Morgan: 60-40

The increasingly unpredictable Roy Morgan has released a face-to-face survey of 797 voters conducted just over a week ago, showing Labor’s two-party lead up to 60-40 from 59-41 at the larger poll conducted over the two previous weekends. Both Labor (48 per cent) and the Coalition (34.5 per cent) are down 0.5 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens spiking from 8 per cent to 11.5 per cent, mostly at the expense of “independent/others” (down from 6 per cent to 3.5 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

474 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  1. Or, seeing as how Fischer was leader of the Country party, he was sent over as an exercise of Palpable Bull.

    Well, you’d get it if Ron said it.)

  2. GG

    Even I was impressed with a 400,000 crowd at Randwick without Octagonal running.

    Probably The Beatles at their peak could have got that with a single Oz show. Maybe Michael Jackson or Princess Diana. It’s quite mind-boggling really.

  3. charles 47 Says:
    July 21st, 2008 at 8:37 pm
    “I wonder what the average National party member thinks about the right wing nutters in the Liberal party”

    What do you think ? The old ‘country party’ members were conservative but there prioritys were farm issues , and the right wing Lib’s prioritys aren’t farm issues

    Fulvio , we Irish have our logics , which you decoded the Country Party affiliation accurately

  4. Diogenes,

    The Beatles bigger than God?

    I don’t think so.

    Princess Diana,

    Only a funeral.

    Michel Jackson,

    A kindergarten convention?

  5. Charles @ 47 went:

    “I wonder what the average National party member thinks about the right wing nutters in the Liberal party.”

    Most of the Nats I know probably reckon they’re Communists :mrgreen:

  6. GG

    Q- How do they know when it’s bed-time in the Michael Jackson household?

    A- When the big hand touches the little hand.

  7. Diogenes,

    A SHORT HISTORY OF MEDICINE: “Doctor, I have an ear ache.”
    2000 B.C. – “Here, eat this root.”
    1000 B.C. – “That root is heathen, say this prayer.”
    1850 A.D. – “That prayer is superstition, drink this potion.”
    1940 A.D. – “That potion is snake oil, swallow this pill.”
    1985 A.D. – “That pill is ineffective, take this antibiotic.”
    2000 A.D. – “That antibiotic is artificial. Here, eat this root!”

  8. The Fischer appointment is brilliant politics for the PM and entirely appropriate to seperate the posts. Of course when Morris Iemma pops up as Ambassador to Canada people may wince.

  9. You’ve spoiled my sequence Finns, I only had to do another 18 repeat posts for the record.

    Well the vibe was generally positive in Sydney. Some whinged but even the cynics I sometimes associate with thought of it as a positive event.

  10. Finns 44,

    Yes I think Catrina wanted me for balance on her rebel site. I had to decline moving into the compound with Charlie and the gang would have been just tooo weird.

  11. ZOOM
    you are rating Yemma as low as Dolly , thats a big call

    Spam Box
    “Most of the Nats I know probably reckon they’re Communists”

    The old Country Pary Leader of McEwen & earlier were ‘socialists’ with there govt controlled Boards pricing of Wheat , wool ets Then the Libs taught them ‘right wing economic rationalism’ ….that killed off the farmers & the Country Party identity

    you didn’t add 2008 AD , obamarotic

  12. ESJ,

    You are seriously saying the residents of Gilligans island approached you as some sort of editorial input guru. Was this before or after the committee of exclusion edict?

    I really don’t understand why William continues the joke of having a link on this site. Without it, they would die in their swill.

  13. ESJ,

    [#748 Jen Says: July 20th, 2008 at 11:38 am – Finns- you’re more than welcome to post the US results on the US thread you know.:)]

    i hate bowling to the second XI. it’s not fair on the punters. they paid to come and see a real contest. so i have to decline on the green lady.

  14. Does anyone here believe that Labor has a 60% 2PP that will hold
    Amigo FINNS , i was offered the position of both moderator and lingo standards

  15. ESJ,

    You are probably already dining out on it, so waht the heck.

    Please exclude names to protect the guilty.

  16. GG
    “Here’s a pretty erudite analysis of the politics of ETS from a regular participant.

    Went through that , a classic divide the Libs and conqer strategy by Rudd on ETS & CC , doesn’t leave the Greens much does it seeing Ruddy presently ” owns” CC ?

  17. #73, Amigo Ronnie, you will be their the prof. Higgins on Gilligan’s Island or the Gulag where the reign of the bland fall mainly on the wasteland. yes, july is the cruelest month.

  18. GG,

    I’ll post it tomorrow night.


    So who is going to be the first to condemn the “Think Climate, Think Change” Government funded advertising campaign?

  19. William

    re Geraldton , asterish , * Seat’s party affiliation has changed following redistribution” perhaps i’m in error in querying this definition , but thought Labor held this & only debate is re redistrib maybe helping the Libs or not

  20. ESJ,

    The Government has a duty to inform the public of their decisions.

    Do you have a problem with this?

  21. ESJ,

    Good to see, you have discovered ironing.


    Lose the bitterness, move on. it’s only a blog site.

  22. yep , see what you’ve done now that i look at the Labor side re your treatment of Darling Range & Bunbury that are currently Libs , but notionally Labour Your way is much beter William , as one can see th ‘as now’ status of seats clearly , rather than who technically holds them Alot of close seats with little margin to change there is !

  23. Herald/Nielsen poll lheadlined Labor’s 54 to 46 lead , and Rudd 65% PPM

    What has not been highlighted in this poll of 1400 people were the CC results , taken since the release of the Green Paper

    77% per cent believe Australia should press ahead and cut its greenhouse gas emissions, IRRESPECTIVE of what other countries do

    68 per cent said they were prepared to pay more for goods & services as a result of emmissions cuts , while 24 per cent were opposed

    60% slightly understood or had no understanding at all of the emissions trading scheme (However, two-thirds still supported introducing a scheme !)

    BUT 54% per cent are satisfied with the way Mr Rudd is handling the matter while 38 per cent are unhappy This latter figure of only 54% satisfation is ‘erodeable’ , and indicates for mine voters do want to see a tangible energy replacement plan Voters understand emmissions have to be cut , therefore emmission generating enrgy usage has to be cut , BUT voters still want the lost energy to be able to use ! they still want to use the products , so where is this lost enegy replacement is what they’ll soon ask ! perhaps implicit in the low 54% figure vs 77% overall CC support

  24. Ron,
    I’d also say there’s a kind of Bradley effect in the 77%. Plenty of people are going to feel they ought to say to the pollster (a stranger) that they support us “doing something” about CC – it’s immoral not to support it, isn’t it?
    But whether the suburbanites will willingly support this with their hip pockets (and their votes), well that’s a different question. They’ll need to be convinced. Over to you, Kevin.

  25. Dyno ,
    take your point , that may mean the 68% supporting paying more for goods & services could also be ‘soft’ ?
    (which is why i’m alittle woried the 54% pro Rudd CC handling is so low)

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