Morgan: 60-40

The increasingly unpredictable Roy Morgan has released a face-to-face survey of 797 voters conducted just over a week ago, showing Labor’s two-party lead up to 60-40 from 59-41 at the larger poll conducted over the two previous weekends. Both Labor (48 per cent) and the Coalition (34.5 per cent) are down 0.5 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens spiking from 8 per cent to 11.5 per cent, mostly at the expense of “independent/others” (down from 6 per cent to 3.5 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

474 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  1. So Roy’s gap is 20 whereas Neilsons is 8. Bit of a difference there don’t ya’all think?
    Is Roy ‘avin’ a laugh or wot?

  4. Unlike AC Nielsen, for the Libs, Roy Morgan provide not the “narrowing” but the harrowing, n’est pas John of Melbourne?

  7. You know, I’m constantly surprised at many of the comments I read on this site: Surprised that folks actually take these “polls” seriously.
    This recent difference in results merely illustrates the inevitable inaccuracies that result from small sample, poorly constructed, questionnaires.

  8. Morgan is not credible really. However of course, one day he’ll have the coalition within, say 4% and people will think “ah, now that’s credible”, even though he’ll be using the same flawed procedure.

  9. Gary Morgan says:

    “Support for the Rudd Government remains strong. The Government has maintained a 13.5% lead over the Opposition as debate over how to regulate Australia’s carbon emissions picked up after the release of the Garnaut Report.

    “The debate has caused an increase in support for the Greens to a record high 11.5% (up 3.5%), beating the previous record high for the Greens of 11% during March 2003 in the run-up to the Iraq War.

    “The successful implementation of the carbon trading system is the Rudd Government’s biggest challenge and any mishandling of its implementation will see support for the Greens and Coalition increase at the Government’s expense.”

    In other news, Gary Morgan says that if the sky wasn’t blue it’s probably be some other colour.
    Fair dinkum.
    Looks like someone gave him a hand with the first two talking points though.

    Something funny is definitely going on in pollster land though with the marked differences. Given that they really only get the chance to truly calibrate at election time, has something changed that’s causing this? Is it regional? Is the way that one or the other is asking the questions revealing previous or new current bias?

  16. The growth in the Green Vote continues on, unabated and unreported. Consistently %10 or greater, I wonder if Possum or William have any graphs or theories on where the green ceiling is. The Democrats at their height had ? 14-15%.
    Unfortunately for the Libs, the Democrats were a far more right wing friendly group, I particularily liked the way they did split tickets, they had much of the rhetoric of the radical but were based on the bones of a rather bitter and twisted right wing individual with a chip on his shoulder.
    I can’t see the Greens ever doing worse than split tickets and as we know their voters are the very ones who are actually capable of voting without following the HTV anyway.
    Just because the Morgan poll is consistently overstating the ALp result it needn’t be dismissed. If anything it is consistent, therefore all we should do is look at the trend, it has moved 1% to the ALP whereas the Age poll has moved 1% away. Conclusions at this stage could well be that not much has changed. ?

  17. The only thing polls 2 years out from an electon help is the timber industry And Shanhan to explain his PPM But Gary Morgan is in fantasyland both showing Labor at 60% , and then adding his professional comments , which mean nothing
    My sense is the trends simply say kevin07 is competent presently , but think expecting above 54/55% 2PP ever is a never

  19. Amigo Ronnie,

    You gotta to hand it to Kevin07. This is what Maxwell Smart would say to 99 as my “i-appoint-one-of-yours-then-i-can-appoint-many-of-mine” trick. Kimbo, Carr, Brack anyone?

    [FORMER deputy prime minister Tim Fischer has confessed he went “white” when the Prime Minister offered him a Vatican posting. But the newly announced ambassador to the Holy See believed it was an opportunity to represent Australia that was too good to pass up.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24050721-601,00.html

  20. Gary Morgan probably spent the weekend thinking of how to explain his heading in the right/wrong direction question – both went up. 🙂

    Re: Timbo are there any trains in the vatican?

  21. Finns,

    Tim Fischer will probably try and get a model railway introduced for all the visitors to get around the Vatican.

  22. GG, i assume then that everyone will be wearing the (gucci red) shoes of the Fischer’s man on the train?

  25. Finns,

    Good idea.

    All the passengers can click their heals and say they are not in Kansas any more.

  26. GG, is Tim Fischer in trouble? i thought he should be +15 by now.

    Gallup Tracking 07/17 – 07/19 45 42 Obama +3.0
    Rasmussen Tracking 07/17 – 07/19 47 45 Obama +2.0

  28. We live in interesting times! The growth in the Green vote is also fascinating! After years, actually around 11, of Prime Minister Howard and now Prime Minister Rudd, I think a number of voters are simply reacting to a very CONSERVATIVE new Prime Minister. I had a phone call today from my nephew who said quite clearly that he doesnt like Kevin Rudd’s and elements of the Labor Party’s very close association with religious organisations! Yes, Green preferences will return back to the Labor Party but I think that people to the left in politics will endorse the Greens on a more regular basis. If this keeps the dreaded Liberal/National Parties out of all governments, so be it! However conservative Labor has it all in front of them! Perhaps they should see the success of the Spanish Socialists eg and break free!!!!! The Green Left struggles in countries where traditional Socialists are strongly reformist! I personally long for this in Australian politics! Stick it up the Conservatives!!!!! Labor has the possibilities ALL before it, but will it have the guts to deliver the reforms that so many Australians long for after the bleak and devastating years of John Howard, One Nation and Family First. I wait in anticipation!!!!!

  32. The Greens increased their primary vote by a staggering 0.6% at the last election to a whopping 7.79%.

    While Labor only managed a mingy 5.74% to record a paltry 43.38% primary vote.

    Yep the Greens won the election. 😛

  33. yea , there are lots of dems Greens in the 150 seat HOR Actualy in the HOR , there are mor ushers than Green MP’s

  35. This from an Essential Research poll on Ross Garnaut’s plan on climate change

    “It also canvassed the public’s thoughts on federal Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson, who did not fare well.
    Of the 15 personality traits surveyed, Dr Nelson beat Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s ratings in a survey last month on just one: he was perceived to be less demanding.”
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24054258-1702,00.html

    Poor undemanding Brenda, lol
    By the way, has he gone trucking up the Pacific Highway with a Bundy alchopop 6 pack and a hairy trucker in his big rig yet?
    10 4 good buddies.

  36. Vera ,

    he should hav caught one of sir Timmys trains Did you hear about out new Vaticn man , set up 2 magnifient toy train tracks , going up dales & down valleys , over those toy bridges , then went whizzo with his 2 trains , and they collided Should had undermanding Brendan steer

  37. Trains aren’t manly enough for Brenda, it’s gotta be a truck… a bloody big truck, or a motorbike…a big powerfull one to throw a leather clad leg over and pose on before tossing back his unhelmeted hair and chucking a wheelie to show us all how cool he is. Oh be still my beating heart!

  38. Finns, has Catrina been in touch with you? She has emailed me a number of times begging me to post on the rebel site. I think they are getting bored perhaps?

  41. G/Growler
    yey! born to be wiiiiiiiiiiiiild,

    ron
    Horatio’s long whats? uh-oh feeling crook now, where’s my sick bag

  42. ESJ,

    I was just wondering hopw the Papal visit went.

    All we got on your ABC was 25 year old sex abuse stories.

    I was wondering whether any of those hundreds of thousands of pilgrims made an impact on the community. Or were the atheists and deviants outraged that there could be an outbreak of happiness and normal youthful exuberance without the violence or alcohol.

  43. Vera , you may be saved , the truckie may get lost !

    Brenton
    #28
    “now Prime Minister Rudd, I think a number of voters are simply reacting to a very CONSERVATIVE new Prime Minister”

    Cann’t let that pass on the train track I’ll give you ‘consevative’ : the rodent , Dolly , Mr Smirk , silky toff Turnbull , Kevin ‘hicks’ Andrews …they believe in workchoices , they do not believe in universel heath care , they agreed with the Iraq invasion , they did not believe in Kyoto etc thats ‘right’ politcs i may have a beef with Kevin07 over ETS & not having a super solar grid , just not bold enough at the minute but he IS ‘left’ , not rodent-ism , and mate you mmust have caught one of Sir Timmys “green” trains

  44. ESJ, i am no longer her toy boy, so no email from her i’m afraid. there is only that much in-breeding you can do before the recessive gene pool becomes showy, lol.

  45. Can anyone explain to me the logic behind the Oz Ambassador to Ireland doubling as the Ambassador to the Holy See? Why wouldn’t the Ambassador to Italy cover the Vatican? And how did the writers of the Hollowmen know about Timmy getting the gig before us?

  47. I wonder what the average National party member thinks about the right wing nutters in the Liberal party.

    I wonder if Rudd is trying to give them a reason to think very deeply about the issue.

  48. “Can anyone explain to me the logic behind the Oz Ambassador to Ireland doubling as the Ambassador to the Holy See? ”

    you are obviously not Irish , otherwise you could the reasonable logicv involved

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