Newspoll: 59-41

Via Peter Brent at Mumble comes the news that Labor’s lead in tomorrow’s Newspoll is up to 59-41 from 57-43 a fortnight ago. More to follow …

UPDATE: The Australian report was apparently up first, which they interestingly seem to be doing a little earlier now.

UPDATE 2: Graphic here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

910 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  1. So, Poss, perhaps a bit of a look at the demographic that’s moving between the ALP and the Greens?

  2. Poss

    I know sampling methods tend to overstate (city based) inor parties and understate the Nationals, but at what point can we say that clearly the Greens have more support than teh Nationals? Surely their long term slide is terminal?

  4. Will this poll prompt Nelson to ask questions other than about petrol prices in parliament tomorrow? Maybe he could ask the Prime Minister what we are going to do in 50 years when nearly all the world’s oil has been used.

  5. The Greens have had more support than the Nats for a fairly long time – the problem for the Greens is that their support is spread thinly across nearly every seat, whereas the Nats support is clustered into a handful of seats.

    Votes without seats are just votes. (with the obligatory two dollars something or other attached – what was it for the 07 election anyone?)

    Hence the Greens never being paid much attention to.

  6. The Greens will be in the spotlight come July and will be held accountable for the decicions they make in the senate. If they try flexing their muscles by blocking bills or having inquires into everything so the government is unable to govern propery their support may not continue to power on.

  10. Frank, the most interesting moment on ABC news tonight, and a cathartic experience for Aunty, was the question put by their new, attractive newsreader, Karina somebody, to Peter Kennedy. I am not quoting her word for word but the gist of what she asked was ” Peter Kennedy, you have been a political reporter in Western Australia for over thirty years. In your experience have you ever come across a more disfunctional opposition?”.

    Beautiful question, and one the likes of which no one in the ABC has had the coyones to ask in WA for a long time. The strangling grip of head office is surely being released.

    To address your question,I think the local Libs have belatedly, after a long delusional belief that eight years of Labor was a temporary abberation, come to the realisation that bluster, bulldust and a compliant and favourable press is not enough. They need policies which go beyond a redneck response to the latest daily garbage spewed out in the West or on 6PR, and they need a leader, not a muppet.

    Rob Johnston spitting the dummy, and Fels plaintive cry of “give us a leader, any leader instead of the caricature we have now” is symptomatic of this new found and desperate desire for political relevance and credibility.

    Too little, too late for this election though…

  11. [Frank, the most interesting moment on ABC news tonight, and a cathartic experience for Aunty, was the question put by their new, attractive newsreader, Karina somebody, to Peter Kennedy. I am not quoting her word for word but the gist of what she asked was ” Peter Kennedy, you have been a political reporter in Western Australia for over thirty years. In your experience have you ever come across a more disfunctional opposition?”.

    Beautiful question, and one the likes of which no one in the ABC has had the coyones to ask in WA for a long time. The strangling grip of head office is surely being released.]

    Yep, it was an amazing question, and no doubt Karina Kavalia (sp) will be summoned to Kim Jordan’s office in the morning and will be “counselled” 🙂 Mind you, this Newsreader is an improvement on the last few they have had, and she actually has 2 brain cells to rub together.

  12. yes the new ABC perth newsreader is one hot chick. She worked for the BBC, her brother is in oxford… you get the drift…

    and as for the polling

    hehaheahehaheahehaeh

  13. KEVIN Rudd’s honeymoon with Australian voters is not yet over,…

    This honeymoon has lasted longer than some marriages.

  15. When is a honeymoon not a honeymoon? It is silly to call more than 12 months of high ratings a honeymoon as though it were a popularity founded on novelty. Obviously there is more than novelty going on here, people must be seeing Rudd Labor as what they want most because he represents what they believe and want.

    The MSM both before and after the election have tried to smear and undermine Rudd and Labor and yet they have maintained high ratings though now unsurprisingly beginning to fade. Just how high would these have been had the MSM been simply even handed on the issues and their representation of the govt position.

    They have tried just about every trick to smear Rudd’s lofty position, even trying to praise Gillard as Rudd’s superior.

    Why not, instead of talking about honeymoons, talk about what it is people prefer about Rudd and Labor? You would think the Liberal’s answers will be found in asking these questions – not the automatic gain say of anything Labor says.

  18. Kina at #24:

    either way Nelson is damaging the brand

    Far be it for me to carry the can for Brenda, but I don’t think he alone is to blame for damaging the Liberal brand. The damage was done by all of them, collectively, during their last term.

    What a set of lousy buggers to cut pay and conditions during the longest uninterrupted boom in Australia’s history.

    A blatant, unmandated attack on people’s pay packets is not the sort of thing you would expect people to forget (or forgive) for a long time. How can they live this down?

    So I ascribe most of the blame to Howard, Andrews, Hockey, Costello, Andrews, and, yes, Nelson, for digging the hole into which they were dumped on 24 November.

    Of course Nelson’s approach since then hasn’t helped either LOL.

  19. I know I’ll face derision in saying this, but the LNP primary number in this poll seems to be out of whack, I think this poll is a bit wobbly.

    Which is easier to believe:

    Four primary points of L-NP vote has shifted to ALP and the ALP has lost four other primary points to the Greens/others, all in the last fortnight

    OR

    This fortnight’s polling was out of whack?

  22. Mr Squiggle,
    Another way of looking at it is the trends projected in Possum’s site (links at 3 and 47 above). There has been a slight trend to the LNP on 2PP since the start of the year, a trend away from Labor on primaries, and a trend (perhaps now stalled) to LNP on primaries.
    What does this mean? My guess would be that it means nothing more than some fairly rusted-on LNP voters, who’d never actually vote against the LNP in an election, returning to the fold after flirting with Rudd during the 3-4 months’ polling that immediately followed the election. In other words, the Libs are still miles behind, and would lose quite a few seats in an election held now, but reports of their impending extinction were premature.
    No real surprise there.
    For this mild trend to turn into something significant that actually means the next election is a contest, I’d imagine two things have to happen:
    – a recession here in Australia (heaven forbid)
    – a change in Liberal leader (surely only a matter of time).

  23. The good thing about this poll is that we may have heard the last of the 5c reduction in petrol excise and the opposition to ‘Fuelwatch’

  24. According to Michelle Grattan on Radio National this morning:

    1. This poll is a disappointing one for “Mr 13%”
    2. Rudd has hung Belinda Neal out to dry!

    Newspoll may be an outlier, but where is the evidence that the public is as disenchanted with Rudd as the MSM would like us to think?

  25. Hanging Belinda Neal out to dry won’t lose Rudd any votes. Let’s be honest she does need help. What do they expect him to do, protect her through thick and thin? How would the MSM spin it if Rudd actually had her thrown out of the Labor Party as the Libs seem to want instead of giving her a chance to make amends? Wouldn’t that really be hanging her out to dry?

  27. I thought Shanahan did a good job with his analysis of Newspoll this time. Of course there was absolutely nothing he could hang his conservative hat on this time but at least he was honest about it.

  29. agreed Rx, nelson has copped too much of the blame and howard too little. remember the 2PPs were the same for the coalition in the last 12 months of government

  30. squiggle, i hope the opposition continues to make excuses and be in denial as much as you. Yes, the polls are out of whack. Of Course. Dont change anything

  31. I think by now even libertarian economists realise that the five cent fuel tax stunt is a waste of time that will merely bugger the budget. Again, I think that things will actually improve further for Labor once the tax cuts kick in, both because they will offer relief, and because it is a promise kept. The recent comments about finding a long term solution to fuel are the right message; there is no short term fix.

  34. Yes this poll does seem to be a bit out of tune with the latest trend. You would have expected 57 or 56 to be consistent. Then again you wont know until a few more polls. Right or wrong it does make Nelson’s life hard and boosts the stakes of Rudd Labor to that high level for a little while longer.

    Long way to go you and lots of things for Labor to do as well.

    We will be waiting to see the qualities of Xenophon and if he is going to be a grandstanding thorn for Labor or an ally.

  35. Re: Neal. Howard would have defended to the hilt. Rudd at least has acknowledged a problem and put in place counselling. thats real leadership.
    after all, she is a backbencher of no importance and he cant sack her, she has to quit. Please to hear interviewer ask Hockey on ABC radio something like “arent Australian voters concerned about more important matters” Yes, indeed

  37. Another obvious question – how does the Gippsland result look on this poll? Again, I don’t think Labor needs to win Gippsland to do well; any further swing since the election would be a good outcome.

  38. Rudd would I think have as a matter of course defend a team member as most leaders would, especially when the matter is trivial. That he didn’t do the natural thing is no doubt as some have suggested part of a bigger issue.

  39. I always liked Howard’s communication skills before he became PM – that same technique I came to despise not much later. Then again at that time I hardly paid any attention to politics.

    The one statement that really made me hate that man was when he said ‘we will decided who comes to Australia and under what conditions they come’ or something like that. Coupling that with his governments failure to attack the racist undertone of Paul Hanson really made me a permanent opponent of the LNP. The looking at his first speech in Parliament told me the man has never changed his spots.

  41. So Rudd should back her how? Say everything is fine and dandy? Or do what he has done and given her a chance to work her way through the media frenzy. The only thing the media can do now is complain about Rudd’s handling of the matter not Neal herself. That would be seen as attacking a person while they’re down, and clearly she is. That’s not to say she is a bad person, in fact probably a good person in a bad place mentally at the moment. She needs help.

  43. Socrates, if I’m correct, Labor would be almost winning Gippsland if this poll was reflected in the byelection? Personally I doubt they will win the seat, but any swing against the Nats would be a good result.

  44. Gary: she got preselection for Robertson because the Labor Party hardheads thought she had no chance in hell of winning, it was done to mollify her Labor powerbroker husband. What to do with Belinda? Assuming the N.S.W police investigation clears her and Della Bosca, I’d make her work very hard as a local MP to avoid disendorsement. After all, the lady won a previous Liberal seat with a 7% margin, she obviously has some campaigning skills.

  45. Because by making Neal a problem it makes an issue out of what happens in the Iguana club and makes it intolerable for DB. C’mon you don’t think Gillard would have been worried about this because of etiquette. She is an operator, she does not waste her time on trivialities!

  47. Piping you could be right. Obviously you have more knowledge of the inside workings of the ALP than I do. We’ll just have to see what happens won’t we?

  48. GB you and I and have discussed this here before. But I just don’t get what we are disagreeing about. I think Gillard sorted out Neal for a political purpose, to carry out her IR agenda. You don’t, is that right?

  49. #86

    Kina, you voted LIBERAL in the past?? My respect for you has just vanished!!!!

    The repentant sinner is more welcome in my house than the person whose soul is without stain.

  50. I’ve said it before Piping I just think you’re reading too much into it. We’ll see. I think we are really on the same side here, it’s just the motive behind it all I have doubts about but, who knows, you could be right. It will all come out in the wash.

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