Essential Research’s latest weekly survey features questions on refugees, climate change and the Olympics, along with the finding that federal Labor holds a 58-42 lead over the Coalition. Read all about it.
Essential Research: 58-42
Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Essential Research’s latest weekly survey features questions on refugees, climate change and the Olympics, along with the finding that federal Labor holds a 58-42 lead over the Coalition. Read all about it.
jovial, yup been there often, when the kids were young every friday evening we’d pack them into the back of the station wagon with some of their mates {no seat belts in those days} and do the rounds of the market for our weeks supplies and then take them for a meal to the gouger cafe, only kitchen tables and chairs in those days, mama had charge of the kitchen and the meals were original italian home cooking and they were enormous, we always got a warm welcome there with our wall to wall kids, gee those were the days, i can imagine todays grandies raising an eyebrow at me and saying “well really nan” if i suggested it as an outing nowadays, it was really the highlight of the week, you cant beat the sights and smells of the central market.
Grog, it’s got to be german garlic metwurst from the Barrossa Valley.
off topic,sorry William, i’ll pull my head in now.
Um Antonio I would rather people have money in their pocket then worry about some rorting the system, and to worry about rorting the system you need an army of bureacrats to check and protect the system which blows out the cost.
$300 a week hardly sets up anybody for a life of luxury. You lack heart if you are oppossed to that. You’ve probably never experienced a set back or unemployment I guess.
antonio, I suspect things have gotten a bit more convoluted than the classical definition of recession, as I suspect The Piping Shrike’s analysis suggests the political game has moved on from the usual political analysis – leaving the O.O. and many MSM commentators sloshing around in yesterday’s papers, so to speak.
Things aren’t as they used to be either politically or economically, the LP’s base voters are dying out and they have, as I understand it, almost no appeal to younger voters. The global economy is an extremely difficult beast to get a grip on, with the U.S. a basket case, courtesy of George the moron and the venal lenders and rescuers. Chuck in the planet doing things that spook the insurance companies, the first VCAT ruling today that said you can’t build within 2 metres of the shore, and you’ve got a lovely little recipe for who the hell knows what’s going to happen.
Hold on to your hats, it’s going to be a hell of a ride.
#141
An interesting quote from Keating. But Keating is a bit disingenuous to blame Bernie for all his woes. There are other options for slowing the economy, including cutting government spending and introducing new taxes, and keating didn’t want to touch them. It was easier to leave all the responsibility to the Reserve Bank, and let the RBA get all the odium. However, voters didn’t blame the Reserve Bank for high interest rates, they blamed Keating.
I remember buying a house when interest rates were 17 per cent, but business rates were considerably higher, and that’s what killed the economy. Most of us could cope with the extraordinarily high mortgage rates, because house prices were much lower then than they are now, but it was too much for business (ie factories, shops and farms) to face higher and higher repayments.
While Keating did much good for the economy, his use of his beloved “levers” was much less sophisticated than either of major parties would practice now. We’ve had more experience in an open market economy since Keating opened it up. And perhaps that will help the current government handle this downturn better than Labor handled the last one.
ESJ
your a hypoocrite
Ron
do you think the fibs will last or will demographics consign them to the dustbin of history
Rod
well was it we or just you having a pigout
Sondeo
#147
“OF DOING HIM IN by an excessive interest rate policy in 1994.”
thanks for that Sondero That line Paul believing Fraser ‘of doing him in’ comes back now
And good evening to you too Gusface.
Our GDP is about $1 trillion, transfer payments are about $100 billion currently, negative income tax would cost about $150 billion but a lot would be recouped through the tax system – bottom line affordable to end poverty in this country.
Jovial
Keatings experience may be why Rudd makes reserve bank deliberations public, makes it harder for one person to set the agenda, and now decisions have to be publically justified.
That’s what you meant by spot on? or was it the recipe for homos?
Gusface
It is we, but I get the goats cheese and sausages.
Kirribilli Removals got banned from this site?
A shame!
He’s actually not all that well at the moment!
ESJ: I disagree with you, but I respect your right to offer an opinion! This blog would be boring if it was solely an “ALP Wankfest”.
And, for those interested, Lindsay Tanner is currently appearing on the ABC Book Show.
#152 Actually ESJ I was attempting to be sarcastic. It tends to be the Liberal Party that “lacks heart” and constantly demands “welfare cheats” and “dole bludgers” be brought to justice.
As a single parent, I’ve had plenty of dealings with Centrelink and the Family Assistance Office, and am well aware of the welfare maze!
But I do think that giving everybody $300 a week is counter-productive.
I think the greatest outrages are the pathetic wages paid to apprentices, and the miserable allowances given to students. One of my daughters wants to be an apprentice, but instead, she’s working a tedious factory job because it pays so much more. This is not the way a clever country should be working. University students can’t get housing in the capital cities, need to work extra jobs to fund their study. Governments fail to fund enough uni places for doctors, vets, scientists – nowonder we have a labour shortage.
I think education and training need reform long before welfare and tax do.
ESJ
in other words “welfare for the rich”
say one thing,do another… wonder which former lib pm did that ESj
Rod
“It is we, but I get the goats cheese and sausages.”
too much information 🙂
[While Keating did much good for the economy, his use of his beloved “levers” was much less sophisticated than either of major parties would practice now. We’ve had more experience in an open market economy since Keating opened it up.]
Keating got rid of the levers, because they never worked properly.
Edward, pusses aside, if you design your tax and welfare system properly, it probable should include the sort of negative tax program you and others have suggested.
My view of it is this, everyone in the polity gets the basic wage paid to them above 18 years of age, beyond that the tax system takes over, at the simplest possible level.
Tanner is actually looking very “cool” on Auntie1. is there anybody on the other side that can look as cool as Tanner?
Sorry for being so “heartless”, but I don’t think people should get the “basic wage’ just because they exist. There’s little incentive to work at a shit job (and someone has to do them) if you get a basic wage for doing nothing. The biggest problem in the welfare system is that it’s so hard to get out of, because those who try to move out of the workforce often end up worse off, once they start paying tax and losing benefits. It’s particularly unfair on mothers re-entering the workforce, who may have to pay outrageous childcare costs.
We need a better basic wage, and better training to get people into meaningful and valuable jobs. If you can’t raise the basic wage, raise the minimum tax threshhold dramatically.
It’s an interesting debate, ESJ, and I do appreciate that you’ve raised it. I’m a bit sick of governments offering tax cuts as the answering to everything. If they take tax from us in the first place, why bother just giving it back to us? I’d rather it be usefully spent on health, education and, yes, welfare.
progressive
#159
“A shame”
No , William as usual made a correct call That Kirri consistently had ignored th moderator William’s very reasonable rulings , so he (rightly) got banned
Not being disengenuous posting that were you ? you ar on th same site & talk I assume I actualy found th guy happy to throw abuse , but whinged to th ref like a sook , when he got even a tiny bit back , drives Moderators mad those types Anyway wish him well and tell him to watch how he lies in bed , otherwise problem becomes a back daylight one
Ok –
ESJ -this is possibly the last time I will ever engage with you.
You have caused more upset and division than is reasonable on a site that is primarily about politics, but also crosses the divide into friendships that evolve from regular connection and correspondence with individuals, and that result in an understanding and appreciation of each other that is way above what happens in the MSM etc.
You have had the same chance as every other person here, no matter what their political differences and opinons ar,e to create those relationships.
instead you have gone out of your way to trash and belittle them .
And to some extent you have succeeded. there are people here who are seriously upset, and yet you remain blameless.
Well done
ron your a true gentleman for posting that 167.
I too have no ill-will to Kirri. He just wasnt cut out for the cut and thrust of blogging. He’s probably happier on the island now.
Okay, thank you everybody. I have NOT banned KR.
#109 ESJ – [I am bemused for a blog on which I have not ever posted I am a regular topic of conversation] – what have i done to deserve this?
Lindsay Tanner is the man, damn he was great on that Jennifer Byrne Book Show. I am frequently impressed with his TV gigs.
Jen,
I think the topic is stale and should end. Please promise to leave me out of your island posts too – its seriously weird to be discussed in another forum in which I dont participate.
You go your way, Ill go mine. Clearly William has attempted to be even handed (to the point of doing me down on the island posts today), so be it. The moderator/ owner sets the rules.
ESJ: You’re having another go at Kirribilli: not appreciated! He’s a far better blogger than me.
[Tanner is actually looking very “cool” on Auntie1. is there anybody on the other side that can look as cool as Tanner?]
And Kate Ellis was on Good News Week last night on Ch 10 (though it is actually recorded at the ABC’s Ultimo studios – how ironic). She was good as well.
I don’t expect anyone from the Oppositions doing similar shows.
Ron 121
The great divide in society economically is workers vs employers. That division has been around for centuries and in fact ever since people stopped “hunter gathering” and began to work for other people. Whatever happens, I cannot see that changing anytime soon.
It is true what has changed is the Global dimension. But workers are still workers and they still have to be protected if the society is to remain fair and equitable. Business also must be healthy if there is to be employment but also for the wealth of the nation. But Labor will not cross the line to become a party belonging to business. After all, the true wealth of a political party is not measured in donations, but in voters and that is who has the say. Labor on just these logical grounds alone will always be the party of workers.
Yes there is a sharp divide economically and that will remain. Pholosophically yes between big business and Labor, but not really so much between Labor and small “l” Libs these days.
Libs these days.
[158
rod Says:
August 5th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Jovial
Keatings experience may be why Rudd makes reserve bank deliberations public, makes it harder for one person to set the agenda, and now decisions have to be publically justified.
That’s what you meant by spot on? or was it the recipe for homos?]
I forgot. drinking a very nice white wine 🙂
Doug Are you serious?
Are we talking about the same ALP that raised millions from developers/ hotel interests etc etc in NSW?
The party of the workers?
Tanner should be made Treasurer quick smart! A real thinker.
Ron
care to answer my query re demographics and the demise of the fibs
pls
Doug
Labor is now the party of everyman/woman not just the workers
ps Unions BOO 🙂 couldnt resist
Hows your union doing gusface? Membership climbing?
5 members
mrs gusface is the organiser 🙁
gusface
# 155
“Ron
do you think the fibs will last or will demographics consign them to the dustbin of history”
Gusface I’d be intersted in your view , although maybe a politcal base may influence all our views but as a Labor suporter i believe both major Parties hav solid bases and will survive as close to historically averages in % support ( but increased globilisation as is likely , may change ther emethods how they achieve there existing Policys)
At 2007 Electon , Libs got 47.3% 2PP , only 2.7% from winning since then Sir Kevin has done outstandingley , th Libs hav done very poorly so Polls show 10 to 14% margin , but that was what it was 1 week out from last electon A turnbull or hockey will I think take Libs from ultra consevative to traditional consevative Liberals (and pragmetic) so i see 2PP at 2010 at 45% to 46% , a big Labor win , but 3 years latr could be narrowed somewhat , subject to our conamy’s status
Globally , long term troubled waters , that would support my defense of th Libs future as well Whilst th demographics do not lookk good for th Libs , I feel they ar a product of “young Agenda items/policy that th Libs ar totally out of court on now : ie. eg CC (Libs will wake up) , environwent (ditto) , W/C (time heals based on politcal history) , econamy now if a downturn (young jobs get lost & some young will swings back to libs ) So all of these factors would improve future young Lib votes & there future demographics , and a part of that current demographics and young ‘lost’ will retrn to Libs
As a Labor person , I’d like 65/70%% 2PP and Libs finished as Doug and Dyno think will hapen , but my opinion is different despite my “wishs” , so hav to go with my views not heart
What do you think Gusface ?
btw
if you remember i joined the twu just before the last election
though have only paid dues
that ad for big boofy blokes to go checkout dress shops just tipped me over
though i still cant figure why they turned out the lights at the end
why be shy eh esj?
Doug
#176
hav JUST seen your post AFTER my reply to Gusface , so did not include/account for whatever views you stated in your post , will send reply to yours
“Tanner is actually looking very “cool” on Auntie1. is there anybody on the other side that can look as cool as Tanner?”
Bronnie , amigo
Ron
re the fibs ultimate demise as a major political entity in its present form/structure:
partially poss’s analysis
mostly the current events both federally and state expose a huge rift between the ruling clique and the general members
also personal experiences before the last election and ongoing nefariety lead me to believe they is doomed
gusface do you think party membership actually counts for anything in either party?
[Gusface I’d be intersted in your view , although maybe a politcal base may influence all our views but as a Labor suporter i believe both major Parties hav solid bases and will survive as close to historically averages in % support ( but increased globilisation as is likely , may change ther emethods how they achieve there existing Policys)]
Possum made an interesting chart along these lines:
Me and th enemy marsupial rarely agree , but thanks for th link and will closely study it objecticely at this stage Dyno , Gusface & Doug hav both put up good points for there demise
The parties are just brands behind which a machine shelters – neither is a massed based party. In NSW the Labor/ LIberal parties are less than 500 people in either party.
ESJ,
There is only one thing worse than being talked about and that is not being talked about.
SNIP
Progressive
“You’re having another go at Kirribilli: not appreciated! He’s a far better blogger than me”
That wasn’t me you ar talking about but neverthless , first of all your #159 was inaccurate completely , Secondley where did you get that wrong info from ? Thirdly you ar actualy far better , and seem to know more about econamics as he is not fully experienced in that area yet fair enough , and you ar not th showy , so don’t undersell yourself
[In NSW the Labor/ LIberal parties are less than 500 people in either party.]
500? NSW Labor has a bit over 800 delegates at its yearly conference! Labor has about 50,000 members nationally, and about 1/3 of those are in NSW.
Um yes, and ShowsOn many of those delegates are people roped into union delegations who often arent even members of the unions – we are talking friends, wives, husbands, partners etc etc.
Doug
#176
Up to th last 1/2 of your last sentence Doug , your post is my sentiments exactly ! Was not sure whether you ar refferring to “small L” Liberal voters or “small L” Liberl politicans like Andrew Peacock/Ian Mcphee ? (i mention Peacock/McPhee rather than more curent small ‘L’ones (not many) as Peacock/McPhee were Senior Liberal politicans)
IF you ar actualy reffering to th small ‘L’ Liberal voters , I do feel th Liberal Party has ‘forgotten” them & does not reely represent them anymore And I do accept theoertically this voter group could swing to Labor through lack of being represented/disallusionmnt WITHOUT Labor having to change a single policy Is this what you were saying or have I misunderstood that you alrenatively ar talking of th small ‘L’ Liberal philosophy itself , that Peacock and McPhee believed in ?
[Um yes, and ShowsOn many of those delegates are people roped into union delegations who often arent even members of the unions – we are talking friends, wives, husbands, partners etc etc.]
You can’t be a delegate to a NSW Labor conference without being a Labor member. End of story. If you are part of a union delegation it doesn’t matter, the chosen delegates must be Labor members.
It’s like you can’t make lamingtons at Liberal fundraisers unless you use blue rinse. It is just the rules of the game.
LOL! 500. What’d you do, think up a number and divide it by pi?
The news on global warming is being presented as more pressing and more often and yet the LNP is still twisting and turning in agony trying to present some semblance of an greed position, whilst actually remaining buried in the past with WorkChoices.
Who would have thought Minchin and co could be so blind after a decade of a mythical great Howard govt of cleverness and control? They still lives in Howard’s dream world where there is no CC GW or ETS or if there is ‘who cares’ and WorkChoices MkII is imminent. A world where no one has the right to speak except him and his type.
Some diseases have no cure and can only be left to run their course for health to return. Is Minichin the Flu or Hepatitis?
Rather odd poll at Morgans
“ALP stands to lose five seats in full and half-Senate elections – August 2, 1991”
http://www.roymorgan.com.au/
It’s the same old story with Cossie.
[PETER Costello will not challenge Brendan Nelson for the Liberal leadership but may agree to a “friendly takeover” if the Opposition Leader were to step aside. As the prospect of a leadership handover increased in the past 48 hours, senior Liberals have also been told Mr Costello would stand for the leadership if anyone else challenged Dr Nelson]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24136039-601,00.html
Have we not heard of this before. I will not challenge Howard, I will not wreck the Party, I want it on a plate, blah, blah, blah.
You can excuse him for not having the ticker to challenge a sitting PM. But no ticker to challenge Brendan Nelson?
Why do they bother with him.