Morgan: 63-37

No FuelWatch effect from Morgan either: indeed, their face-to-face poll conducted last weekend shows Labor’s lead up to 63-37 from 61-39 the previous week. Labor’s primary vote is down slightly from 53 per cent to 52.5 per cent, but the Coalition’s has fallen further – from 34 per cent to 31.5 per cent, their worst result since mid-March.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

738 comments on “Morgan: 63-37”

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  1. Bushfire Bill Says:
    June 13th, 2008 at 8:06 am


    Heh, with my chihuahua bitch I used to try and hide heartworm tablets inside her favorite food, chicken hearts. Worked a few times but eventually would see on the bottom of her food dish everything gone but the @#$% heartworm tablet 🙂

    At present I have a crossbred terrier bitch from the Lonsdale pound. Will eat pretty much anything, the toes out of any socks she gets her hand, errr teeth into. If needed, will try your syringe trick

  2. Poor Morgan, he’s only a bit relevant when his polls show a big change toward the coalition. I’d assume that 63/37 going to 59/41 really IS the end of the honeymoon

  3. Even the lower figure of 56-44 is annihilation territory for the Libs. Newspoll next week will be interesting to see the 2PP and Leaders ratings.

    Will Nelson climb above his historic high of 17%.?(…which actually means 83% want someone else other than him.)

  4. The 56/44 though is the oppositions best poll EVER isnt it, and its still a whopping 12% behind. Oh dear

    BTW, cant find this poll getting any coverage yet online, not even OO

  5. Andrew: The MSM ignore Morgan polls, whatever the results! They only care about Newspoll, ACN and Galaxy! But I guess if anyone will start bleating about a Liberal comeback, it’ll be Mr Spears

  6. Just on Spears, when doing crosses to Gilbert for Rudd OS trip reports, you can tell by the look on his face that he hates the happy positive reporting of his colleague.

  7. Progressive the OO at least on-line covered some Morgan polls when they shifted to Howard, as did

    Morgans headline, “ALP Support Down After Cabinet Leak on Petrol Strategy as Petrol Price Soars – But Would Still Win the Federal Election”. is erroneous. The poll after the cabinet leak showed an INCREASE in support to 63/37. A poor attempt to explain the latest shift. The phrase “would still win” implies the election would be close. perhaps “easily win” might be more appropriate.

  8. Spears will never live down being Howard’s chosen pet during the last election campaign, the man can hardly claim to be an objective political commentator.
    Ackerman, Bolt and Shanahan at least don’t pretend they aren’t Liberal Party supporting hacks!

  9. Morris Iemma holding a news conference at 2.30PM: Could Della Bosca be sacked, asked to stand down, or will Iemma once again express confidence in his embattled minister? Stay tuned!

  10. I remember Speers very clearly during the last election campaign looking into the camera, smiling adoringly and saying, “You can never right off the Prime Minister” in regard to Howard losing his seat.

  11. Never understood why Speers, an up and coming presenter hitched his wagon to Howard when all signs were Howard was going down. What a stupid stupid career move

  12. Slick move by Obamam

    “Barack Obama has shown the stunning power of the Internet for political fundraising. Now he is fighting its darker side as a vehicle for “smears” against his bid for the White House, unveiled an interactive website to debunk false rumours peddled by email and right-wing media outlets.

    The site at was created after one recent, and thus-far unfounded, assertion that Obama’s wife Michelle had been caught on tape slurring white people.”

    I think we saw a fair bit of this during the last campaign when links and photos were posted highlighting false information and quotes. Most of it was from the labor side and it wasn’t until after the election that the libs and nats realised that the power of net for spreading information and combating misinformation.

  13. Internet restrictions at work prevent me from watching the video stream of the Iemma press conference. What’s happening?

  14. Andrew

    Not so much wrong thread, as more Obama copying strategy from Australia.

    As I noted we saw a lot of it during the last campaign here in Australia, significant ones where when Howard and his supporters said he never promised to keep interest rates low. Within a day there were PDF’s of the lib pamphlets and sound recordings from the previous elections.

    There were also other significant postings relating to interest rates, inflation, unfair dismissals, welfare for the rich and alternative energy.

    Also concerted efforts in the smear campaign against Rudd, especially in regards to the Scores incident where the lib journos were suggesting he was asked to leave after touching one of the dancers.

    As I mentioned it appears the libs and nats only realised the power of the net after the election, but judging from most of the comments they still do not fully understand it.

    Eg Mostly they post repetitive schoolboyish “Rudds a dud” type comments or continue to post half facts or innuendo without any links.

  15. Iemma is standing aside Della Bosca for the moment, but still expressing support for him, so not a complete sacking from the ministry: about what I predicted, the Premier is as weak as piss, to put it bluntly!

  16. hey Antonio, one of my family’s close pals is a senior newsltd journo–even he is scathing on some of the media coverage, gosh, i could tell you some horror stories about the way the media treats people they think of as fair game, thats why i take the Della Boscagate with a huge cynical pinch of salt, a senior Advertiser journo became like a foster dad to me and mine and we grieved for our loss when he died, saying that journos like him and our Nigel are few and far between, the feral pirahnas i’m afraid are the main lot.
    i’ve already had my whinge about media bias and i can promise you i wont fight with you about any sort of media from now on–except if you laud Barcelona Tonight.

  17. Progressive, I disagree. Given that the stat decs signed by a liberal member have been withdrawn, the club has apologied (albeit it drafted by DellaBosca) and that there are witnesses that say nothing occurred, there is enough doubt to stand down rather than sack pending the police investigation

  18. Della Bosca drafting the apology: that looks very dodgy!
    Of course he and his wife wouldn’t be in this mess if they’d kept their traps shut and calmly moved tables!

  19. Agree it looks dodgy and he should have made them do the apology themselves. Dont you think though there is enough doubt about the incident to wait for the police investigation??

  20. What strikes me as more bizarre though is the way the media decides some conduct is bad (Della Bosca) but barely raise a concern about bigger things like overboard, WMD, AWB, Hicks, Haneef etc. Getting angry (allegedly) at a restaurant cant be compared to these bigger issues surely, and no ministers were sacked because of them

  21. I cannot see the police investigation into the Della Bosco matter going anywhere really.

    It will come down to “he said/ she said” and no real evidence to legally prove anything – something the msm – the terrorgraph in particular don’t worry about – unless they are ones in question.

    Della Bosco and wife should be challenged etc on what occurred, but we are now into the 6th day of front page headlines etc. Did our involvement into the illegal iraqi war etc etc ever receive such intense coverage?

    I think it was walter cronkite – the veteran US TV journalist, who when asked what he thought of the aussie media during a trip here in the 1960’s replied – “Too many reporters & not enough news ! ”

    Well walter, we are getting virtually no news these days – just nonsense.

  22. The LNP unclear as to their current stance on IR laws and I am sure this will again become a negative issue for them come election time.

    For those with an interest in unfair dismissal laws – some comparisons

    The United States of America (‘USA’) has limited termination protection for employees. Employment contracts can contain protection expressly or implicitly through employer policies or employer representations. However, most non-union employees in the USA are employed under ‘employment at will’ contracts. These contracts retain employees for an indefinite period of time. Employers can dismiss employees at will for any lawful reason. In essence, the doctrine of employment at will enables an employer to terminate their employee for a good reason, bad reason, or no reason at all. A reason is lawful providing it does not breach any express or implied terms of the employment contract or breach any employment protection statutes.

    These statutes do not address dismissals, which under the WRA, are generally protected by unfair dismissal. The USA statutes only consider the equivalent to the Commonwealth’s unlawful dismissal protection. Unlawful dismissal aims to protect employees against being dismissed due to their sex, disability or other grounds. Unfair dismissal focuses upon protecting employees from dismissals which are unfair, unjust or unreasonable. USA employers can dismiss employees for any other reason, for example, if the employer does not like the employee’s car.

    Australian employers with less than 100 employees or where the employee has been employed for less than six months will have the same power as USA employers under Work Choices to dismiss employees without reasons or with bad reasons. Otherwise, under the WRA employees are entitled to reinstatement, or compensation in lieu there of, if they demonstrate that they were unfairly dismissed.

    Unlike Work Choices, German employers must provide reasons when ever they dismiss employees. In Germany the Civil Code[54] and the Protection Against Dismissal Act (the ‘PADA’) require all employers to provide their employees with reasons for their dismissal. Section 1 of the PADA requires all dismissals to be socially justified.

    A significant difference between the Commonwealth and Germany is the access threshold to unfair dismissal. The Civil Code and s 23 of the PADA restrict unfair dismissal legislation to companies with five or more employees, not including vocational trainees and marginal part-time workers. Between October 1996 and January 1999 the threshold limit was lifted to 10 employees. This alteration in the threshold provided material for research into the effect of unfair dismissal protection on businesses. Research presented at the European Association of Labour Economist’s 2004 Conference found that there was no clear evidence that the alteration had any positive or negative impact on businesses.

    Canadian employees, who are employed on indefinite contracts and have not given their employers grounds for summary dismissal, cannot be dismissed without reasonable notice or a reasonable severance package. What constitutes reasonable notice is determined:

    with reference to each particular case, having regard to the character of the employment, the length of service of the servant, the age of the servant, and the availability of similar employment, having regard to the experience, training and qualifications of the servant.

    In addition to the notice periods, Canadian employers cannot dismiss employees in bad faith. The Canadian Supreme Court has provided employers must act in good faith when dismissing employees. Writing for the majority in Wallace v United Grain Growers Ltd, Justice Iacobucci explained this requirement as:

    at a minimum, I believe that in the course of dismissal employers ought to be candid, reasonable, honest and forthright with their employees and should refrain from engaging in conduct that is unfair or is in bad faith by being, for example, untruthful, misleading or unduly insensitive.

    If an employer breaches the doctrine of good faith, then they will be held to have dismissed the employee wrongfully. Damages for wrongful termination are awarded to place the employee in the same position as they would have been had reasonable notice been given. In Australia s 654 of the WRA entitles unfairly dismissed employees to reinstatement or damages in lieu of reinstatement. In Canada, wrongfully dismissed employees are only entitled to damages and have no entitlement to seek reinstatement.

    Work Choices will require employees to have worked for an employer for six months before they are eligible for unfair dismissal. In Canada employees are eligible to claim a breach of the doctrine of good faith at any time. Indeed, it is not even necessary for an employment relationship to have developed! In Kilpatrick v Peterborough Civic Hospital an employee of 30 years standing had been approached over a six year period by a headhunting firm on behalf of a competitor.[66] The employee resigned and the competitor did not make an offer. Whilst the competitor had made no express inducements or offers, the competitor was held liable for not acting in good faith. The employee was awarded 30 months wages in damages

  23. “Of course he and his wife wouldn’t be in this mess if they’d kept their traps shut and calmly moved tables!”
    If that is all this is about surely we are looking at making a mountain out of a mole hill.
    It’s amazing how the offence now is how the apology was drafted. By the way it is not uncommon for both parties to have a say in drafting an apology, particularly through lawyers.
    I’m just hoping the media come out of this with egg on their faces but I’m not holding my breath.

  24. I wonder if Della Bosca is going to conduct the investigation into his conduct: he’ll do what he damn well pleases given that he runs the show. Iemma is a gutless tool.

    The NSW Teacher’s Federation is no doubt rolling around the ground laughing and enjoying the delights of schadenfreude re. Della’s predicament.

    Della Bosca is representative of the crook state of affairs in NSW: the man is a disgrace to his party.

    If only NSW had an opposition.

  25. dave reminds me of the Melbourne Herald Sun that ran 4 FRONT PAGES in a row about Therese Rein’s business. I cant recall them ever covering ANY other issue to that extent. Baffling

  26. Fagin I think youre overreacting which is not usual for you as far as I remember. Please detail what Mr Della Bosca has actually done to deserve being sacked given that the stat decs have been withdrawn

  27. It would seem to me to be the right move at this stage for Bosca to stand aside while police investigations are going on. From the internet there is enough doubt about what has happened to not make it an open and shut case. I have noticed lemma in the past will only make a definite move when there is suffient evidence. Fair enough.

    This is not a reflection on other parts of his performance which have not been good. In fairness he inherited a lot from Bob Carr. Still as in other States and Fed the Opposition is pretty much hopeless.

    I think Liberalism is going to its Use-By date. It is travelling very fast now to being a right wing rump run by extreme thinking. In the Global climate at present and the way Global politics is going, unfettered mining and the resultant pollution in processing to the end product will be constrained by the danger to the world environment. This movement has to get stronger as time goes on or the planet will not be livable. In the past without this constraint unfettered industry which the Libs believe in was viable. What was it hurting? And benefits were undeniable.

    Future Oppositions will probably have to come from a major realignment of people’s thinking/philosophies.

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