The September 6 by-elections for Mayo and Lyne initially loomed as fizzers, with Labor showing no inclination post-Gippsland to test the waters in unwinnable seats. They have instead respectively emerged as mildly and enormously interesting, thanks to the entry of non-major party players. In Mayo, housing tycoon Bob Day will bring a cashed-up campaign to bear against the Liberals as the candidate of Family First, having failed to win Liberal preselection for Mayo after unsuccessfully contesting Makin last year. Day would nonetheless have to be considered a long shot against Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs, but it’s a very different story in Lyne where independent state MP Rob Oakeshott has been rated the “clear favourite” by Antony Green. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Nationals polling puts his approval rating in the electorate at over 70 per cent, and says the party is concerned Labor will “direct resources to Mr Oakeshott’s campaign”.
Lyne covers a 100 kilometre stretch of coastline up to 400 kilometres north of Sydney, the main population centres being Port Macquarie (home to 33 per cent of the electorate’s population) and Taree (14 per cent). Smaller centres include Old Bar, Lake Cathie and Harrington on the coast, and Wauchope and Wingham further inland. The National/Country Party has held the seat since its creation in 1949. The electorate covers the entirety of Oakeshott’s state seat of Port Macquarie, which provides Lyne with 55 per cent of its voters. Oakeshott won Port Macquarie as the Nationals candidate at a 1996 by-election ahead of independent John Barrett, who had come within 233 votes of defeating Mark Vaile as Liberal candidate for Lyne in 1993. He was promoted to the front bench after the 1999 election, taking the sport and recreation, fisheries and ports portfolios. In March 2002 he quit the party, claiming its local branches were controlled by property developers and questioning whether the party was still relevant to an electorate transformed by tourism and demographic change. The Nationals campaigned aggressively against him during the 2003 campaign, in particular over his support for drug law reform, but he was overwhelmingly re-elected with 69.7 per cent of the primary vote. This fell slightly to 67.1 per cent at the March 2007 election, his two-candidate preferred margin down from 32.8 per cent to a still formidable 28.2 per cent.
The Nationals candidate is Rob Drew, who was mayor of Port Macquarie until the council was sacked by the state government in February. The Macleay Argus reports he won a preselection vote ahead of Taree solicitor Quentin Schneider by 48 votes to 15. State party leader Andrew Stoner was reportedly urged by “senior colleagues” to throw his hat into the ring, but perhaps sensibly decided to stay put. The prospect of an Oakeshott candidacy was a cloud on the horizon from the time of Vaile’s departure, with Oakeshott earlier threatening to run against Vaile at the 2004 election. There has also been intermittent speculation over the years that he might be enlisted by the Liberals, although this might never have been more than wishful thinking by the party. Most recently, powerbrokers including Senator Bill Heffernan approached him to contest the by-election as the Liberal candidate, hoping that his success might push the Coalition further along the road to a merger. The party has instead opted to sit out the contest, aware that its presence would only increase the already high likelihood of an Oakeshott victory.
The other thing to be noted is that win, lose or draw, Oakeshott’s candidacy will initiate a state by-election for Port Macquarie – though that is a subject for another post. While it would be open to Oakeshott to re-contest Port Macquarie, owing to what Imre Salusinszky calls “a quirk in NSW electoral law”, Oakeshott has declared that such a move would be “unfair to the community”.
Don’t forget your Greens.
Lyne:- http://greens.org.au/lyne
Mayo:- http://sa.greens.org.au/Mayo/
I’ll change my name from oakeshott country to avoid confusion. I also admit to being a member of the ALP in Port Macquarie
Great summary William. I am still predicting Oakeshott to get a 55 -60% primary but there are a number of points that may become significant in the next few weeks.
1. The effect of the dismissal of Mayor Drew’s council. This followed an inquiry into the Glasshouse (findings are on the net). Under Drew’s administration a project to build a simple 500 seat auditorium turned into a convention centre with all possible bells and whistles that could eventually cost the ratepayers $80M. The Nationals have portrayed this as a conspiracy by Iemma and Oakeshott to destroy a Nationals’ bastion of power.
Somehow I don’t think this interpretation is playing well in Wauchope. There was no great public outpourings of grief at council’s demise despite several attempts to stir it up. My reading is that most residents, even those who support the Glasshouse, are still shocked at the council’s financial inepptitude. Drew’s pre-selection is more an indicator that there was no one else rather than an attempt to play on public sympathy for his dismissal. His pre-selection can only benefit Oakeshott
2. The tone of the campaign. I have no doubt that Oakeshott’s vote increased in the 2003 election when the Nationals started to throw dirt depicting him as a drug supporting dilletente. The early indications are that this will be a dirty campaign and that can only help Oakeshott’s vote
3. “Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Nationals polling puts his approval rating in the electorate at over 70 per cent, and says the party is concerned Labor will “direct resources to Mr Oakeshott’s campaign”.” I agree with the polling but while many ALP members will enjoy handing out his HTVs what financial support can we give him – the proceeds from the cake stall in Horton St? This is Nationals disinformation to attempt to make Oakeshott as a Labor tool. He will not need or want ALP financial support
“This is Nationals disinformation to attempt to make Oakeshott as a Labor tool.”
I agree. A convenient rebuttal is a mention of the none-too-subtle attempts by the Libs to woo Oakeshott to their side.
(An ALP member in Port Macquarie?! You must be pretty lonely. Most of the people I met up there were screaming Libs. But despite that, Port is still a very nice place.)
Brian Deegan, the fomer magistrate who lost a son in the Bali bomb horror, announced today he would not be contesting the Mayo by-election. In the 2004 general election, Deegan went after Alexander Downer in Mayo and scored a primary vote of 15.15 percent (to Labor’s 16.49 percent). After preferences, Deegan finished with 38.19 percent.
The washup over the Lyne and now Port Macquarie by-elections is the now selfish response of the Liberals who want to contest at least one of these seats. When Peta Seaton retired from state politics in the lead up to the 2007 NSW election Pru Coward was quickly parasuted into her seat although pru was not the sitting member for Goulbourn and the Nationals had every right to field a candidate it chose not to. The Liberals should return the favour in relation to these two seats as they lie in Nationals heartland.
Anew breed is emerging out of Lyne.There numbers are growing slowly but surely.Labor supporters with green tinges and very strong independent streaks.
Paul, neither the state seat of Port Macquarie nor the fed seat of Lyne (which has Port Macquarie as its largest pop centre) really qualify as “Nationals heartland” any more. The times they are a changin’. These seats aren’t hereditary fiefdoms, and may the best man (or woman) win. Sea-changers (especially retirees) have turned Port Macquarie (both the seat and the city) into a Liberal-leaning enclave. The Libs can’t be blamed if the demographics have changed, and this is no more true than for the Mid-North Coast.
One by one, the Libs and Labor are prising the Nats off the eastern seaboard, as the coastline becomes increasingly urbanized. Lyne is/was one of their last toeholds.
Mr B… The Antony Green link goes to “The world today”
Yes, the World Today report contains the quote from him that I’m using.
Paul Nash @5, you forget the Southern Highlands background.
When John Fahey moved to Federal politics in 1996, the Nationals contested his seat of Southern Highlands. They spent a fortune on the campaign and finished just ahead of the Liberals on the primary vote, but Labor finished third and directed preferences to the Liberals.
What the Liberals never forgave was that the funds spent in Southern Highlands trying to defeat a Liberal were not spent in the Clarence by-election held the same day. The Nationals lost that seat to Labor, increasing the Carr government’s majority from 1 to 3. The Liberals were understandably furious.
So in 1997, when Wendy Machin retired, the Liberals were determined to run in the Port Macquarie by-election. In the end the only reason they didn’t was because Liberal leader Peter Collins put his leadership on the line to prevent it happening. Oakeshott was elected without a Liberal opponent.
The only way the Liberals won’t run in Port Macquarie is if Barry O’Farrell does something similar. The Liberal Party organisation always wants to run in urban seats like Port Macquarie. Go back and look at the Port Macquarie Federal figures in both 1984 and 1993, the last occassions in which there was a three-cornered contest. The Liberals oupolled the Nationals in Port Macquarie.
I’m also unsure what Imre means by a ‘quirk of NSW electoral law’ saying that Oakeshott could re-contest his own seat at a by-election. All that needs to happen is that the issue of writs for Port Macquarie be delayed until after the Lyne by-election, a perfectly acceptable delay. That can happen in any state as there are no rules on when writs for a by-election must be issued.
Back in 1974, the sitting MP for Goulburn Ron Brewer resigned to contest the Federal election. The Askin government didn’t issue the writ until after Brewer’s defeat, at which time he was able to contest the vacancy in his old seat.
The real story is what would have happened had Andrew Stoner agreed to contest Lyne as the National candidate. The NSW Labor government would have made sure writs for Oxley and Port Macquarie by-elections were issued BEFORE the Lyne poll to ensure Stoner couldn’t get back into state parliament if he lost Lyne.
Just a minor quibble Billbowe – Wauchope and Wingham arent on the Pacific highway. One is on the obviously named “Wingham Road” that comes out of Taree, Wauchope is on the Oxley Highway that joins up with the Pacific highway rather than actually being on the Pacific Highway itself.
Possum, love your work over at your place – very funny.
Thanks Possum, I’d managed to get that past OC a.k.a. MidNorthCoast. Now corrected.
What do you mean Jayne?
This isn’t an attempt at disinformation is it?
Oakeshott is not a) a Labor supporter b) particularly green or c) very strongly independent – he always says he is a conservative who left the Nationals because of the influence of the local white shoes and the increased influence he could have as an independent. The Liberals keep seeing him as one of his own. Any local Labor support of him is purely on a basis of ‘your enemy’s enemy is my friend.’
Interestingly Truss in the World Today has gone with the Labor connection – if that is the best the Nationals can do they are in for a very big beating.
BTW Taree and Port Macquarie are not technically on the Pacific Hwy either having been bypassed some years ago!
Judge back up at comment 1.
The Greens in the Lyne election might get to achieve something the Nationals wont.
Win a booth – Elands!
Aww midnorthcoast, now look what you’ve gone and done!
With William furiously re-writing away, do you think it would be a good time to state that you can throw rocks from Taree and hit the highway (OK, Cundletown – pretty close) and that Port Macquarie these days has basically expanded out to the highway itself?
Nah – we’ll wait for him to rewrite some more!
Antony,
The Southern Highlands saga goes back to 1988 when the seat of Southern Highlands was created to replace Goulburn. The National Party MP for Goulburn (Robert Webster) was forced to vacate the seat so that the Liberal member for Camden (John Fahey) could move to a safer seat. Many people in the Nationals were annoyed about giving up one of their seats for an MP who couldn’t be bothered campaigning in a marginal seat.
(It’s ironic that Robert Webster later became a member of the Liberal Party and until a few months ago was their NSW State Treasurer).
Poss, imagine if they had workers at the other booths.
57.8% primary vote(2007 Fed) that will rock the foundations of the 2PP club.
LOL
Judge – if they had workers at *some* of the other booths in the electorate, election night coverage would take a back seat to clips of rampaging cow cockies wielding blood soaked 4 by 2’s .
So saying, the Comboyne booth seem to be generally peaceful considering. I’m sure it has nothing to do with a large chunk of the Greens out that way being roughnut dykes built like Brahma bulls.
Actually, my post ceased to mention the Pacific Highway after the PC-inspired rewrite.
Excellent inside info. on Lyne Poss.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/08/06/all-you-need-to-know-about-the-lyne-by-election/
Extra banana out tonight.
midnorthcoast,I can assure you I am no National stooge.Just saying it as I see it. After living in the area for over 50 years I have seen things slowly change.Sorry if you have mistaken my comment.
Jayne – with a decent local member that could stick the third rate spiv developers (like what happened at Harrington, Old Bar and the outskirts of Port)) back in their box, could help build a financial coalition to permanently fix the river mouths at the Manning and could assist with the development of an upstairs economy in Port and Taree (no small ask – only world peace as the chaser!) – Lyne would change very very quickly.
@18
Not quite right, Barry.
The redistribution for the 1988 NSW election increased the Legislative Assembly from 99 seats to 109. Southern Highlands was one of the ten new seats created. John Fahey, the sitting member for Camden, had always had his home base at Bowral, which was included in Southern Highlands rather than Camden following the redistribution. (Camden, on the other hand, became more favourable for Labor as a result of the redistribution adding Campbelltown suburbs to it.) Fahey ran for Southern Highlands and won: this had no effect on Robert Webster, who was re-elected as the National Party member for Goulburn, which had not been ‘replaced’ by Southern Highlands.
The thing was that the Coalition had made an issue of opposing the expansion of the Legislative Assembly and went on to honour their election promise to reverse it. So another redistribution came into effect for the 1991 election, with the Legislative Assembly reduced from 109 to 99 seats and Goulburn one of the ten seats abolished. The town of Goulburn was instead incorporated into the seat of Southern Highlands (and in a knock-on effect Camden’s boundaries shifted southwards again, although not as far as Bowral, making it more favourable to the Liberals again) and Webster ended up running for the Legislative Council instead of opposing Fahey.
Poss,I like to think it can all happen.
It will be interesting to see if Jamie Harrison will now run, as he stated he would a few weeks ago. He was a local councillor who opposed the Glasshouse. He got a surprising 4% at the 2007 federal election. The spivs accussed him of being an Oakeshott glove puppet, if he is then I presume he will now withdraw from the contest.
Of course he is much more famous for losing his trousers at the local Irish tavern
http://blogs.smh.com.au/sit/archives/2007/02/embarrassments_bags_of_trouble.html
Just looking at the hard core of hard corest cow cocky vote in Lyne – those Man of the Land types that have National Party haemoglobin running through their veins, in the Hannam Vale, Johns River and King Creek booths the voters delivered the Nats primary votes of 47.1%, 56.8% and 61% respectively at the last Fed election. During the last State election, they voted Oakeshott 54.7%, 52.3% and 53.8% respectively on the primary vote.
Anyone know what the largest TPP margin for a seat in modern Federal history is?
Oakeshott must be approaching close to 75-77% TPP.
re: J-D @#25
J-D,
You are indeed correct about the redistributions and the election at which Robert Webster was forced out. Thank you for correcting me!
That aside, people in the National Party were annoyed that Robert Webster was forced to give up his seat so John Fahey could stay in Southern Highlands instead of returning to his original seat of Camden. Hence the reason the Nationals contested that 1996 by-election in Southern Highlands.
BTW, when was the number of members reduced to the current 93?
Barry and J-D. You’re referring to the 1991 election, not 1988. And one of the legacies of 1988 was that the Nationals had a poor choice of candidate in Burrinjuck which allowed the Liberals to win the seat. So when Webster resigned, his seat was divided between two Liberal seats, where if the Nationals had won Burrinjuck in 1988, the party could have resolved it internally.
And I could toss in Wal Fife and John Sharp in Hume at the 1993 election as well.
But the point the Liberals made in 1996, about the Nationals spending money trying to beat the Liberals and in the process losing a seat to Labor on the North Coast still stands. It was why the Liberals (disastrously) ran in Clarence at the 1999 state election, and the bitterness between the two parties cost the Coalition Clarence. There hasn”t been a three cornered contest at a state election since, but the Liberal Party organisation is very keen to run in any Port Macquarie by-election, unless the nationals have a stunning candidate.
Barry, the Legislative Assembly was reduced to 93 at the 1999 election.
Antony, from the Nationals’ point of view John Sharp knocking off Wal Fife at the 1993 election was payback for Fife knocking off Stephen Lusher at the 1984 election.
Is there any word on Oakeshott nominating a “successor” (i.e, another rural independent) to stand in Port Macquarie?
Or is that seat going to be handed on a silver platter to the NSW Coalition?
re #30
Antony,
Thank you for your reply.
I stand corrected about 1991 instead of 1988 (J-D also pointed out my error).
The Nats are developing a habit of choosing poor candidates (or may be it is harder to get a poor candidate elected in a country area).
The Nats candidate in the 1996 Clarence by-election was admitted to hospital with a stress related illness during the campaign. I suspect that if the Libs had nominated a candidate in this by-election, they may have outpolled the Nats.
The bitterness between Libs and Nats seems to go on tit-for-tat.
It is my understanding that the Libs were annoyed about Albury in 1978 & Gosford in 1984.
J-D @#31
Thank you for that!
the judge @ 22
Thanks for the link. Couldn’t agree more with the map “all you need to know about the lyne by-election”
There’s an interesting Obama poll write-up over at Daily Kos.
GB
#36
August 6th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
“There’s an interesting Obama poll write-up over at Daily Kos.”
What has that got to do with th Lyne By-electon Most Aussies interest in US’s 2008 curent Presidential Electon is how it affects our ‘oz’ Mcain is more ‘free trade’ (good for ‘oz’) and , Obama is more ‘protectionist’ (this is very bad for our ‘oz’ Exporters especialy our Farmers & our ‘oz’ manufactured products) Both McCain & Obama ar financed by big Oily companys (if one checks there donations & lobbyists lists) , so both very unhealthy on Consevation as both want extended off shore oil drilling (so a massive minus for our ‘oz’ World based consevation policys eg on marine life & ecologies Both McCain & Obama do not suport ratifying Kyoto and hav never even said th words ever from there oily mouths (so both very negative for ‘oz’ support of Kyoto and CC) Both McCain & Obama could not ever get appointed to any ‘oz’ Govt Statutory Board or even to Fed or State Govt position (as both hav numerous very unsavourary associations in there hoistorys (so very bad for responsable credible
‘governanse’ , so a negative for ‘oz’ in expecting a fair or honest go re US vs ‘oz’ economic & other relations
So stay with our Rob Oakeshott in Lyne , beter than either yank for ‘oz’
Th most signifant politcal point about Lyne’s by electon I think has actualy been made by WILLIAM’s comments editorial here : “In March 2002 he quit the party, claiming its local branches were controlled by property developers and questioning whether the party was still relevant to an electorate transformed by tourism and demographic change. ”
Even as we speak th Nats Party have not twigged to there flwaed overall strategic politcal and branding policys & planning Hell here is a seat they’ve held Federaly continously for 60 years no less, and ar on a ‘bad nose and noise’ with voters One would hav thought Nats Party (and indeed a Liberal Federal Executive ) would see politcal reality or at least objectively queston why IF they did so , it might help thems understand part of there almost irrelevence Federaly at 43% to 45% 2PP in all recent polling trends in 2008 For mine well may they saviour there ‘purity’ of yesterdays philosophies , policys outcomes & priorities , rather than voters ‘generatonal agenda patterns & outcomes expectatons , and so I honestly hope National Party’s Lyne electon defeat is not so so devastating , that even they will twig
Possum @ 28 I suspect the highest TPP margin would be the fed seat that runs to the west of Mildura, but I don’t really know for sure and I don’t even know the name of the electorate
There isn’t an electorate that runs to the west of Mildura. Mildura is on the northern border of the electorate of Mallee (called Wimmera before 1949).
The safest seat on TPP margin atm is Batman, sitting on a 26.0% margin for Labor. I can’t find any seat from 1993 onwards that beats that margin.
So Oakeshott, if he gets 77% TPP, as Possum suggests he might, will be winning by the biggest margin of any federal MP in this century (or millenium)! 🙂
Forrest has had some big wins in Mallee including 74.75% in 04, but I think the highest recent TPP margin is Batman from 07 when ferguson won 75.95%
Morris Iemma scored 83.97% 2PP in the state seat of Lakemba in 2007.
JD @ 39 Thank you, you’re right. What I do remember is some travel out that way and feeling uncomfortable in the social atmosphere. There was a fair bit of scorn and a fair bit of barely suppressed anger at the city mob. Post modernism, relativism, complexity and shades of grey did not feature very much in the discourses reported in the local MSM. I discussed the ‘feel’ of the place with some locals who pointed out to me at the time that the seat had the highest margin in the country. The interesting thing is that Mildura is a largish regional city and there is not enough of a labour vote there to give the nats (I believe?) any sort of run for their money. I think this has been a fairly long term sort of thing and if the nats do hold it, it might be the last nat seat to hold out.
The vibes were getting some extra juice from the bloody drought (quite a normal drought really, and not as bad as the Federation Drought, they hastened to explain). That the Murray had virtually stopped flowing and that what was left in it was getting increasingly salty was also causing some anxiety. Not happy chappies.
The last time the Liberals ran a candidate in Mallee was in 1993 (when the then incumbent Nationals member retired), and the Nationals candidate (still the incumbent member now) beat the Liberal by only 50.5% to 49.5% (primaries Nationals 37.7%, Liberals 32.5%, Labor 26.%).
Will Mo Ie even be running as an endorsed ALP candidate next time around?
Hey Ron, stop harshing my mellow. I’m just as Aussie as the next bloke. This site’s all about poll tragics, and I’m interested about what’s happening in the U.S. – maybe not on the same gut level as I would be for an Australian general election, but still interested.
Being interested in what’s going on in other countries doesn’t mean you’re any less interested in what’s happening in this country – though I confess to finding bi-elections in safe conservative seats a little ho-hum.
And let’s stop this nonsense that there’s no difference between someone on the centre-left and a candidate on the far-right – did the Howard years teach people nothing?
One of the more interesting things about polls is comparing attitudes in this country with those overseas. For instance, I find it interesting that Australian women tend to be more politically conservative than women in the U.S. Doesn’t everyone else find that interesting? Would anyone what to take a stab at the reasons why?
Bi-elections?….sorry.
There are two of them…
GB
#46
“And let’s stop this nonsense that there’s no difference between someone on the centre-left and a candidate on the far-right – did the Howard years teach people nothing? ”
What they taught is to think , and listen to what a politican say & what is policys state So GB , don’t let facts get in th way of partisan support IF a phony ‘left’ candidate supports ‘right’ views & policys , he is still a phony , irrespective of what tag he claims to wear Of course if you wish to dispute th policy specifics I outlined to demonstate that point (which ar on th public record ) , I await your coment
I am a partisan – and proud of it!
No problems with holding a politicians feet to the fire – in fact, it’s essential. But there were a lot of people talking tweedle-dum-tweedle-dee in the US in 2000 and voted for Nader. What did they get? A war in Iraq that simply wouldn’t have happened under a Democratic administration.
The same is true in Australia. I know of Lefties in Australia who voted for Howard in ’96 out of sheer disdain for the Keating government (much of it justified). They were taught a lesson I dare say they’ll never forget.
And if I were an American, I would have supported John Edwards because he was more clear-cut – more Left – when it came to things like universal health care. But there’s something perverse about inististing there’s no difference between centre-Left (Rudd, Obama) and far-Right (Howard, McCain). It’s dangerous nonsense.