Morgan: 60-40

The increasingly unpredictable Roy Morgan has released a face-to-face survey of 797 voters conducted just over a week ago, showing Labor’s two-party lead up to 60-40 from 59-41 at the larger poll conducted over the two previous weekends. Both Labor (48 per cent) and the Coalition (34.5 per cent) are down 0.5 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens spiking from 8 per cent to 11.5 per cent, mostly at the expense of “independent/others” (down from 6 per cent to 3.5 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

474 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  1. Ronnie, the speech I am proposing that Rudd makes will include an announcement of a super solar grid, or a range of similar projects. It would speak of the infrastructure needed – industrial, social and educational – to make the thing work.

    The common misunderstanding is that I believe just “making a speech” … mere words … would do the trick. No, there have to be concrete announcements as to what he thinks the future holds and plans to start the process rolling, oherwise it is indeed just hot air.

    I thought the examples I gave – Churchill, Curtin and Kennedy – were good examples, as they were the clear starting points for real processes that were successful in the face of great odds: beating Hitler, beating the Japanese and beating the Russians.

    All of the threats they addressed were existential. All of the processes they began were completed in under a decade, although exact details of how those processes would be finally completed were not known at the time, and indeed were the subject of much scepticism from “the experts”.

    It’s a very similar situation with Global Warming. Rudd has a problem which looks insurmountable unless there is international co-operation. The Libs want to wait until we can hide inthe crowd.

    But going in sooner rather than later puts us in a position to develop technologies we can license to the world. To develop those technologies we must ramp up higher education and business inputs to it. It also allows us to “lecture” other countries from a position of moral strength and prosperity.

    Along the way to our goal there will be spin-offs, just as there were from the Moon race and from other big projects such as the Snowy Scheme. The war itself produced full employment and a new industrial self-sufficiency, especially in Australia.

    In the case of the Moon, we haven’t returned for nearly forty years. Some could say Kennedy’s big idea was a failure, in those terms. But it was the spin-offs in technology that sowed the seeds for the world we have today. In the main aim of beating the Russians, the Russians failed to ever send a man to the moon. Ultimately they went broke and lost the Cold War as well. Going to the Moon did its part in that process.

    So, please don’t read me as thinking I’m suggesting Rudd just make a bull$hit speech written by spin doctors and then everything will be fixed. That isn’t where I’m coming from at all. The speech, or series of speeches and announcements, would be the equivalent of turning the first sod of Australia’s future, a future mapped out, at least in broad detail, but with definite goals, in those speeches.

    We’ve been relying on just digging holes in the ground for far too long. We need a new direction that will be hard to achieve, but rewarding along the journey. I don’t want to endorse just one idea, like your solar grid, as the only possible solution (although I think it’s a candidate for the mix). There are plenty of other things in the pot right now that can add to solar technology and possibly outperform it in harnessing the sun’s heat as well as light, or the energy under the ground. We can use them all. We don’t have to pick winners.

    Along the way our educational institutions will need to beguin training tomorrow’s scientists, agriculturalists and environmentalists. Towns near ideal sites for power generating plants will grow, not just during construction, but during operation of these plants. Why not combine education with power generation: “Broken Hill University Of Technology” anyone? “Bourke College Of Advanced Education”?

    The possibilities are endless. However, we are not being advised of them. We are simply being told – by both sides of politics, and by the media – that life will be miserable, but we might just pull through all this by a whisker.

    This morning there was a photo of a horse and cart on the front page of a newspaper with the caption something like, “Is this the transport of the future?” That is utter defeatism. Every day we get gloom and doom on carbon, on the economy, on house prices. It’s as if the pundits and the politicians have entered the “World’s Biggest Misery-Guts” competition. The fashion is to be as downbeat as possible.

    The first politician to show signs of life, and to tell us – with a plan – that things can, and will be better, will remain in government for however long he or she wants to be there.

  2. BB, don’t ever stop giving us your ideas, after all we are on the same side. I do not agree with your thoughts of what magnificent speech Rudd should or should not give.
    I will not forget the 70’s were Whitlam was a great orator and we saw his vision.He wanted to act ASAP but he also had a hostile Senate and was unable to fulfill his dreams, even though he was the first to reduce tariffs and we still have Medicare. He could have been our greatest PM only he tried to act too quickly.
    Over 2 years ago even though the ALP were winning most of the polls, the ALP still would not have won an election, even though most wanted to get rid of Howard but could not vote for Beasley. Although I preferred Gillard, Rudd was given the job of taking out Howard. The whole atmosphere changed the ALP lifted, the people had been given someone to replace Howard. The ALP has not lost a poll ever since and for over 2 years, now that has got to be a record. Rudd is a process man and he is trying to take the people along, slowly but surely one step at a time, that is his method. Have a listen to B Brown, the Greens they now want to be in the game and are willing to accept something less so they can work in with the ALP re CC.
    BB keep up the pressure so we don’t lose our objective.

  3. Muski,

    Kennedy was assassinated, Whitlam was politically assassinated, but many of their ideas and ideals live on.

    Whitlam had Medicare, which still exists despite the conservatives’ best efforts to kill it. Kennedy had the Moon, and we are conversingon the internet today in large part because the technology to enable it was fast-tracked so that the Moon could be reached by 1970.

    I’d like to see a detailed, funded, structured comprehensive plan by Labor for the re-development of Australia on sustainable grounds, with all the benefits that would accrue to the nation, naysayed by the Opposition.

    Rudd has already put national broadband on the table and is building it. He wants an Education Revolution to come on stream. There has to be a way of tying these, and many other big ideas together in the context of Global Warming, which is an existential challenge if ever there was one.

    Global Warming is something we must address. It’s not an option. But you can address existential threats in two opposing ways…

    You can speak only of grim times ahead and a hard slog forever, just to get us back to par.

    Or you can speak of grasping the opportunities for development and systemic change that the threat presents, making a better world, not just a pale imitation of the one we have at present.

    I agree with Ron, at least general, that an ETS is not the only solution to our problems. The Smarties will find a way to game the system. They could, for example, use uncompetitive practices to send their greener competitors broke and then buy their carbon credits off them for a song, so that the big polluters can go right on polluting. The Smarties in the middle make their commissions in both directions.

    There needs to be a positive incentive to change, not a negative one. Something to take a hold of the public’s imagination, bypassing the negativists in the MSM and in politics. We need to start somewhere with something concrete and optimistic.

    The virtues of cleaning up Australia’s environmental act could be part of this, but by themselves would be labelled “fluffy” and “Greeny”.

    We need to see that the country will be even brighter for our children and grandchildren than it has been for us.

    Every time I turn on the TV and watch the news or a current affairs show all I see is doom and gloom, dire warnings and misery. Interest rates, petrol prices, inflation, consumer sentiment. You can only take so much of that before you literally and metaphorically switch off.

    Consumer sentiment, the final sump where all this negativity pools, is at an all time low. It could do with a boost. It could do with some good news, even if that good news is about our future… as long as it is not the too far distant future.

    You keep bringing up reasons not to try to succeed. Whitlam this, Whitlam that, the MSM will whinge, Nelson will try to delay or defeat. It’s all part of the malaise that’s affecting our society at the moment. The opposition is trying hard to pin all this on Rudd. While I do believe that inflation and interest rates and petrol prices are not Rudd’s fault, I think that a lot of the negativity is. Not all, but a lot of it.

    Rudd gives the impression of being a cork on the water just like we are: floating around on the waves of despair telling us all we’re doomed.

    We already know that.

    Let’s have some hope set out before us for a change, not more and more misery.

  4. I can’t believe how far Andrew Bolt has gone on his blog to-day.

    Now headed ‘Planet saved, baby dead’ (earlier it was something like ‘the bag had a conscience’), he ties global warming etc. to the tragic finding this morning of a dead baby in a bus shelter – in a green bag.

    He is not apologising for the distress his insensitive remarks are causing!

  5. California has a biger economy than the whole of ‘oz’ So its a serous economic world ‘player’ Its renewal energy target is 20% by 2010 , with programs schedulaled to achieve that using solar & various R E The Green Paper specificaly states the ‘oz’ R E target is 20% by 2020

    Lets forget CC & let the world polute , can any one tell me on FUTURE econamic and techological grounds why the ‘oz’ R E target is superior to California’s ?

  6. BB-
    totally agree with your criticism of Rudd. And – I’m only mentioning it here because it’s relevant- that’s why there is so much global support for Obama: the message is one thing, but it is the delivery that inspires people. We have seen it with orators throughout history and we are seeing it again now. Rudd comes across as a nice-enough grey suit and in a time of looming crisis I think people need to feel that their leaders are passionate and inspiring , not bland.

  7. Let me add am not talking about empty rhetoric. I am talking about inspiring people to come on board what will inevitably involve sacrifice and change as well as opening opportunities for technological advancement and development of entire new industries and practices.
    Opportunity out of adversity – and we need our leaders to sell this idea convincingly.

  8. jen, i also seem to remember a corporal by the name of Hitler was also good at “delivery that inspires people. We have seen it with orators throughout history and we are seeing it again now.” it all depends.

  9. If electric trolleybuses were introduced the coal fired power stations could earn carbon credits as the high efficiency of the electric motor results in less emissions (over diesel buses & trains and cars.)

    Because Wong offered free permits to coal fired power stations, against all the advice of Garnaut, all the rentseekers are now demanding similar treatment.

    Re the ‘big thing’ BB etc want Rudd to announce, a real overhaul of our public transport would be it! The Overlander train between Adelaide & Melbourne runs way under its possible speed because the track is not up to it. We need to electrify that track as well. No more interstate semis! All interstate freight by rail! Roadworks to be carried out to avoid transport bottlenecks for heavy freight.

    When the schools start being fitted with solar panels there should be a ‘lab kit’ where students can do experiments with solar power (hey, wind too) so maybe using this sustainability angle to attract kids to science & engineering instead of business, accounting & law!

  10. Finns-of course it does. But Rudd is not talking about exterminating a race of people – he is talking about meeting the challenges of GW with some practical and difficult interventions (none of which go far enough btw), and needing to convince people that there is really some point to making the changes required.
    And we both know how influential good speeches can be.)

  11. No , we do not want a a slick yankee snake oil salesman , who does NOT even suport the ratification of Kyoto , has NEVER said the words from his mouth , and his written policy does NOT say so

    Kevin07 eats any US Pollie , Sir Kevin actualy ratified Kyoto and is now actualy addressing CC So yes Doug , on those grounds a ‘visionary speech’ by a US pollie like Obama selling pretty words & fluff but no subsrtance would be countra prioductive What Bushfire Bill & I (but differently) are advocating is we would like some TANGABLE enegy solutions articulated

    Voters cann’t use ‘ETS’ power in there friges Voters will never understand ETS , and Sir Kev is gonna try to sell this ‘product’ to voters but what voters will understand is threatened job losses by the Libs , at th moment the MSN & Libs scare is useless because the Libs are useless But the opening is there for them IF (we all hope not of couse) the Libs ever organize themselves Politicly never give a Lib sucker an even brealk or an opening So politcly & CC wise both Bushfire Bills approach & my differnt one have grounds

  12. ron- I am only referring to the impact that inspirational speech making can have in getting people to support a particular postion or approach . I am not talking about whether any other orator’s messages are OK or not – this is not the place for that discussion.
    I agree with BB that Rudd needs to find a better way to bring people on board and to help them to undertand the issues of CC. At the moment don’t think he is very succesful at doing this- hopefully he will improve.

  13. Amigo Ron,

    yep. i have no prob with the way kevin07 is travelling at the moment. Maybe he is the right man for these uncertain and changing times. GW and CC dont need inspiration, they need explanation and perspiration. Kevin07 and Penny Wong could just be the right people to process manage the explanation and perspiration.

    btw: ms jen is threading dangerously with (us here) “that’s why there is so much global support for Obama”. Coming off the lowest base of Dubya, even the proverbial drover’s dog would receive much global support.

    21/7/08 – RCP National Average 46.1 41.3 Obama +4.8

    why he is not +15? Ms jen?

  14. Finns and Ron
    I’m with you lot, and snake oil salesman just about sums up that “Great” yank leader.
    All this Kev bashing is getting on my tits!
    Hey here’s an idea! Why don’t the Kev hating Obama lovers go live over thar with the septics if they reckon OZ is in such a shit condition under our blessed leader?
    But be wery wery careful because you might end up living under Oh Mccain you’ve done it again lol!

  15. Guys- I think you’ll find that I am supporting Rudd- just saying he needs to get the mesage across better. Hardly Kevin-bashing!!
    Finns- if you want to talk about the US polls you know where to find us.

  16. From the front page of the OZ (quick, before it disappears):

    [Nelson told to stand firm on climate – Samantha Maiden, Online political editor CONSERVATIVE Liberal backbenchers have urged Brendan Nelson to male his support for an emissions trading scheme conditional.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/

    “Brendan Nelson to male his support for an emissions trading scheme conditional” – I know jesse jackson promised to cut off Obama’s nuts, so is Brendan going to show us his nuts to prove that he is tough on CC?

  17. Why are Rudd’s acolytes so sensitive when someone makes the fairly undeniable comment that he is a decent but dull, uninspiring, process-driven bureaucrat? We all knew that when we voted for him.

  18. Diogenes,

    You really are a dreary old cynic and it seems to twist your attitude to people and issues. Gerard henderson wrote an interesting article earlier this week regarding the transition to Labor. While I don’t agree with all Henderson’s analysis the following quote sums up the situation fairly well.

    “The fact is that many left-of-centre critics of the Rudd Government have never worked in politics and/or the public service, or reported on government, or been involved in running a business. Consequently, they have little understanding of how representative government works in practice and scant political knowledge that there are real constraints on what democratically elected leaders can do – whether they are social democrats or conservatives”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/gerard-henderson/rudd-or-costello-its-a-mild-ride/2008/07/21/1216492347740.html?page=2

  19. “He could have been our greatest PM only he tried to act too quickly.”

    Muskiemp

    One comment I saw on Whitlam was that he acted so quickly because he sensed he did not have much time, many conventions were broken in the libs quest to oust Whitlam, including the appointment of senators, the blocking of supply and the advice from a former liberal attorney-general as to whether the govt could be dismissed.

    I don’t think it would have mattered if Whitlam had brought in only one new policy or the many he did the end result would have still been the same. Supply blocked, a government dismissed in tough economic times a lot due to world factors and a subsequent landslide victory.

    Howard showed the benefit of being able to choose a time in 2001, but how would he have gone in an election before 2007 if his govt had been dismissed when riding low in the opinion polls. What if supply had been blocked during his time, with the media going feral over AWB, telecard, ministers rorting their travel allowances etc etc?

  20. Diogenes –
    baets me.Rudd is a decent but colourless political figure. Apparently stating that means I ama Kevin- Hataer … sounding familiar to a former frustrating debate.
    Criticism = hatred. Go figure!

  21. Geez Jen, play the man and not the argument. How unsusual for the residents of Gilligan’s Island. Abusive rhetoric is not debate. How about you provide some substance for a change?

  22. Growler- Diogenes is a “weary old cynic”. I am a “resident of Gilligan’s Island” . and you want some substance? You first…

  23. My 30s-something daughter in law tells me she feels strangely calm when watching Rudd on telly. Told me that the world is in such an upheaval that his calmness and smiling face make a great change from the bullying and fear of Howard, Costello & Co. This surprised me somewhat but I completely understand it. Rudd and Wong’s calmness are good for my blood pressure too!!
    I am still convinced that Rudd is leading us through a process to actually GET somewhere and he has used Nelson and the rabble to make Bob Brown see that a negotiated start is better than a delayed start to the ETS. Was this really his plan all along. Now to convince that conman Fielding and bring the Xenophon through as well.
    A slow start to secure us and then whammo with the big projects.

  24. Jen,

    Diogenes has used the same descriptor of himself in the past and I’m sure he is capable of being morally outraged without your assistance. As for the Gilligan’s Island description, it’s not actually abuse.

    I actually posted something at 323 which you chose to blow off with your usual prejudicial ignorance. How about you addressing that in a substantive way instead of fluffing around in tedious moral indignation.

  25. I agree Sue

    These are rough uncertain times, especially with the full fallout from sub-prime yet to come through. Rudd seems to be taking a nice measured approach.

    Also still has quite a few committee and review reports to come in, probably when they come in and he starts acting on them then the libs and media will complain he is doing too much too soon.

  26. Rod
    loved the whitlam metaphor

    though the MSM would never had savaged Johnny – to them even his shite was perfume LOL

  27. Oh Dear, finishing line fever has broken out in the Queensland Liberal camp with Brough calling a meeting tonight to delay the Nats takeover, just as the Nats have an axe to their necks ready to strike the Liberals out for all time.

    Why don’t they just give all their assets to the Nats for nothing and walk away from politics knowing that the Nats now have the numbers to stop any Liberal ever being preselected in the state of Queensland if the Pineapple Party is formed?

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/brough-seeks-to-delay-merger/2008/07/24/1216492613906.html

  28. While I don’t wish to use a switch from Kevin bashing to Obama bashing as a tactic, I do think some people’s optimism in Obama is too high. On foreign policy and social issues I’m sure he will be a huge improvement. But on climate change and fixing the US economy he is in a difficult position. Some of the groups of supporters he has attracted are large parts of the problem, like auto workers in Detroit and coal miners in Tennessee. I don’t see how he can solve those issues without greatly harming some of his core groups of voters. He has already made some very protectionist comments about trade and US farmers too, so I fear he is already badly compromised on economics.

  29. Growler- no outrage here, just having a dig given your former animosity towards anything written by Gerard Henderson (or was that soemone else?).
    As for the article you posted – what I get is that basically If Tip had been the Lib leader it would have been a closer eection because there really is no difference between the Libas and Labour apart fom the Apology and ratifying Kyoto, which Costello would have done anyway.
    So it seems Henderson is trying to claim Kevin as one of his own true conservatives now… and I don’t actually agree with him on that.
    However as a Greens supporter it is hardly surprising that I think the current Gov’t is not “left” enough in some respects. But they are such vast improvement over Howard and the reamaining Joke That Is The Liberal party that I am still pretty happy. And although Rudd is boring I still think he is doing a pretty good job.
    OK??

  30. [Oh Dear, finishing line fever has broken out in the Queensland Liberal camp with Brough calling a meeting tonight to delay the Nats takeover, just as the Nats have an axe to their necks ready to strike the Liberals out for all time.]

    I have absolutely no idea why some people think Mal Brough is a political genius. He only ever seems interested in things for himself. He is a supposed genius on indigenous policy, but couldn’t even hold his own seat at the last election. Now he is stalling an inevitable merger, even though it has the support of the Liberal national executive.

  31. [He has already made some very protectionist comments about trade and US farmers too, so I fear he is already badly compromised on economics.]

    It’s crazy that we have a free trade agreement with the U.S., but they effectively get around it by just handing their farmers direct subsidies to the tune of $300 billion p.a. That’s our entire federal budget.

  32. Shows on, if the Nationals takeover doesn’t look good today then why did the National Executive and the Liberal Party rank and file ever vote for it?

    Perhaps Brough has learned his delay tactics from Nelson on Climate change. They could just tie a bow around Liberal Party Headquarters and hand it over to the Nats on Sunday as planned.

  33. Jen,

    Definately, someone else. I may not always agree with Henderson, however, I think he plays it as he sees it.

    The critical thing about that article is that Rudd is governing for the 86% (you know 6 out of 7) of people who vote Coalition or Labor. The moonbeam Greens and fellow travellers on the left whingeing about his being boring or not going far enough fast enough are actually helping the Government in a perverse way.

    With the Libs playing “this is too extreme games”, Rudd can play Goldilocks Politics by not being too hot or too cold, just right for the average voter.

  34. Socrates Says: [While I don’t wish to use a switch from Kevin bashing to Obama bashing as a tactic, I do think some people’s optimism in Obama is too high] – they are laying out the red carpet for you on the G island.

  35. Steve: I’ve got to laugh, the QLD Coalition parties couldn’t organise a chook raffle, let alone a merger LOL
    And, I’m not at all disappointed in Rudd! Remember he’s got against him an obstructionist opposition and a hostile media. In those circumstances, he’s doing damn well to be still an average 10 points ahead in the polls.

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