Newspoll: 59-41

Via Peter Brent at Mumble comes the news that Labor’s lead in tomorrow’s Newspoll is up to 59-41 from 57-43 a fortnight ago. More to follow …

UPDATE: The Australian report was apparently up first, which they interestingly seem to be doing a little earlier now.

UPDATE 2: Graphic here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

910 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  1. G.G. at 140. More like completely delusional, and if their performance in QT was anything to go by, completely ineffective.

  2. I hope the PM doesn’t find a wet patch on his chair. It is only during divisions that Nelson will get to sit in the PMs chair. Did anyone notice if Allbull and Nelson had a pushing match to see who’d get to sit there?

  4. Constant Lurker (139) – yes, good point, though I haven’t seen so many Tories perusing these pages lately, so I probably got away with it!

    However, it’s not tactics that will cost the Libs future elections, but policy, and I think that they have yet to fully grasp what an albatross that WorkChoices will be for them over the next few elections.

    The Libs beat Labor over the head with “18% interest rates” for years – they probably won the 2004 election on this theme, even when these rates were actually in place in 1989. That’s 15 years after the fact, which means that WCs could well be toxic for the Right until well into the 2020s.

  5. [The Haneef Affair was an attempt at a “terrorist dog whistling” exercise by the Howard government to try and get themselves re-elected. They’ve successfully used the tactic before, but this time it went horribly right, and for Dr Haneef was cleared.]

    True. But for me, the sad thing is that the whole affair damaged our security agencies, and made them less capable of doing their job of protecting the country.

    Obviously the possibility that that could occur didn’t bother Andrews or Howard.

  6. Kina @ 89-
    The one statement that really made me hate that man was when he said ‘we will decided who comes to Australia and under what conditions they come’ or something like that. Coupling that with his governments failure to attack the racist undertone of Paul Hanson really made me a permanent opponent of the LNP.

    That’s when the Bastard began loosing me too and then solidified my disgust by starting an illegal war. He makes me wish for an afterlife,. One in which cretins get their just deserts.

  8. There is no afterlife MF but there is the here and now and Little Johnny will be suffering each and everyday. The idol he had built in honour of his life (i.e. his reputation as a man of the people and the great economic manager) is being smashed into tiny pieces. He is a man without principle who acted against his fellow Australians by the participation in an illegal war which you rightly point out and his manic hatred of working people. The only value working people served in his universe was that every three years they had an opportunity to vote. Workchoices was mean, nasty legislation that will haunt his party for a generation and beyond.

  9. MayoFeral and Kina @ 89

    The one statement that really made me hate that man was when he said ‘we will decided who comes to Australia and under what conditions they come’ or something like that. Coupling that with his governments failure to attack the racist undertone of Paul Hanson really made me a permanent opponent of the LNP.

    Even though I am a Labor supporter I agree with what Howard said back then,
    What do you want?
    All these forigners comming here who dont asimilate, we will become the minority in this country if we are not careful because of some minorites who want to change our culural identity and way of life will will become out numbered by them soon and will be like a minority in our OWN COIUNTRY

  12. Bushfire Bill at #118
    Please make sure you save the texts of your comments such as that one.
    One day I’m going to request “The Collected Thoughts of Bushfire Bill” and I reckon I won’t be the only person who will want them.

  13. 160,161
    You are very naive
    DO u not know whats happening in France, Belgium the Untied Kingdom and those countries

    The future generation of Australians will pay the price for your naivity

  14. Can I say that I am so chuffed we are back to watching Monday’s Lateline to hear what are the latest Newspoll figures.

    After doing this all last year I thought that I wouldn’t have to do this until next year.

    But here we are writing reams of comment on Bludger again, with the same people and the same arguments….I’ve missed it really.

    My hunch is that Rudd 2008 is a sort of a repeat of Howard 1996. He also had a number of ministers resigning in the first term because of breaches of Ministerial conduct codes etc.

    I feel Nelson is being given a much better treatment that Beazley ever did as first term opposition leader. But then again is my bias. Can’t wait for those narky comments from Fran on Radio National Breakfast again. “Rudd dropped two percentage points, this is disaster for Labor!” Isn’t the ALP policy to wipe the ABC board clean and make it independent a la BBC? I thought that the Janet Albrechtsen/Keith Windschuttle influence would go away once Howard was gone. But it hangs around like those leaky and sneaky farts I make when I hide in the study.

    Granted Rudd has come in when the world economy with inflation pressures, US economy in recession and petrol prices reaching record highs is not in as good shape when Howard was in. He certainly was a lucky bastard.

    I think Rudd hasn’t helped with his school masterish comments about making the public service work harder etc.

    Labor will lose some seats next election. But it would require a disaster of Withlamesque proportions to lose government.

  15. OK I’ll bite.

    Steveo (159) – the issue wasn’t so much about immigration control, it was that our elected government was blatantly pandering to xenophobia to divide the opposition (not only Labor) to win an election. That’s not leadership, that’s pure cynicism. And for what? Immigration is at record highs, and it grew in a big way post-2001 (not that I personally have any problem with that).

    So even if you think that Howard was operating under some cloak of principle way back then, subsequent evidence would suggest that he took people who think the same as you for absolute fools.

  16. [Even though I am a Labor supporter I agree with what Howard said back then,
    What do you want?]

    Um hello, all Governments determine who comes here and who doesn’t. It is called administering the migration act!

    Of course the Howard government couldn’t even do that right. They administered a system that locked up an Australian citizen in immigration detention, and deported another to another country! But don’t worry about that, it only cost tax payers $6.5 million of compensation pay outs, including paying Viviane Solon $4.5 million, and all her medical expenses for the rest of her life.

    So Howard’s base political claim designed to appeal to racist sentiment goes down as nothing more than another broken promise.

  17. Hugo

    Yes I quess you have a point in regards that Howard did have high imigration levels

    I just wish both Labor and Liberal would stop letting these people in to our country when no one wants them here
    They hate our culture, way of life, they only mix with each other, why cant we only allow people who can speak in English in here
    I mean what use is it to let people here who cant even talk?
    No one wants them here yet we the Australian people dont have a choice because its policy of both the political parties

  19. Ooooo lookout the dreaded them are invading – hide your wallets and lock up your daughters.

    The vast majority of Australians are immigrants, I think the last census showed over 22% are born overseas.

    But its OK as long as they are not “Them”. 🙁

  20. ShowsOn

    I wasnt refering to those individual cases that you mentioned
    I didnt even think about them when I was making the post yes he was wrong with Corneilla or whatever her name was

    But thats a different issue all together and I wasnt talking about that

  21. Actually Howard was only stating what was fact when he said something like ‘we will decided who comes to Australia and under what conditions they come’.

    We do control our own immigration program and we also have international obligations that we adhere to. The detention centers, Tampa and so forth were simply devices for running a xenophobic ticket.

    The format of the statement I believe he stole from Pauline Hanson but I don’t recall exactly how she used it.

    My problem with Howard is that he was using the statement and environment of the time to evoke racist fear in people. Appealing to the lowest demoninator. Prepared to demonise and punish harmless people for the sake of political gain.

    As it turned out Howard I believe was increasing immigration whilst making it appear he was ‘protecting’ Australia from being over-run by others not like us.

  22. [Yes I quess you have a point in regards that Howard did have high imigration levels]

    The Howard government rightly moved to the highest levels in the history of the federation. They will only be surpassed by the coming years. Of course they didn’t talk much about that. Instead they made people think they had a more restrictive immigration programme when they didn’t. It fooled a few suckers though…

    [I just wish both Labor and Liberal would stop letting these people in to our country when no one wants them here]

    You mean like me? Both my parents are migrants thank you very much.

    [They hate our culture, way of life, they only mix with each other, why cant we only allow people who can speak in English in here]

    Thanks very much. One of my parents couldn’t speak English before she came here. She can speak, read, and write english now. Does that mean she is allowed to stay? Oh, she also happens to be an Australian citizen. Does that mean she can stay, or should she be deported like Vivian Solon?

    [No one wants them here yet we the Australian people dont have a choice because its policy of both the political parties]

    Get over yourself. We are a nation of migrants. Even the Aboriginals probably came here from Asia via Africa. The First Fleet came from the U.K., the 1950s boom was created by European migration. You can’t talk about Australian history without talking about people from other parts of the world coming over here in search of a better life.

  23. [But thats a different issue all together and I wasnt talking about that]

    It is not a different issue. Our immigration system in the 1980s was cleaned out of all the bribes and sleaze and pay offs. Robert Ray fixed it so people got to come here based on merit. But the Howard government put the sleaze back in, while suckers thought they actually knew what they were doing on immigration matters. The cases of Cornelia Rau and Vivian Solon demonstrate they had no idea what they were doing.

  25. steveo at 159. I don’t know where you live, however, I live and work in the Western suburbs of Melbourne, where we have people from all over the world who rub along together quite well. A culture is not a static, homogenous thing. It changes over time in response to many influences. My immediate work group has Skips, Irish, New Zealanders, Indians, Iraquis, Vietnamese, Sri Lankans, second generation Italians and Greeks. You have no idea how stimulating it is to be able to work with such an amazing range of people, with such extraordinary stories of themselves, their families, their countries and cultures. We have fantastic lunches once a month, when we’ll all cook food from the different cuisines, tell jokes and generally have a pretty good time together. Acclimatisation to a host culture takes time and happens at different rates depending on a range of factors, certainly one of which is how open the host culture is to getting to know and understand those new to the country. BTW, what do you think the Aborigines might think about the British and Irish readiness to assimilate?

  28. ShowsOn
    No your mother doesnt need to go back to where she come from
    But look times change and NO ONE today should come here unless they can speak in English

    Your mother probably came here with all good intentions to learn English back in the day

    But alot of people comming here today possably from different ethnic groups that you mother is from have no intention what so ever to asimilate or learn English they only want to speak in their own forign languages and only stick with their own ethnic/cultural groups this creates tenisons in society, look at the Cronulla riots in 05 when us Australian finally fought back years of harasment and intimidation to show we are not scared of these bastards who hate us for nothing

    Do you see the point I am trying to make?

  29. apres

    YES as far as I am concerned people who live here who CAN NOT speak in ENGLISH
    and I am not refering to people who are bilingual)

    are MUTE absolutly 100 percent

    The language in this country in ENGLISH so if they cant speak in ENGLISH they CAN NOT TALK

  30. Steveo, given that our economy is based on growth and without growth we go down the gurgler, how do you propose we continue growing with our meagre population without immigration? We have a skills shortage NOW. Employers are struggling to find employees NOW. What’s the answer?

  31. Steveo

    Often the first generation of an ethnic people tend to stick together and learn little English. However, their kids assimilate pretty well. But if we treat them as second class then even the kids will stay in their ghettos.

    A lot of the first generation Italians and Greeks still don’t speak English too well, but they made a bloody big contribution to Australia.

    I can’t even believe we are debating this!

  32. neophyte, depends on what your qualifications are. steveo, I think the Cronulla riots were as much about the resentment that grows from marginalisation as anything else, that and xenophobic reactions being stirred up by the likes of shock jocks such as Alan Jones. There were fears something similar might happen in Melbourne, and some attempts by the local shock jock equivalents of Jones, but equally, there were people such as Jon Faine (local ABC) who took a lead in opening up publicly aired forums which fostered discussion and exploration of both difference and sameness. There was also a lot of leadership from different Muslims from different backgrounds as well as others that actively pulled the teeth of any set up of them and us.

  35. Gary Bruce

    Look I am not against imigration at all I think we should have big imigration levels but only people who can speak English and if they are from a country who culture is different from ours are willing to leave that culture behind and adapt to Australian culture

    I dont want to bring people in here from certain Religous groups whos way of life and way of thinking is so different from ours and their culture doesnt meld in with ours, they want their women hidden behind rags I mean dont exept that in our country, thats not Australian culture or Australian values,

    I mean why risk putting our country at risk with bringing religious groups here that are so full of hate when we can just let other people in who we know will asimilate like British, Europeans, Some Asians etc

    tjis is our country we have to stop being politically corrct if the Majority of Australians dont want muslim imigartion here then then thats what should happen

  36. [look at the Cronulla riots in 05 when us Australian finally fought back years of harasment and intimidation to show we are not scared of these bastards who hate us for nothing]

    What do you mean “us Australians”? Us Australians includes people born here, but also people born overseas like my parents who came here with their parents because they thought their families would have a better chance at a good life here. Us Australians means people who took out citizenship today.

    [look at the Cronulla riots in 05 when us Australian finally fought back years of harasment and intimidation to show we are not scared of these bastards who hate us for nothing]

    I have absolutely no sympathy for people on either side of the Cronulla riots. They are all thugs who reverted to violence because they didn’t have the intellectual capacity to argue a political position using words and ideas. The ‘Australians’ were abusing the flag in service of racists sentiment. The Lebanese who carried out revenge attacks against people and property are just as bad, but no worse.

    Moreover, the ‘Australians’ in the Cronulla riots were rioting against people who spoke English. So that ruins your argument that this is about language skills.

    I agree with you that migrants should have basic English skills so that they can integrate into the community, and have a good chance of getting stable employment. Guess what! The Government provides free English lessons to all migrants. That is part of administering the migration act.

    You are making a mistake that provided migrants have english skills everything will be OK for them. Migrating to another country is an inherent disruption that some migrants never fully recover from.

    [The language in this country in ENGLISH so if they cant speak in ENGLISH they CAN NOT TALK]

    What? They can’t even talk to each other in their first langage? You’re being absurd. You are simplifying this issue to the point of ridiculousness.

  37. All I can hope for is that the “Not one of us” argument is relegated to the garbage bin of history.

    I have lived in 19 different countries and I can assure Steveo that the vast majority of people are exactly the same – they want the same things – they want a peaceful life and to see their kids prosper.

    Howard increased immigration levels to record numbers at the same time he slashed funding for english language courses for migrants.

  38. gusface

    I am not racist

    I dont care what race someone is

    I only care that they asimilate into our country

    I hate Multiculturalism

    These people should adapt to our culture as this is our county

    All u left wingers/bleeding heart whinge at people like me for trying to protect our Australian values

    DO u know what would would happen in some of those Arab countries if we went over there and not asimilatied into their way of life, we wouldnt even have the option of being Christian

    But I never hear u lefties whinge and complain about that, i wonder why?

  39. [Look I am not against imigration at all I think we should have big imigration levels but only people who can speak English and if they are from a country who culture is different from ours are willing to leave that culture behind and adapt to Australian culture]

    How is this different to what we currently do? You are arguing against nothing.

    [I dont want to bring people in here from certain Religous groups whos way of life and way of thinking is so different from ours and their culture doesnt meld in with ours,]

    Hang on a second. Our constitution has a freedom of religion clause. Do you honestly think the Government should be able to force people to follow particular religions? That doesn’t sound particularly democratic.

    [tjis is our country we have to stop being politically corrct if the Majority of Australians dont want muslim imigartion here then then thats what should happen]

    Oh, so now you write what you really mean. You are against Muslims coming here! Well at least you have the guts to say it.

    I’ve got a better idea. We shouldn’t judge people based on their religion, but on the merits of their characters.

  40. Steveo, Do you know anything about the history of migration to Australia? The Chinese on the goldfields in Victoria, the Pacific Islanders captured to work on the canefields in Queensland, the Sikhs to work the farms of the middle NSW coast, the displaced persons from WW2, the Afghanis to provide camel trains across the desert in the NT, the Vietnamese from the Vietnam War? BTW, many Aboriginal people in remote communities don’t speak English.
    What I’m suggesting is that migration is rather a complex area, and we also have obligations under international treaties in relation to refugees. That some migrants become marginalised, resentful and angry, whether in Sydney or France, might prompt some questioning of why this should be the case, rather than simply accepting “they” don’t like “us”, whoever, “us” are.

  43. Hey Steveo be careful who you call a left winger. You don’t have to be aleft winger to disagree with you. Hell, the Libs disagree with your view.

  44. ShowsOn

    What do you mean “us Australians”? Us Australians includes people born here, but also people born overseas like my parents

    well thats a good point u raise because thats anothing thing that pisses me off these people who were born here dont want to be considered to be
    AUSTRLIAN
    they want to be LEBS OR LEBANESE

    and that upsets me

    I mean why is it that people who arent of british or Irish decent usually dont call themselves Australian?

    you talk to a Leb he will always call himself a Leb never Australian,

    I mean you will never hear an Anglo Australian who was born here say Im British or I am Irish

    I dont know why I have always wondered this can someone explain to me why this is the case?

  46. [I mean why is it that people who arent of british or Irish decent usually dont call themselves Australian?]

    You are simplifying the issue too much.

    People can identify as being from more than one country. My mum has been here most of her life, but if you asked her she would say she was BOTH Greek and Australian. You can be more than one thing because people are COMPLICATED, and have multiple allegiances. It doesn’t make them any less Australian if that bothers you.

    The problem is you have killed your argument. First you say this is about English skills, then you say it is about religious affiliation. Now you say it is about a state of mind, about what national allegiance people think they have.

    You don’t have an argument left, because you’ve bogged yourself down with racism and religious hatred.

    [I mean you will never hear an Anglo Australian who was born here say Im British or I am Irish]

    Yes. My Dad. He was born in England, but lived here for about 45 years before becoming an Australian citizen. He only did that so he could get a job in the public service.

    Personally I thing that was absurd, and would’ve thought that after that much time he would’ve done it on his own accord, but he obviously didn’t think it was that important.

    Incidentally, he was able to vote in elections because he was a British subject. I would be more than happy to take that right away, in my opinion only Australian citizens should have the right to vote.

    But I guess it is OK with you for him to stay in Australia because he can speak English, and isn’t a Muslim.

  47. SHOWSON

    [Look I am not against imigration at all I think we should have big imigration levels but only people who can speak English and if they are from a country who culture is different from ours are willing to leave that culture behind and adapt to Australian culture]

    How is this different to what we currently do? You are arguing against nothing.

    **Well then why are there so many people who cant speak in English allowed to come here ? and they dont leave their culture behind they bring islam or what ever it may be here with them

    [I dont want to bring people in here from certain Religous groups whos way of life and way of thinking is so different from ours and their culture doesnt meld in with ours,]

    Hang on a second. Our constitution has a freedom of religion clause. Do you honestly think the Government should be able to force people to follow particular religions? That doesn’t sound particularly democratic.

    **I dont care about that If the majority of Australians don’t want them here then thats what should happen
    I never said the government should force particular religion onto anyone, when did I say that? I am athiest but I acept this is a Christian country
    Well it is democratic I can tell you because the MAJORITY OF AUSTRALIANS DO NOT WANT MUSLIMS HERE

    [tjis is our country we have to stop being politically corrct if the Majority of Australians dont want muslim imigartion here then then thats what should happen]

    Oh, so now you write what you really mean. You are against Muslims coming here! Well at least you have the guts to say it.

    I’ve got a better idea. We shouldn’t judge people based on their religion, but on the merits of their characters.

    **Yes I know not all muslims arent bad

    But its like saying this, Ill make a comparison

    *there is one brand of eggs that u know on average there will be 1 bad egg out of 12
    *and another brand of eggs where u know there will be 5 or 6 bad eggs out of the 12

    What brand of eggs will you buy ?
    Or which bad eggs are you going to let into the country Does that make it a bit easier for u to understand?

  48. Steveo Says:
    June 17th, 2008 at 5:49 pm

    I hate Multiculturalism

    Well Steveo I hate people who hate multiculturalism, and i bet you don’t care.

    What do you like? Red necks driving Utes perhaps.

  49. Steveo, I’d give it up if I were you. You’ve well and truly painted yourself into a corner. You did not reply to my question about whether you know anything about the history of migration in Australia, so I’ll assume you don’t, and suggest you would be doing yourself a favour if you actually made an effort to learn some.

  50. Harry @ 174

    I’ve lived in this wonderful country for 45 years (from the UK) and became a citizen ages ago but I’ve never heard of “skips”. Where do they come from?

    btw it does sound a great place to work!
    Cheers.

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