CCC legislation and criminal prosecutions
    4. Investigation into Local Government activities
    5. Gas Investigation

    for starters?

    There has been malfeasance which must be rooted out for the sake of the state?

  4. How does those things make it nicer Glen?

    I am trying to ask a question about the sore winner attitude of some bloggers (like you)

    Why is there some undertone or implication by you Liberals that things will be made tough for Labor supporters i.e. working people?

    That is the language of someone trying to maintain class struggle not dissolve it.

  5. Dave as I said last night , the WA election was Labor’s Stalingrad. It ends with the fall of big daddy in December 2012 in Canberra.

  6. Despite the obvious glee, the facts are that the Libs and Nats in WA are not the same as in NSW and Vic. They are an independant separate party with their own agenda, policies and priorities.

    The WA Nats were supposed to be “wiped out” in this one vote – one value election, they were not. Why? Because they intentionally and vociferously let people know they were not just the “rural liberals”.

    This is a lesson to the Nats federally – if you want to stop bleeding seats to independents and then eventually to the Libs you need to be different. Not just a de-facto arm of the Libs. How do you press this message home? Guess. ๐Ÿ™‚

    This result will kill any Federal merger of the two parties. ๐Ÿ˜›

  7. 904
    Edward StJohn – I have been overseas for 4 months…I’m getting into the swing of things slowly but surely.

    BBD – why do you assume ‘working’ people will be worse off, and havent these people put the Libs within striking distance of victory, it would be foolish to make them worse off wouldnt it?

    BBD – and if you’d like to experience sore winners, merely look at November 27th 2007, granted it was 11 years since they’d been in power but still they were not being gracious winners at all.

  8. Sean, if Carps does that the ALP will be wiped out in future elections in WA. For Labor to form a Government based on Labor Independents (Bowler) who lost his job because of corruption and Brian Burke would be idiotic.

  9. BBD @ 906,
    It’s only the Labor supporters who are claiming that a Barnett Govt will make things worse for working people.
    And your talk about “sore winners” is a joke, surely? If you want to see someone who’s sore, look at LaborVoter – what an angry little bear he/she is today!
    Note of caution though – this election hasn’t actually been conclusively decided yet. Still plenty of counting to come, and horse-trading! I agree with ruawake and others – could be weeks of manoeuvring left!

  10. If I hear one more person say the ALP cares about the workers I’m going to puke!

    K.Rudd has admitted people are worst off than they were a year ago! so far the federal ALP have done nothing to write home about.

    I’m sorry to Willam but having been around politics for twenty years I have to laugh when ALP people start talking about the workers!

    The ALP sold them out many moons ago, today you are simplly a Political Party just the same as the Liberals, Nationals, Family First, Greens etc.

    If the ALP were so good why did ACOSS say on radio last night that WA had the same number of Public Housing properties that it had 10 years ago! so much for the ALP’s concern about Housing.

    Please drop your class crap

  11. Well Glen

    I behaved that night and agreed with you, ESJ and Tabitha etc when you were all complaining about peoples attitudes and i agreed

    now you are being a hypocrit

    seccondly it was pro uranium greens that got you this close have some fun with them why dont ya?

  12. On another note, congratulations to Julie Bishop on winning the award for “most smug person on the planet,” after her constant whinging. Further, now claiming that whatever narrow margin the ALP end up losing by in WA, this is all bad news for Rudd and he must go!!

    PLEASE JULIE!

    Note that the former holder of the award, Peter Costello, has been strangely quiet recently.

  13. Is this “royalties for regions” another version of Vaille’s Regional Rorts program.

    However, state Nationals leader Brendan Grylls has indicated his party’s support would depend on the Liberals’ support for the $700 million “royalties for regions” infrastructure plan.

    Mr Truss said the WA Nationals would be independent if the Liberals did not support the “royalties for regions” plan.

    Nationals considering leaving Liberal coalition after Lyne vote
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24307511-5006301,00.html

  14. Julie Bishop is extremely amusing with her delusins of adequacy. I loved it when she claimed that Carps lost government because of the distillate tax (yeah I don’t know what it is either) that Rudd wanted to apply.
    Hordes of little old ladies flooding into the polling booths against it…
    LOL. keep her on. She’s great entertainment value.

  15. Well, I got the lower house guesses pathetically wrong in my tips. I couldn’t even get North West right… I thought Sweetman would get up. Maybe I was right about Mick Murray though.

    I did, however, reckon the Nats could get two seats in Agricultural, and it looks like they have indeed – outpolled the Libs ‘n’ all. And did anybody at all tip Robin Chapple getting back in for M&P?

    Here are the ABC LC results, what they reckon anyway:

    East Met: Lib 3 / ALP 2 / Grn 1. Carrn Alison Xamon… at least somebody I voted for got up.

    North Met: Doesn’t say yet, but surely Giz Watson got back in with that big swing to the Greens, so 3/2/1 result there too – who got 3? I dunno.

    South Met: Lib 3 / ALP 3.

    Agricultural: Nat 2 / Lib 2 / ALP 1 / CDP 1.

    Mining and Pastoral: Nat 2 / ALP 2 / Lib 1 / Grn 1.

    South West: Lib 3 / ALP 2 / Nat 1. No Sullivan, then, and Paul Llewllyn goes bye byes.

    So, total: Lib 14 (15?) / ALP 13 (12?) / Nat 5 / Grn 3 / CDP 1. The Nats and Greens have both done well; Libs and Nats have >18 seats, so the CDP won’t have the balance.

  16. the liberal party -best friend the workers ever had J howard (just before introducing worstchoices)

    worstchoices- a chance to earn a minimum wage whilst keeping maximum dignity
    (p costello -hr nichols speech)

    worstchoices-institutionalised serfdom perpetuated by law designed to entrench permanently the boss(master) worker(slave) status-(the australian public 27 NOVEMBER 2007)

  17. Does anyone know what has happened to the 425 missing votes in Morley?

    Total Valid Votes…..16556
    But on WAEC it has the total votes after distribution…..16131
    ABC has it as 16556

    That leaves 425 votes that have disappeared?

  18. Also, if Warren Truss can’t see exactly what he needs to do, he’s a fool. The NSW Nats are the right hand of the Liberals, and got pwned in Lyne; the WA Nats are their own people, and have got their best result since 1996 – they’re actually where they were before One Nation came along.

    I wonder what Lawrence Springborg’s thinking right now?

  19. Gusface! yes that is why we threw them out! as of yet the ALP have not radically changed the IR laws, infact the Business community seems closer to this Government than the previous one which in itself is a good think considering the currant globel climate.

  20. Antony Green has put up a blog comment on the ABC website http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2008/09/updating-wester.html#more

    I note he says
    “However, the two-candidate preferred totals do not include preference counts for the postal and pre-poll votes, which already means the preference count on the WAEC site is starting to be misleading.

    There are also incomplete totals which are clouding analysis. In both North West and Wanneroo, the preference count show Labor leading, but if you look closely, the preference count clearly does not include a preference count for every booth.”

  21. Did I read correctly – National preferences flowing strongly to Labor? Well I guess that blows the theory that Nat voters put Labor last. ๐Ÿ™‚

  22. It all comes down, to Riverton, Forrestfield, Albany, Morely, Wanneroo….with postals and prepolls, id say at best Riverton (ahead), Wanneroo (ahead), possibly Morely and Forrestfield i dont know about Albany (probably ALP win) but if Labor cop it in those 3/4 seats they are done like a Turkey.

    Everything has to fall Labors way to hold onto power.

    Still the result is still undecided.

    It looked as though Antony was not enjoying his night given the WAEC’s poor performance so who can blame him.

  23. A message has been sent to all parties. Take the electorate for granted and you will be punished. I don’t see that the liberal vote was anything special either.

    It is this dumb system of preferential voting where the highest two get everyone elses votes distributed to them – talk about a mixed up, unrepresentative system.

    A proportional voting system would give a sounder result for the lower house. Course you would get more independants and a broader balance of power and therefore by definition a better democracy so of course the power brokers wont be suggesting this anytime soon.

    We can but dream………..

  24. I wonder how our Liberal friends will react when Brendan Grylls & Alan Carpenter appear at a joint News Conference announcing an alliance to form Government ? ๐Ÿ™‚

    The look on their faces will be priceless ๐Ÿ™‚

  25. BoP@919
    Hmmm, Libs & Nats with 19 LC seats…if Barnett is Premier will he have a go at electoral reform? Will they try and reintroduce the old province system in the LC and increase the number of regional lower house MP’s? Or will they leave it well alone and consider themselves lucky to have an improved version of the old system?

  26. KPD – I lived through the time in NSW when the independents held the balance of power. It was a state of paralysis and if memory serves me, most of the independents including Dawn Fraser were chucked out at the next election.

    The only people who prefer proportional voting are those who benefit (eg. Greens)

  27. 928
    Frank Calabrese – If you’ve read the news reports Grylls has said he wont make up his mind until he has met BOTH major party leaders.

    Ahhh false hope is hilarious to watch Frank, your posts will be priceless next week.

  28. MB
    perhaps a peruse of hansard might bring you up to speed on current ir matters,

    BTW also I note the chance of a boilover seems to cooling say what!

    I think ESJ mentioned an echo or somesuch last night-very prescient but a tad self directed methinks-hope his foot is ok

  29. Steve Annabelle
    It was only a time of paralysis because you the independents couldn’t make a decision!
    Countries with this system, such as Germany and New Zealand (who used to have first past the post until about 10 years ago) seem to be vibrant forward looking democracies.
    No reason why we cant either.

  30. 927 kpd

    Makes an interesting point for while I support the current system if I think back to the Governments of 100+ years ago, we had several very good Governments and several really good Politicians.

    Interestingly many Governments were not so partisan, sure there were clashes between Liberals, Radicals, Progressive, Conservates, Free Traders & Protectionist and while there was no shortage of corruption and pork but generally the Governents were good governments.

  31. Aug 11th 2008

    “The Liberal Leader Colin Barnett has cancelled a meeting with Nationals’ Brendon Grylls, saying he will not particpate in a Nationals ‘stunt’.”

    Ooops ๐Ÿ™‚

  32. 890
    ruawake Says:
    September 7th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
    What about this scenario?

    The Nats continue to say they will not form a coalition with either party and will not say how they intend to vote when there is a confidence vote.

    So when Parliament gets recalled Labor are still the Govt. The Govenor must allow Labor to try to form a Govt. because they have the most seats.

    This saga has weeks to run.

    There is no requirement for the Governor to allow the party with most seats to try to form a government. On the other hand, the initiative doesn’t lie with the Governor. Theoretically he has the power to act first and dismiss the Premier, but that isn’t going to happen. In practice, the initiative lies with the Premier. If he thinks his government still has a chance, he can meet Parliament and let events there determine what happens next. Otherwise, he can tender his resignation to the Governor, in which case the usual (although not the mandatory) thing would be for him to tender formal advice at the same time about who should be commissioned to replace him. It is most unlikely that people will wait until Parliament meets to negotiate and to declare their positions, so it is also most unlikely that the situation will need to wait until Parliament meets to be resolved. Once upon a time waiting to meet Parliament was a real part of the process, but in modern conditions it is virtually certain to be only a formality, and a formality which in normal circumstances it looks bad to insist on going through–although it can make sense as a tactic in unusual circumstances, as in South Australia in 1968.

  33. Gusface. I’m aware that the Government has made some changes to the IR laws but generally they have kepted some parts of workchoices!

  34. Further to previous post the recent moves by Telstra at first appeared to have had the support of the Government! the Minister was somewhat vague in her response to Telstra’s moves to exclude Unions from wage negotations.

  35. Also if Antony is right than the results in North West and Wanneroo are not concrete in other words all this talk of the ALP winning North West is bunkum.

  36. why would anyone who has the ability to speak lucidly and intelligantly wish a union official to speak for them? surely the result is a lowering of the potential benefit/outcome due to the union wishing everyone to be on one level? This may be good for the union but it is a very poor result for the working man who could negotiate a better result.

  37. scrutineer numbers from ALP say NW is an ALP win Glen

    and confirmed via a phone call to vince’s Campaign Manager as per my post earlier.

  38. This may be good for the union but it is a very poor result for the working man who could negotiate a better result.

    This was settled at the last Federal election with the defeat of Howard and the hated Workchoices.

    You may not understand that, but it is true nevertheless. Get over it. Your side lost the argument.

  39. kpd- what planet do you live on?

    A telstra worker would do better one on one with Telstra than being part of a Union campaign?

    Why then doesnt Barnet run as an independant instead of being part of the organised conservative movement (if movement could describe what the Libs do?)

    Get a grip

  40. Kpd! you make an excellant point my experiance is some Unions do nothing for workers but the point is the ALP makes out it and the Unions are the workers friends

  41. Put yourselves in Grylls’ shoes, he want the Nats to have a different “Brand” (Hate that term).

    Memerelda comes out and says basically “The Nats will form a Coalition with the Libs”. Grylls says hold your horses Ms Mesmer, how do you like these apples?

    How do you change the perception that the Nats are really closet Libs?

    Its not rocket science. ๐Ÿ˜›

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