Morgan: 60-40

The increasingly unpredictable Roy Morgan has released a face-to-face survey of 797 voters conducted just over a week ago, showing Labor’s two-party lead up to 60-40 from 59-41 at the larger poll conducted over the two previous weekends. Both Labor (48 per cent) and the Coalition (34.5 per cent) are down 0.5 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens spiking from 8 per cent to 11.5 per cent, mostly at the expense of “independent/others” (down from 6 per cent to 3.5 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

474 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  1. Only if a court overturns last night’s decision, today, Progressive. The more likely result will be the formation of the Pineapple Party on the weekend with Nats and Liberal rats being the members.

    At present the Liberals have two members from Brisbane, three from the Sunshine Coast and three from the Gold Coast.

    Very likely to bale would be members from Noosa, Kawana, Caloundra, Clayfield, and Currumbin.

    This will leave the Libs with Flegg as the only Brisbane Liberal member and either Stevens of Robina or Langbroek from Surfers Paradise as Liberal Party members.

  4. Seems Nicholls the Deputy Leader of the Queensland Liberals is set to go.

    “THE Queensland Liberal leader and two other MPs say they are prepared to quit the party as early as tomorrow and join a new conservative party.

    Liberal leader Mark McArdle, deputy Tim Nicholls and MP for Kawana Steve Dickson today entered the Queensland Nationals’ constitutional convention in Brisbane, behind Nationals leader Lawrence Springborg and wife Linda, to a standing ovation.

    Speaking outside the convention, the three MPs said they were prepared to join a new party if Mr Springborg pushed ahead with the plan alone, without the backing of the Liberal Party.”

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24075489-29277,00.html

  6. Thanks Steve, all very amusing for those of us down South!
    And I thought the N.S.W Labor Party was in the shit LOL

  8. Finns

    Every time I see Penny Wong I’m reminded of Ruddock and Reith.

    ron

    What are you going to do about the dipstick in a light plane who flies over your 45 km2 of solar panels and drops a million ball bearings on them, rendering Oz without electricity for a few years?

    GG

    “Life’s a bag of shite and then you die eh?” would be nihilist not Cynic.

    Cheers

  9. Penny has grace and is articulate, intelligent and witty. There are others on both sides, but not too many, in parliament who bundle these qualities. Why ‘grace’? The next time you are listening to Senate question time or the first time, as the case may be, have a careful listen to how Abetz (and he is not alone) pronounces ‘Wong’ when directing a question to Penny. If he keeps doing in the next session what he did in the last session, it must mean that he is satisified with the rat cunning of his dog whistle. ‘Grace’ is how Penny handles it.

  10. Boerwar

    Penny has that unscrutable quality which can be quite unsettling. I find her a bit scary. She certainly has all the qualities you mention. In SA, there are high hopes she might be our first decent highly-placed Federal politician in ages and erase our embarassment over Downer, Nelson, Minchin and Pyne. Robert Hill was probably our last one who we are not ashamed to own.

  11. Diogenoski
    #420 & 457

    You write to me saying being called a “cynic” is a complement & define what ‘cynic’ with a little “c” as : “an idealist whose rose-colored glasses have been removed, snapped in two and stomped into the ground, immediately improving his vision.”

    Diogenoski , you’re obviously referring to my last pair of rose coloured papers smashed in the Green Paper But us idealists of lingos don’t get put off easily , we just buy a new pair of solar coloured glasses , keep our faith in Sir Kevin , an move on to the White Paper submissions to fight another battle for some boldness in ‘solar’ , as oposed to all the negative arrows being thrown against Kevin07

    Now the 2nd “Cynic “ definition you suplied was with a capitol “C” quoting the Frenchman Voltaire but Voltaire would hav lost his head in the Frenh revolution guilotines , & I see similarities in othr threads there You see one can send a solar sub to intellect methodical Kev with substanse & he’ll assess it But if you send it to that slick sweet talking Yankee of no substanse , he’ll deliver a magnifient oratory of the great benefits of dirty coal helping CC !

    So join the lidealist of lingos , a cynic with a little “c” , and those ball bearings you ask from the sky from terrorists , we have a solar genorated ball bearing shield , bounces right back at dems

  12. Diogenes,

    “Every time I see Penny Wong I’m reminded of Ruddock and Reith”.

    Your fantasy life is way weirder than mine.

  13. Diogenes wrote:

    What are you going to do about the dipstick in a light plane who flies over your 45 km2 of solar panels and drops a million ball bearings on them, rendering Oz without electricity for a few years?

    Since you bring up a specific, detailed threat. I answer with a specific detailed response.

    Firstly, you’d need a 747 to carry a million ball bearings.

    Secondly, you’d have to distribute them evenly.

    Thirdly, even if you could distribute them evenly, it’d be one ball bearing per square metre.

    Fourthly, even if you could do all of the above, you’d need a Norden or similar bombsite to get them accurately dropped.

    Anyway…

    You don’t have one big solar farm. You have many smaller ones.

    Typical hack, Diogenes. You’ve been street fighting for too long.

  14. Ron

    Why don’t we just ask the aliens how they harnessed their energy effectively enough to travel at the speed of light for seven years to get here (I’m not allowing for a wormhole)?

    An ex-NASA moon-walking astronaut claims that aliens have frequently visited us for 60 years but it’s covered up in a huge conspiracy, presumably by Big Oil. Why isn’t Rudd showing some leadership on this issue and setting up an embassy for the aliens?

    Moon-walker claims alien contact cover-up
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24070088-13762,00.html

  15. Why isn’t Rudd showing some leadership on this issue and setting up an embassy for the aliens?

    What makes you think he isn’t?

    And why would he tell you anyway?

  16. 462 BB

    It was an illustrative plot only. I’m going to have to work on the details.

    I’m just trying to stop Ron from building a single solar farm and encouraging your 25 site model. The single farm model sounds grand and is easier to do politically but isn’t feasible due to terrorism.

    PS Where do you get one of those Norden bombsight thingies?

  19. Steve,

    “Election speculation has broken out I think mainly because in the past elections are usually called a week after the latest Liberal leadership change.”

    QLD would be having elections awful often if they did every time the libs changed leader.

  22. 465
    Diogenes Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
    462 BB

    It was an illustrative plot only. I’m going to have to work on the details.

    I’m just trying to stop Ron from building a single solar farm and encouraging your 25 site model. The single farm model sounds grand and is easier to do politically but isn’t feasible due to terrorism.

    In reality it’s not really feasible at all. Best to put your power generation reasonably near to your population centres. Even then you want redundancy, so more than one plant is a really good idea. I’m not sure about the efficiencies of scale but I’d guess 10 x 10 hectare sites is nearly as efficient as a single 1 square kilometre site and a damn sight easier to build and maintain and less attractive as a target to boot. (BB – comments on the efficiency question?)

    PS Where do you get one of those Norden bombsight thingies?

    Been a while since they made them – might be a challenge.

  23. [Did anyone believe the last Morgan Poll?]

    Should anyone being paying attention to any polls until we even get close to an election? I mean honestly…

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