Morgan: 63-37

No FuelWatch effect from Morgan either: indeed, their face-to-face poll conducted last weekend shows Labor’s lead up to 63-37 from 61-39 the previous week. Labor’s primary vote is down slightly from 53 per cent to 52.5 per cent, but the Coalition’s has fallen further – from 34 per cent to 31.5 per cent, their worst result since mid-March.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

738 comments on “Morgan: 63-37”

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  2. One thing that most if not all commentators have forgotten or ignored is that 8c a litre in excise is collected by the federal govt on behalf of the states.

    Only Qld gives this back to motorists.

    This came about because the states used to levy their own excise on petrol (except Qld) until the High Court ruled it was unconstitutional. (Due to the smut video industry taking the ACT Govt to court).

    So the Federal Govt gets 30c a litre and the states get 24c (given petrol at $1.60) It will not be too long until more revenue goes to the states than the federal govt from petrol.

    No wonder the Govt are looking at taxes on petrol.

  3. AAAAARGH can’t resist – Muskiemp @145
    Well, if the Rudd Govt can change building regs then they’re doing better than Frank Sartor here in NSW – who’s just trying to get rid of compliance with them (and consequently give a gazillion exemptions to developers). Until Rudd brings his own party to heel (and alters their viewpoint on coal vs solar, building regs vs developers etc) then this is just spin.

  4. [So the Federal Govt gets 30c a litre and the states get 24c (given petrol at $1.60) It will not be too long until more revenue goes to the states than the federal govt from petrol.]

    I think the best compromise would be to include petrol in carbon trading, but remove the GST from it. Excluding it completely would be environmentally irresponsible, and just slow the transition to non-fossil fuel based cars.

    The Government should be hammering the opposition on the head saying that they put the GST on petrol, which Labor voted against.

  5. Bushfire Bill,
    I saved this from one of Dennis’s articles in the oz.I’m a learner,but am learning quickly about bios in the media.
    Shanahan.2:40 PM 29/05/2008

    “The Rudd Government’s credibility on petrol prices is in tatters, its ability to function as a sophisticated modern federal government is under question, and it’s stretching credulity on economic management.”

  7. 154 – Why not remove the excise instead when adding the carbon cost? The question then becomes will the GST be levied on the carbon tax? Because this will apply to power and gas bills as well.

  8. Yes Eddie, that Shameaham is pretty amazing. What incredible is that he learnt nothing after all his spin about Howard and Rudd was exposed for the biased crap that it was once the election came. So he pretty much has no credibility. But to say:
    ““The Rudd Government’s credibility on petrol prices is in tatters, its ability to function as a sophisticated modern federal government is under question, and it’s stretching credulity on economic management.”
    when commenting on a 57/43 newpoll with a PPM of 66/17 is too ridiculous for words. Now the Oz has not got a huge circulation, but the fact that the major national newspaper actually employs this man as political editor defies belief

  9. Shows On @ 154.

    How do you arrive at that 24 cents for the states. Isn’t it whatever each state used to levy (approx 6 cents) for petrol sold within each state. In other words it is not 38 cents plus NSW plus Victoria plus Queensland plus South Australia plus Western Australia plus Tasmania.

  11. Actually Eddie, with some small changes, Shanahan might make sense:

    ““The Nelson opposition’s credibility on petrol prices is in tatters, its ability to function as a sophisticated modern federal opposition is under question, and it’s stretching credulity on economic management.”

  12. BS Fairman 132 and others

    I don’t wish to be a prophet of doom, but the simple fact is that in the long term oil is running out, and the price will then go up (further) in real terms. Even the Bush governments (bogus) figures give it 50 years max at current levels of demand. In the short term there probably is some speculation and prices could go down or up (nobody knows). While I agree we will never get to zero supply, the supply has plateaued, and will decline after about 2012 according to the IEA. See their Medium Term Outlook from 2007, which started this whole price spike running. It is due to be updated in November this year, and that may trigger further rises. Amoung other things, recent discusssions in Europe to curb biofuel production would drop supply perhaps 2%. Learn to live with less. Its that simple. The economy will have to change but will go on. We won’t be driving 4WDs though.

  14. Nelson was still spruiking his grand plan on 7 noos tonight. Just remember petrol will always be cheaper under a coalition government (but at what cost?).

  15. With the latest hikes in petrol prices clearly demonstrating that none control petrol prices except the international market no one is going to give any credibility to Nelson. In fact it is a bit embarrassing – he may as well say the grass will always be greener,

  16. The Poison Dwarf is still on autopilot beating the Costello drum. I hope he finds some news to report one day it will make a nice change from this rubbish.

    [Apparently Mr Costello was non-committal about his intentions at the meeting. He thanked Mr Pearce for his views but, on his future, said words to the effect: “When I have something to say, I will have something to say.” Mr Costello made no promises.]

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23826918-953,00.html

  18. George Soros has announced that the oil market is exhibiting all the classic signs of a bubble, and if anyone should know it’s George. The current prices however may give governments the nerve they need to take on the rapacious oil companies and demand the move to alternative fuels, such as CNG (compressed natural gas) or hydrogen. Why oh why are we continuing to tinker at the edges with this 5 cent nonsense, or GST on excise. We must demand real change NOW.

  20. Basil Fawlty – Soros may be right, thugh I see he’s flogging a new book so….

    But I was struck by this:

    Mr Soros also warned that the Bank’s inflation report represents a “Faustian pact”, obliging it to keep interest rates high to control inflation, even as the economy is starting to slump.

    “You had the nice decade,” he said. “Now that is over and you are in a straitjacket.”

    This is also the dilemma we may soon face. I’m not sure than any government has worked out the best way of dealing with it.

    I am starting to feel sorry for Rudd. Its increasingly looking like his time in government is going to be a rerun of Whitlam, but on steroids. Gough too faced an oil shock and the financial repercussions from it that signalled the beginning of the end. Plus an opposition that felt it was the legitimate government and a media that tended to agree with them. Though back then they were much more disciplined and competent than the current rabble!

    Apparently, Whitlam keep a copy of his policy speech on his desk and every time a promise was fulfilled he crossed it of. I just hope that Rudd has the sense to abandon a promise if changing fortune renders it economically untenable. That was Whitlam’s big mistake. And Whitlam’s problems were minor compared to what we could be in for.

    The #@#$ Libs sure know when to be in government, and when to loose! 🙁

  21. Shanahan
    “The Rudd Government’s credibility on petrol prices is in tatters, its ability to function as a sophisticated modern federal government is under question, and it’s stretching credulity on economic management.”

    Yes Eddie, that was one of his more egregious utterances, right up there with his “old dog/young dog” analogy where apparently the “old dog” (Howard) was blind in one eye, missing a leg etc. etc. but could still steal a sausage at the barbeque while the “young dog” (Rudd) was the centre of attention. Or something.

    Then there was his famous (and I paraphrase), “Beazley can’t ever be Prime Minister: he likes Perth too much, and he’s only seen his wife Suzie for a total of six months out of the past 5 years, so his marriage and therefore his personal judgement now both come into question.”

    Put these alongside his microscopic dissection of a Newspoll where a 1 point movement to Howard in PPM (while the voting figures tanked) was seen as the start of the “comeback”. Or his “Election winning lead to Howard” write up of a single 51/49 Newspoll in August 2006 (they never won another, and still haven’t, almost two years later).

    But Dennis isn’t alone…

    Honourable Mention goes to the ABC’s “They’re on a winner… and they know it!” 7pm news headline the day after the 2006 Budget (and for that matter Dennis’s “Master Class” analogy from 2007).

    All this is right up there with Hartcher’s Howard “marching triumphantly along the Boulevard of Ideas” (when the Quadrant “Culture War” story was hot), and Uhlmann’s “deck of cards analogy” (as in Labor is about to collapse from within, and it’ll be a big collapse because they’re so far ahead in the polls, but only temporarily, because they’re a deck of cards etc.).

    They all have a go at the “judgement” ploy. It runs something like this: “Rudd’s shoelaces come undone one day during an interview. Do we want the kind of man who has no judgement about whether his shoelaces are tied or not to apply that poor judgement about an admittedly minor thing to running the affairs of the nation? Well? DO WE?”

    A couple of months ago I even saw Milne, exasperated that he couldn’t pin something on Rudd over the “Did Rudd attend a funeral in Perth or was it a cover for secretly seeing Brian Burke paid for with taxpayers’ money four years ago” “scandal”, finally write this journalistic gem: “Everyone in Canberra knows Rudd is up to something with Burke,” (he just won’t admit it) etc. etc.

    “Everyone” knows? Brilliant investigative work there, Glenn. Walkley material, for sure. almost as incisive as “People say…” to which Maggie Thatcher once famously retorted to George Negus during a 60 Minutes interview, “Who are these ‘people’? What are their names?” … the only thing was, Negus learned from that, Dennis and his mates in today’s Commentariat never have.

    But I must admit that the reputation of the government being “in tatters”, all gleaned from a mighty poll showing a public approval that would have been the envy of just about every politician in the World except Robert Mugabe, Saddam Hussein and that guy who runs Uzbekistan (they all get 99.9% “Preferred Great Leader And Father To Their People” ratings), was a biggy, even for Dennis. From reading it you’d have expected Rudd and his entire Cabinet to have handed over the keys to the Lodge to Brendan and just walked away, thankful to get out of politics with their hides intact.

    Shanahan’s series of diatribes against Beazley in The Australian during 2006 arguably had some effect on the outcome, or at least got the ball rolling on the pack rape by the media of Beazly’s leadership. Dennis even got interviewed on Lateline by Tony Jones for his troubles. For a brief, shining moment, Dennis The Menace actually allowed himself to believe he was a kingmaker. Except the “King” he made, Kevin Rudd, turned into a Frankenstein’s Monster (or, as we shall see later, just an ordinary monster) as far as Dennis was concerned. Ever since, Dennis has been trying to atone for this, his biggest sin against the Liberal Party cause. The man he thought would be a “dud”, turned into “KRudd”… all over Dennis’s face.

    I can still rmemeber an article by Dennis very close to Christmas 2006 where he shuffled all his index cards – and those little pieces of paper he must use to write up his crackpot theories – around on a table and came up with a sort of “Path To Victory” article on how it was inevitable Howard would trounce Rudd. He gave a blow-by-blow forward description of each milestone as Rudd (in Dennis’s fevered hope) succumbed to scandal after scandal, as inevitably as night follows day, culminating in an October election where Howard would wipe the floor with him, even worse than the Latham “disaster”. I think he even mentioned an exact date for the vote.

    Strangely, out of all his articles that I linked to at the time, this one piece is the only one that comes up with a “We can’t find this article” message.

    Well, the “scandal after scandal” bit came true, but as we all know, each one seemed to strengthen Rudd’s prospects, rather than dilute them. I was reminded of Steve McQueen’s line in The Blob as the big piece of jelly just grew bigger when terrified townspeople tried to kill it with shotguns: “Don’t shoot! It feeds on energy!”

    If Dennis had been a schlock-horror buff, he might have done well to take McQueen’s advice and stop shooting. Every time he lets off a blast the Monster just gets bigger.

  23. Julie Bishop on Insiders now saying that Rudd should not try any diplomatic initiative regarding Asia because he’s only been Prime Minister “for about five minutes”.

    Eh?

    I thought he was supposed to have solved the petrol crisis, inflation, interest rates, pensioners’ entitlement, Global Warming, solar electricity and the Orangutan Dilemma in the same five minutes?

    Pies is racking on about Gosford Gate (NSW state minister and Federal MP wife are supposed to have threatened staff at a Central Coast eatery).

    Cassidy, as usual, is asking Dorothy Dixers to Bishop. Pies looks like he is about to have kittens with his “scandal” news.

    Is it any wonder Rudd won’t go on this crappy gossip show?

  24. 171
    Bushfire Bill

    BB, This is an excellent essay. Serious suggestion; you should send it to The Monthly and ask if they’d like to publish. It deserves to be made available to a much wider audience.

  25. “Insiders” is fast turning into one of those shows I’ll refuse to watch. I don’t mind government criticism but how about some opposition criticism to balance the books eh?

  27. Pehaps Milne might treat us to a story one day on why a man who is writing his memoirs would persue Milne’s fantasy of challenging for Leadership of the Opposition?

  29. BB at 173, bad enough having an opposition member almost every week, but she got a very very smooth ride. And Cassidy didnt call her on her “five minutes” remark as you say.

    And who is that dill from the SMH???

  31. Still get a sense that the MSM has not gotten over Howard’s loss. They get so excited about anything that looks bad for Rudd; meanwhile the polls remain unmoved; where are the questions about how we get a viable opposition

  32. Poor Cassidy has not gotten over Rudd not appearing. He is appearing much more opinionated than in the Howard years, when he was more of a host

  33. Neither did Cassidy call her on her false remark that Japan is Australia’s largest trading partner (China overtook Japan in May).

    I wonder if we’ll see any ‘Gotcha!’ media over that?

  34. Its amazing to see how Insiders operating inside a bubble. Its a parallel universe. You wouldnt think by watching this that the polls are 57/43 (Newspoll) and 63/37 (Morgan).

    Pathetic

  39. Well the government is in chaos, they have to seriously reassess itself, etc etc

    Yes 57/43 is really crisis-level

  40. The only people who watch a show like “Insiders” are political junkies like us, which is a fairly limited and small audience. They stand to lose a fair chunk of that small audience with shows like this.

  41. GB I cant remember it ever being this bad. It was a free-for-all today- seems everyone has it in for Rudd today. I think its worth emailing the ABC

  44. have a go at these out of touch fossils

    i sincerely believe they are suffering group dementia and irrelevance syndrome

    come july and somehow i think an ABC reshuffle is in order

    first off should be “liberal insiders” and its poor grasp of reality

  45. gusface, I encourage you to email Insiders. It wont make a difference I suppose, but they cant really get away with this crap without comment

  46. No point emailing. They’ll ignore you.

    I agree, Today’s show is a shocker. Pies is almost hyperventilating during his anti-Rudd diatribes.

    Finishes up with a tongue-tied word gaffe by an Opposition backbencher, to much guffawing by the Panel.

    What is wrong with these people? Let’s seem them get up there in Parliament and try to never make one mistake, or say one wrong thing that could be quoted back at them.

    Post script: Pies predicts the Heiner Affair will be resurrected. Does this man ever give up?

  47. I dont mind if the panelists want to take free kicks at the government, but have the professionalism to put it into context: ie. the government is MILES ahead in the polls, so maybe its the opposition that is actually in trouble

    The only light in an appalling show- Porky talkers about the comeback of the Heiner affair. Cassidy talks about “logging dead horses” and KA says “Piers is good at that”

  50. This show is just a great example of the holding pattern (or decline) this country has been in for the last decade.
    Which journalist has really emerged in the last decade?

    It’s just all part of the pattern toward an education system that’s hell bent on teaching skills (doing, not thinking), instead of the problem solving ability to work out what skill is required before you apply it (thinking, then doing).
    Pity about the thinking….

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