Montana and South Dakota minus one week

The Democratic primaries campaign limps on: Puerto Rico on Sunday, Montana and South Dakota next Wednesday (our time).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,238 thoughts on “Montana and South Dakota minus one week”

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  3. Will the Clintons put their heart and soul into helping Obama win in November, or is Hillary really hoping for a McCain win so she has another shot in 2012?

  5. 100
    WorkToRule

    yeah, it’s 3am, Obama’s kids are asleep, and the phone rings in the Whitehouse. Who do you want to answer that call?

    Bill: It’s your deal Barrack, let Hillary get off her fat ass and get it. She wanted to be Veep.

  6. Ron at 85

    Mate – that’s reductio ad absurdum.

    Read all the polls – they’re excellent qualitative value for the good ones (or aggregates thereof)
    Look at the simulations – it shows the difference between the polls and markets (and food for though of future market movements – do markets in some states follow the polls beyond the variance, and in others do markets lead the polls – all worthy brainfood)

    Look at the strategies, indulge in the political plays – it’s all part of the beautiful spectrum of electoral politics.

    All I’m saying is that polls in the US arent very good, and in terms of predictive value – go to the markets as your first port of call (but certainly not your only port of call)

  7. 103
    Progressive

    Tantalizing, waiting for HillBilly to eat crow and start hollerin’ for Obama, ain’t it?

  8. I’d presume the Obama camp will have enough SD’s come out b/w now and June 3 so that he is well above the 2025 line – or wherever the line is re-drawn after the May 31 ruling on MI an FL.

    I guess things are on hold so as not to be seen to be “forcing” Clinton out – but the mood of the party is to end this thing ASAP.

    When do people think the SD’s in the wings will make the move?

  9. Finns @ 102
    Sadly, just another boring astute observer; butterfly landed if you like. Find net & have fun.

    We’ll let you know when to laugh. OK? Promise.Too easy.

  10. GG, another nail has gone into the coffin of “new politics”.

    So much for a new kind of US politics

    By Clive Crook

    Published: May 25 2008 17:58 | Last updated: May 25 2008 17:58

    Ferguson illustrationTwo weeks ago in this space I expressed the naive hope that a US presidential contest between John McCain and Barack Obama might be a cut above ordinary politics. Neither man, to put it mildly, is the conventional type. Both are men of principle, with strong convictions – but with a pragmatic streak as well, open-minded, committed to bipartisan co-operation and running against business as usual. With luck, I said, they would treat each other with respect and steer clear of ad hominem smearing. For once there might be an election about the issues.

    Perhaps I misspoke. Mr Obama, increasingly certain of his nomination as the Democratic candidate despite Hillary Clinton’s refusal to yield, has begun turning his attention to Mr McCain. His principal line of attack is that the Republican nominee stands for “four more years of George Bush”. Mr McCain, meanwhile, has fastened on his rival’s avowed willingness to meet rogue leaders such as Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad “without preconditions” and charged him with a taste for appeasement.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aff0f36e-2a53-11dd-b40b-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

  12. #109, codger – so what do u want to be? i be kind to you, i let you choose which one(s) suit you the best, take your time, dont worry, take your time, dont hurry:

    stupid, blockhead, cretin, dodo, dolt, donkey, dope, dork

    slang

    , dumbbell, dummy, dunce, fathead, goon, half-wit, ignoramus, imbecile, jackass, knothead, moron, nincompoop, ninny, nitwit, numskull (or numbskull), pinhead, simpleton, stock, turkey, a ning nong

  13. Codger Worktorule my P and andrew

    what you guys cann’t handle is
    I’ve demonstrated here for 3 months that the by far more electable candidate was Hillary which none of the Obamabots have ever been able to intellectually challenge…and yous are embarassed because ‘the best candidate” argument logically is the by far the most electable.

    So when yous say the delegate leader must be the best candidate you know it looks so lame because it is.

    Then when I demonstate Obama has rorted the delegate numbers by excluding FL & MI and played the system to get his delegate lead solely on 90%+ black votes your embarassment becomes ‘bitter’

    I should also add there’s another net 46 delegates in Obama’s lead that Obama got in four 4undemocratically run Caucus’s

    So Obama’s delgate lead of 2% is very ‘tainted’ vs the ‘best’ candidate the by far more electable , Hillary , so no wonder yous are ‘bitter’ that your perceived victory if it occurs will be shaby and hollow. They’re the facts

  14. Speaking about abortions! (One shouldn’t, but how ironic! LOL)

    Quick, check the odds on Sebelius!

    Robert Novak, friend to Neoconservatives and general asswipe:

    There is substantial evidence she has been involved in laundering abortion industry money for distribution to Kansas Democrats. Kansas is the fiercest state battleground for abortion wars, making Kathleen Sebelius the national pro-choice poster girl.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/a_vicepresident_for_abortion.html

    …it’s a tasty hit piece titled “A Vice-President For Abortion”, so it ain’t subtle.

    OK, I’ll check her odds…

  17. When do people think the SD’s in the wings will make the move?

    Puerto Rico is Sunday and the following Tuesday we have the State of Montana and good old South Dakota. I’m expecting 40% of the remaining delegates will come out of the closet before the end that week (i.e. the 7/6). I figure the remaining 60% (172 on current rules) will choose to stay undeclared up to the convention (keep in mind that little group only represents something like 4% of the super delegate pool). The 40% that come out will be equal to 114 delegates in the 13 days (if my thinking is right) – and that’s more than sufficient to close any arguments (irrespective of best or worst case scenario).

  19. Intrade don’t have Sebelius except as ‘other’ and the shortest odds are for…what for it, ‘other’.

    Hill’s well down the list as you might suppose! LOL

  23. Possum

    #106

    Its your perogative to ignore my suggestion in #43 namely that the psepholgical methodology listed in my #19 point 6/ to predict election results is just as sound as prediction markets. You have neither agreed nor disagreed

    You spent many blogs with diogenes supporting prediction markets & later with me , and when I’ve put an alternative option to prediction markets and you don’t comment then mate that’s reductio ad absurdum.

  24. The Finns, your namecalling will not alter the fact that its the delegate count that matters and Hillary cant win. She has FAILED to make the electoral vote argument and you trotting it out repeatedly wont change that. So call me what your like. My candidate has the numbers and your’s doesnt. Your most welcome to join us in the real world

  25. The Dear Leader was right all along for not stopping over in Tokyo on the way to Beijing. Even Taiwan now knows which side of the bread is buttered. Japan sometimes still view Taiwan as her “colony”, especially the looney right. “Bad will” indeed.

    Disappointment in Tokyo over Ma’s inaugural speech
    By Chang Mao-Sen and Fan Cheng-hsiang
    Monday, May 26, 2008, Page 3

    President Ma Ying-jeou’s failure to mention Japan in his inaugural address last week disappointed the large Japanese delegation, who had high hopes that Ma would continue the Japan-friendly line he took during his presidential campaign and after winning the election.

    Many had expected Ma to pledge to bolster ties with Japan and reiterate his support for the US-Japan Security Alliance in the speech, Kyodo news agency reported.

    Considering Ma’s focus on Japan at key junctures during his presidential campaign, the omission raised eyebrows. But Ma’s even stronger focus on China, whose relations with Japan are often strained, goes a long way to explaining why Ma apparently felt Japan — a key, albeit unofficial, ally — did not deserve mention, the agency quoted experts as saying.

    “China definitely played a factor,” said Luo Fu-chuan, Taiwan’s former representative to Japan.

    The Sankei Shimbun reported on Friday of a translation mishap at Ma’s lunch meeting with the Japanese delegation at the Presidential Office following the inauguration on Tuesday, which inadvertently turned the “goodwill” of the Japanese delegation into “bad will.”

    The report said that as Ma had made no mention of Tokyo in his inaugural address, Takeo Hiranuma, leader of the Japanese delegation to the inauguration and head of the Japan-ROC Parliamentarian’s Council, told Ma during the lunch meeting that “Japan will do its utmost, and I hope that you will mention Japan in your next inaugural speech.”

    http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2008/05/26/2003412991

  26. Ron, how do you do it?

    With a forked stick? Wave it over a list of candidate’s names?

    See which way it divines?

    Impressive, can you do it for water too?

    (Maybe you can get a Hillary autographed banjo after the convention? I’m told there will be lots and lots left over.)

  27. Possum daliiance with termites leads to branch ‘bastardo’…& as a wise old gum once whispered to me…’that leads to much scattering of ‘butterfly’ hunters…’

    Not a good look on the PC front…

  30. Take heart, Hillary-boosters– you should be trading intrade to the high heavens, not running it down. There’s something very interesting happening there that you’ll love.

    Most of the states’ markets are around where you’d expect although there’s a lot of ‘silly money’ on states marked as a 5-10% chance for the losing side, where in reality they’re far less than that. A minor surprise is Ohio which is an, I think, optimistic 62:38 to the Dems.

    However, the monster surprises as Arkansas being listed as a 23% probability of a Dem pickup, and West Virginia a 20% pickup. Obama is going to get pumped in both of them. We can say that with some certainty even 5 months out. Even if Hillary were a 100% chance to win them if she were candidate (and she would be far from that), the markets now have her as something like a 7% chance of being the candidate. All together now: The Smart Money Knows Something We Don’t Know, but rather than scaring the horses (and decreasing their profit margins) by plunging huge amounts directly on the Hillary vs Obama race, they’re taking money on the side by filtering it through the November Arkansas and W Virginia markets!

    Gee, do I have to supply all of your conspiracy theories for you?

    Actually, seems not: Bill is out there supplying some of his own– “I can’t believe it. It is just frantic the way they are trying to push and pressure and bully all these superdelegates to come out. ‘Oh, this is so terrible: the people they want her. Oh, this is so terrible: she is winning the general election and he is not. Oh my goodness, we have to cover this up’.”

    http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/bill-clinton-ha.html

    Hard to know what to say in response to that, other than: Bill, there are some lovely men in the corner who are very interested in your theory that the people’s desperate yearning for HRC is being covered up. They’d like to share a few words with you about the Illuminati and 9/11 in return.

  31. Kirribilli Removals: Hillary’s concession speech will be one to watch. Will she be gracious, or bitter and twisted? If she is sincere about helping Obama win in November and does her bit during the campaign, I’d have no objection to a job for her in an Obama administration(Health Secretary?), but not VP!

    Good night all! Play nice while I’m tucked up in bed LOL

  33. Interesting: Obama is even competitive against McCain in Montana – hardly a hotbed of radical leftwing nutters.

  35. Simon H – on a serious point that will no doubt stir some consternation, the smart money knows that stuff about Obama needing a majority of the trailer park vote to win isnt worth a pinch of psephological pshit… so to speak :mrgreen:

    You want a real mindblowing Intrade figure – check out Mississippi.

  36. Progressive at 131
    I posted the YouTube prelude to Hillary’s concession speech a couple of days ago – did you see it?

  37. Possum: the Obama people think they’ve got a chance of winning Georgia and Missisippi if the black voter turnout in November is huge.

  38. “Ron at 123 – I just disagree with your point 6. I think following the data works better”

    You are entitled tothe first sentence but not the 2nd. My # 19 point 6 is full of varying psephological data , did you mean following the’ money’ or having a go

  40. Ron #113: “I’ve demonstrated here for 3 months that the by far more electable candidate was Hillary ”

    Which reminds me of that famous editorial from a newspaper in country Victoria in August 1914: “Time and again we have warned the Kaiser”.

  43. 114 KR

    That article by Novak is the clearest indication yet of who Obama’s VP will be.

    Get a bet on Sibellius now.

    Novak is the go to guy for a Repug pre-emptive hit piece. The trouble is they are fighting old wars. They have lost the abortion war in a big way.

    Obama wants Sibellius as his VP. And it just could work out as an effective way to smooth over the aggrieved female Hillary loyalists. What better way to galvanise Democratic women voters than old troglodyte Conservatives and their never ending abortion lectures.

    Obama/Sibellius 08….and at least 300 electoral college votes.

    Bring it on.

  45. POss #135 It’s all about the base innit? Silly buggers think the US is Aus and it’s all about some US equivalent of the aspirationals.

  46. Possum
    “No Ron, I just mean following the data free from wishful thinking”

    Possum , that unsubstantiated allegation can be made against anyone putting up a value judgement based on psephological grounds. Are you suggesting you know I do because that is the implication intended or unintended. you may as well be clear

  47. 143
    HarryH

    I’d say she’d be right up there with a chance and Novak is going to try and kneecap any likely contender.

    It’s an argument that appeals to the Catholics and religious conservatives, who’ve hardly been big on liberal Democrats since, oh well, Kennedy maybe? LOL

    I doubt it’s wrecking the Democrat’s base is my point.

  48. HarryH at 143

    Kansas is the fiercest state battleground for abortion wars, making Kathleen Sebelius the national pro-choice poster girl.

    And there was I thinking that the abortion wars at PB were over and done with.

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