Montana and South Dakota minus one week

The Democratic primaries campaign limps on: Puerto Rico on Sunday, Montana and South Dakota next Wednesday (our time).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,238 comments on “Montana and South Dakota minus one week”

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  1. As a long time Hillary supporter, I congratulate Obama on a great campaign. We need Hillary and Bill to help us get the required 60 Senate votes to prevent the fillibuster in the senate. As CQ politics shows that is very close. Just click on the Senate tab. The black vote in the southern states will make a surprising difference. The black voters will not be intimidated out of voting for the first time ever. Go Obama!

  2. MB

    I don’t think the Obama camp want Bill in the ‘toolshed’…

    ‘Barack Obama didn’t just run against Hillary Clinton. He ran against Clintonism. The assault started indirectly in his book, The Audacity of Hope, which spoke about moving past the generational fights that had consumed baby boomers in the 1990s. He was attacking both parties for their preoccupation with Vietnam and the warmed-over cultural battles of the ’60s and ’70s, but on the Democratic side, this was an explicit effort to push away from the biggest boomer of all, Bill Clinton, and the turmoil of his reign.’

    from the Slate article above.

  3. 2149 Pancho. Its already been shown in 3 by elections that this does not work. So as far as I am concerned they should go for it and waste their money.

  4. Chris B – I dunno, I saw the advertising campaigns in those special elections as tying the candidates in question to Obama (a ‘scary black liberal’) and Pelosi. That’s a little different from being able to argue that your (prospective) VP thinks you are inadequate (which the GOP wants to do to Obama now).

    My point is that it was pretty obvious to most observers that the Clinton-Penn scorched earth bullshit was woeful unethical behaviour, not to mention bad tactics, at the time, and will probably come back to bite her now as she stands outside the Obama campaign with her cap in her hand.

  5. Now Hillary is Thelma or Louise, according to supporters on the streets of New York. And there is a mysterious unknown ‘someone’ behind Obama:

    Clintonistas Furious To The Last

    Laura Matos could not contain her anger.
    “I want her to say that she’s going all the way to November, even if it means driving over the cliff like ‘Thelma and Louise’,” the New York retiree said.
    “From the beginning, everyone’s been writing her off. But she’s still alive,” she said, undaunted by the mathematics of a race that is all but over in Obama’s favour.

    Wearing a “Hillary fan club” T-shirt, Matos’s 60-something friend Eva Friedman was clear about the culprits responsible for Clinton’s virtually certain defeat.
    The New York senator was the victim of rampant sexism by a Washington press corps and political class afraid of a woman with power, she said.
    “Barack Obama was put up by someone, I’m not saying who, who decided they were never going to allow a woman, Hillary Clinton, ever to be president,” Friedman said.

  6. Catrina

    Not wishing to blow smoke up you here, but thanks heaps for that run down as it occured last night. I’m not often a commenter, but i’m often ‘here’ and appreciate being able to come here and actually be aware of the nuts and bolts.


  7. JV, hopefully the media don’t harp on it too much. Both sides have fanatical supporters that could be highlighted to show the differences between the two camps, however at the end of the day, most of them are Democratic Party supporters. As long as they’re given enough time and support and the Obama camp treats them with the respect needed to help them go through their disappointment, they’ll end up helping to ensure the White House is not held by the Republicans.

  8. Yes, “CodgY”, I too love the smell of accelerated coalescense in the morning.

    Brutusina’s political future lies in her own hands from here. If she concedes graciously, apologises for the sludge that her surrogates have hurled at Obi over and above what passes for political hardball in America, and marshalls her Hillbots behind La Cause, then she has grounds for being considered a suitable candidate for Veep.
    Way I see it, Team Obi would be better off casting HRC adrift. She’s trouble with a Caital T as she can’t control her lust for power, her staff, her advisors or even her once scamp, but now chump of a hubby. Team Obi would do best to pay off her campaign debts, gift her a top domestic portfolio, and a tisket-a-tasket basket full of individually wrapped STFUs.

    If Senator Clinton chooses to “play cute” or in any way prevaricate, the Dems should relegate the junior senator from New York to the satellite Senatorial Committee Circuit, to Talking Head TV and to the groundhog days that are ten thousand and one rubber chickens.

  9. Here’s a question.

    What are the odds of Obama announcing a VP tonight?

    If he has decided to not opt with Hillary, the chances are about none. But from the sounds of it, the two have been having pretty serious conversations over the last few days. So there is a chance that the two parties have agreed she will be the VP.

    If that’s the case, would there be a political gain from him saying so tonight?

    My gut feeling is no – they would prefer the announcement to come with some nice pictures of Hillary holding up Obama’s hand. But it’s a chance.

    As for me personally, I think if she is on the ticket, the Democrats are in a whole heap of trouble. There’s a very large chance it will unite a currently divided GOP ticket – after all, take this ticket down and you’ve probably killed off two of the most promising candidates in recent history. Neither would have an easy time running against an incumbant McCain in 2012. That and a lot of the GOP despise Hillary. And I think Obama is going to have enough trouble as it is, my gut says at this stage the maverick will sneak home.

    On the flip side… disrespect Hillary, and you risk alienating a lot of her supporters, something Mr Obama can’t afford to do. If she openly says ‘I want VP’ and he says no, there will be a lot of muttering.

    Questions, questions.

  10. jv – on a limb here, but…

    Seems kind of sad to see these first wave feminists, who had fought essentialism so valiantly for so long, selling out the intellectual position in order to stand behind someone cos of what’s in their pants. Maybe it’s just pain of loss lashing out at the moment, but the vitriol that Obama has copped from aging party activists, organisations like NOW, the threats outside the R&B about voting for McCain etc. seem odd. On the one hand I guess it’s understandable, having fought for something thier whole lives, but there just seems a disconnect now between actions and philosophy. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

  11. What a great day. Of course, we all knew it was over months ago, but now it is official. Obama is the presumptive nominee.

    Thanks Catrina for the updates.

    Regarding Hillary as VP. I would accept it if it happens, but I think it would hold Obama back. Obama is pushing for a “new” politics while Hillary is symbolic of an old, divisive style, something we have witnessed throughout the primary season. Even so, the VP candidate is hardly a focal point of a campaign, so whatever happens so be it.

    Ideally, I would prefer Hillary being given a cabinet position of some kind, something to keep her supporters reasonably happy, but keeps her out of the way of the main campaign.

  12. I wish some of the big media outlets hadn’t ‘called the nomination’ for Obama before the last poll results came in. It just engenders the impression that the superdelegates put him over the line, playing into the narrative that the nomination was ‘stolen’ from Clinton by the party bigwigs. I suspect Fox News is particularly happy to be pushing this line.

  13. Pancho #2166: Two corrections. If they were indeed “first wave feminists” they would have been around with the Pankhursts. While I know Clinton does well among older voters, anyone THAT old would have to be in McCain’s demographic.:)
    Presumably, of course, you meant second wave feminists. But those demented racists outside the DNC were not feminists – anymore than Ferraro was. “Sexism” is a convenient label for them – or, less a label than a smokescreen to hide the big white pointy hoods they’re wearing.

  14. RE Clinton for VP-
    if the Dems decide it is in their interest to help clinch a win at the General, then fair enough. Personally I have lost all respect for Hillary Clinton (and Bill) and would prefer to see someone with more integrity and more in line with Obama’s ‘new politics’ approach.
    But – it’s still politics, and in the end it will be who can win the most votes that counts.
    Also, Obama would show immense goodwill if he allowed someone who was so toxic towards him to take up the role as his 2 IC.
    I’d prefer Edwards, but then again my opinion is worth Jack sh*t!

  15. Leak of Obama’s speech:

    “Tonight, after fifty-four hard-fought contests, our primary season has finally come to an end.

    Sixteen months have passed since we first stood together on the steps of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois. Thousands of miles have been traveled. Millions of voices have been heard. And because of what you said — because you decided that change must come to Washington; because you believed that this year must be different than all the rest; because you chose to listen not to your doubts or your fears but to your greatest hopes and highest aspirations, tonight we mark the end of one historic journey with the beginning of another — a journey that will bring a new and better day to America. Tonight, I can stand before you and say that I will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States.”

  16. Humbly corrected on point 1 RB. The R&B folks were obviously not around in the days of Frankenstein. However, the stuff outside R&B are the same lines that have been coming from NOW, Taylor Marsh, Stein etc for months. Just seems like a bit of a sellout to me from one-time revolutionaries.

  17. Just looking through the Montana and South Dakota exit polls. The idea that Obama has little traction with White voters has been destroyed.

    He has picked up the majority of Whites across a range of demographics. But it is the poor and low educated that he has difficulty getting, which is why he didn’t do so well in Virginia and Kentucky – both have a large populations with below average incomes and education.

    Appealing to this crowd will be one of Obama’s challenges. But with Hillary out of the way, a number of them might give their support to Obama anyway. For one, he is promising a far better health plan than McCain.

  18. Just listening to McCain. His supporters chant “no more change”, then McCain goes on and list changes that need to be made. What a mixed up message that is.

  19. Something of a rarity – over at:
    Under the red line link ” Strategy Room: Watch Live and Join Discussion” directly below the top graphic, there’s actually 3 real Democrats and one Fox stooge having a mostly interesting rolling discussion in another Fox studio on all sorts of things. It’s been going on for a few hours and is actually rather interesting.

    It’s a live video stream.

  20. Obama’s VP? One idea being floated is that he won’t pick Hillary, but one of her prominent supporters, like Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio(as we know, a very crucial swing state in November).

  21. Will be in & out today but stopped by to cheer yous up the barbarian is here supporting Hillary Todays blogs are almost an cestuous nest of bloodthirsty butterflys at a fellow ‘left’ person , shameful

  22. Pancho – Yes, like a lot of ‘isms’ residual 70’s feminism can be a smokescreen for many ulterior motives.

    r/Ron – If you’re of the ‘left’ then I’m Brett Lee.

  23. 11% reported in South Dakota, Hillary up 56:44 (but mostly rural results so far)

    I still can’t understand all the in-house nastiness from both Hillary and Obama supporters. (Caveat: only some supporters, I know: many are civil and silent). If you honestly want a Democrat president, don’t you think the sort of attitudes you’re taking are going to preclude the possibility? Hopefully, you’re all Australian and won’t have an actual impact on the race.

  24. 2165 Max “my gut says at this stage the maverick will sneak home.” The overwhelming evidence is showing completely the opposite Max.

  25. Breaking News
    Barack Obama has become the first African-American to secure a major U.S. party’s presidential nomination, CNN projects.

  26. 2188
    jaundiced view #2188
    “r/Ron – If you’re of the ‘left’ then I’m Brett Lee.”

    then you are Brett Lee , but not as smart. You are in the looney FL sobby intellegentsia who the public in ‘oz’ have never accepted. No genuine ‘left’ Labor person would bile Hillary the way you personally have. I’m in the Labor party the public do vote for and just did

  27. jv and Pancho- personally I am also immensely disappointed in the ‘Old Guard ‘Feminist’s responses throughout the campaign.
    They have reflected poorly on those of us who were so influenced by them in the 70’s and 80’s.
    The sexual politics of unequal gender-power is still relevant throughout the world, but they have done nothing to add weight to this with their suport of a privileged white woman based primarily on her gender, and then crying sexism when then many people, including women preferred Obama’s message. Frankly i think his message of hope and equality will do far more for disadvantaged women than all the “Glass ceiling ” rhetoric Hillary has tried to use.

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