Mayo by-election count thread

I will not be providing live blogging for either of tonight’s by-elections, but here’s a space for you all to discuss the figures from Mayo as they come in.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

221 comments on “Mayo by-election count thread”

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  1. 2007 Lib overall 2PP was boosted by 0.6% by prepolls, provisionals, postals and absents. So looks like Greens need to get to something like 50.6 2PP on the night to win this. Currently the Libs are at 50.7. Day has dropped to just over 11 and Bell still has nearly seven points to catch the Greens off those votes plus 9.6 points of shrapnel. Again I doubt that’s all that realistic so *most likely* the Libs will scrape in but it’s not a good result for them.

  2. “Between 1996 and 2007 there were nine by-election, three in Liberal held seats and six in Labor held seat. In its eleven years in office, the Howard government never once nominated a candidate for a by-election in a Labor held electorate.”
    Antony Green

    But of course the ALP are ‘gutless’…

  3. I don’t think this will make any difference with regards to Higgins. Yes the margin in Higgins is lower (I think) but its the kind of seat that doesn’t swing as such and is less attractive for minor party candidates. I’m not saying Labor couldn’t win Higgins in a by-election but its highly unlikely.

    Having said that, strange things often happen in by-elections.

  4. Four booths still to come in on primaries. Two of them very small (not sure what’s taking them so long). One of the others is Stirling West, one of the Greenest booths in the state, although not so good for Labor so may not apply this time.

  5. Malcolm King said this about the Murray;

    Unless someone is shot and the dams demolished, the greedy people will not release water. It will have to be compulsory acquisition.

    I think it’s safe to assume his preferences won’t end up with Briggs. 😀

  6. Waiting for 2CPs from:

    Cherry Gardens
    Goolwa Central
    Gumeracha (both)
    Stirling West

    Anyone offer comments on these places?

  7. Final Primaries in:

    VONOW, Lynton The Greens 14,188 22.57 +11.37
    BARONS, Rachael Conservatives for Climate and Environment 579 0.92 -0.33
    SPRAGG, Bill Independent 1,357 2.16 +2.16
    KEIZER, Mathew One Nation 410 0.65 +0.65
    BREWERTON, Mary Independent 1,507 2.40 +2.40
    CASTRIQUE, Andrew Australian Democrats 773 1.23 -0.29
    BRIGGS, Jamie Liberal 25,252 40.17 -10.22
    KING, Malcolm Ronald Independent 164 0.26 +0.26
    DAY, Bob Family First Party 7,024 11.17 +7.07
    McCABE, David D.L.P. – Democratic Labor Party 1,117 1.78 +1.78
    BELL, Di Independent 10,490 16.69 +16.69

  8. Gumeracha in completely.

    I don’t know how The Oz are projecting 55% TPP for Briggs – unless they’ve got different projection models to the AEC…

  9. First prefs now returned for all booths

    Lib 40.17
    Green 22.57
    Bell 16.69
    Day 11.17
    rest 9.4

    Bell has a bit over 20 points of Day+rest to bridge almost six points to the Greens to win the seat. Greens can’t really do it from here barring something bizarre on postals (51.9:48.1 2PP, six booths to go.)

  10. Strathalbyn still not in – looks like a win for the Libs (unless Bell sneaks in front of the Greens on the actual preference count)…

  11. Given that Greens normally do very badly on postals this is going to be tough. We do well on absentees, but there will be trivial numbers of those (how many May voters are in Lyne today?) Prepolls can go either way.

    Bell might still be a shot though – she closed the gap a bit on the last few booths. Needs a bit under net 30% of the smaller guys and Day. Day has no chance of overtaking her.

    So if Day plus the minnows break 50% Bell, 30% Briggs, 20% Vonow then Bell’s in with a shot of overtaking Vonow. I don’t know how much better than him she’ll do, but you’d think 4% was not off the cards, and since Vonow’s likely to be above 46% even after postals you can’t rule her out.

  12. Charming.

    Plenty of staunch Liberal voters saw no reason to change, but with preferences likely to play a crucial role in the final outcome the Liberal Party used hardball tactics to grab second preference support.

    Several voters objected to a green pamphlet outlining Jamie Briggs’ environmental credentials which they claimed may imply he was in fact a Green.

    Others were appalled by a Liberal flyer reading: “If you are voting for Family First, please ensure you give your 2nd preference to Jamie Briggs, Liberal.”,22606,24304364-5006301,00.html

  13. Ah, ignore that!

    Oz, counting has stopped for the night. The rest will be prepoll, absent, postal and provisional.

    Final 2PP for tonight: 48.26 to 51.74.

    Assuming final 2CP will indeed by Green vs Liberal, this means that the Libs have won it.

  14. Liberals claim victory in Mayo

    * Adelaide
    * September 6, 2008 – 9:34PM

    The Liberal Party has claimed victory in the by-election for the South Australian federal seat of Mayo.

    Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs said while the result was close it was enough for the him to take the seat ahead of Greens candidate Lynton Vonow.

    “We always knew it was going to be close but at the end of the day 50% plus one is enough,” Mr Briggs told AAP.

  15. Result not over yet. Quite a few votes still to count. And also hard to know whether Bell still has a chance. I would expect that Bell would get more votes than Vonow from other independents and FF but whether enough to get ahead of Vonow needs analysis. But if Bell gets ahead she would pick up a pretty high % of Green prefs. Wait and see.

  16. Wow strong result by the Greens. The Democrats have confirmed in this election that they really are dead. They lost votes with no Labor candidate in a seat which they used to regularly attract over 10% (sometimes over 20%) of the vote.

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