Morgan: 60-40

The increasingly unpredictable Roy Morgan has released a face-to-face survey of 797 voters conducted just over a week ago, showing Labor’s two-party lead up to 60-40 from 59-41 at the larger poll conducted over the two previous weekends. Both Labor (48 per cent) and the Coalition (34.5 per cent) are down 0.5 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens spiking from 8 per cent to 11.5 per cent, mostly at the expense of “independent/others” (down from 6 per cent to 3.5 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

474 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  1. Our Gough , not an econamics man for sure , but ‘crash through or crash’ was his motto , but we got uiversal healthcare , out of Voetnam , recognised China & a plan to pipeline cheap gas from NW WA to Sydney Melbourne (but teh banker had no mullah)

    Diferent times & challenges today , CC vs economic and Sir Kevin is the man , clever , methodical & governance process (reverse of howardism) Sir Kev rarified Kyoto & IS comitted to CC , unlike those slippery 2 US Pres candidates who talk pretty literature words , & unlike those heathen liberal rabbles now dissunified oh the pleasure it brings For mine , would hav liked to have seen in the Green Paper a fully costed super solar grid /equivalent with th scheduled phase in & infrastructure scheduled , good for CC and good for future high tech ‘oz’ industries & jobbs for our kids

    Now it aint there , so will send a sub for it put in the White Paper , dubbed the PB solar special , more boldnes sir Kev but not crash or crash Goughy politcly the dander is sir Kev cann;t say anthing till the White Paper , thats months of the scare Libs terminiting ETS by July 2010 , do not like to give the Libs such free tim to undermine

    Sue “slow start to secure us and then whammo with the big projects.’ , great !!
    Vera “their ain’t anything wrong with being a sensitive new age old gal!” Now Vera just delete ‘old’ and substitute ‘clever’ , and thats reely the you we believe

  2. The trouble with the “Goldilocks” approach, Growler is that we are talking about a real issue that has nothing to do with political spin. If the earth warms by 2 degrees the impact will be catastrophic and it really doesn’t matter whether the voters liked it or not. The Greens are pushing for strategies that will help to prevent this outcome, and they are not going to be popular or easy for the electorate. Given that, BB is willing to negotiate with Rudd and the Coalition to try and get at least some progerss happening. But it is too little too late from a climate change perspective. Forget the politics for a minute.

  3. Progressive what me me laugh is that dozens of councils have been merged over the past year with no lasting dramas but the Queensland conservatives can’t even manage to get two small parties working as one.

  5. ESJ,

    I’ve been out making a shilling so haven’t kept up with the scandalous revelations re the Gilligans Island back door emails and agreements. Have you revealed all yet, or are you just playing strip tease?

  7. I think the fact that the media have been unable to wipe the smile off Kev’s face or get him flustered no matter what they try says something.
    Bopping with the pope and pilgrims one week, gone bush for barbie with the folks at Arnhem Land the next, smiling all the way.
    Some of you are not immpressed with his CC green paper, which is fair enough, but me I’m like Sue H’s daughter, happy that the hate, nastiness and bigotry seems to be gone with the Rodent.
    I’m willing to give Kev a go until we see what’s in the white paper in a few months. I might have a bitch then if necessary but for now keep the smiles coming.
    Nice photo here
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/history-made-among-the-stringybarks/1225283.aspx

  8. Rod @ 335 –

    This:
    JWH, you may be surprised to learn, is ensconced up on the 12th floor of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Offices in a taxpayer-funded suite just down the corridor from Brendan Nelson’s office. The scuttlebutt is that Howard sometimes calls Nelson into his office for a chat.

    Confirms what I’ve suspected. The rodent is still pulling the strings that make the parliamentary party dance. May explain why Cossie is not interested in the leadership.

    .

    Jen @ 339 –
    As for the article you posted – what I get is that basically If Tip had been the Lib leader it would have been a closer eection because there really is no difference between the Libas and Labour apart fom the Apology and ratifying Kyoto, which Costello would have done anyway.

    That might have been the election ploy, but would he really have ratified Kyoto? It’s pretty clear that the party is still dominated by Howard, or at least his most ardent supporters, Minchin, Andrews, Bishop, etc, who are clearly GW deniers. Nor am I convinced that a Costello government would have issued the Apology.

    The one thing that really puzzles me about the Opposition’s CC policy is the Nats going along with it. The people likely to be hardest hit by CC are there supporters. Who’ll be voting for them if the bush is an unpopulated dust bowl? Feral camels?

  9. Must admit I think people here are being very kind to Henderson. At least Bolt has some consistency. Henderson’s article claiming that Rudd is just like Howard is classic intellectual slipperiness. He is trying to rewrite the Howard years and pretend that the “cultural war” never really happened. He’s right but he certainly banged on about it at the time as though it did.

    Put it another way, he might say Rudd is like Howard but even now he couldn’t get himself to say that Howard is like Rudd. Give me Bolt any day, at least he is upfront about what he thinks and sometimes he calls it right. Henderson rarely does.

  11. GG – #355 – [Have you revealed all yet, or are you just playing strip tease?], you mean it gonna be more exciting than [have urged Brendan Nelson to male his support for an emissions].

    you cannot be serious.

  12. Mayo Feral-
    I was summarising what Henderson was saying. I agree tha Costello would hae been even more of a liability than JWH proved to be and Henderson is just ding his usual stunt of pretending that the Libs are not as conservative as they really are.

  13. Mayo (358)

    I think the Nats scepticism shows exactly that this the coalition’s scepticism is not about winning votes. Tony Windsor shows how CC action has strong support in the Nats heartland. The Nats problem is more serious, they don’t stand for anything and are trying to find a way of distinguishing themselves.

    I think inner metropolitan Libs have the same dilemma where their electorates are some of the strongest supporters of cc action.

  14. Jen, is he talking about the creatures of the Black Lagoon on the G Island? I knew you guys were strange.

    [We are not alone, claims NASA astronaut Edgar Mitchell – Dr Mitchell, 77, said during a radio interview that sources at the space agency who had had contact with aliens described the beings as ‘little people who look strange to us. He said supposedly real-life ET’s were similar to the traditional image of a small frame, large eyes and head.’]

    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24069951-663,00.html

  16. “The Libs weren’t stupid in not going for him.”

    Yeah, I know, didn’t stop some of us in trying to convince the libs otherwise though!

  19. The Fibs split starts next week – Shadow Cabinet Tuesday – Party Room Wednesday.

    The ETS is not the reason, just the catalyst. Some of these guys just hate each other. 🙂

  22. If Brough get his way and delays a QLd merger tonight (this was always his job), the split will start in Pineapple land over the weekend when Liberal members resign and join the Nats.

    My understanding is, if this happens, there will be 2 Libs in the Qld parliament. 🙂

  23. The possibility is for a few Independent Liberal types after the next election too. But the Liberals only hold two Brisbane seats and the Nationals no Brisbane seats, at present so how the Nationals takeover is a winner when Brisbane won’t have a bar of them is beyond me.

  24. If the Liberals split and Nicholls of Clayfield defects to join the Pineapple Party, Bruce Flegg of Moggill will be the only Brisbane based Liberal in the Queensland parliament.

  26. The Liberals will probably lose party status, so there will be no leader required. Especially as the Liberal Leader,McArdill and Deputy Leader Nicholls were on Channel ten tonight looking set to leave the Libs if push comes to shove and Brough stalls the takeover.

  27. The Piping Shrike @ 363 –

    The Nats problem is more serious, they don’t stand for anything and are trying to find a way of distinguishing themselves.

    Well I suppose encouraging the destruction of your constituents whole way of life is certainly one way of standing out. But it seems not to have been a roaring success for the last blokes to try it, the Easter Island tribal council!

  29. “CONSERVATIVE Liberal backbenchers have urged Brendan Nelson to “get some backbone” and abandon support for an emissions trading scheme in Australia without action by major polluters overseas.”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24070048-11949,00.html

    Denis Jensen
    Don Randall
    Alby Schulz
    Concetta Fierravanti-Wells

    What an inspiring bunch of CONSERVATIVES. These Brenda backers have nowhere to go if they fail. Maybe the Mad Monk will be their saviour. 🙂

  30. [What an inspiring bunch of CONSERVATIVES. These Brenda backers have nowhere to go if they fail. Maybe the Mad Monk will be their saviour. :)]

    I wonder if Greg Hunt will go to the back bench if his and Turnbull’s policy is rolled?

  32. 379
    clueless dolts
    Where is their ‘green paper’ on the economic doom they’re predicting?
    I think Alby Schulz must still believe the earth is flat. Take a look at his electorate of Hume and explain how a largely rural electorate is an obvious net loser from taking steps to combat climate change – it’s beyond me.
    It’s be as simple as an aesthetic opposition to wind turbines I’m betting.

  34. It appears to me that the people who want Brenda to “get some backbone” are the same who voted for him in the leadership ballot.

    So Allbull still has about 50% of the party behind him – the other half want their choice to stop being a jellyfish, sorry Brenda is never going to grow a backbone. 🙂

  35. 7’s 4.30 news ticker running along bottom of screen said Jeff Kennet might run for Lord Mayor of Melbourne.
    Smirk might get a job as the deputy dog (well he’s proved he’s too gutless to be a leader afterall)

  36. What i want to know is this The Fedaral Libs & Fedaral Nats hav there own separate Party meetings in Canberra , which are held concurently for time & logistics reesons Now the new Q’ld Fedaral Liberal National Party MPs will face a dilemma Which Party room meeting of the two will they attend ?

    Now if the Fedaral Libs & Fedaral Nats to help out , then decide to hold there meetings at different times , then the new Q’ld Fedaral Liberal National Party MPs will have to face 2 meetings , but all other Fedaral Libs and Nats will only hav to attend one ?

    BUT the BEST part will be when the new Q’ld Fedaral Liberal National Party MPs
    attend a Liberal Party meeting to vote for a fundamental Fed Liberal propossal (that the Fed Nats firmly oppose) , then they’ll naturally vote with the Libs proposal BUT when they later go to the Fed Nats meeting , they’ll have vote against that same Libs proposal ?

  37. Ron, that’s nuthin’ just wait till the next meeting to decide the Federal Liberal Leader and all the Pineapple party members and senators are eligible to vote even Boswell, Joyce etc.

  39. Steve

    Does this mean the new Q’ld MP’s get to vote for BOTh the new Fed Liberal Leader AND the new Fed Nats leader ? (whereas other other Fed Libs & Fed Nats only get to vote for there own individual Party’s leader ?

  41. Runawake yea , you’re probabley right there he’d actualy think that ! I mean Barnaby got popped out of a Q’ld town where he used to run the local bingo night , and now he’s making decisons of state & he takes himself seriously , gotta given to the Nats they know how to pick quality

  42. Barnaby Joyce came out a while ago and said because the Pineapple Party is a Division of the Liberal Party of Australia and an affiliate of the National Party are are free to choose which Party Room meeting they attend on any given day.

    [However, Queensland Nationals senator Barnaby Joyce said the new entity would be constitutionally a division of the federal Liberal Party at the same time it was affiliated with the federal Nationals. “There’s nothing to stop me going into the Liberal partyroom and voting on who is going to be the Liberal leader,” Senator Joyce said.

    “Under the party constitution, MPs can choose whichever partyroom they want to sit in. People could chop and change between partyrooms.”]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23960612-5006786,00.html

  43. Steve “MPs can choose whichever partyroom they want to sit in. People could chop and change between partyrooms.”

    Sort of grown up musical chairs reely With Barnaby & his merry men the loose cannons

  46. Gusface, you should see who is in charge of the Queensland Liberals. Today we saw the Queensland Liberal President and the Liberal Parliamentary Leader sledging each other through the camera’s of the media.

  47. I can see the cartoons coming , of Nats running between meetings led by the lion hearted Barnaby

    It breaks all semblanse of the 2 Partys credibility vs all other Lib and Nats MP’s
    Why would the Q’ld Libs agree to what reely is a takeover , give there assets effectively away for free , and in the long run they’ll hav no power in the branch structure & perhaps even the identity will go Its almost politcal rape with a smile from the victim ?

  48. 323 GG

    Lets take your comments one by one.

    1. “The fact is that many left-of-centre critics of the Rudd Government have never worked in politics and/or the public service, or reported on government, or been involved in running a business.”

    I have worked in the public service, reported on government and I run a business. So please enlighten me regarding the relevance of your argument to my situation.

    2. I don’t recall using the term “dreary” or “old” regarding myself. They are just a good old-fashioned “ad hominem” argument. In addition, I use the term “Cynic” rather than “cynic” regarding myself. I have explained the significant differences between the terms on a few occasion but it can be difficult to educate all of the people all of the time.

    I would also like to add that you can tell more about someone by their enemies than their friends, and to have Gerard Henderson attack people who think like me gives me a warm inner glow.

  49. My undertanding is that “Optional Preferential Voting” has forced this shot gun marriage in Qld between the Nats and Libs. It would be fantastic if once the union is consumated Labor moves to bring back exhaustive preferential voting again.

  50. Try big money, free plane rides and helicopter trips, Ron, and the fantasy of winning the next election. Plus no preselection battles for seats of current members and senators. Quite an attractive deal.

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