Yes, (West) Virginia …

Democratic voters in West Virginia will today elect 28 delegates by some method or other. I can’t be bothered looking into it because the New York Post reports that Hillary Clinton is “toast”, and papa says, “if you see it in the Post, it’s so”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,725 comments on “Yes, (West) Virginia …”

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  1. 1648
    Robert Bollard

    You’d have to conclude that this site is pretty sloppy RB.

    Nice work, cogently presented and irrefutably logical.

    A pity that logic is not Gruffy’s strong suit, though eh?

  2. GG are you a complete dropkick or just putting on an act? Polls are useful for predicting election results – that’s what I’m doing here. They aren’t a basis on which to make a decision about whether to go to war.

  3. RB,

    So polls are only for the true purpose for which the Commissariat have deigned appropriate?

    There are different types of polls. Quantitative which measure how much, how often etc. Then there are the attitudinal ones which measure the underlying feelings of a given population about a given subject. Politicians of all hues use both as tools in their decision making processes. Otherwise they wouldn’t be representing the views of the people who vote.

    I hope you are not shocked by this revelation.

    Love your invective.


    You are rapidly becoming a parody. Hours of fun to follow. I love it how you engage meaningfully with opposing views.

  4. GG: “You are rapidly becoming a parody. Hours of fun to follow. I love it how you engage meaningfully with opposing views.”

    Stop talking to yourself!

  5. That’s right GG, “engage meaningfully with opposing views”. Your masterful psephological defence of’s polling methodology is impressive.

  6. RB,

    So decision time for me.

    Do I take on face value the insidiously biased analysis of a tiresome old marxist like yourself trying hard to convice us he is a sheep in sheep clothing.


    Do I take on face value the posts of a site which has a track record for accuracy, is remarkably comprehensive and provides a balanced commentary.

    Hint: KR often writes that I like coloured pictures.

    BTW. The other thing about polls is trends. Whether Vote master is accurate in absolutes is irrelevant. The trend on Votemaster is, if anything, against Obama. I suspect this is at the heart of your frenzied passion to discredit that site.

  7. You just can’t engage with the arguments can you? I’m a Marxist so I must be wrong. If so then it should be easy to tear my analysis apart. But instead, I’m wrong because you don’t like my politics.
    Also, apparently, I’M “biased”.
    So long for now. I’m off to teach a bunch of undergrads about World War One. The polls said that one was a winner too.

  8. ps – There has been no clear trend in electoral-vote. It’s bounced backwards and forwards over the last few months.

  9. GG

    Wasn’t RB’s point that the trend on votemaster was towards Obama on polling (in the states he mentioned), but that this was not showing in how the electoral college votes were allocated?

    I don’t think he was trying to discredit an admittedly great site, but rather question the consistency of its methodology.

  10. Gotta love Dick Morris’ summary of the Obama v McCain contest:

    “To sum it up: A candidate who cannot get elected is being nominated by a party that cannot be defeated, while a candidate who is eminently electable is running as the nominee of a party doomed to defeat.”

    Not surpisingly for Morris these days (he used to be on Bill Clnton’s re-election team) he’s arguing for a McCain win.

  11. Yo Ho Ho,

    Diogenes wrote to the site owner some weeks ago and got a courteous reply. If people have genuine queries, why not do the same instead of guessing and casting astertions about methodology?

  12. 1664
    Greensborough Growler

    Gruffy, you really are thick, ain’t ya?

    RB was not ‘guessing’ and he was not ‘casting astertions’ whatever they are.

    He made a reasoned argument with evidence, which he cited.

    A huge pity you are both in capable of recognising a basic use of logic and of using it.

    You’ve really slipped into complete idiotic abuse, and you have the gall to say that I have nothing to say!

    You’ve become a tiresome joke old son. Go and do something useful with yourself.

  13. GG

    Without wanting to speak for Robert, what i assumed he was getting at was that if there are problems with the data, they may be problems with the result it implies (that Obama would lose to McCain).

    I’d suggest he brought this up because the electoral college vote on that site has often been pointed to as evidence that Clinton is more electable than Obama.

    Knowing nothing about polling methodology, I can’t pretend to be able to assess his claim about how the polls were being assessed at that site. But given that a variety of sites (with differing political biases) are pointing to much different electoral college counts, i think it’s a valid question to raise.

  14. Just peeking in from a borrowed computer at work before I teach. All I have to say is that I have never cast a Cistercian. I occasionally fling Dominicans, but then doesn’t everyone?

  15. 1668
    Greensborough Growler S

    Gruffy, I’m neither poor nor old.

    You however are a tired old joke, a parody of your former self.

    And no, I don’t bother checking your links for even more vacuous ‘humour’ or whatever it is you think you do.

    Like I said, you need to take a good look at yourself before you end up like Ron.

    Think about it.

  16. 1670
    Ferny Grover

    He’s the bitter candidate, appealing to those whose main concerns are ‘god, gays and guns’…exactly as described.

    I’m just trying to imagine Macca holding his nose while baiting his hook with Huckelberry.

  17. Obama’s money machine is driving Macca into the arms of Bush for funds:

    To that end, Republican officials said they were enlisting President Bush, a formidable fund-raiser who has raised more than $36 million this year for Republican candidates and committees, for three events on Mr. McCain’s behalf. They will appear together at a fund-raiser in Phoenix on May 27,


    …and the RNC.

    This makes Macca’s message “I’m not with stupid” much harder to sell.

  18. 1674 KR
    Just how many contortions can a 72 year old be expected to do??? The guy must be the original elastic man.

    An odd couple indeed.

  19. G’day all – With the backroom money types getting together, someone is going to be bowing out fairly soon, and just after 3 June looks like the time, given these discussions about only one Democratic Party campaign team:

    Rival Camps Plan Inevitable Merger
    Top fundraisers for Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have begun private talks aimed at merging the two candidates’ teams, not waiting for the Democratic nominating process to end before they start preparations for a hard-fought fall campaign.

    Your selected concession date is looking good FernyG at this stage, although if Hillary hangs on a bit after 3 June, the absent Asanque could scoop the bottles.

    At the risk of embarrassing Jen, Dyno, EC and especially myself, the selections are:
    JV 23 April @ 1000
    Jen 24 April @ 1000
    Dyno 24 April @ 1400
    EC 25 April 0900
    HarryH 7 May @ 1200
    Pancho 8 May @ 1200
    Ferny 3 June @ 2145
    Asanque 10 June 1400.

  20. 1681 JV
    My favoured guess was for a week or so after 3 June, but there was something in the original wording of the challenge that compelled me to pick 3 June. It may be fortuitous….but I still think Asanque is in the box seat.

  21. KR,

    Dispensing sage advice now are we. Physician, heal thyself.

    All five of your posts this morning: 1650, 1651, 1653, 1665 and 1671 (out of a total of 23 posts) slag me off in some way (which I don’t mind nor care about). However, you could at least make it interesting for the other PBers.

    You must really be peeved. You want to tell us why?

  22. Actually Gruffy, I’ve got a four year old who does ‘attention getting behaviour’ with more finesse than you!

    Time to grow up, if it’s not too late.

    That’s it from me GG.

  23. 1685

    “went in dumb, came out dumb too” as Mr Newman would say.

    Smart fellas eh? Word gets around of that little bit of cultural insensitivity and the locals are going to be planting more IED’s for you.

    Not much in the way of brains, you’d have to say.

    Good on Michael Ware for reporting it. (He’s one of our Ozzie blokes whose spent a lot of time reporting from Iraq.)

  24. I loved the way those culturally sensitive Islamo fascists drove those aeroplanes into the Twin Towers. Also, the loving touch of suicide bombers walking into crowded markets and killing hundreds of innocent civilians.

    Blowing the shit out of a book of the Koran really balances out that evil.

  25. Now there’s irony for you.

    The WaPo, one day has an OpEd piece no less, that gushes on about Obama and Edwards being girly boys and almost kissing on stage (I kid you not, it was ripe rubbish), and the next day, an article about some woman who supports Clinton getting all toey about the fact that Clinton is the butt of jokes.

    High level journalism there, eh?

    If you didn’t know any better, you’d have to say that the WaPo is plunking for Hillary.

  26. 1692
    Ferny Grover

    Official said 75,000 but I reckon he missed a few right up the river there! LOL

    Crikey, that’s a mighty fine looking crowd.

    By the way, loved the first blogger’s comment below that article! You can feel the lovin’ they are sending the Republicans this year, can’t you?

  27. He can certainly draw a crowd. Being able to interest, inspire and get the vote out is a great asset. Bring on November

  28. Growler- get real. I am not defending the actions of terrorists. That doesn’t mean showing such disrespect to Islamic religion is ok either.
    Inane and hysterical of me I know, however your reasoned commentary is hard to match.

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