Montana and South Dakota minus one week

The Democratic primaries campaign limps on: Puerto Rico on Sunday, Montana and South Dakota next Wednesday (our time).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,238 comments on “Montana and South Dakota minus one week”

Comments Page 4 of 45
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  3. KR at 142 – Mississippi is at a 75% plus probability on Intrade of going Dem of not an insubstantial trading volume.

    RB – the Base get’s you in the game, everyone else gives you the margin. US politics is always two games in one;get your base out and attack the middle.

    The Repubs problem is that the middle and what has become of their base are allergic to each other over most things.

    Ron – too often, the grand plans of political campaigners, the propaganda that accompanies it (that whole “leaked sources said” bizzo) as well as leaps of faith on the demographic bandwagon just arent compatible with the data – and when they conflict I just choose to go with the data

  4. Sibellius got elected in ruby red Kansas in 2002 and then re-elected in 06 in a landslide.
    She is hardly on the nose to republican/Conservatives.

    Attacking her over abortion will be a vote loser for Republicans overall in the General. But it’s all they know. Part of why their Party is decaying.

    Bring it on.

  7. Possum

    I also follow the data , even when its anti hillary as it was & is in some States. your implication could be taken that I do not. Thats your opinion but as i’ve already said anyone can say that about anyone else without proof

  8. Harry,
    I agree. You’d think that the Repuigs would have attacked her in Kansas over that already, and if it didn’t work in Kansas it’s not gonna work anywhere else. THat being said, her speech in reply to Bush’s State of the Union was apparently boring as batshit.

  9. Independants en masse held their noses in 2004 and voted Republican because of national security as a result of Sep11 2001.

    After the ensuing 4 years of Republican/Bush disaster, those Independants are going to be in a punishing mood.

  10. RB@158 – It was a real bloody snoozer. She ain’t no Obama, but then again, just about everyone will have a charisma deficiency standing next to him. Solid and dull mightn’t be a bad way to play it.

  11. RB

    I think boring as batshit is just fine alongside the Illinois excitement machine.

    She is female,conservative,progressive,white,stable,respected,popular.

  12. Ron at 146

    Possum , that unsubstantiated allegation can be made against anyone putting up a value judgement based on psephological grounds.

    Ron, the general rule is that a comma (i.e. ‘,’) is not preceded by whitespace. In fact if you review a broad spectrum literature you will find very few if any occurrences of a comma preceding whitespace. The comma is a valuable and useful punctuation device because it separates the structural elements of sentences into manageable segments. Read on for further self development.

    http://owl.english.purdue.edu/handouts/grammar/g_comma.html

  13. Blardy hell – thanks KR

    My (ahem) apparently not very good data gathering script for the Intrade site is .. well, shit (that’ll teach me to write it myself!). Or else Systat is having import problems – entirely possible with that useless thing, but my money is on me being a poor programmer.

    I just did the old fashioned copy and past into excel, cleaned it up and everything else in Fridays data entry is right – except Mississippi. Mind boggles.

    And here I was talking horseshit about Mi all day!

    Ha!

    Mea Culpa

    Next up – How Hillary will win the Presidency!

  14. 153

    KR at 142 – Mississippi is at a 75% plus probability on Intrade of going Dem of not an insubstantial trading volume.

    Possum, that is Minnesota, not Mississippi.

  16. 162
    Catrina

    My dear Oracle, the content, if it could be called thus, IS the white space!

    You have completely missed the point of his posts!

    Oh, and the commas, they are integral additions to that very same white space.

  18. 164
    GhostWhoVotes

    Why thanks GWV, that puts a complexion on things! LOL

    If Mississippi burns…well, you can write your own punchline! LOL

  19. Ron, I’m not having a go at you – lifes too much fun to f*ck around with that stuff. Just saying that I give more weight to hard data than soft data.

    Assuming of course that I can get my act together and actually look at the hard data that is of some semblance of reality!

  21. “Next up – How Hillary will win the Presidency!”
    The Tzarina will die leaving her young son to inherit. He will have an adolescent crush on the Clinton’s and will switch allegiances. It will be the miracle of the house of Arkansas/Long Island/Pennsylvania/insert attachment…!

  22. KR at 166
    I don’t have time to write another decoder!
    I’ll just put that down to another aborted attempt to change the world.

  24. Ghosty – My Minnesota entry has 76, which is what it was late Friday. I’ve somehow got this cosmic entry for Missi at 77.5 for the Dems! I’m honestly f^*$#d if I know how that happened!

  25. 174
    Possum Comitatus

    ya gave me a fright, because I’d looked at those state numbers earlier and did a double take when you put that up! LOL

    So I went and checked again, and guessed you’d blooped.

  26. The comma is a valuable and useful punctuation device because it separates the structural elements of sentences into manageable segments. Read on for further self development.

    http://owl.english.purdue.edu/handouts/grammar/g_comma.html

    Another valuable and useful punctuation device is the hyphen, which is to be used when employing prefixes – an example being self-development.

    http://owl.english.purdue.edu/handouts/grammar/g_hyphen.html

    Now, please stop being a pain in the arse.

  28. Possum Comitatus #141
    “No Ron, I just mean following the data free from wishful thinking”

    Possum that could have been taken as a go at me which I was not going to object to actually because I never have objected to any insults here. I just wanted to establish whether you were trying to or if it was unintendedly left vague

    Possum Comitatus #169
    “Ron, I’m not having a go at you – lifes too much fun to f*ck around with that stuff. Just saying that I give more weight to hard data than soft data. ”

    Accept you were not having a go. Soft data is useless to me. Now I haven’t looked at that Intrade link yet you gave but if MI be 75% for BO I don’t see the value , I think MI will remain ‘red’ unless there is an incredible ‘black turnout’ , do not see it

  31. For three years in a row over 30 percent of Mississippi’s residents have been classified as obese. In the most recent (2006), 22.8 percent of its children were also classified as obese. This makes Mississippi the most overweight U.S. state.

    Wiki

    …the things you find on the net! LOL

  33. KR #181 “That ole man river he just keep rolling the inhabitants along.” And with that I will roll my not-as-thin-as-it-used-to-be carcass into the sack.

  34. Cat, I pull the data from the site into an excel format which are given abbreviations – then import that into Systat (which is the program I’m using at the moment for my US stuff – it’s import capabilities are limited in practice, hence the two stage process) where the States abbreviations are given a number. I stuffed up the Systat numbering regime (typo actually) – which is good because it took all of 10 seconds to fix it.

    Hooray!

    Ron – dont worry, the Missi price aint 75! (it’s actually 12.5) That’s just me being a l33t uber-typist!

    Today fumble fingers – tommorrow.. ze world!

  36. Cat asked,” Any details on where Mississippi stands on the economic spectrum?”

    The word you’re after is “rooted” – never quite recovered from that whole civil war thing – although there were hints of a resurgence in WW2 and the 60s.Just didn’t quite pan out .

  38. 182
    Catrina

    They’ve got booze laws that are really all over the shop (except Sundays! LOL) but this is truly amazing:

    Mississippi is one of only a few states to have decriminalized the possession of marijuana, so that possession of 30 grams or less of marijuana is punishable only by a fine of $100 – $250 for the first offense with no jail time.

    …how odd.

  39. Poss

    Considering you still retain amateur status and aren’t accepting google ads or site donations, we shall forgive your momentary incompetance.

    Continue on.

  41. Possum at 186 and Kirrie before that
    So what’s with this overwight thing? If conditions are really that bad – how come we don’t have lots and lots of skinny Mississippi kids running around in the dirt?

  42. well Possum , scolling back there is a suggestion i think perhaps the 75% refers to MN , thats a solid blue State for both Hillary & Obama & usually in the past as well , so 75% seems conservative to me

  45. Kirri at 188
    To put this into perspective – I need to know what 30 grams is going to set me back in Mississippi.

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