Mayo by-election count thread

I will not be providing live blogging for either of tonight’s by-elections, but here’s a space for you all to discuss the figures from Mayo as they come in.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

221 comments on “Mayo by-election count thread”

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  1. Just back from the polling booth – judging by the preferences shown by who took what HTV card, I’d say it’s going to be very close, and the Greens or Di Bell the independant might snatch it on preferences. No wonder the Libs were worried.

    I guess we’ll have more of an idea in an hour or so.

  2. I am hoping for an upset, but the cynic in me still thinks Briggs will scrape home. But I would never underestimate Di Bell, I know she has impressed a lot of people in Mayo. And Briggs has certainly not impressed some areas of the electorate, particularly with those anti-Green pamphlets. The Libs losing Mayo…could it really happen?

  3. If the swing were replicated across the electorate… (serious back of the envelope, from memory)

    Libs on 43%, Greens on 20%…but even then I’d expect FF to pref the Libs back in.

  4. I’m hoping that Greens voters and Di Bell supporters will do enough to push Briggs to preferences, then it’s anyone’s game, surely.

  5. Briggs falling slightly, he’s now on 45, whereas Greens + Bell is about 35%. If it gets a bit closer I could see something happening. Greens polling 21.87%. Pretty good, although we always do better when the Labor Party don’t run than when the Liberals are the absent party.

  6. Briggs is down to 43% now. Greens + Bell is at 37%. There is very few votes cast but if this pattern continues it could be very interesting.

  7. I assume Day will preference the independent before either the Liberal or Green. If so Di Bell is a big chance of finishing ahead of the Greens candidate. She would win I would think.

    Briggs’ primary vote is now only 42.44%. That is too low. He’s in trouble!

  8. Briggs’ primary vote is down to 41% with 17 booths in. The TPP looks like it might be maverick. It is possible that a candidate (Di Bell) wins a seat with less 20% of the primary vote.

  9. Libs must be thanking their lucky stars GRN & Bell votes are not reversed. Greens are the Libs best friend tonight. Cant see them winning but their holding out Bell. Bell votes will leak & FF will go solidly to Libs (or rather against Green). But if Bell can manage to overtake the greens, looks like she will win…

  10. [Libs must be thanking their lucky stars GRN & Bell votes are not reversed. ]

    Yeah, if only they had each other’s spots on the ballot.

  11. Would be useful to see some scrutineer figures here on:

    (i) split of Day prefs between Liberal, Green and Bell
    (ii) split of Green prefs between Lib and Green.

    These would give a good idea of whether the scenario of Day beating the Libs from third place on the preferences of an ex-Lib FF candidate is realistic. If anyone can post anything of this sort here we can crunch some rough numbers.

  12. Thing is, we aren’t going to know if Bell overtakes the Greens in the count tonight, cause of the way counting work.

    We are going to be waiting a while

  13. If Bell is only a couple of % behind the Greens I could see them overtaking the Greens with FF + Other preferences then winning on Greens preferences.

  14. My understanding is that Day had an open ticket, ie no preferences recommended to anyone.

    I’m starting to feel torn. I want the Greens to do as well as possible, because a good result here will be a boost for them everywhere. A good result for Bell is nice, but it has less significance elsewhere.

    However, if Bell can get past the Greens on preferences it looks like she has a real shot, much better than Vonow has if he stays ahead. Who to barrak for?

  15. Any word on HTVs of micro candidates like Brewerton, Spragg, McCabe? If they decide the split between FFP and Bell, whoever is eliminated first will tell us how the night will play out.

  16. Actually I think Bell would probably win on the votes as they stand. She’s near FF on the Ballot and will get a lot more FF prefs than the GRN. If she beats the GRN to second place she’ll win on these figures.

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