Essential Research: 58-42

Essential Research’s latest weekly survey features questions on refugees, climate change and the Olympics, along with the finding that federal Labor holds a 58-42 lead over the Coalition. Read all about it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

389 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  3. ESJ, it is my judgement that you behave provocatively with greater frequency and intensity than KR. You are entitled to an alternative opinion. I seem to remember the abortion comment came from another person who I then proceeded to ban, for which I received a very great deal of criticism.

  5. Reading LNP supporters on other blogs shows that most are hoping for one thing – the ALP to stuff up the economy. That is it, nothing else. Not policy, quality leadership, visions, change, fixing up problems, just hoping the ALP will make lots of errors.

    I suspect the LNP may also have this tactic at present.

    Good luck with that.

  6. jovial Monk @ 85, i was at the central market today, i bought a HUGE garlic metwurst –about 4 ft {direct from the Barossa} a big piece of jarlsburg, some pickled vegies and roast capsicum in oil along with Italian bread and fresh lettuce, tomatos and cucumber, yum-guess what i’m munching on right now — to be finished off with a bag of salted cashews fresh from the nut stall, food of the gods, mind it’s back to a normal dinner tomorrow night.

  7. Dyno
    It is partly a guessing game projecting into the future but I do think there will always be a right wing rump to which big business seems to be attracted to. I can see many small “l” Libs deserting and going to Labor if they keep hold of the centre ground and do not allow Unions to regain an undue position of influence in the political process. Small business will follow. The stereotype left – right view we have had will pass into history, except for those on the far right or far left. The centre will become a much “broader church”.

    Small business supporting Labor is not the same as them running Labor. Most people are workers and Labor could not desert these voters, especially after having gained the “swinging ones”. If Labor holds to these people it is impossible for them to allow business(big or small) to run the party.

    Lobby groups are a different matter. This is where Business will try to pressure the Government. But philosophically big business will stay with the far right, while small business can fit with the new Labor.

    It leaves some room at the Left. Perhaps one day the Greens may get an economic policy and mature politically and become a force in this area.

    Who knows? We can only project with what we know now and present trends. A Global War, a Global Depression, a exponential worsening of CC or anything we may not have heard of could change the whole picture. Politics is dynamic and I would expect, along with the rate of Global changes in other areas that politics will change a lot faster from now on. The old patterns of political parties will not serve us any longer.

    One thing for sure in a democracy(and we hope we stay that way) parties that will not adapt and therefore no longer serve the needs of the people in a changing world will simply die. No party is sacred, not the Libs, nor Labor for that matter.

  8. 103 William – I agree you did ban the poster. Which I appreciated.

    I think provocation is a question of the type and quality. I have regrettably succumbed to mere adversarialism at times but you know generally I havent attacked the man other than with 2 posters – Kirri R (who I think is a special case) and Socrates a couple of weeks ago for a when did you stop beating your wife line of attack.

    In the other case I think mocking disability and violent language the denizen of the sister site takes the cake.

    Boer War –

    Top policy items: –

    1. Negative Income Tax
    2. Eliminate most tax deductions and have a sole flat rate of tax probably 35%
    3. Up foreign aid to 1% of GDP
    4. No one should be homeless period – not an expensive problem to fix.

  9. Although William,

    I am bemused for a blog on which I have not ever posted I am a regular topic of conversation.

    Such is life I guess.

  10. ESJ @ 108 Thank you. I simply don’t understand what the first one means. I am agnostic on the second one – I don’t really understand the ins and outs of it. I would be happy with 3, but would probably support higher percent, because as a nation we are very wealthy and can afford it. And I agree wholeheartedly with four.

  12. A-C

    “This thread has to be one of the most cringe-worthy ALP wankfests I’ve ever seen”

    what was the least cringe-worthy one?

  13. Negative income tax is the idea that rather than pay pensions or social security you pay everyone the poverty level of income and recoup it through the tax system for those who earn more. In this way you avoid welfare traps were welfare recipients pay high marginal tax rates for getting work AND you avoid a large bureacracy to adminster the welfare system.

  15. Sorry, way OT, but the WA Libs have to be kidding themselves if they think Buswell’s long-overdue resignation gives them a snowball’s at the next State election. The electorate won’t forget that a majority of the remaining Libs voted twice to retain Buswell as Opposition leader, even after his “character flaws” were laid bare. They are indelibly stained by their apalling lack of judgement, and deserve what’s coming to them in the next few months.

  16. ESJ, why not drag up a hoary old chestnut from someone who is probably dead and gone. If it was such a great idea, how come your idols and former Treasurers Howeird and $weets didn’t implement this brilliant if archaic idea you support?

    The last time I heard a version of the Nit being proposed was Pauline Hanson during an election campaign.

  17. A-C

    This thread has to be one of the most cringe-worthy ALP wankfests I’ve ever seen

    Yaaaaawwwwwwwnnn.

    113
    Edward StJohn

    I think that is by far the most sensible thing you have ever said on this blog, and I agree more-or-less completely, especially about the high marginal tax rates for those trying to move from welfare to work, fixing that would easily be the single biggest possible improvement for the long term prospects of that group (though there will always be some who are not able to work in any significant sense).

  21. Doug
    #68

    “Workers will ALWAYS be the main part of Labor’s demographics. I cannot see them vacating this area and loosing the votes. Labor will always deal with business because that is where the nation’s jobs are generated. This “dealing with business” can perhaps be mistaken for Labor becoming the “business party”. You will also find that good unions will always have the well being of business in mind for the same reason – business generates jobs. They will not want to kill “the goose that lays the golden egg”. But they will still persue the interests of their members, sometimes aggressively.
    I do not see a longterm future for The Libs.”

    I agree with all of the above It was th main basis of my difffering view earlier with Dyno It was also th basis of why I previousdly said here that Labor (a workers based Party) philosophicaly is very different from th consevatives/Liberals ( a business/free enterprise based party) and Greens 9started as an environment Party excl WA greens)

    Workers hav been an part integral part of Labor since 1891 Neither th Democrats , th Greens , or th old workers party will take this voter ground ,
    and you obviouly agree as above Therefore Labors fundamentel policys will always be geared that way re medicare , tax equity , hospitals , schools , welfare etc both Liberals , Greens & Democrats ‘wish” in hope otherwise , but this politcal reality will remain globilisation has simply changed th methad & mechanics to achieve Labor objectives

    Future of th Libs , both you and Dyno paint poor futures , whereas I think th Libs rump will stay as is when Labor was out of power for a long time people predicted it would die also , but Partys formed so long ar resiliant you think “many small “l” Libs deserting and going to Labor ” Well whilst having some doubts , you ar correct thats theoreticaly possible without Labor changing a single policy !! , because apart from Parents influence & idealology against Unions they should be voting Labor anyway (th Libs do not look after them & most ar workers That would make labor over 50% on first prefs & unbeatable

    Your scenario is extremely positive for Labor Whilst mine staying where they ar is not quite as good , but makes defeating Labor dificult as th Libs and Greens hav nowhere presently to expand to It hasbeen very obvious that Labor strategists know there is , and hav successdfully put itinto action with Labor holding all 6 States governments nd both Territories governments for 10 years now , so no reason to change what they hav already Federaly Howard was wily , Labor campained poorly and selected poor leaders , but Labor learned for 2007 campaign & it was a replica of there successful State ploys of isolating th other 3 Partys

  23. “i bought a HUGE garlic metwurst –about 4 ft, … to be finished off with a bag of salted cashews”

    Man, that is a big hunger attack.

  28. FINNS

    #45
    “Amigo Ronnie – [Libs win electons over Labor generally by pinching ‘labor type’ suporters , usualy when labor st.ffs th econamy]

    You post fine , Labors st.ff was 75 & 1994/95 where Labor accepted th Reserve’s Bernie Fraser’s advice & made things worse , Amigo 2010 will be no problem for sir Kevin as you indicate
    .

    FINNS
    #44
    “A superior economic manager was their only mantra. If that is gone, zip.
    Let see what is left: CC, Environment, Water, Education, Infra-structure, Health, Reconciliation, Immigration, Defense, National security, Foreign Affairs, Housing, IR – Labor has got these WELL covered.”

    Absolutely amigo

  29. No had dinner thanks Judy,

    We do the same on Sundays, down to the markets, goat cheese, homos, carrot, beetroot and other dips, turkish bread and sausage.

  34. ESJ

    Why am I so naive?

    I asked myself “Where has ESJ come up with such a radical proposal as NIT?”

    Sounded like a Friedman theory. But it’s clearly politically impossible, hence my question above, but I thought you wouldn’t make a suggestion without at least some support in history. Hmmm, I needed a politician with two attributes.

    (1) What politician would ESJ be happy to be associated with despite being on a sure-fire loser?

    (2) What politician would be remotely capable of getting an idea like that up?

    So I looked it up. What a bloody surprise!! Richard M. Nixon. Who else could it have been!!!

  35. “Let see what is left”

    The monarchy, the queen and country, the’ve lost their exclusive hold on the god bit, so that is all that is left.

  36. Jovial

    Wrap them in banana skins and palm leaves, lightly turn on a rottisiere, basting with peanut oil occasionally, can also stuff them with fruit.

  39. Can you have an ALP wankfest with a 4ft garlic metwurst? Perish the thought.

    Meanwhile, I’m interested in the debate here about whether we’ll have a recession or not. I don’t agree with those who can’t believe we’ll have a recession. I think it’s quite possible, but it’s likely to be mild. The definition of a technical recession is just two consecutive quarters of shrinking economy (I shy away from the oxymoron “negative growth”). We could certainly have that, given the way the housing sector has stopped building anything, and signs of reduced consumer spending. But the economy is so strong, and unemployment so low (with labour shortages in many areas) that we could probably cope with a little recession without vast numbers being thrown out of work.

    New Zealand is now in recession. And so is Denmark. More countries will follow. But there’s a difference between an economy shrinking for a few months, and a major recession, where there’s mass unemployment and business collapses.

    As I’ve mentioned previously, there are a few companies here laying off staff, and the slump in resources stocks will have to (at least slightly) slow the growth
    of the mining industry, and delay a few projects.

    More recessions around the world (particularly in the US) would reduce oil demand and bring down fuel prices here and elsewhere, and lower interest rates here would bring down the dollar, and thus boost our exports, and help save a few jobs. So what you’d lose on the swings you’d gain on the roundabouts.

    So I guess I’m saying a mild recession is possible, but Australia would come out of it quite well (and well before the next Federal election).

  40. Eddie, are you aware that the sort of ‘negative income tax’ you are advancing has been operational in some Scandinavian, with ‘old terms’ socialist leanings, governments for some time? I can recall proposing something very similar in the 70’s, to deafening silence. If you go all socialist on us, A.C. will have apoplexy. Would do evil grin, if I knew how to do it.

  41. Jovial Monk

    #131

    “128 ron
    think you will find Keating pleaded on bended knees to Bernie Fraser to drop interest rates”

    You ar 100% correct Jovial Monk , my poor/loose wording Meant to say Keating had to accept Frasers “advice” (no choice) , although Fraser’s claim was govt had let inflation out & untill he saw it all th way back in , he wasn’t going to lower rates
    And Labor got hit by Howard over it This is memory stuff only , was that th history there

  42. Jovial

    “think you will find Keating pleaded on bended knees to Bernie Fraser to drop interest rates”

    I read that article on Peter Martins blogspot also and was a bit concerned.

    Firstly that the reserve is supposed to be independent yet Keating wanted Bernie to do what he asked, that he didn’t may show they are independent.

    However what was a worry was Bernies reason in that one member only of the board was for not dropping rates and actually increased them later, yet even though only one member wanted this the rest of the board went along to preserve unaminity.

    It is a worry that one member, who may could be anti-govt could set rates that the libs used so effectively in 1996, the five minutes of economic sunshine.

  43. Generally speaking Diogenes, Richard M.Nixon advocated many progressive policies, the Clean Air Act and the Americans with Disabilities Act were his.

    HSO – As Deng Xiaoping said it doesnt matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice.

    No Steve.. (rest of post self-deleted as provocative)

  45. Goodness. Negative income tax. Does this mean that if you want to sit around on your arse, the government will pay you a poverty wage? Would there be any requirement that you look for work, or could you get sit-down money? If you knocked back work, would you still get your poverty wage? Well, I guess you would under ESJ’s plan, because there’d be no “welfare bureaucracy” to stop it being paid!

    I can hardly see a Liberal Party introducing such a policy for single mothers, for a start…they need to be sent out to work, preferably far from home, doing overnight shifts, to earn the money to pay for child-care, for which they can get a rebate! well, at least that seemed to be the thinking of the previous government, which ESJ adored.

  47. Ron @141: This might help the memory…….

    http://business.theage.com.au/business/keating–fraser-starcrossed-mates-20080801-3oom.html

    PAUL Keating has accused the Reserve Bank governor of the time, Bernie Fraser, of doing him in by an excessive interest rate policy in 1994.

    And, in revelations about the fraught relationship between the two, Keating has claimed Fraser failed to ease monetary policy in 1989 because of opposition from a board member who “looked like a bad priest”.

    Keating is quoted in a new book saying that in 1994 he had told Fraser his tough monetary policy “will be a killing cost to me”. But Fraser was worried about an inflationary psychology returning.

    “His attitude made it clear that the only way I could have been able to stop what was happening was to direct the bank”, which would have ended its standing as an independent institution.

    “Despite what I sensed then, that his policy change was going to do me in, I wasn’t prepared to do that: I’d spent a decade trying to build the bank … I couldn’t pull the carpet straight from under them.”

    Interesting article.

  49. Oh yes Antonio every night I take out my copy of Van Onselen’s book and shed a quiet tear about what has passed us by … lol.

  50. Grog

    Here is the link http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/08/unfinished-business-paul-keatings.html

    “Insecure, and feeling his way into the Reserve Bank job, Fraser refused to act on Keating’s pleas.

    ‘I said to Bernie, “We’ve got to be quick and flexible. This is the time to go into reverse.” Keating says.

    ‘But there was on the bank board at that time a standout against this. I’ve got the picture of him still fixed in my mind: he wore black suits and looked like a bad priest. I said to Bernie, “Take no notice of him, he has become an old fool”.

    ‘But Bernie wanted to keep his board in unison. He said he had to put a high priority on holding the board as one. And I wanted to strengthen Bernie’s faith in himself as an independent central banker.’

    Keating says Fraser betrayed him a second time in 1994 when Australia was coming out the recession and the headline inflation figure nudged up a few points.

    Fraser rammed up interest rates by 0.75 percentage points in October, by 1.00 percentage points in October and by 1.00 percentage points in December.”

    The reserve bank was independent then, but should one person the board decide policy.

    Though as a commentator says maybe its Keating trying to rewrite history, or as I mentioned, one anti-govt type bringing down a govt.

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