Montana and South Dakota minus one week

The Democratic primaries campaign limps on: Puerto Rico on Sunday, Montana and South Dakota next Wednesday (our time).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,238 comments on “Montana and South Dakota minus one week”

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  1. The NYT (normally very pro-Clinton) are pretty much calling it as over (in a number of today’s articles).
    Inevitability seems to be setting in.

  2. Expat

    The great unwashed may be receptive to mudslinging if the mudslingers were not being totally rejected by said unwashed.

    Party Affiliation:

    Repugs 2003 43% 2008 29%
    Dems 2003 43% 2008 51%

    Country on wrong track:

    80% agree.

    Same story as Howard. When the mudslinger is discredited his mud don’t stick.

  3. Not an endorsement but noteworthy all the same …

    “It’s time,” said U.S. Senator Herb Kohl, the senior Democratic workhorse from Wisconsin who had resisted making an endorsement in the race for the party’s presidential nomination out of a desire to maintain productive relations with colleagues Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

    Kohl, after more than a few consultations with Obama, will announce his position this week — perhaps even today.
    June 03, 2008 10:48 AM

  4. I think it’s a bit more complex than a re-run of Aus 2007.
    For starters, Howard was nowhere near as much on the nose as GWB is. Happy to justify that statement – some other time when I am less tired – if anyone disputes it.
    Obama is a much more novel figure, by virtue of skin colour if nothing else, than Rudd was (Rudd tried to make himself appear to be a younger, more in touch version of Howard, in appealing to swinging voters).
    The fact that voting isn’t compulsory is a whole different dynamic as well (very good for Obama I would have thought).
    But, crucially, McCain is not Bush, and assertions that this would be a “third term for Bush” are grossly exaggerated in my view, and I suspect independent US voters will agree with me.
    Also, the Dems have controlled Congress for two years now.
    Where does that all leave us? Not sure, so let’s sit back and enjoy!

  5. “Appeaser” is a hard sell for McCain for many reasons. Obama has a solid argument on the whole foreign policy arena – but I think must link in the cost of the war to the US’ economic woes much more aggressively

    “Character” – ie. Wright. Guilt by association – like Burke and Trade Union stuff in the Aussie election didn’t work. Dunno if the working class white segment can really be swayed by this – but I guess the Repubs have to punt it hard and hope it sticks

    “Liberal” – would ordinarily be the best argument, especially economically, but the country is amenable to Health Care reform – and with economic conditions so bad, Repubs have a credibility problem. As above, Obama can cherry-pick himself as an economic conservative compared to McCain just on Iraq withdrawal.

    “Change” – started for Obama as a positive campaign point, but is increasingly a negative campaign point for him. But there are lots of legs in that!

    “Revenge” – Hilary supporters/women who just hate him because he’s won… this is the most interesting and possibly pivotal segment (how large it is really I don’t know). Obama has to overcome this – and is much more likely to be able to do so with a positive rather than negative foundation? McCain has to tap into it as hard as he can (thinking how, there must be a few ways to try)

    “Turnout” – has to get Af-Am’s and youngsters to vote, along with maximising reasons for why the Repub base shouldn’t be motivated to vote. Has thematic and narrative dimensions too.

    I’d go with the 60% odds in Obama’s favour right now – but this can swing quickly depending on what narrative sticks in the above dimensions. He will have to work very hard to keep it together – this assuming that McCain does the best job that he can do in his own campaign, which I wouldn’t bet the house on?

  6. Catrina

    Its breaking news on Fox. She will conced but technically won’t halt her campaign(fundraising to cover debt…and of course the hope of a stray bullet before August). She will make a special speech about health too apparently….surprise surprise.

  7. WOW – that’s fantastic if true… good on her (I hope her conciliatory tones make up for recent harmful rhetoric). Now, to make her VP or not???

  8. McCain’s legislative record is an interesting issue. The guy’s done deals with everyone and changed his mind on plenty of things. I actually see this as a plus – JM Keynes and all that – but the Dems may be able to paint it as a negative.
    Obama’s legislative record can only be a minus in my view. Sure he didn’t vote for the war. Didn’t vote for much else either.
    Obama is the sort of guy you can imagine turning things around in a major way, for the good. But you can also imagine him being out of his depth (in a Jimmy Carter sort of way, perhaps?). It’s a tantalising choice.

  9. Don’t believe the democratic majority legislatures had a lot of time for Carter or Clinton relative to their own base of power & interest.

    Can Obama be different? If he has coattails on which Dem senators & congresspeople pick up lots of seats – that’d help a lot. That Pelosi seems to have been in his corner (or was it not in Clinton’s corner?!) would help, but she surely has to go… has been pretty dreadful as a Speaker (along with Reid)

    His choice of VP could help a lot – if he could pick someone who is respected and works hard with the house leaders. This would be my preference for him (“go for glory”), but pragmatic state electoral concerns may well hold sway in his choice

  10. Cat – its a question of pragmatic vs going for glory…

    maybe she’ll settle for him picking Evan Bayh, but would prefer that democrat legislative powerhouse to help him along in office (who is that? probably a senator, maybe richardson/dodds/biden). But would rather he win at the end of the day, to be honest.

  11. 0% chance of Hillary being VP.

    Completely kills him as a candidate. Will not happen.

    I stand by my earlier suggestion that she will get a Health Czar portfolio.

    Obama’s concession on health policy would have already been made weeks ago to get Edwards on board.

  12. LOL

    Terry “douchebag” McAuliffe has just rung into Fox News and completely denied the AP release.



  13. Supwerdelegate Update
    Congressman Olver endorses Obama for president.

    This is a man with conviction …

    His wife, Rose, who is the chairwoman of women studies at Amherst College, and his daughter, Martha, both support Obama and did very early on in the primary season, the congressman said.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2080, needs 37 to close the deal
    Clinton: 1916.5, needs too much to count

    Post contest pool estimated at 205.5 and Obama just 19 delegates away from a victory parade.

    Associated Press Writer

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Hillary Rodham Clinton will concede Tuesday night that Barack Obama has the delegates to secure the Democratic nomination, campaign officials said, effectively ending her bid to be the nation’s first female president.

    The former first lady will stop short of formally suspending or ending her race in her speech in New York City. She will pledge to continue to speak out on issues like health care. But for all intents and purposes, the two senior officials said, the campaign is over.

    Most campaign staff will be let go and will be paid through June 15, said the officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to divulge her plans.

  15. Traffic on the DCW …

    Another news release… big bold print from clinton herself…

    She WILL NOT conceed the nomination tonight. She WILL NOT conceed tonight. She will however admit that Obama has the delegate count to clinch the nomination. There will be NO CONCESSION SPEACH TONIGHT. She still wants the VP seat, as well as some say on the platform before she conceeds. What it boils down to is this… give me what I want or I will drag this out forever.

  16. Superdelegate Update
    Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (MI) for Obama

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2080.5, needs 36.5 to close the deal
    Clinton: 1916.5, needs more than she can get

    Post contest pool estimated at 205 and Obama just 18.5 delegates away from a victory parade.

  17. Superdelegate Update

    DNC Debbie Dingell (MI) and DNC Richard Wiener (MI) for Obama.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2081.5, needs 35.5 to win
    Clinton: 1916.5, needs 200.5 to win

  18. Superdelegate Update

    DNC Jennifer DeChant (ME) for Obama.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2082.5, needs 34.5 to win
    Clinton: 1916.5, needs 200.5 to win

  19. According to James Clyburn, Pelosi will not be endorsing today – instead she’s planning on something tomorrow. I.e. the Pelosi Factor shouldn’t be factored into tonight’s equation. That means the Obama target for nomination today is a projected 16.5 additional delegates.

  20. Delegate Update

    One of Edwards delegates has crossed over to the Obama brigade.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2083, needs 34 to win
    Clinton: 1916.5, needs 200.5 to win

  21. Superdelegate Update

    DNC Joyce Beatty (OH) endorses Obama.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2084, needs 33 to win
    Clinton: 1916.5, needs 200.5 to win

  22. Superdelegate Update

    DNC Kwame Kilpatrick (MI) endorses Obama.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2084.5, needs 32.5 to win
    Clinton: 1916.5, needs 200.5 to win

  23. Superdelegate Update

    DNC Debra Kozikowski (MA) endorses Obama.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2085.5, needs 31.5 to win
    Clinton: 1916.5, needs 200.5 to win

  24. Superdelegate Update

    Rep. John Spratt (SC) endorses Obama.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2086.5, needs 30.5 to win
    Clinton: 1916.5, needs 200.5 to win

  25. ATLANTA (AP) – Former President Carter says he’ll endorse Democrat Barack Obama after the polls close on the final primaries.

    Carter told The Associated Press on Tuesday: “The fact is the Obama people already know they have my vote when the polls close tonight.” Carter spoke to the AP after addressing the Georgia World Congress Center.

  26. Superdelegate Update

    DNC Jon Ausman (FL) endorses Clinton (0.5 vote).

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2086.5, needs 30.5 to win
    Clinton: 1917, needs 200 to win

  27. WASHINGTON (AP) – Hillary Rodham Clinton has told congressional colleagues she would be open to becoming Barack Obama’s vice presidential nominee, saying she would consider it if it would help Democrats win the White House.

    Clinton, a New York senator, made the comment on a conference call with other New York lawmakers Tuesday, according a participant on the call.

    The senator’s remarks came in response to a question from Democratic Rep. Nydia Velazquez who said she believed the best way for Obama to win over key voting blocs, including Hispanics, would be for him to choose Clinton as his running mate.

    “I am open to it,” Clinton replied, if it would help the party’s prospects in November.

  28. Some background info filtering in on the Clinton VP comment (ref. #2091) – apparently it was a comment from Clinton in response to a question from someone in the audience. I.e. its not a media statement as such.

  29. Superdelegate Update

    DNC John Perez (CA) endorsed Obama.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2087.5, needs 29.5 to win
    Clinton: 1917, needs 200 to win

  30. Superdelegate Update

    DNC Carnelia Fondren (MS) endorsed Obama.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2088.5, needs 28.5 to win
    Clinton: 1917, needs 200 to win

  31. Superdelegate Update

    Jimmy Carter (GA) endorses Obama.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2089.5, needs 27.5 to win
    Clinton: 1917, needs 200 to win


  32. Superdelegate Update

    DNC Tina Abbott (MI) endorses Obama (0.5 vote).

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2090, needs 27 to win
    Clinton: 1917, needs 200 to win

  33. Superdelegate Update

    DNC Ben Johnson (DC) and DNC Kamil Hasan (CA) switching from Clinton to Obama.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2092, needs 25 to win
    Clinton: 1915, needs 202 to win

  34. Obama Announces Support from Edwards Pledged Delegates

    By Sam Graham-Felsen – Jun 3rd, 2008 at 5:12 pm EDT

    CHICAGO, IL—The Obama Campaign today announced that the following delegates pledged to former Senator John Edwards have committed to vote for Senator Obama at the Democratic National Convention. With today’s announcement, every delegate pledged to Senator Edwards in Iowa (four delegates), New Hampshire (four delegates) and South Carolina (eight delegates) will be voting for Senator Obama at the National Convention. In addition, 10 of the 13 Edwards delegates from Florida will be voting for Senator Obama at the National Convention.

    The updated roster adds ten delegates today to Obama’s delegate total, raising it to 2,099.5 and leaving the campaign only 18.5 delegates away from clinching the nomination at 2,118.

    Full list here:

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