ACNielsen: 56-44

Today’s Fairfax broadsheets bring us the latest monthly ACNielsen survey of federal voting intention, showing Labor’s two-party lead narrowing slightly from 57-43 to 56-44. It also finds Peter Costello favoured as Liberal leader by 37 per cent of respondents against 29 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 19 per cent for Brendan Nelson, and gives the government generally poor ratings for its handling of petrol prices despite a Labor lead of 38 per cent to 34 per cent as the party best able to handle the issue.

Another federal poll which earlier escaped notice was last Monday’s Westpoll survey of 400 Western Australian voters. It showed Labor with a two-party lead in the state of 53-47, which can be read as good news for the government if compared with the 2007 election result (53.3-46.7 in the Coalition’s favour), or bad news if compared with the April Westpoll (63-37 to Labor). It too found Peter Costello favoured as Liberal leader, with 21 per cent support, against 18 per cent for both Malcolm Turnbull and local hero Julie Bishop and just 10 per cent for Brendan Nelson. We will presumably be hearing from Newspoll this evening.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

132 comments on “ACNielsen: 56-44”

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  1. 41 Mr Squiggle – if that’s all you can get your political jollies on then you’re more desperate than I thought.

  2. [No mention that. depite threats. the Budget was passed.]

    I wonder if they did pass the Budget, knowing full well that the Libs/Nats would lose control of the Senate by the end of the Month ? 🙂

  3. 57 gusface – that is exactly why the Libs have no chance at the next election. Everytime they open their mouths on IR they are saying “we still support Workchoices”.

  4. GB

    maintain the rage

    “well may we say god save the liberal party, cos nothing will save workchoices”

    with apologies to eg 🙂

  5. Having just watched Kevvie on with Kerry on the 7.30 Report, I reckon The Shrike’s hypothesis, or a version of same, is looking very enticing. He certainly wove the international perspective on oil very deftly. Ducked and weaved with adroitness around what can be done at national level. Interesting.

  6. Jeez, William, you might be known to your Mum as William, but for us Bludgers, you’re an absolute hero for this site. When you get your Ph.D., do you think it’d be O.K. for us to send you a virtual Ph.D. for tolerance, or alternatively, a binge amount of quality wine of your choosing?

  7. Just not quite prepared to let you be first with the latest for once though Mumble. Competitive world is Newspoll.

  8. Mumble, you’r so legit you’ve crossed over.

    Parroting the MSM thmes, going with the flow.

    You know which side your bread’s buttered on.

  9. Bushie

    bit harsh on Mr Mumble methinks

    remember in the dark days his was one of the few sites to at least air the truth


  10. Gotta agree with BB in the sense that I have found Mumble much more closely aligned in opinion with MSM than before the election

  11. 53 Gary Bruce

    I couldn’t call them jollies, but I can recognise hard yards when I see them

    Brendan, “I need no blanket, my love for my country keeps me warm” Nelson made a serious, though bumbling, effort at leadership when he dragged the Libs behind his petrol price vs petrol tax assault.

    Over the last few weeks, L-np picked up a couple of points in both Newspoll and AC Neilson, and I’d take notice if I were you.

  12. Gary,

    The next time you have a look at your shaking boots, remember, the thing about chipping-away at something is that you will only ever see small chips fall to your at a time….

    Now, if you’ll excuse me, I would like to go have my third glass of red tonight, which, under Kevin Rein’s new world order, makes me a binge drinker –

    I notice you’ve posted more than three time tonight, does that make you a


  13. 53/47 is about the final target for Labor on election day.

    The big difference this time around is they get the incumbency advantage that last time saved the LNP from total destruction at the last minute.

  14. Mr Squiggle, yes we have noticed that the opposition have shifted from the depths of psephological despair. I think I would worry once they start coming within cooee of 50% and even then given the advantages of incumbency in a campaign, they’d probably need to start out at 53 or 54. Keep dreaming

  15. Squig, how petty can you get? I’m sure, with the delusional stuff you’ve been coming out with 4 drinks would be about 25% of your daily needs.

  16. The LNP will have to try and turn to competence and decent policy making eventually and that will also require unequivocally dropping WorkChoices type IR.

    They can with the help of the MSM whittle back a lot of points but during an election campaign it wont be enough to get them over the line – unless the MSM go completely mad and continue their anti-Labor campaign there as well, including a redefinition of truth.

    The thing the LNP should be doing is giving Turnbull a go right now, if he cant hack it there is still time to try another. I believe they need to bring in some brand new talent if they have any laying around out the back, and preferably moderates. Even if they don’t have the talent they should be developing what they have by bringing them out the front.

    Downer wont run less he get twice humiliated by his arch rival Rudd. Cossie wont risk wasting 3-6 years after being Treasurer for so long.

    The MSM while making the LNP look a bit like a credible opposition are really papering over some serious weaknesses that should be exposed and dealt with.

  17. An example is mumble on the morgan 58.5/41.5 poll:
    Mr Rudd is stuck in some strange place and can’t get out”. Sounds like Glen Milne or Dennis Shanahan.

    Any political leader would only dream to be stuck with such a massive lead.

  18. Mumble has at times gone into the Rudd bashing business. I don’t mind criticisms of policy but this personal character assisination stuff is garbage and I would have thought someone like Mumble, who I’ve had a lot of time for, would avoid that type of argument.

  19. Andrew
    to report on a meme or perception does not imply bias as such
    expressing an opinion from a point of concern (mumble) is different from expressing an opinion from a point of vindictiveness (poison dwarf et al)

  20. gusface, the example I quoted was an opinion of mumble, he was not reporting someone else’s opinion. I should also add though that mumble did call milne on his one term rubbish

  21. You can’t really go implying that the Prime Minister might be considered a megalomaniac without expecting half the country to get shirty. 🙂

  22. 30 minutes to go before Newspoll (thank god for the 2 hour time difference in WA – we find out at 8.30pm 🙂

    Newspoll – No Change 🙂

  23. Peter Brent will do me. Critiquing (as opposed to deprecating) is his stock in trade. Give him a break.
    However the deal with Rupert Mephistopheles is a bit of a worry (joke).

  24. I just had a vision of psephology being like being in a rock band? “You’ve changed man, you used to be about the Polls; now its about the leaks”. I bet the groupies wouldn’t be as good.

  25. While I think the MSM is not the bastion of true and democratic news reporting they portray themselves as being, remember that all these “biased” comments and commentaries are nothing but the opinion of the writer.You either accept them at face value or a with pinch of salt.

    If you disagree you write to them and tell them so. Some may reply.Some won’t. Matt Price (RIP) to his credit took the time to reply even if he thought the respondents to his column were not entirely sane.

    As an example, Mr Shanahan I feel was left with no doubts whatsoever what the majority of people thought about his reporting and analysis of the last election. His editor was forced to write an editorial defending him. That shows the power of the right of reply we have.

    Just be grateful we live in a society that allows us to vent our spleens without the worry of being imprisoned or kidnapped or murdered.

  26. “Just be grateful we live in a society that allows us to vent our spleens without the worry of being imprisoned…”

    Missed the wonderful years of Bjelke Petersen did we sondeo?

  27. Mumbles opinion piece is quite good actually.

    Howard and Hawke both had the same trouble, many commentated that Howard seemed stunned by the idea of being PM and seemingly didn’t know what to do next. Howard and Hawke both had tough first up reelections.

    Sometimes the fairest and best criticism comes from your own supporters.

  28. Tonight’s Newspoll (in 12 minutes) will show once and for all that Kevin Rudd not only knew about the Iguana Joe incident, but was actually there. Behind the bar, serving alcopops.

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