Montana and South Dakota minus one week

The Democratic primaries campaign limps on: Puerto Rico on Sunday, Montana and South Dakota next Wednesday (our time).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,238 comments on “Montana and South Dakota minus one week”

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  1. Catrina & codger – It’s about one super delegate for Barry every 20 minutes at the moment! Clinton obviously didn’t want the AP announcement out there until the vote in the last 2 primaries. When do the polls close, by the way?

  5. Superdelegate Update

    DNC Diane Glasser (FL) for Obama.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2092.5, needs 24.5 to win
    Clinton: 1915, needs 202 to win

  9. Superdelegate Update

    Rep. Maxine Waters (CA) switching from Clinton to Obama.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2093.5, needs 23.5 to win
    Clinton: 1914, needs 203 to win

  11. Thanks Al – those times must be right. We can’t both be wrong!
    Depends on how long the counting takes as to the timing of any announcements, but it seems a lot of the SD’s aren’t waiting until the end of the polls.

  12. Superdelegate Update

    DNC John Daniello (DE) for Obama
    DNC Harriet Smith-Windsor (DE) for Obama
    DNC Rhett Ruggerio (DE) switching from Clinton to Obama

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2096.5, needs 20.5 to win
    Clinton: 1913, needs 204 to win

  16. I think he’d like to play it safe on Montana and assume he’d only get 7 there (a loss by up to 22.5 points would give him seven), whereas Montana 8 or 9 is a safer bet. Let’s say 8, so I’d probably like to see at least 5 more supers. Unless the 10 Edwards delegates come into it, in which case it’s gonna be over no matter what.

    This probably brings into it the differences between the delegate counts of the networks. While DCW is without a doubt the most accurate, I think he would like to hit the magic number on all the major networks so that they declare him presumptive nominee tonight.

  17. Delegate Update

    This is a synchronization between the DCW and the Green Paper in which Edward’s pledged delegates are factored into the equation.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2104, needs 13 to win
    Clinton: 1913, needs 204 to win

    I think we have a winner!

    🙂

  19. Superdelegate Update

    Rep. Dennis Moore (KS) for Obama.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2105, needs 12 to win
    Clinton: 1913, needs 204 to win

  20. Just to follow up on my major news networks comment:

    CNN – 2106 delegates, 12 to win
    NBC – 2104 delegates, 14 to win
    ABC – 2105 delegates, 13 to win
    CBS – 2107 delegates, 11 to win

    And wait for it…

    Fox News – 2123 delegates… and the headline “Superdelegates reportedly put him over the top”

    So yeah, all the networks will be declaring him the presumptive nominee tonight.

  24. I’m sure she does, Catrina.
    I guess it’s not off the cards – this contest will be quickly forgotten once the main game begins.
    Mind you, she has not exactly covered herself with glory until now. Her concession (or forcible removal) will have a marked impact on how she is perceived IMHO.

  27. codger at 2126
    You have a while to find out – apparently the significant moments in the Obama event are scheduled for about 10:30-11 pm. which is 6 or 7 hours from now.

  32. We need to be magnanimous in victory BSF:
    just as I’m sure they would be.

    Wonder how long it will be before at least a couple of them start touting for the Cadaver.

  33. B.S. Fairman at 2131
    I doubt it. Ron won’t concede until there are fair elections in all the caucus states, re-votes in Florida and Michigan, expulsion of the RBC, and modifications to the AA demographic to bring their support more in line with regular hard working white people. The Finns probably won’t conceded because of something to do with Hillary’s honor. And ESJ wouldn’t conceded anything just out of principal.

  34. Thanks Catrina, the comments of Carter & Clyburn in the video above prompted the question; just feel an Axelrod Clintonite back pat moment coming on…

  38. Good morning bludgers!

    A beautiful day is it not? Sadly, I am tied up this morning, thus unless I am lucky, will miss the concession and victory speeches. Thank god for youtube.

    Five months after it started… it’s all over.

  39. He only surrendered to the French because the alternative was surrendering to the Indians. Maybe that’s why Clinton is in New York rather than impersonating Custer in South Dakota.

  40. Catrina & Jen
    Yes, the emotionally attached apron-stringed HRC supporters are going to take this hard, because many seem to have made themselves the Protector Guardians of Hillary. We have one or two on PB (the others just want to niggle and stir).

    The Protector Guardian is one of the 16 role variants of the Keirsey Temperament Sorter.
    They are greatly concerned with the security of others and they often find assisting the downtrodden or people with disabilities to be satisfying.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protector_%28role_variant%29

    Of course, none of that means Obama should cave in to the Hillarian demands for the VP spot. That would be going too far in an effort to appease the bereft and anguished P-G’s.

  43. Can I just ask a question? With the massive amounts of vitriol directed at Hillary by some Obama supporters (for evidence: the posts on these pages) if Obama taps her for VP, what do those Obama suppoters do? Recant (“maybe she’s not Entirely Evil”)? Ditch support for the ticket? Hope for a tie in the Electoral College and that Congress appoints Obama as POTUS and McCain as VPOTUS?

    [Note the question isn’t whether Obama will choose her, just what his more venomous supporters – I know that’s not all of them, just a noisy subset – would do if he did]

    [And just to be fair – what do the more nasty of the Hillary supporters do if she’s the Veep candidate? Stop slagging Obama? Perhaps secretly wish for a loss? (Not that a VP loss did anything for John Edwards – which idiot came up with the conventional wisdom that says the VP is best-placed to be the presumptive nominee next time around?)]

  44. Not sure what is happening over on the DCW – but numbers are changing but no details of the names. Anyway – here is the latest count:

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2108, needs 9 to win
    Clinton: 1913, needs 204 to win

  45. MB,

    Why would Congress make McCain veep in the event of an electoral college tie?

    And for your information, the last three Democratic Vice Presidents – Gore, Mondale, Humphrey – have gone onto become their party’s nominee. So its fair to assume Edwards would’ve been very well placed for 2012 had Kerry been elected.

  46. “That’s not change you can believe in, that’s change you can xerox.”

    Hahahaha. Put your dime in the copier Hillary.

  47. 2143 MB – [if Obama taps her for VP, what do those Obama supporters do? Recant]

    There would be a lot of work by Obama and other senior Dems to heal the rifts. The first phase of the campaign for them would have to be tending to the wounds of the rusted on from both camps, and engendering general reconciliation.
    This must always be necessary in close contests, but it’s just a bit more pronounced this primary season due to the clear political differences between the two hopefuls. There are several months to go, and time heals all wounds, and in politics a short time can be an eternity.

    For me as an Obama supporter, I would just shrug and see it as an unfortunate political mistake that would make it harder for Obama to beat McCain. But as ong as he wins, VP’s are relatively invisible like the appendix anyway, so WTF?

  48. MB – IMHO I can’t think of any Obama supporters here that wouldn’t get behind an Obama-Clinton ticket and hope it won. There might be a little sniping depending on how she performs but she would be generally accepted. Just as she would have been had she won the nomination.

    On the other hand I expect the Hillary supporters would spend most of their time arguing about why the ticket should be the other way around and attributing any success to people wanting Hillary despite how unelectable Obama is.

  49. VP to a photocopy? Hold that thought Hillary:

    “Hours before the polls closed Tuesday in the final two Democratic presidential primaries, the Republican National Committee began circulating a video of Hillary Clinton questioning Barack Obama’s qualifications to be commander-in-chief, and acknowledging John McCain has this important presidential credential.

    …An RNC official tells CNN to expect to see more of Republicans highlighting Clinton’s critical comments of Obama as the campaign now turns to the general election phase.

    “We will use it repeatedly,” the official said.’
    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/03/republicans-begin-to-highlight-clinton%e2%80%99s-criticism-of-obama/

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