Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Mayo by-election count thread
I will not be providing live blogging for either of tonight’s by-elections, but here’s a space for you all to discuss the figures from Mayo as they come in.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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Down with the Tories, down, down, down!!! A swing against the Libs of 10% is nothing for them to gloat about, even if they win.
The other possibilty is that Day overtakes Bell, then Bell’s prefs push Day ahead of The Greens.
Then, amazingly, Greens prefs push Day over the line with about 15% primaries.
It’s not impossible. Who are the other independents preferencing?
A FF Lower House MP, dear GOD!
Diana
Reckon the press will also write this one up as a message to labor.
It doesn’t look all that likely to me that Di Bell will run second in this race. Its Liberal v Green in all reality.
glen
very witty
Briggs on 53.98 2PP WHOOOOOOO!
The TPP figures are for a lot less than the raw count.
8.8% vote for candidates other than Vontow, Briggs, Bell and Day.
Added to Day’s 12% i could easily imagine Bell overtaking the Greens.
But who knows. This is wide open.
You’d imagine the greens should stay 2nd after day and bell are preferenced out. Day would have most going to the libs, then a few more to bell than the greens you would think. That would not be enough for bell to overtake vonow
Briggs doing better now – primary up over 41% and TPP at 53.98%…
Rod @ 54
Undoubtedly!!
Sceptic – can’t see that happening. Day could overtake Bell, but I’m pretty sure Vonow will do well on Bell’s preferences against Day, so I can’t see him getting into position for Vonow’s preferences to matter.
It’s Briggs or Bell, with Vonow and outside chance at this stage I’d say.
BRIGGS ON 54.48!!!!!!! 2PP
The Liberals are winning on Bob Day’s preferences, oh the irony…
what would be really funny, if the greens win on the provisional count, that the media write it up as a media win, but we find that when the full count is done, that it’s actually Bell or Day that wins it.
That would be hilarious
Do we have any idea of the booths currently in and how they normally trend (more Green, more conservative)?
Diana,
maybe they wil point to the Democratic Labor Party’s poor vote as a message to rudd
If the Liberals end up with something like a 10% swing against them, Brendan Nelson may as well retire to the lovely Adelaide Hills and enjoy the sunshine and a glass of sauvignon blanc.
I wonder if William and Antony know what they’re missing – WA hasn’t even shut maybe someone should give them a wake-up call?
Briggs is doing better now – he’s up to 54% TPP without any of the Victor Habour booths having reported (primaries or otherwise)…
AKP ‘the media write it up as a media win’. Freudian or Gramscian slip?
Hmm. The booths left to come in are a motley collection of conservative booths (on an epic scale like one in Victor Harbor, the SH Teams, etc), and some big anti-Lib booths like Aldgate.
Utterly unilluminating.
Anyone know whether we’re hearing from Lib heartland yet? I’m looking at the booths, and in my limited knowledge am guessing that Brigg’s vote will increase when Goolwa starts reporting…
briggs 51.81
greens 48.19
Josh, you pre-empted my question!
51.81/48.19.
At the very least it’s a poor showing for the Liberal Party at this stage.
51.8 v 48.2
Exciting, innit?
And just to prove that progressives can also jump to conclusions on incomplete data sets:
Greens at 48.19 on 2pp!!1!
TPP – Libs 51.8%, Greens 48.2%.
The minor 9% of the vote will be crucial. The result depends on who is excluded first.
And yep it is exciting. Even if nothing comes of it in the end, this is great fun.
Have another check of the latest results: 21.35% counted:
Briggs down to 40% primary …. 2PP 51.8 to 48.2
Might I remind you that this is on less than 10% of the 2PP vote counted. Am I correct in assuming that these smaller booths are more rural and less fertile ground for the Greens?
Make that 48.4.
i meant a greens win, but i imainge the media would write it up as a win for them anyway 😉
Libs down to 51.62% 2PP
I don’t realistically think Day would close the (currently) five-point gap to Bell off a little over nine points of shrapnel with a Green and Lib still in the race – indeed he’d be unlikely to get five points for himself out of that. So if things stay as they are then Day will be fourth.
2PP now 51.6/48.4 Lib/GRN.
Briggs will win .. but it’s fun pretending he might not 🙂
51.81 – 48.19
Too close to call.
A very nice entree
we are heading for boilover territory 🙂
Who is the DLP preferencing this time? And I’m assuming Mary Brewerton will be preferencing the Greens over FF and Di Bell this time…
Labor did well to sit this one out, it made it a much closer affair than it would have been. Now if only the Greens had decided to sit out as well, maybe that would have been the way to get an Indy in instead of a Lib.
I normally hate the Greens but tonight I find myself cheering them on!!
Primary Swings are based on booths IN so far, while 2PP have to use raw vote. At 2007 election, Downer got 51.1% Primary; if current swings hold up, Libs could be down to less than 40% primary. That could DEFINITELY be a boilover.
In all honesty, if Vonow is to win, I would have thought that the combined Di Bell + Lynton Vonow primaries would have to be at least around the same as Jamie Briggs -and they aren’t a million miles off that.
Democrats only polling 1.22% primary atm. Given that it’s only been less than 10 years since they almost tossed Downer out of this seat, it’s another sobering night for those Democrats out there…
Tomorrow’s headlines.
The Liberal Party finally win a State election! Greens claim Liberal heartland while another Nat bites the dust!
Vic H East is apparently in the 2PP count, which is surprising – from my memory of my cursory survey of last year’s results, it was the most conservative of the 3 booths there – I would have expected it to affect the result more.
If that is the case, and the other two booths are less conservative…
But no. Can’t let hope get best. Briggs will take it.
(but what if he doesn’t?? :D)
At least the Libs are polling a 2PP of over 50%, in the former Nats leaders seat of Lyne the best Drew can manage is 26% LOL!
Both Major parties have screw up over the years and come back. Yet why do people give up on the Democrats?
Down with the Tories, down, down, down!!! A swing against the Libs of 10% is nothing for them to gloat about, even if they win.
The other possibilty is that Day overtakes Bell, then Bell’s prefs push Day ahead of The Greens.
Then, amazingly, Greens prefs push Day over the line with about 15% primaries.
It’s not impossible. Who are the other independents preferencing?
A FF Lower House MP, dear GOD!
Diana
Reckon the press will also write this one up as a message to labor.
It doesn’t look all that likely to me that Di Bell will run second in this race. Its Liberal v Green in all reality.
glen
very witty
Briggs on 53.98 2PP WHOOOOOOO!
The TPP figures are for a lot less than the raw count.
8.8% vote for candidates other than Vontow, Briggs, Bell and Day.
Added to Day’s 12% i could easily imagine Bell overtaking the Greens.
But who knows. This is wide open.
You’d imagine the greens should stay 2nd after day and bell are preferenced out. Day would have most going to the libs, then a few more to bell than the greens you would think. That would not be enough for bell to overtake vonow
Briggs doing better now – primary up over 41% and TPP at 53.98%…
Rod @ 54
Undoubtedly!!
Sceptic – can’t see that happening. Day could overtake Bell, but I’m pretty sure Vonow will do well on Bell’s preferences against Day, so I can’t see him getting into position for Vonow’s preferences to matter.
It’s Briggs or Bell, with Vonow and outside chance at this stage I’d say.
BRIGGS ON 54.48!!!!!!! 2PP
The Liberals are winning on Bob Day’s preferences, oh the irony…
what would be really funny, if the greens win on the provisional count, that the media write it up as a media win, but we find that when the full count is done, that it’s actually Bell or Day that wins it.
That would be hilarious
Do we have any idea of the booths currently in and how they normally trend (more Green, more conservative)?
Diana,
maybe they wil point to the Democratic Labor Party’s poor vote as a message to rudd
If the Liberals end up with something like a 10% swing against them, Brendan Nelson may as well retire to the lovely Adelaide Hills and enjoy the sunshine and a glass of sauvignon blanc.
I wonder if William and Antony know what they’re missing – WA hasn’t even shut maybe someone should give them a wake-up call?
Briggs is doing better now – he’s up to 54% TPP without any of the Victor Habour booths having reported (primaries or otherwise)…
AKP ‘the media write it up as a media win’. Freudian or Gramscian slip?
Hmm. The booths left to come in are a motley collection of conservative booths (on an epic scale like one in Victor Harbor, the SH Teams, etc), and some big anti-Lib booths like Aldgate.
Utterly unilluminating.
Anyone know whether we’re hearing from Lib heartland yet? I’m looking at the booths, and in my limited knowledge am guessing that Brigg’s vote will increase when Goolwa starts reporting…
briggs 51.81
greens 48.19
Josh, you pre-empted my question!
51.81/48.19.
At the very least it’s a poor showing for the Liberal Party at this stage.
51.8 v 48.2
Exciting, innit?
And just to prove that progressives can also jump to conclusions on incomplete data sets:
Greens at 48.19 on 2pp!!1!
TPP – Libs 51.8%, Greens 48.2%.
The minor 9% of the vote will be crucial. The result depends on who is excluded first.
And yep it is exciting. Even if nothing comes of it in the end, this is great fun.
Have another check of the latest results: 21.35% counted:
Briggs down to 40% primary …. 2PP 51.8 to 48.2
Might I remind you that this is on less than 10% of the 2PP vote counted. Am I correct in assuming that these smaller booths are more rural and less fertile ground for the Greens?
Make that 48.4.
i meant a greens win, but i imainge the media would write it up as a win for them anyway 😉
Libs down to 51.62% 2PP
I don’t realistically think Day would close the (currently) five-point gap to Bell off a little over nine points of shrapnel with a Green and Lib still in the race – indeed he’d be unlikely to get five points for himself out of that. So if things stay as they are then Day will be fourth.
2PP now 51.6/48.4 Lib/GRN.
Briggs will win .. but it’s fun pretending he might not 🙂
51.81 – 48.19
Too close to call.
A very nice entree
we are heading for boilover territory 🙂
Who is the DLP preferencing this time? And I’m assuming Mary Brewerton will be preferencing the Greens over FF and Di Bell this time…
Labor did well to sit this one out, it made it a much closer affair than it would have been. Now if only the Greens had decided to sit out as well, maybe that would have been the way to get an Indy in instead of a Lib.
I normally hate the Greens but tonight I find myself cheering them on!!
Primary Swings are based on booths IN so far, while 2PP have to use raw vote. At 2007 election, Downer got 51.1% Primary; if current swings hold up, Libs could be down to less than 40% primary. That could DEFINITELY be a boilover.
In all honesty, if Vonow is to win, I would have thought that the combined Di Bell + Lynton Vonow primaries would have to be at least around the same as Jamie Briggs -and they aren’t a million miles off that.
Democrats only polling 1.22% primary atm. Given that it’s only been less than 10 years since they almost tossed Downer out of this seat, it’s another sobering night for those Democrats out there…
Tomorrow’s headlines.
The Liberal Party finally win a State election! Greens claim Liberal heartland while another Nat bites the dust!
Vic H East is apparently in the 2PP count, which is surprising – from my memory of my cursory survey of last year’s results, it was the most conservative of the 3 booths there – I would have expected it to affect the result more.
If that is the case, and the other two booths are less conservative…
But no. Can’t let hope get best. Briggs will take it.
(but what if he doesn’t?? :D)
At least the Libs are polling a 2PP of over 50%, in the former Nats leaders seat of Lyne the best Drew can manage is 26% LOL!
Both Major parties have screw up over the years and come back. Yet why do people give up on the Democrats?