Mayo by-election count thread

I will not be providing live blogging for either of tonight’s by-elections, but here’s a space for you all to discuss the figures from Mayo as they come in.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

221 comments on “Mayo by-election count thread”

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  1. Democrats = kaput. Even the party that campaigns via sock puppets onere beat them. *shakes head*

    Is their one remaining MLC in SA doing much with herself, or just waiting for the inevitable?

  2. You said it, BOP. She’s trying to remain relevant by being as controversial as possible, but at the end of the day she’s toast.

  3. Yep, Bell is looking a distinct possiblity. Given the ballot order, I suspect a lot of FF voters will break to Bell.

    What a turn up this would be!

  4. FF Prefs for Mayo last time went: 52% Lib, 25% Green, 23% Labor. So much for FF voters being disciplined. It would be tricky but not impossible for Bell to overtake Greens.

  5. This is only the first by-election for the democrats since they lost their last senators. There’s a school of thought that the party was blessed but also cursed by its senators. I’d like to believe that let loose from the senate, the democrats can rediscover their purpose. It’s a multi-year rebuilding process though, and I wonder if we have the time.

  6. OTH – good information. AEC will no doubt get it right but I hope the Bell group has their scutineers on the job. Assuming that about 30% of all the rest of votes except Briggs Vonow and Bell go to Briggs (which allows about 50% of Day votes and is in line with current split where Briggs gets about 12/38 with the Lib/Green 2PP) then Bell would need to get a bit over 75% of the rest. Thats a long shot but possible. But worse is that Bell would then need to get about 92% of the split when Vonow is eliminated which would be remarkable. Live in hope that the outstanding votes – postals etc pull Briggs down lower to make it easier.

  7. The 92% will be a bit tricky, but given that Labor consistently gets 80-85% of Greens prefs, could we expect the figure to nudge 90%?

    Imagine if Mayo went from 11.3% to <1% which would be implied by a 80% Bell share of 2PP.

    So a Bell win is quite unlikely, but shouldn’t be ruled out at the moment.

  8. So, has the Messiah’s hiatus contribution to the Mayo fiasco been publicly acknowledged by the OO? It would have to be the significant factor. Shouldn’t the libs be excoriating him for maintaining and contributing to fed lib leadership instability? Isn’t it time that senior lib powerbrokers said something like:

    ‘Costello, you are helping destroy us: Piss or get off the pot.’

    The OO is continuing its fascination with the Rudd’s government lack of narrative. They might want to suggest a narrative for the Opposition: ‘Serial moral cowardice.’

  9. Jen:

    Jen says:[i]would like to see how Julie Bishop spins this one….[i?]

    I dont think she needs to say anything. They suffered a 10.54% swing
    7.41 of the swing went to FF (Bob Day – Ex Liberal) and 1.81 went to the DLP (total 9.22%).

    1.19% swing is not bad considering a backlash of 2 to 3 % is expected in Bi Elections


  10. Australian Democrats have had their National Executive Ballot and the South Australian Division is just about to have their AGM. Mayo voting result is sobering and thank you everyone of the 700+ who did. If you want to more than vote your support you are very welcome to join and continue making a difference …

  11. The Democrats brand name has proven to be the kiss of death to any candidate they run, no matter how good the candidate or how positive the media coverage in the local newspapers and radio.

    I ran the Mayo campaign for the Democrats and was thrilled with the response we got from the local media. I worked hard, Andrew Castrique (the Democrats candidate) worked hard and in the end it amounted to almost nothing.

    The positive thing from our campaign was organising a debate/public forum at Strathalbyn about the River Murray. 250 people showed up.

    We were given the run around by the Liberal party and on the day of the debate Mr Briggs was trying to bully the facilitator and us into changing the format and start time. It was this bullying and Mr Briggs aggressive demeanour to those who asked questions that resulted in a massive 13.99% swing against him in that booth. Also contributing to that swing away from the Liberals was a large swing to local Di Bell who lives at Finniss which is nearby.

    So where to for the Dems? Only time will tell. It is only a matter of time before a decision on their future is made by the party and its members. It really is a matter for the party to discuss and decide in the coming months.

    On another point, turnout was way down (74.46%. Which is unusual for Mayo.) Many people who went through my polling booth just happened to be visiting the local library next to the polling booth and then came through saying they had no idea there was an election on.

    I put this down to mismanagement of this by-election by the Australian Electoral Commission who only sent out one pamphlet to all householders and advertised once in the Adelaide Advertiser (somewhere in the middle) on the Thursday before. The Advertiser and Messenger papers also did not pay too much attention to the by-election in the lead up.

    There will be lots of people receiving fines for not voting as a result.

  12. The Dems have been clinically dead for several years and the corpse ought now to be given a decent burial. The name will however probably be maintained by a handful of cranks, like the Communist Party and the DLP. Serious people in the Dems should join either the Greens, the ALP or the Libs according to taste.

  13. Labor have been morally dead for several years and the corpse ought now to be given a decent burial. The name is already maintained by a handful of cranks, like the like Liberal Party and the DLP. Serious people in Labor should join either the Greens, the Dems or vote independent according to taste.

  14. It’s been fascinating listening to Jamie Briggs and others spin this result into something not so bad for the Libs. They claim that this result was to be expected and was due to losing a popular local member, plus the fact that there were 11 candidates standing.
    Fact number 1 – this “popular local member” had a swing of 2.56% against him on primaries last November (6.5% TPP); one of the largest swings in the state.
    Fact number 2 – the number of candidates standing is only an issue when those said candidates hate you and what you stand for and consequently preference against you.
    Fact number 3 – following on from point 2, in any case it is the VOTERS who decide where to put their preferences, so if most of the people voting choose to put you low down on their list then you need to consider the possibility that the voters also hate you and what you stand for and they knew exactly what they were doing.
    Fact number 4 – this always has been a rock solid Liberal seat and while the demographics are changing they aren’t changing fast enough for that to be a factor in this election. The problem in this case was clearly the CANDIDATE, what he stands for and the way he was parachuted into the seat. People resented it, and not just Bob Day and his mates. Jamie Briggs needs to have a long, hard look in the mirror (but I suspect it will only confirm how much he loves himself).

    Next election will be very interesting. A lot will have to do with the way Briggs conducts himself both locally and in the parliament and the new housing developments both south and north in the electorate might start to play a part. Who knows? In a few elections time we might be talking about this as being a rock solid Green seat…

  15. The Liberals main problem in Mayo was the lack of a Labor bogeyman. People knew that a vote for a Green or Independent wasn’t going to elect a Labor Member and voted accordingly.

  16. Mayo is still a safe Lib seat in ALP v Lib terms and always will be as long as they are the two majors.

    But change to Lib v independent and most seats will favour the independent, eg Lyne. It’s just that there is usually a Labor candidate to spoil the independent. This time there wasn’t, and the Greens got close. In fact even the Greens may have been a spoiler here, with the Bell v Briggs count probably the smaller margin.

    The trouble is that Labor normally contests every seat, rather than saying “Who’s the most Labor-like person who might win it” and letting, say, the Greens have a go at Mayo. They might both sit out of Barker and see if an indy wins it.

    The Liberals might do likewise, sitting out for Adelaide, seeing if a FF or mate of Xenophon waltzes into an otherwise safe seat.

    It wouldn’t happen, but it would be interesting – lots more seats would become marginals again.

  17. [ People knew that a vote for a Green or Independent wasn’t going to elect a Labor Member and voted accordingly. ]

    Nor would it necessarily. The option is always there to vote Green-Lib-ALP… this isn’t the Senate with ticket voting. Looks to me like last time the ALP took it for granted as a loss, and this time a bunch of non-Libs didn’t – hence the big swing against the Libs.

  18. I Voted DLP. No regrets. ANY independent would be better than a Liberal or Green yes-man. Democrats are dead and I’ve always disliked Family First and One Nation.

    I agree the next election is going to be interesting because it is possible the Greens and Labor may be able to gradually win the seat.

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