Pennsylvania minus one week

A merciful mid-campaign lull precluded the need for a “minus two weeks” thread, but things are well and truly picking up again now. Real Clear Politics’ Pennsylvania Democratic poll average has Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 47.4 per cent to 40.4 per cent, which is not as much as she would like. However, the most very recent poll from SurveyUSA puts it at 56-38 (UPDATE: Whoops, that’s not the most recent poll after all. There have been quite a few others since that have been around the RCP average). Statistical anomaly, or Obama’s elitist chickens coming home to roost? I report – you decide.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,655 comments on “Pennsylvania minus one week”

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  1. #90
    Ron Says:

    I’ve got some info on Obama which is on the public record in his own words and can not be refuted

    OK – lets call this one Rongate.

    Come on – spill the beans but please back it up:

    1. take care with your sentence construction
    2. try to keep your initial pitch small and condensed
    3. and link to some concrete evidence

    After all – we don’t need another rambling episode of Sons and Daughters.

  2. Oh , I missed your punchline of
    “Shut the bitter-gate, The horse has bolted!”

    He was leading well , his jockey was relaxed riding only hands & heels , the finishing post at Flemington was 300 metres away……

    heavens , the horse himself has steped into the 7ups-gate pot hole
    thats 7 smears worse that the bittergate one and the Stewards (SD’s) are

    starting to mumble he’s p*ssed off the whole mid west , insiluted gun owners , and anyone who goes to a mainstrean church

    perhaps he’s not up to weight for age class , cause McCain won’t p*ss them off

  4. For those not up to speed, Daddy has just cracked another job in media. He has been unemployed for some time and is divorced. The family has been struggling financially for some time and sacrifices have been made. His two daughters are gold medal smart asses(the action is Sep-side) and adore him, but give him an extremely hard time, although Daddy likes it that way. Petey is their pet pooch and the neddy is Danae’s alter ego.
    http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=AsV7wqCAignH5xbCVjKMJ58VvTYC

    The game goes on Dyno, because Brutusina believes she is the centre of the known universe but isn’t. And the Dem “brains-trust” havn’t the stones to tap her yet. Serious vino has been wagered on this very site as to the exact time of her drop-off date.

  5. William #99 , you are the arbitrator & the boss without question

    But I would like to leave you a thought to consider
    You know I’ve never objected to being called anything. Perhaps you are responding to Glen’s comments but am not sure he was overly upset

    My thought for consideration , is the more words you ban the more work you have and bloggers smarter than I will come up with similar words to circumvent your ruling and create more work. So may I respectfully suggest you leave a final decision under advisement

  6. Junior Senator

    I was actaully smiling when I wrote #102 thinking of EC steadfastly unwilling to reply , but realising others have walked home from a racetack having also lost their fare home

  7. No, I’d say it’s pretty much settled, Ron. Thank you for your concern however. Those who “circumvent my ruling” will be warned the first time and banned the second. On a related note, I like most of what John Quiggin has to say about comment moderation. There will be no LP-style code of conduct/bill of rights here – I reserve the right at all times to exercise my powers as arbitrarily and capriciously as my fancy takes me.

  8. #105
    Ron
    How about responding to my comment at #101? I’m confident that you do have something to back up your Rongate scenario and I’m just waiting here with baited breath.

  10. I’m not too keen on people demanding that other commenters respond to them either. In fact, I take back what I said before – I do have a bill of rights, consisting of one article: “Everybody has the right to ignore whoever they feel like ignoring”.

    Peter, I should point out that you were far from the only offender – I had something to say about this subject earlier today as well.

  11. no problem William

    I read that John Qiggin link and the comment that astonished me was

    “I’m no longer interested in, and no longer have time for, dealing with people who are rude and insulting, particularly if they are rude and insulting to me”

    He was extremely overtolerant putting up with personal rudeness & insults !

    Good night to you and all fellow pollbludgers

  12. In light of Williams fist amendment – I hereby retract my request to Ron to get up front and personal as to his latest Xgate fetish. I accept Williams advice that I have no right to call Ron out irrespective of underlying track record, and I fully respect Ron’s right to abuse the English language, subject us to very long repetitive posts, and to alienate us from concrete facts.

  18. #70 – Amigo, [Also, just for the record (and largely in response to some of the moralising above) you’re all aware that the remarks were made at a private fundraiser in a supporter’s house right?]

    – you are missing the point here big time. This makes it worse. This makes Obama looks like a real phoney. saying one thing in public and saying another in private. This is from a candidate that promised a new way of politics.

  19. Finns –
    it’s not like he said they were a bunch of f*cknucle rednecks (which i would personally agree with, being an elitist and all), but he said things that were true, and showed an understanding for people who had been let down by the system. He didn’t say anthing so bad- this is a beat up, and it will go the way of all th other attempts to discedit him,such as Pastorsaucegate: ie: nowhere.

  20. Finns, not really. It makes it crystal clear. Of course it was a stupid comment. But of course a duckshooter from Pennsylvania doesn’t think that a Chicago lawyer is like him or her. Or vice versa. This is a fact. AND if you want to make two sides here – an us and a them – then 100 million dollar Hillary is on the side of Obama (here’s a tip – keep an eye out for the gun control bill that is about to blow up in her face in a day or two’s time). The CLintons are on public record making the same points, as I note @70. This whole thing is gotcha politics by Hillary being pushed way too far, and she is only giving Obama an opportunity to present as the candidate who empathises.

  21. jen – it’s not just WHAT you say. It’s HOW, WHERE, WHEN and to WHOM you say it. They are all part of the narrative. As I said before, Obama is losing the narrative war here, especially for Nov.

  23. Agree Finns,

    It’s not always what you say, it is the way that you say it. The perception is that Obama is sniggering or mocking hard working families that are ‘doing it tough”.

    Obama needs a lesson in empathy.

  24. Finns-
    when you say losing the war I assume you mean that despite the fact that he is ahead in all the polls and going to win the nomination and then go to town on McCain and become POTUS that he is in a bad position.

  26. Pancho,

    Love your misrepresentations.

    It is more he is leading, but has not won (unless you can point to some breaking news somewhere).

  27. leading, winning, potatoes, pot-ar-toes (actually I don’t know anyone that says that). But in the interest of civility, I reject and denounce winning. He is leading in all of those categories. In most cases unassailably.

  28. Grinch-
    if it was your Girl in the same position (which I might cruelly point out – it ain’t), would you be trying to paint her as in a losing position?
    Come on guys – get with the groove.

  29. Have done a bit of a trawl across the main papers in Philadelphia to get the flavour of the local MSM response to Obama’s elitist patronising of the glorious ‘common man” of middle America – the gun-totin’, god-fearin’ native wildlife killer demographic.
    It hasn’t taken off like Hillary (the born-again beer swilling duck shooter) would like, by the look of the front pages.
    In the Philly Post-Gazette there is even an interesting article suggesting a rebound on the Clinton attack – of a racial undertone to the accusation of ‘elitism’ against Obama, akin to the old-time concept of the ‘uppity’ black – the ones who didn’t know their place:

    Sen. Barack Obama today dismissed concerns that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s repeated attacks on his comments about “bitter” voters in Pennsylvania small towns had crossed a racial line.”I don’t think there are racial overtones to the attacks going on right now.
    I think it’s politics,” he said during a town hall meeting at Washington and Jefferson College this afternoon. “This is what we do politically when we start getting behind in races and we start going on the attack.”
    The first questioner at the event raised the issue, noting that pundits and politicians had repeatedly called Mr. Obama’s comment “elitist.” The man suggested that Mr. Obama’s opponents’ true intention was to characterize the senator as “uppity,” a term often used against black people in the segregation-era south.

    http://www.post-gazette.com/

    The other Philly papers here – all quiet on the eastern front, really:

    http://www.philly.com/inquirer/

    http://www.philly.com/dailynews/

  30. Good polls, Indiana:
    Yesterday: SurveyUSA Clinton 55, Obama 39
    Today: LATimes/Bloomberg Clinton 35, Obama 40
    Swing of 21 points? Are they sure they are polling the same state?

  31. On the back of polling showing the extended Wright saga and his handling of it has actually helped Obama (see the first link below), it looks like Hillary, again, cant take a trick. Her eyes light up, she telegraphs her hand, and the Obama campaign shut her down again: fold. Gotta work on that poker face:

    Clinton losing traction over Obama in Pennsylvania, Indiana
    http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll16apr16,0,794499.story
    “Her formerly double-digit lead is now just a five-point margin in Pennsylvania, survey finds. The reduced margin makes a win for her there less significant. She trails Obama among Hoosiers.”

    Chatty Crowd Forces Clinton to Cut Speech Short
    http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/04/14/politics/fromtheroad/entry4014458.shtml
    “PHILADELPHIA — Hillary Clinton was forced to cut her normal stump speech short when a chatty and meddlesome crowd kept her from grasping their attention. Clinton, who was addressing the Philadelphia County Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, spoke for just over five minutes, despite having the press arrive almost two hours beforehand.”

  32. 128
    jaundiced view

    Like the song said JV:

    We’re rednecks, we’re keepin’ the niggers down

    …and Hillary is dogwhistling this tune. Kind of ironic really, when uber rich Senator Clinton starts calling the dark boy ‘elitist’, eh?

    But as the Slate article so delicately put it, the punters can smell BS, and Hillary is getting quite an odour about her lately.

  33. Looks like Thomas Jefferson was a Frazier Crane style elitist too. From the Post-Gazette Now News Blog:

    … America is a different country today than it was in the 18th and 19th centuries, obviously. But maybe electing an “elitist” president wouldn’t be such a bad thing:

    “As we’ve been tutored through many recent political seasons, elitists have no place in this country’s elective offices. Unless you are contemplating the late, archetypal William F. Buckley Jr., elitism is usually in the eye of the beholder, but by any definition that barrier would have disqualified at least our first five presidents from the office. Why, Thomas Jefferson played the violin, imported fine wines, collected books and, of all things, even — quick, hide the children! — spoke French. (And Italian. And read in seven languages.)”

    Is it too late for a recall vote on Thomas Jefferson?

    http://www.post-gazette.com/earlyreturns/

  35. I liked this blog, from a US site:

    I would love to see a woman in White House. It”s about time. However, not this one. It”s most unfortunate for us women that the first viable female candidate is Hillary. If she manages the government the way she did the only two real big enterprises she ever handled – Health Care and this election, it will be a disaster. She will set back women years.

    Hopefully a woman qualified on her own will emerge in near future, rather than someone on her husband”s coat tail.

    …that about nails it.

  39. 137
    jaundiced view

    It’s now showing as in ‘moderation’…bloody useless system! I can’t see why, since the ‘n’ word was used last night.

    It was a reply to your post 128. It’ll show up when William gets around to letting it out of the sin bin.

  40. 138
    Ferny Grover

    Very clever my fine frondy friend! No, but you can sense the shift of the female vote that’s getting a tad tired of her tricks. And of course it’s obvious that Obama did not run the Bosnia thing against her, yet she takes one inept slip and tries to crucify him with it.

    Her character is showing, unfortunately for her.

  41. 136
    codger

    I watched that clip last night on the Daily Show and it’s classic Stewart. He rips the media’s childish preoccupations to shreds.

  46. Yes KR – as I mentioned yesterday Obama’s silence re the Bosnia and other Clinton blunders is shown in stark contrast to Hillary’s shrill hypocrisy.

    I have an American colleague where I work. She is a young lawyer, probably mid 20’s, spending a couple of years with her husband working here in Oz. Last time we spoke politics back around Super Tuesday she was a strong Hillary supporter. Nothing would sway her.

    By yesterday she’d had enough. The lies and hypocrisy have beaten the support out of her. “I can’t stand what she’s doing to the Democratic Party” were her sad words as she told me she will be voting for Obama come November.

    How widespread this leaking of her support is, time will tell.

  47. That Stewart clip is hilarious

    “Y’know, I hear what you’re all saying, but doesn’t elite mean good? Is that something we’re not looking for in a President anymore? You know what candidates, come with me…I know elite is a ‘bad word’ in politics, and you wanna go bowling and throw back a few beers, but the job you’re appying for, if you get it and it goes well, they might carve your head into a mountain. If you don’t actually think you’re better than us, then what the f@ck are you doing?”

  48. 147
    Pancho

    That was my favourite line too, and I just tried to think of what they’ll do with George W Bush’s head! LOL

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