Morgan: 60-40

The increasingly unpredictable Roy Morgan has released a face-to-face survey of 797 voters conducted just over a week ago, showing Labor’s two-party lead up to 60-40 from 59-41 at the larger poll conducted over the two previous weekends. Both Labor (48 per cent) and the Coalition (34.5 per cent) are down 0.5 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens spiking from 8 per cent to 11.5 per cent, mostly at the expense of “independent/others” (down from 6 per cent to 3.5 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

474 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  1. [free , and in the long run they’ll hav no power in the branch structure & perhaps even the identity will go Its almost politcal rape with a smile from the victim ?]

    Nah they should merge, then they can have two main factions – Liberals and Nationals, and two sub-factions per main faction.

  2. Diogenes,

    The key word was “many”. There are always rogues sampling on the Bell curve of life.

    Cynic/cynic, you say Potato, I say potato.

    Dreary, old ,very relevant.

    I love Rudd being attacked from the left. It just helps consolidate his postion. Please continue.

  4. Steve

    See the demonstrators , demonstrate over a picadilly merger but not over CC , got there priorities right

    You mentioned some fringe benefits , what was in it for the Q’ld Libs executive whose main role is top protect the party ? What i’m thinking is in Brissy , where are there enough Nats votes to hurt the Libs and vice versa in Q’ld country , was it in the coastal towns in the 2000km from Maroochy to Cairns with prefs optional ?

  5. Ah, those who love to attack Rudd from the left? I’m sure the lefties here will be so pleased to know that the market is back baby. Oh yeah! God bless capitalism.

  6. GG

    I think “dreary” is an excellent word to sum up Rudd. Dunno about old as I’m only a young thing at 40.

    You must be in the minority at PB amongst the hard-line Rudd supporters in loving it when the left attacks him. You may recall my original observation that Rudd acolytes are very sensitive when the left points out what an dull, colourless and uninspiring leader Rudd is.

    I think he is also very decent, competent and safe which balance out the criticisms. He is a long way ahead of the alternative.

  7. The Nats have built in a zonal system Ron, known as a malapportionment. There are more rural zones than the two for South East Queensland where the majority of people live and Liberals live. This builds in a huge majority for the Nats in the meetings that matter.

  8. Steve
    I stand corrected:
    “M. Python is apparently in charge of Federal Liberal policy, or so it seems ”

    They are obviously subcontracting to the Qld branch as well ,)

  10. Steve

    when i was in Brissy Joh had that systsem , a reel gerrymander , didn’t Goss get rid of it or Beattie , how has it survived

  12. Ron, this is all within the structure of the Pineapple Party. The point about the demonstrators is it sounds like they are party hacks and members who don’t realise that only delegates get to vote on the weekend.

  13. Anyway with 10 000 members including rams, bulls and racehorses as no independent verification of their membership has been made public the Queensland Nationals would outnumber the 5 000 odd Liberal members.

    I just can not see how there are about 120 members of the National Party for each electorate in Queensland, it defies commonsense and only about 6 000 votes were received when they mailed them out to the members. I fail to see why the vote wasn’t conducted by the Electoral Commission anyway.

  14. Amigo GG

    Steve tonight has restored my faith that the Q’ld libs reely are pineapples & always have been , but now see it was the Nat farm rams & bulls that voted for the merger

    Now this is like the Q’ld liberal National party circus riddle questons i asked earlier with there revolving doors Now likewise nn the other thread i was always addressed as “Ron’/ron” Therefore I was never sure whether i should give one answer or two , and if two answers were required did both answers hav to be the same

    Tonight i find there is a difference between “Cynic’ and “cynic” So if I’m accused of both , have I got two different insults , or tewo different complements , or 50/50 ?

  15. I wonder if the Pineapple party will retain the historical factions of Nats and Libs? Sort of like how in S.A. there is a historic split between the Liberal & Country League and the Liberal Movement that still influences the make up of the different S.A. Liberal party factions.

  18. Two Tasmanian senators are locked in a dogfight.

    “A preselection battle has begun as two Tasmanian Liberal senators fight to secure their political futures.

    Senator Guy Barnett and Senator Stephen Parry are jostling for a safe spot on the party’s ticket, two years out from the federal election.

    Neither senator wants the ticket’s third spot, which would give them only an even chance of retaining their seat in Federal Parliament.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/24/2313841.htm

  20. Ronster

    The Cynic’s Sanctuary site explains a bit about Cynics. The capital C Cynics are adherents of the philosophy of Antisthenes, Voltaire, Nietzsche, Diogenes, Machiavelli, etc. The small c cynics have a more personal view of life, best described as “an idealist whose rose-colored glasses have been removed, snapped in two and stomped into the ground, immediately improving his vision.”

    I consider both to be compliments, whereas GG appears to differ. He presumably makes exceptions as Jesus Christ is considered to have many features of a Cynic, for reasons described on this site.

    http://www.i-cynic.com/whatis.asp

  21. Diogenes,

    Life’s a bag of shite and then you die eh?

    A man who sacrificed his life so my sins could be erased is not a cynic. He is the ultimate optimist.

    Cheers.

  22. “A preselection battle has begun as two Tasmanian Liberal senators fight to secure their political futures”

    these 2 guys may be Senators , sitting next to each other in th Chamber smiling as supposed ‘freinds’ working for there Party
    Steve , what re as GG refered earlier , the Q’ld Libs & Nats hav merged to avoid the vote losses from optional pref votng , so what happens to the Lib/Nats votes optimising if Anna bligh does a rope da dope trick & switchs to compulsory pref voting

  23. Ron, I don’t know that we can really determine what will happen until we see what comes out of the Liberal meeting tonight and the constitutional conventions on the weekend.

    I think it is a well resourced but lazy opposition in Queensland that is the main problem for the conservatives in Queensland more than the voting system anyway. Policy development is not one of their strongpoints.

    Imagine what a tree clearing policy, daylightsaving policy, recycled water policy or gunlaws policy would look like under a single conservative party. You’ll have to imagine it because the Pineapple Party certainly haven’t produced any clear policy along the way.

    When the conservatives can win two seats in Metropolitan Brisbane, it is the parties policies that are on the nose and no voting system can help there.

    A history of Queensland voting methods are here:

    http://arts.anu.edu.au/democraticaudit/papers/200402_wanna_qld_opv.pdf

  24. Barnaby Joyce is an idiot: hardly a newsflash, but if you watched Q&A tonight, you’d agree with me!
    It’s a shame the Liberals seemingly are entirely ruling themselves out of the ETS debate, just so Nelson’s leadership can be propped up by a bunch of sceptics.

  25. Gorgeous Leigh has just ripped “firepower” Bishop into pieces on Lateline. A new Kama Sutra position has now just emerged that all CC policies are now under review but the policies that the Libs took to the last election still stand. Is that clear?

  28. [Barnaby Joyce is an idiot: hardly a newsflash, but if you watched Q&A tonight, you’d agree with me!]

    I can’t believe how the entire panel managed to misconstrue the computer game question. The point of the question was that there is no R18+ classification for computer games, even though there is such a classification for films. The questioner was simply pointing out that there are some computer games that would be deemed acceptable for people over 18 that are currently banned (Refused Classification) because they don’t fit into the MA15+ classification.

    The problem is that politicians think computer gamers are all early teenagers, so they haven’t bothered amending the 1995 classification act. Plus it is hard to tell parents to monitor what games their children buy and play – just look at the stupid debate about internet filtering!

  29. G’evng Amigo FINNS
    “A new Kama Sutra position has now just emerged that all CC policies re Libs”

    just Unbelievable Thats why your brioad assessment of Sir Kevin & Penny being the right people to take through the CC politcl pitfalls I agreement Tink he’s the cleverest Pollie we’ve had so intellectualy i’m happy he sees the balances involved Penny is street smart & tough negotiator & thats one needs in Cabinet aganst any overworried re politcal reaction midnight oil man has the right heart after AFC , but Penny can play beter poker Will send in th PB solar special sub to th lady , goona be alot of negitive subs submitted from the “dark” side so mine will from the ‘bright’ side offering optimisms

  31. I thought they eschewed leadership as too directionist. The model seems to be more the community co-operative cacophony of chaos.

  32. Amigo Ronnie, all i ask for is for Penny “Lane” Wong to smile and show her personality a bit more. Is that too much to ask?

  33. The merger has been postponed after the Queensland Liberals read Diogenes comment at 420, tore off their rose coloured glasses… Now we will see where the rats keen to leave the sinking ship move.

    [A motion to postpone a planned merger of the Queensland Liberals and Nationals has succeeded.

    A tense meeting of Liberal officials has been held in Brisbane.

    After about three hours state Liberal president Mal Brough and federal president Alan Stockdale have succeeded in convincing the meeting to approve the delay.

    Going into the meeting several council members expressed their disgust that Mr Brough would seek to delay the weekend conference, but he says he was obliged to put the facts on the table.

    “This meeting is needed because state council needs to understand we have not heard back – either myself or the federal president Alan Stockdale – from the National Party’s Mr McIvor, who undertook to come back to us as late as yesterday on the range of proposals that we have put to the National party to try and break this impasse,” he said.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/24/2313894.htm

  34. steve,

    any idea on how long the delay.

    Just Costello has said the whole things a “crock” and there may be a change to the landscape in the next few days.

    Just making one and one equal a pineapple.

  36. [Amigo Ronnie, all i ask for is for Penny “Lane” Wong to smile and show her personality a bit more. Is that too much to ask?]

    That is her personality. She is like that during regular conversation as well.

  38. Steve & Diogenoski

    i cheked hat cynic site and here was one of the fair dinkum definitons of a ‘cynic” does it apply to the Libs & Nats ?

    “wondering if you’re inferior to your inferiors”
    .
    .

    so there wondering which of them is inferior

  40. The Liberals are so dysfunctional at state level, you wouldn’t even bet on Iemma losing in 2011, or more likely, John Watkins/Nathan Rees losing in 2011(that’s the leadership team I think will take N.S.W Labor to the next state election).

  41. FINNS “Amigo Ronnie, all i ask for is for Penny “Lane” Wong to smile and show her personality a bit more. Is that too much to ask? ”

    Penny says if i can convince on a super solar grid she’ll not only smile , but give me a cuddle Its looking good cause she likes big picture infrastructre projects delivered in unique dialec lingos

  42. steve,

    So what happens next?

    Do the Libs split and half or more move over to the Nats?

    Can Brough revitalise the Libs with his stunning intellect and people skills?

    How did Howard keep carrying Qld?

  43. GG
    “Do the Libs split and half or more move over to the Nats?”

    There’s only 8 of them libs , 5 city and 3 ‘country’ that means 1 of the city Libs has a problem splitting They reely are a joke pineapple group , and the merger (takeover) shows Brough as naieve & there MP’s as incompetent

  44. http://news.theage.com.au/national/govt-to-work-with-energy-sector-rudd-20080725-3kmo.html

    “Mr Rudd said the LNG challenge was threefold: continuing its role within the economic future of Australia, expanding the industry as a green-friendly energy and reducing its emissions.

    “And you know what, you can do all three things,” said Mr Rudd.

    There was also a viable role for coal-fired energy in Labor’s vision for a green-friendly Australia, he said.”

    BB maybe this aint much but compared to howard it is a quantum leap

  46. re: Progressive @ #440

    I agree with you about state Liberals being dysfunctional. In NSW they have only been able to find two leaders capable of winning a state election in the last 50 years.
    That’s 2 out of 19 leaders in over 50 years who were able to do what Morris Iemma has achieved.

    At present the NSW Libs don’t appear to have a leader.

    IMHO, Mr Iemma will be returned with an increased majority in 2011.

  47. Well the courier Mail don’t tell us much. Could the merger still be put on track by lawyers and courts sifting through the problem or is it doomed forever?

    The funny thing is that the promerger people who are most likely to be given the answer that these dysfuntional litigants claim they want to achieve are the ones least likely to still be members of the Liberal Party when the courts decide how the merger could be achieved.

    I still think that in theory a merger of two political parties is not that difficult to achieve. It is just that it won’t be achieved with these two dysfunctional parties in this dysfunctional format.

    What is Stockdale on about with another secret Liberal plan in his back pocket?

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24074748-952,00.html

  50. Steve, because you’re our unofficial QLD correspondent, what’s your view?
    Do you think this merger will happen, or not?

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