Via Peter Brent at Mumble comes the news that Labor’s lead in tomorrow’s Newspoll is up to 59-41 from 57-43 a fortnight ago. More to follow …
UPDATE: The Australian report was apparently up first, which they interestingly seem to be doing a little earlier now.
UPDATE 2: Graphic here.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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Fair enough.
I think Gillard handled the Belinda Neal stuff beautifully. And I don’t think there is any merit in ‘sacking’ Neal – strong censure is about all that can be done, and it has.
It will be interesting to see how the new Senate plays out – should make for interesting machinations.
It would seem that the tacticians have decided that the Government should consistently guide answers to questions to the high ground. The tactic avoids descending into what Rudd yesterday described as sheap tabloid politics.
Judging from Newspoll it works.
Is that “sheep” of “cheap” BK? Either way you’re right.
Gary 104 – should be “cheap”. But you are right!
Gotta love Piers, he bites every time.
From me to our friend –
Piers,
“When every other journalist was panting after Rudd I believe I said he was a fraud.”
I guess not even your inane ramblings can dent Rudd’s “honeymoon”, given today’s Newspoll.
I think we really know who the fraud is and he works for the Daily Terror.
Have a happy day Piers,
Gary Bruce
His reply –
I am having a happy day, happier for your foolishness.
I reckon that, despite his bravado, Pies has had a bad day every day since Kev took over as leader of the ALP.
Dreams of a glorious thousand-year Howardreich shattered.
More of the same, as has been the case since January last year.
It’s been interesting watching the Libs this year. For mine, they have the air of the ALP 1996-2001 (though a more extreme version). Labor, along with many on the Left (including me), just couldn’t appreciate that Howard actually won elections – I mean we could see right through him, and surely it was only a matter of time before the public did also. Witness the rationalisations of JWH’s first few election wins: 1996, he won just because he wasn’t Keating; 1998, he lost the popular vote; 2001, he relied on racism to scare people into voting for him. It wasn’t until after 2004 when the Left started to appreciate that Howard, however inexplicably, was actually NOT hated out there in Voterland, and in fact, most people quite liked and respected him. It was only after Labor and the Left accepted this that they were able to defeat him.
Now look at the Libs today. Every Tory I know (not many, I’ll grant you, but a few) and hear obviously feels that “Rudd is a phony”, and it is only a matter of time until the public figures that out – hence the ridiculous stunts and point-scoring. All it will take is just the right stunt and the right time and voters will see Rudd for the phony he is. In thinking this, the Libs are making the same error as the ALP did – that of underestimating their opponent. Until they get over this conceit – that putting Labor in office was a mistake that should be rectified at the first possible opportunity – they will remain an irrelevance.
108
Hugo
Interesting idea. Certainly the opposition need to stop playing the man and start going in for the hard ball i.e. develop and sell some serious policies that can win over the electorate. The problem for them is that going in for the hard ball takes far more courage than sniping their opponents off the ball. They haven’t won the hard ball for many years now and I don’t think they have the courage to do so. Sniping is all they know and the public will not accept it.
Hugo,
So true. It’s the natural fault of new oppositions. We were a good government, the people will see how good we were eventually, when we prove that all the things we were saying about the new guy are true.
The Libs have to realise that people like Rudd. When you keep attacking someone that they like, they identify more strongly with him. The attacks are so counter-productive.
The story with Howard was similar. Despised as he was (and shall remain) by Labor partisans, most voters while they didn’t want him to be their best mate, they respected him and they were far from hating him. Labor really didn’t make any ground until they stopped using “Howard Hater” rhetoric to try and score points with the general public.
I think it’s a mistake made by all pollies and the political media as well. They can’t help but assume that everyone out there in voterland is paying as much attention to the daily cut and thrust as they are. It is why they seize on perceived gaffes and why the media is always talking about crises for one side or the other.
The simple truth is that the people who decide elections in this country aren’t paying much attention for the next 2 and a half years.
abc Online News site main story
photo of Neal with big headline
“Opposition to pursue Neal over ‘demon’ remarks”
I’ll probably be called a knucklehead again but bugger me if that’s the top newstory of the day I’ll switch to One Nation (joking)
If Libs had gained ground and Nelson improved PPM in newspoll that would have been the headline story of course!
Hugo @ 108 said:
And also until they are reconciled to the fact that the Australian public actually wanted to see some spending on infrastructure, health,education, childcare…etc,something that the previous govt under John Howard didn’t do to the satisfaction of the voting public.
How much of the increase in Labor figures is due to a lot of people realising that the Fibs are going to make them keep paying the Medicare levy? Nice tax cut removed by the Fibs? Stupid politics
Pursuing a personal attack on an obscure person who has no government position, the public knows nothing about and cares even less is quite pointless. Rudd has already dealt with it in the public eye with anger management advice.
The issue just doesn’t get into the mind of people. The Opposition’s attack seems to be about someone who argued with someone else and someone who said some rude words to someone else. Who is gonna care really?
It just helps Labor replace her with someone else come the next election.
Also the Opposition in making a major issue over a minor thing gives the impression they a small minded party. Shaking their fists in the crowd but actually not on the ground playing.
They have nothing else?
It is VERY difficult for an opposition to make significant gains in its popularity after being tossed out of government less than a year ago.
I suspect, however, that the opposition realize this but are trying to throw any mud, hoping to at least take the shine off the government so that when a real issue comes along, people will have less faith in them. Parts of the MSM are also playing into this game, especially from News Ltd.
It’s basically a progression from the game played with all the smear campaigns after Rudd took over Labor’s leadership back in Dec. 2006.
But it’s a LOSING game. And there are two simple reasons:
1) It assumes people are actively listening. They’re not.
2) It assumes people are dumb enough not to see the tactics when they are paying attention. They aren’t as dumb as the opposition and MSM think and they now look for the tactic, especially after 11 years of Howard where policy and partisan politics were merged more than ever before and where the MSM hailed Howard’s every move as a political “masterstroke”.
In 2008, people are politically jaded. The more a politician or party is seen to be trying to score political points or indulging in gutter level politics, the more likely it is to backfire on them and therefore help the other side.
The sooner the coalition and the MSM realise this, the sooner we have a real competition on our hands. But as long as they keep making the above assumptions, Labor will be in power for a LONG time, because Labor seem to understand today’s politics a LOT better, which is why they are in power everywhere with no signs of losing any time soon. The coalition is WAY out of touch, not just in terms of policy, but in terms of politics.
Noocat,
I agree that it is very difficult for Oppositions to make inroads against the incumbent Government and especially a new one. To me Opposition is being the turnkey with a thousand keys only one of which opens the magic door called “Government”.
So they have to try each and every key individually, hoping it will be the one that clicks in the lock and lets them in. Now a smart Opposition might try and sort the keys before they try them in order to stop wasting time. (develop policy)Unfortunately, Brendan and the Libs haven’t twigged so we see this daily procession of another dud key being tried. Seems the next trick is to find another turnkey. Obviously, the Brendan one hasn’t got the strngth in his wrists.
For those interested, the key that got Labor through the door was Workchoices. There is some speculation about whether Howard acyually unlocked the door for them.
This will infuriate the opposition. What they have tried to defend more than anything else since the election is their reputation (in their own minds) that they were brilliant economic managers. The RBA has given them a serious kick to the goolies:
http://business.theage.com.au/economy-under-control-rba-20080617-2rxy.html
Economy under control: RBA
quote…
In the minutes from the June meeting, the RBA said the surplus, as a ratio of GDP, was higher than expected and should not add to the demand forces in the Australian economy.
The Australian dollar dropped from 94.34 US cents just before the minutes were released, to 94.10 US cents.
For homeowners, the interest rate cycle could be nearing an end as the RBA emphasised the current interest rate of 7.25% could be cooling the economy by the degree needed to harness inflation.
The budget stance is a turnaround from recent years, when the Coalition budgets were questioned by the bank’s governors for creating fresh stimulus to the economy via generous tax cuts….
end quote
OK Mr Allbull – put that in your pipe and smoke it. Question time should be fun this arvo.
The Libs are like a jilted lover who just can’t accept that it’s over.
Flowers don’t work. Banners saying “I’ll always love you” on tollway overpasses don’t work. Reminders of how good the sex was – once upon a time – are a positive turn-off. Comparisons between the jilted lover and the new lover fail miserably. Reminders of happy weekends away in the Hunter Valley or the Gold Coast fall on deaf ears. Remonstrations that “I won’t bash you ever again” or “I’ll change, I really will!” or (even worse) “I’m the only man who understands you,” sink like lead balloons.
The only thing to do, at least in matters of the heart, is move on and get another lover who’s not awake up to your faults, or who even likes them. Only problem is that there ARE no other lovers. The Libs have only got the same voters to woo, and try to re-woo.
To get the old girlfriend back again you have to reform yourself, give up the booze, stop thinking you’re always right, case and desist with the nostalgic flashbacks, stop swearing on a stack of bibles you’d do it all over again the same way, admit your failings and stop calling her a deranged idiot for dropping you in the first place. Oh yeah, and stop slagging off the new boyfriend for being an intellectual nob who isn’t a loudmouth bully witha lot of rich mates, like you are. That’s why she likes him, you drongo.
Then, and only then, will you have a chance of winning her back.
Noocat wrote (#114): “In 2008, people are politically jaded. The more a politician or party is seen to be trying to score political points or indulging in gutter level politics, the more likely it is to backfire on them and therefore help the other side.”
Yes, this is spot-on. This was Keating’s mistake, and I suspect if the Opposition chooses Costello as leader, it might even get worse for them. Sure, Costello is articulate and quick on his feet, and unlike Nelson he actually knows what he stands for; but his performances on the floor of Parliament as Treasurer were cutting and sometimes a little nasty. People have had enough. The Rudd government has opted for the iron-fist-in-the-velvet-glove approach, and it seems to be working (so far).
115
Greensborough Growler
But GG some of the keys open doors that lead to nowhere except a fall into hot oil and the like. Those opposition idiots burst through each door and rush forward without properly evaluatiing if it’s safe to proceed.
I hope they keep it up as it’s a laugh a minute.
A disturbing trait of Turnbull is that if he doesn’t like the message he will attempt denigrate the messenger – i.e. the RBA and the Head of Treasury and the head of ACCC. The people they appointed.
It is not a good thing to undermine these institutions, the ones independent of government and in which we want the community to have confidence.
The Telegraph? or Hun? ran some very personal front page attacks on the RBA governor in order to help the LNP along.
vera, the ABC headlines are no longer a surprise. i have accepted that its good for them to attack Labor so Nelson stays and the Libs dont change their policies or come up with new ones
by the way, didnt neal refer to sophie mirabella’s baby as a demon? is there a problem with that??
96
The Piping Shrike Says:
Gillard spear-headed this attack on Neal. Why do people always underestimate her? She is one of the sharpest operators in the ALP.
Agree. Anybody who underestimates Gillard’s political and people skills (take note, Tony Abbott,) does so at their own peril. She is well on track to becoming Australia’s first female PM in her own right.
115
GG, a great analogy! Spot on.
It’s funny how yesterday, with the ACN poll, we were being told Nelson was making an impact with his 5c of BS and today, because of Newspoll, we’re being told he has failed to take advantage of the petrol issue. Which is it? The MSM are like a wind vane, they move which ever way the wind is blowing.
Steve K, youre right, the opposition have no set strategy. They seem to overreact and get hysterical over everything. They are obviously not following Rudd’s opposition tactic which was to choose your battles, and come up some key alternative policies
“I suspect if the Opposition chooses Costello as leader, it might even get worse for them.”
It would be a disaster for them, not just because of Costello’s offensive personal style but because he is so utterly identified with WorkChoices.
121
Andrew Says:
by the way, didnt neal refer to sophie mirabella’s baby as a demon? is there a problem with that??
Neal’s comments were both political idiocy (I mean, giving a free kick to Sophie Mirabella, how dumb is that?), and unethical. She deserves everything she gets over this one, including disendorsment. Rudd and Gillard are handling this well so far.
117
BB, in that case, the Libs have a helluva lot of reforming to do, which of course they won’t do as long as the MSM play into their games and continue giving them false hope of actually getting somewhere.
The fuel price issue is case study on Nelson and Co.
It is obvious to all that international forces control the price and all expect prices to keep increasing. We are all resigned to a high cost of fuel. They must be aware that government has little it can do over fuel prices and, that playing with excise just ruins revenue meaning they will either have to increase taxes or cut services.
What an opportunity for them this must be. On this issue they can release a Energy Security policy, affordable Mass Transport infrastructure policy, Fuel efficiency car policy, Alternate Energy policy, Emergency relief policy and whatever else you can think of related to oil and energy.
So what did we get? Cut excise by 5c whereupon the price of fuel went up another 15c.
Do you think I might have upset Kerry – Anne?
Kerry-Anne,
I guess you’re going to have reconsider your thoughts about Rudd’s honeymoon being over, at this point in tme, given today’s Newspoll.
Regards,
Gary Bruce
I never said his honeymoon was over, Gary. Not on the Inisders or on/in any other column, program, radio interview or news story. If you’re going to criticise, at the very least get your facts straight.
As for your previous email, I am not part of some pack. You have no knowledge of my 25 years of media reporting. You obviously don’t read anything I write in The Sun-Herald, or say on Sky or in radio commentary. If you knew anybody in politics or the media – which you clearly don’t – you would get a different view of my reputation than the one you clearly hold, after seeing me for a few minutes on one program.
Kindly go and bug someone else.
Kerry-Anne Walsh
Just Me,
Juvenile and puerile are the words that come to mind. Also, what has Mrrabella’s child done to be cast as a demon?
However, Mirrabella has form. She accused those on her own side as being terrorists for not supporting tougher Terrorist Laws and she is not above deriding others personally.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdxoor0DyUE
does anyone know why the OO on line has no mention of the poll except for Shanahans sort of grudging blog, or a link to the graph, if it wasnt for this site and a few other knowledgable ones we would have no way of knowing all of the poll’s findings— are they trying to hide something ??????
GG 131
No argument there.
That is what I meant by political idiocy. In attacking Mirabella over her impending motherhood it gave her a rare opportunity to take the high moral ground and come out looking like good, which does take some doing in Mirabella’s case, given her odious track record. Mirabella has plenty of things she could be fairly attacked over, picking her unborn and her fitness as a mother was well and truly crossing the tactical and ethical line.
When you add in the Iguana nonsense, well, if I was a senior Labor politician I would not want the sort of political liability Neal is in my party either. She has largely blown her political career before it even really got started.
“Dwarf star no longer shines in pub” is the Breaking News headline. Can’t be talking about the Poisoned Dwarf, that’s where he shines brightest and often.
Landeryou has posted this update on the Mcewen situation.
http://www.starnewsgroup.com.au/story/60016#
Swan is wiping the floor of parlaiment with Bishop and Allbull. He’s got his question time performance sorted out and has become a very good performer. I can now see why the party had the confidence in him to deliver the goods.
Steve K: 117
Happened to listen to ABC Midday Report whilst on the road. Their reportage of the RBA report had an added comment implying that whilst the RBA gave it a thumbs up it was only half-hearted thumbs up.
BB: 118
You beaut!
Hugo at 108 – love your analysis, but I wish you would keep it to yourself. The Libs might learn something from you! I’m sad to give them such a free kick.
How’s this for chutzpah?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/17/2277332.htm?section=justin
Is that the same type of address Howard gave to the party saying they will be annihilated. At the time it was a blatant device to affect the voter and, its only purpose.
Mr Rudd has probably broken the record as most approved of party leader for the longest time and Nelson reckons that ‘voters are no longer starry-eyed about Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’.
Well that can only mean that Rudd’s figures are so high because people have seen ‘through’ him and worked out that he is exactly what they want.
Hockey is at it again in QT. He has moved a motion of dissent againt the spreaker. How many more times will the Libs spit the dummy?
GG, Nelson really has lost the plot. I guess he’ll say and do anything to divert attention from his standing in the polls.
While Hockey fumes the government members walk out. Too funny for words. Ol’ Joe is about to suffer a fizzer.
[GG, Nelson really has lost the plot. I guess he’ll say and do anything to divert attention from his standing in the polls.]
Can I point out that Nelson is killing himself off. He isn’t asking nearly enough questions in Question Time. I can remember when Labor was in the doldrums after the 1998 election that Beazley would ask every second opposition question. Sometimes he would ask three questions in a row to various ministers.
On another matter, Howard’s department was directly involved in the Haneef affair. Which suggests Howard instructed Andrews to cancel the Visa, which he said he didn’t do.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23878434-5005962,00.html
Intersting news from the Haneef CAAT inquiry. Appears honest John might have been involved up to his elbows. Who’d a thunk?
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23878434-5005961,00.html
Shows On,
snap!
The Haneef Affair was an attempt at a “terrorist dog whistling” exercise by the Howard government to try and get themselves re-elected. They’ve successfully used the tactic before, but this time it went horribly right, and for Dr Haneef was cleared.
Home from work today and watched QT. I particularly liked the cuts to the Smirk, who, his smirking days behind him, was so obviously, totally and thoroughly miserable. Took my mind right off feeling crook. It must be a special kind of hell for him to be taunted on his so-called economic credentials from the gov’t. benches. The gov’t. are clearly having a whale of a time.
That was a big problem during his campaign – people were suspicious that everything might be trick. The Intervention people saw as an election ploy, the same with Haneef. Howard’s reputation came back to make him impotent.