Morgan: 63-37

No FuelWatch effect from Morgan either: indeed, their face-to-face poll conducted last weekend shows Labor’s lead up to 63-37 from 61-39 the previous week. Labor’s primary vote is down slightly from 53 per cent to 52.5 per cent, but the Coalition’s has fallen further – from 34 per cent to 31.5 per cent, their worst result since mid-March.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

738 comments on “Morgan: 63-37”

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  1. Judy youre right, the opposition actually needs the focus and criticism to improve, so it in fact actually good for Labor for the MSM not to change. Still frustrating though. And good on you for your OO letter.

  2. Charles, 649 – very sage observation.
    If Howard had been critiqued (by the msm) responsibly he may well have adjusted his position on many issues and prevailed in 2007. As well, their attacks on Labor were not heard by the electorate. They were, unintentionally and unknowingly, sowing the seeds of Howard’s ignominious dumping.

    The current situation shows they have learned little. The attacks on Labor (particularly Murdoch writers) have no effect as long as the alternative is so inept (witness the polls).
    Rudd will climb back 2 or 3 points next Monday night after his impressive visit to Japan and decisive handling of the Neal (non-)affair. Can you imagine Nelson cutting down, say, bully-boys Tuckey or Heffernan for inappropriate behaviour? Not on your life.
    Says a lot, eh, about the alternative.
    Rudd should go easy on Nelson.

  3. Stuart @ 633. I don’t think anyone here would do anything other than welcome a debate on the interaction between the reporting of the MSM and voting behaviour, particularly if it was backed up with some research. It’s something that certainly interests me. That I happen to be more likely to vote Labor or Green, is irrelevant to the questions around these relationships, if they exist. That the site has somehow become polluted by being more frequently visited by particular leaning types of folks is also probably more a sociological observation, in both directions.

  4. Mr Morgan seems to be a regular chap nowadays. What are the chances of another poll tomorrow? And what are the odds of some bad analysis of the results?

  5. judy barnes – I suspect that half the problem is that some in the media, especially those that often get cited here, see themselves as the Opposition and keepers of the flame.

    And your post about giving the OO the flick has finally motivated me to do the same to the only Murdoch rag I still bought, the Sunday Mail. I know you have a soft spot for it, but the double dose of Milne in last week’s was a column too far. I’ve mainly been buying it for the TV guide insert anyway and I’m sure I can find a suitable alternative if I get off my lazy arse.

  6. MayoFeral @ 655: there are TV guides on the web/net.”google” tv guides and refine search for pages from Aus .It works for me.

  7. What about that Brandis on Q&A tonight!

    He was looking down the camera with a straight face saying that Howard had done more for the whales from the slaughtering by the Japanese than Rudd, and that Howard had given more funding to public schools than private!

    The audience wanted to throw their chairs at him LOL.

  8. Thanks sondeo, Kina. But I subscribe to a fairly detailed electronic TV guide that I use to program my PVR a week ahead. However, I still prefer to peruse a dead wood version at leisure. It seems to be a quirk of us ancients. We still like the feel of paper.

  9. Kina, George Brandis is famous for labelling Howard as the Lying Rodent back in the late 80’s I think.

    Personally I like Keating’s “Dessicated Coconut” best. Also I reckon Dessicated Rice Bubble suits Akerman perfectly.

  10. What a shambles Q&A was again tonight. Jones should hand the show over to Jenny Brockie and then it might actually become a useful forum for public debate. Goward fires off more cheap shots per minute that any other current politician but none of them anywhere near a bullseye – she comes across as being of average intelligence at best which surprises me considering the jobs she’s held before politics. Maybe she didn’t win those jobs on merit? Had to laugh when Brandis tried to brush aside his infamous naming of the Rodent. For than one George we’ll always thank you. Joel Fitzgibbon impressed me with his mild mannered style and connection with the general audience.

  11. 661
    Thomarse Says:
    June 12th, 2008 at 10:58 pm
    Chris Pyne on Q&A next week

    Gee, I hope he gets asked which is his favourite steam bath.

  12. Brandis is typical of the Liberals: arrogant, toffee nosed, up himself, self important, private school educated, lawyer.
    I agree Q&A is an unmitigated shambles, usually rescued by which ever Labor Govt. Minister is appearing! Tony Jones is appalling, the number of free kicks that man gives the conservatives is outrageous!

  13. Centre @ 648 – the sad part is that Brandis probably genuinely believes both propositions, just as apparently almost none of his colleagues understood that workers could be worse off under SerfChoices. Indeed, their continued reluctance to abandon it suggests that most of them still haven’t fully grasped that point.

  14. Oh FFS by “Their” ABC.

    [The Federal Government has been told if it is serious about addressing social inclusion among older Australians, it must boost the aged pension.

    Federal Minister for Ageing Justine Elliot has invited her state and territory counterparts to a meeting to discuss social isolation and community care.

    The head of the National Seniors Association, Michael O’Neill, says increasing the aged pension must be up for discussion.

    “It would be useful for each of these government ministers to recognise that whilst ever people are not adequately supported in their old age then there are going to be consequences across the board – whether it’s in social isolation, reliance on community care programs or health related issues,” he said.

    “An inadequate aged pension increases the likelihood of social isolation.”

    But Ms Elliot says the pension will not be on the agenda.

    “This is certainly an issue that the Government has spoken about on many occasions,” she said.

    “But in relation to this ministerial conference on ageing, we’ll be dealing with issues specific to the portfolios that I have as the Federal Minister and also the state ministers have, particularly in relation to the delivery of community care, and aged care and facilities and ways to deal with dementia and also psycho-geriatric issues.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/13/2273294.htm

  15. There used to be a leader of the opposition named Nielson, and a shadow treasurer called, I think from memory, Termbills?

    There was also a portly spokesman for something or other called El Hockian.

    Whatever happened to them?

  16. MayoFeral, gawd i rarely read past the sports section, the TV insert and letters to the editor of the “Sunday Scream”, my main link with it is my pal Nigel and his expose’s on Von Einam, though as he generally rings me saturdays to let me know what he’s writing i could forgo it, we go back a long way to when he was a cub reporter a bit wet behind the ears, Nigel is that rare animal–a down to earth honest journo, even a good part of SAPOL trusts him, i like to think that being close to us over the years has given him a different more humane perspective on things, i’ve seen him through his young heartbreaks and he’s cried with us in the past, it’s wonderful to see the mature family man he’s become, if he was in politics i’m sure we would have had another Matt Price, anyway the “Sunday Scream” will eventually go the way of the others when i get off my lazy butt and look for an alternative TV book, i’ll miss my sports section though, i’m a Crows tragic lol and i love swearing and cursing at Rucci’s one eyed Power rambles.

  17. So much for the beauty of part time work for female employees:

    “THE slowing economy appears to be taking its toll on females in the workforce with data showing that nearly all those who lost jobs last month were women.

    In another sign that higher interest rates are working to slow economic activity, the number of employed people fell for the first time in 19 months, by almost 20,000.

    Of the 19,700 jobs lost, 19,600 were lost by women and only 100 by men.”

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/business/19700-lose-jobs-only-100-men/2008/06/12/1213283193001.html

  18. #610:

    Heh, the pill inside the mince ball will work only once

    Actually no, especially if the pills are “Happy Pills” (prednisone, for an inflamed neck disk). Happy pills make them contented and hungry. They’ll eat anything.

    Bob (the dog in question) is a real lean, mean fightin’ machine. Legs like chicken wings, a bark like a Rottweiler and a heart like Phar Lap. Weighs all of 6 kilos, all of it concentrated hatred (when it comes to other dogs).

    After a course of Happy Pills he goes up to 7 kilos. He becomes a stomach on four legs. Even sometimes lets other dogs walk by in the street without being barked at.

    Here’s a tip: for the first pill (which bob never wants to take) I get one of those cheap nylon syringes from the chemist (30 cents), pour in 10 mils of milk, and the pop the pill into the syringe. Shake well until the pill dissolves (usually about 1 minute). Then poke the end of the syringe between his side teeth and squeeze gently until all the milk (plus pill) has gone into his mouth. There’s hardly ever any spillage and the whole lot gets ingested. After that Bob’s walking around scraping the cat’s bowl, looking under chairs for dog chewies and generally hungry for a month. That’s when the mince balls come in.

    I showed the syringe method to my vet (who prefers the gag-and-pop method of pilling recalcitrant dogs). He liked the ease of it so much he uses the technique himself now. No trauma to the dog and you don’t get bitten on the fingers.

  19. Another embarrassing revelation about the DellaBosca/Neal affair in the SMH this morning:
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/dear-me-della-penned-iguanas-apology/2008/06/13/1213283202681.html

    It seems (confirmed in article) that Della Bosca wrote his own apology issued by Iguanas management. Given the obvious potential for intimidation or manipulation of management by him, this means there is no credible alternative view to that of the staff.

    While I was delighted to see Howard go and am happy with Rudd’s performance to date, I cannot agree with other pro-labor bloggers here that this is a non-issue. This will damage Labor in NSW, and Federally unless there is action. If six different people signed statutory declarations that the behaviour of the figures in question was offensive and involved bullying using their parliamentary powers then that is unethical conduct. Unless someone can prove that those six were the local chapter of Young Liberals, they have a right to have their complaint taken seriously. If they were threatened it is valid for the police to investigate. Letts not defend the indefensible, or Labor’s claims to teh high moral ground will soon be destroyed. This is not a media beat up.

  20. Soc, their complaint is being taken seriously. The cops are investigating.

    Too many “ifs” in your post.

    The truth will out.

    Everyone has an uppity waiter story. Just like everyone has a bullying MP story.

  21. Today’s DAILY TELEGRAPH: Rumours of a coup against Iemma in New South Wales, moves to install either John Watkins or Carmel Tebutt as Premier and Nathan Rees as Deputy.
    Socrates: Della Bosca has to go, NOW, and I’d bet Neal is disendorsed before the next election, Labor can find a better candidate for Robertson!

  22. 675
    Socrates Says:
    June 13th, 2008 at 8:10 am
    …It seems (confirmed in article) that Della Bosca wrote his own apology…

    I don’t have a strong opinion for or against Della Bosca – I live in Victoria and don’t follow state politics in NSW all that closely. However, his comment that it’s not unusual for the person seeking an apology to actually approve the wording of the apology before it’s issued sounds reasonable to me. Maybe it’s normally done through lawyers but that’s a technicality. Of course few, if any of the opinion pieces will acknowledge his involvement in the wording of the apology as a reasonable thing and wil be represented as another example of his stand over style. He’s in a no win situation.

  23. I think Della Bosca’s position as a minister is untenable, but Iemma won’t sack anyone right now, he needs the votes of the entire cabinet to get electricity privatisation through the parliament! We in N.S.W deserve a much better government, but one has little confidence we’d get any better from O’Farrell and the Liberals.

  24. despite this, though from a non-NSW perspective this does seem like a massive beat-up. I though the stat decs signed by a Liberal JP had been withdrawn?? There is enough doubt about what happened to make it hard to judge and does not seem like a hanging offence

  25. Antony from the stories in the local paper it would appear that the Libs haven’t really got into this campaign in Gippsland at all. The Friday edition of the Gippsland Times hasn’t been posted on line yet but the Tafe moving/Netball Association issue tends to dominate the paper.

  26. A very reasonable analysis there of Gippsland. The fact that there have only been 4 Country/Nats MPs over the course of 86 years is testimony to the resistance to reform and revive the Nationals. I think they’ve got a reasonable chance to do that in the coming years, with a handful of ‘new’ or ‘fresh’ faces.

    The sticking point to this is of course, Senator Boswell, who should come clean on his promise of resigning part way through his term.

  27. 685
    Antony Green

    FFS Antony, can ya put in a bit more effort next time!

    Thats we pay you the BIG BUCKS! over there at *OUR ABC* ya know!

    g*ddamn MSM lightweight ๐Ÿ˜‰

  28. As far as the Della Bosca story goes, it wouldn’t do NSW Labor any harm at all if both Della Bosca and Iemma depart the scene. Three years to the next state election and a fresh start now may just be the filip they need.
    I’m not convinced Federal Labor will be hurt by this though. Rudd has done the right thing here which has been recognised as such by no other than Fatty O’Barrel himself on Sky Noos. He has also been given credit for his actions by political journalists, something they have been loathe to do in recent times.

  29. Steve Lewis, friend of Peter Costello, thinks Peter would make the next election very difficult for Rudd. Please Peter take the leadership, Labor needs to extend its majority. What are these journalists on? Why do they think Costello is popular?

  30. #633 Well said, Stuart. As a journalist myself, I get absolutely pilloried on this site if I ever attempt to defend the media over anything. The media frequently gets it wrong, and some journalists, and media outlets, do show bias, but the media-bashing on this site is a bit over the top.

    I began commenting on this site because I really enjoyed its political discussion. But now it’s all about the MSM bias and conspiracies. Politics is playing second fiddle to discussion of media. I get quite enough media discussion at work – I don’t need it in my spare time.

    If Poll Bludger wants to be a real alternative to political discussion in the MSM, it needs to have actual political discussion, rather than endless critiques of what the MSM are writing/broadcasting.

  31. getting off the Dellabella stuff for a sec
    I thought this article was interesting.titled
    “US Senator backs PM’s nuke plan”

    “PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd’s proposal for an international commission on banning nuclear weapons has received high-level support from one of the most influential US campaigners against nuclear proliferation, former senator Sam Nunn – but has been met with silence from the White House.

    The former senator, who has been mooted as a possible vice presidential running mate to Democratic nominee Barack Obama, has been urging action on the spread of nuclear weapons alongside former secretaries of state George Schultz and Henry Kissinger, and former secretary of defence William Perry, for the past 18 months.

    “We’re about to write to Kevin Rudd and tell him what a great idea it is,” said John Loretz, the group’s program director.”
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/us-senator-backs-pms-nuke-plan-20080612-2pqg.html

    also interesting was the last paragraph outing another sneeky Bush arse licking deal done by the Rodent

    “Meanwhile, Science Minister Kim Carr, in Washington, confirmed that cabinet would soon consider the Government’s attitude to remaining part of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership. Australia signed up to the controversial Bush initiative last year alongside Lithuania, Bulgaria, Jordan and a number of other small states. It was not publicised by the Howard government.”

  32. Following on from the SBS program and the DISSENT mag article does anyone know if there is any comparative data out there on the health systems of the devleoped countries?

  33. 691 Antonio & 633 Stuart. Firstly, I don’t recall anyone putting any limits on what people talk about here in regard to politics. Secondly, the MSM has gone way over the top to the extent it has been difficult to find one journalist or organisation that has been fair and balanced. At least during Howard’s time he could rely on Piers, Shanahan, Bolt and Janet A to name just a few to always support him (up to near the very end), no matter what he did. Name one journalist supporting Rudd to that degree. Name a paper that shows Labor the same support as The Australian supports the Liberals.
    Personally, I’m not going to sit back and think of England when I see injustice being done, not for you or anyone else.

  34. I t will be interesting to see if Morgan gets a run in MSM over the next couple of days, given the “fall” in support.

  35. Vera, I’d like be as sure of winning tattslotto. With those “awful” figures it’s sure to come up, even from those who right off Morgan as a joke when the numbers go against them.

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