Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Mayo by-election count thread
I will not be providing live blogging for either of tonight’s by-elections, but here’s a space for you all to discuss the figures from Mayo as they come in.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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2007 Lib overall 2PP was boosted by 0.6% by prepolls, provisionals, postals and absents. So looks like Greens need to get to something like 50.6 2PP on the night to win this. Currently the Libs are at 50.7. Day has dropped to just over 11 and Bell still has nearly seven points to catch the Greens off those votes plus 9.6 points of shrapnel. Again I doubt that’s all that realistic so *most likely* the Libs will scrape in but it’s not a good result for them.
“Between 1996 and 2007 there were nine by-election, three in Liberal held seats and six in Labor held seat. In its eleven years in office, the Howard government never once nominated a candidate for a by-election in a Labor held electorate.”
Antony Green
But of course the ALP are ‘gutless’…
Spragg is a scientist who’s pro-Murray. His HTV has Briggs and day last. His preferences go to Vonow via Bell.
I don’t think this will make any difference with regards to Higgins. Yes the margin in Higgins is lower (I think) but its the kind of seat that doesn’t swing as such and is less attractive for minor party candidates. I’m not saying Labor couldn’t win Higgins in a by-election but its highly unlikely.
Having said that, strange things often happen in by-elections.
Four booths still to come in on primaries. Two of them very small (not sure what’s taking them so long). One of the others is Stirling West, one of the Greenest booths in the state, although not so good for Labor so may not apply this time.
Now 51.48 TPP – Greens need to pull back a lot in Nairne and Goolwa without getting hit too bad in Strathalbyn…
Andrew Castrique preferenced Bell 2 and the Greens 5.
Waiting for La Gumeracha
Day must be kicking himself for not directing preferences!
Malcolm King said this about the Murray;
Unless someone is shot and the dams demolished, the greedy people will not release water. It will have to be compulsory acquisition.
I think it’s safe to assume his preferences won’t end up with Briggs. 😀
Does anyone know what the Briggs v Bell 2PP would be?
2PP now 52-48 to the Libs, looks like they scraaape in.
The AEC won’t count the Briggs V Bell 2CP until the full count is done on Monday, so the Libs can still lose it, keep the hope.
Actually it looks like the AEC are factoring in polling booth differences in their 2PPs so when it was 50.16 it really *looked* that close (for a moment).
Waiting for 2CPs from:
Callington
Cherry Gardens
Goolwa Central
Gumeracha (both)
Meadows
Nairne
Stirling West
Strathalbyn
Woodside
Anyone offer comments on these places?
It says “projected” TPP, so maybe there is some degree of guestimation happening as well…
AEC website only has 67.11% counted so far so hold your hats. 78 of 79 booths in though.
Gumeracha is Mary Brewerton’s home turf, so she might get her deposit back yet!
That was Callington, result still very steady.
Or not.
Callington back off the site, I think.
And it’s back.
Ufff. This is a silly count.
The OO spins/ calls it for Briggs. The crap just keeps piling up there.
On a two-party preferred basis, Mr Briggs had almost 55 per cent, enough for him to comfortably retain the seat for the federal opposition.
VONOW, Lynton The Greens 14,188 22.57 +11.37
BARONS, Rachael Conservatives for Climate and Environment 579 0.92 -0.33
SPRAGG, Bill Independent 1,357 2.16 +2.16
KEIZER, Mathew One Nation 410 0.65 +0.65
BREWERTON, Mary Independent 1,507 2.40 +2.40
CASTRIQUE, Andrew Australian Democrats 773 1.23 -0.29
BRIGGS, Jamie Liberal 25,252 40.17 -10.22
KING, Malcolm Ronald Independent 164 0.26 +0.26
DAY, Bob Family First Party 7,024 11.17 +7.07
McCABE, David D.L.P. – Democratic Labor Party 1,117 1.78 +1.78
BELL, Di Independent 10,490 16.69 +16.69
Gumeracha in completely.
I don’t know how The Oz are projecting 55% TPP for Briggs – unless they’ve got different projection models to the AEC…
The only hope is Bell now, sigh
Lib on 25252
Vonow + Bell on 24678
First prefs now returned for all booths
Lib 40.17
Green 22.57
Bell 16.69
Day 11.17
rest 9.4
Bell has a bit over 20 points of Day+rest to bridge almost six points to the Greens to win the seat. Greens can’t really do it from here barring something bizarre on postals (51.9:48.1 2PP, six booths to go.)
I think the Oz are using the same predictor they use to explain the newspolls. 🙂
Oh, well, Libs down 10% on primaries is absolutely nothing for them to gloat about in a heartland seat.
Fingers crossed for Bell.
Re the Aus story they filed with only 16% counted hence the too-high 2PP for Briggs.
So we have to wait till Monday night to for final outcome?
Kevin
Well they made a bad mistake then!!
Back to 51.6:48.4
51.5:48.5
And back down to 51.6 with latest booth removed.
Strathalbyn still not in – looks like a win for the Libs (unless Bell sneaks in front of the Greens on the actual preference count)…
Given that Greens normally do very badly on postals this is going to be tough. We do well on absentees, but there will be trivial numbers of those (how many May voters are in Lyne today?) Prepolls can go either way.
Bell might still be a shot though – she closed the gap a bit on the last few booths. Needs a bit under net 30% of the smaller guys and Day. Day has no chance of overtaking her.
So if Day plus the minnows break 50% Bell, 30% Briggs, 20% Vonow then Bell’s in with a shot of overtaking Vonow. I don’t know how much better than him she’ll do, but you’d think 4% was not off the cards, and since Vonow’s likely to be above 46% even after postals you can’t rule her out.
Postals will favour the Libs this time.
Charming.
Plenty of staunch Liberal voters saw no reason to change, but with preferences likely to play a crucial role in the final outcome the Liberal Party used hardball tactics to grab second preference support.
Several voters objected to a green pamphlet outlining Jamie Briggs’ environmental credentials which they claimed may imply he was in fact a Green.
Others were appalled by a Liberal flyer reading: “If you are voting for Family First, please ensure you give your 2nd preference to Jamie Briggs, Liberal.”
Result not over yet. Quite a few votes still to count. And also hard to know whether Bell still has a chance. I would expect that Bell would get more votes than Vonow from other independents and FF but whether enough to get ahead of Vonow needs analysis. But if Bell gets ahead she would pick up a pretty high % of Green prefs. Wait and see.
hmmm
Wow strong result by the Greens. The Democrats have confirmed in this election that they really are dead. They lost votes with no Labor candidate in a seat which they used to regularly attract over 10% (sometimes over 20%) of the vote.
2007 Lib overall 2PP was boosted by 0.6% by prepolls, provisionals, postals and absents. So looks like Greens need to get to something like 50.6 2PP on the night to win this. Currently the Libs are at 50.7. Day has dropped to just over 11 and Bell still has nearly seven points to catch the Greens off those votes plus 9.6 points of shrapnel. Again I doubt that’s all that realistic so *most likely* the Libs will scrape in but it’s not a good result for them.
“Between 1996 and 2007 there were nine by-election, three in Liberal held seats and six in Labor held seat. In its eleven years in office, the Howard government never once nominated a candidate for a by-election in a Labor held electorate.”
Antony Green
But of course the ALP are ‘gutless’…
Spragg is a scientist who’s pro-Murray. His HTV has Briggs and day last. His preferences go to Vonow via Bell.
SwingLowe @#143
Here is a link to Bill Spragg’s website.
http://www.billspragg.id.au/
I don’t think this will make any difference with regards to Higgins. Yes the margin in Higgins is lower (I think) but its the kind of seat that doesn’t swing as such and is less attractive for minor party candidates. I’m not saying Labor couldn’t win Higgins in a by-election but its highly unlikely.
Having said that, strange things often happen in by-elections.
Four booths still to come in on primaries. Two of them very small (not sure what’s taking them so long). One of the others is Stirling West, one of the Greenest booths in the state, although not so good for Labor so may not apply this time.
Now 51.48 TPP – Greens need to pull back a lot in Nairne and Goolwa without getting hit too bad in Strathalbyn…
Andrew Castrique preferenced Bell 2 and the Greens 5.
Waiting for La Gumeracha
Day must be kicking himself for not directing preferences!
Malcolm King said this about the Murray;
I think it’s safe to assume his preferences won’t end up with Briggs. 😀
Does anyone know what the Briggs v Bell 2PP would be?
2PP now 52-48 to the Libs, looks like they scraaape in.
The AEC won’t count the Briggs V Bell 2CP until the full count is done on Monday, so the Libs can still lose it, keep the hope.
Actually it looks like the AEC are factoring in polling booth differences in their 2PPs so when it was 50.16 it really *looked* that close (for a moment).
Waiting for 2CPs from:
Callington
Cherry Gardens
Goolwa Central
Gumeracha (both)
Meadows
Nairne
Stirling West
Strathalbyn
Woodside
Anyone offer comments on these places?
It says “projected” TPP, so maybe there is some degree of guestimation happening as well…
AEC website only has 67.11% counted so far so hold your hats. 78 of 79 booths in though.
Gumeracha is Mary Brewerton’s home turf, so she might get her deposit back yet!
That was Callington, result still very steady.
Or not.
Callington back off the site, I think.
And it’s back.
Ufff. This is a silly count.
The OO spins/ calls it for Briggs. The crap just keeps piling up there.
Swing to Greens in Downer’s old seat
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24305578-12377,00.html
Final Primaries in:
VONOW, Lynton The Greens 14,188 22.57 +11.37
BARONS, Rachael Conservatives for Climate and Environment 579 0.92 -0.33
SPRAGG, Bill Independent 1,357 2.16 +2.16
KEIZER, Mathew One Nation 410 0.65 +0.65
BREWERTON, Mary Independent 1,507 2.40 +2.40
CASTRIQUE, Andrew Australian Democrats 773 1.23 -0.29
BRIGGS, Jamie Liberal 25,252 40.17 -10.22
KING, Malcolm Ronald Independent 164 0.26 +0.26
DAY, Bob Family First Party 7,024 11.17 +7.07
McCABE, David D.L.P. – Democratic Labor Party 1,117 1.78 +1.78
BELL, Di Independent 10,490 16.69 +16.69
Gumeracha in completely.
I don’t know how The Oz are projecting 55% TPP for Briggs – unless they’ve got different projection models to the AEC…
The only hope is Bell now, sigh
Lib on 25252
Vonow + Bell on 24678
First prefs now returned for all booths
Lib 40.17
Green 22.57
Bell 16.69
Day 11.17
rest 9.4
Bell has a bit over 20 points of Day+rest to bridge almost six points to the Greens to win the seat. Greens can’t really do it from here barring something bizarre on postals (51.9:48.1 2PP, six booths to go.)
I think the Oz are using the same predictor they use to explain the newspolls. 🙂
Oh, well, Libs down 10% on primaries is absolutely nothing for them to gloat about in a heartland seat.
Fingers crossed for Bell.
Re the Aus story they filed with only 16% counted hence the too-high 2PP for Briggs.
So we have to wait till Monday night to for final outcome?
Kevin
Well they made a bad mistake then!!
Back to 51.6:48.4
51.5:48.5
And back down to 51.6 with latest booth removed.
Strathalbyn still not in – looks like a win for the Libs (unless Bell sneaks in front of the Greens on the actual preference count)…
Given that Greens normally do very badly on postals this is going to be tough. We do well on absentees, but there will be trivial numbers of those (how many May voters are in Lyne today?) Prepolls can go either way.
Bell might still be a shot though – she closed the gap a bit on the last few booths. Needs a bit under net 30% of the smaller guys and Day. Day has no chance of overtaking her.
So if Day plus the minnows break 50% Bell, 30% Briggs, 20% Vonow then Bell’s in with a shot of overtaking Vonow. I don’t know how much better than him she’ll do, but you’d think 4% was not off the cards, and since Vonow’s likely to be above 46% even after postals you can’t rule her out.
Postals will favour the Libs this time.
Charming.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24304364-5006301,00.html
Must admit that the T-shirt the lib member handing out how to vote cards was wearing made them look like a green candidate.
Has counting stopped or what? Or are all the counters taking a break to watch the WA results.
Anyone know much about Strathalbyn? What sort of demographic is it?
The booth is a full 3.1% of the enrolment.
God The Advertiser is hopeless…
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24303300-5006301,00.html
Saying the seat has been Won, by the Libs! Anything could happen with a 2PP count with Di Bell vs Libs…
Ah, ignore that!
Oz, counting has stopped for the night. The rest will be prepoll, absent, postal and provisional.
Final 2PP for tonight: 48.26 to 51.74.
Assuming final 2CP will indeed by Green vs Liberal, this means that the Libs have won it.
Liberals claim victory in Mayo
* Adelaide
* September 6, 2008 – 9:34PM
The Liberal Party has claimed victory in the by-election for the South Australian federal seat of Mayo.
Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs said while the result was close it was enough for the him to take the seat ahead of Greens candidate Lynton Vonow.
“We always knew it was going to be close but at the end of the day 50% plus one is enough,” Mr Briggs told AAP.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/liberals-claim-victory-in-mayo-20080906-4b3u.html
Result not over yet. Quite a few votes still to count. And also hard to know whether Bell still has a chance. I would expect that Bell would get more votes than Vonow from other independents and FF but whether enough to get ahead of Vonow needs analysis. But if Bell gets ahead she would pick up a pretty high % of Green prefs. Wait and see.
hmmm
Wow strong result by the Greens. The Democrats have confirmed in this election that they really are dead. They lost votes with no Labor candidate in a seat which they used to regularly attract over 10% (sometimes over 20%) of the vote.