Pennsylvania minus one week

A merciful mid-campaign lull precluded the need for a “minus two weeks” thread, but things are well and truly picking up again now. Real Clear Politics’ Pennsylvania Democratic poll average has Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 47.4 per cent to 40.4 per cent, which is not as much as she would like. However, the most very recent poll from SurveyUSA puts it at 56-38 (UPDATE: Whoops, that’s not the most recent poll after all. There have been quite a few others since that have been around the RCP average). Statistical anomaly, or Obama’s elitist chickens coming home to roost? I report – you decide.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,655 comments on “Pennsylvania minus one week”

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  1. 1650

    That’s always been known, and is just the arcane numerology of the Democrat primary system.

    Clinton is trying to talk down expectations (her people were saying under 10% would be OK, you know, a ‘win’), but that’s only so she can stay in the race, not because it actually puts her any closer.

  2. Asked by CNN’s Wolf Blitzer whether Clinton had to win big to stay in the race, John Murtha, a Pennsylvania congressman who has backed the Clinton campaign, said: “Well, she has to. That’s all there is to it.”

  3. I’m looking at Hillary’s blog and comparing this with Obama blog – wow – there is such a big difference. Both have blog entries up about the Pen election day. The Hillary post was published at 09:59 and its now 11:05 and she has attracted 39 comments. Obama’s blog entry kicked off at 07:03 and has racked up 474 comments and there are another five or so blog entries pulling in around 200 other comments. Thing is that even PB can generate more traffic that that.

    I mean – that has to be worrying someone inside campaign HQ over in Dorothy land.

  4. Just did some quick arithmetic.

    Between 4.20 PM and 5:20 PM (60 min) – the PB comment count was 23.
    Between 09:59 AM and 11:05 AM (66 min) – the Clinton comment count is 39.
    Between 07:03 and 11:05 AM (242 mins) – the Obama count is 474.

    PB = 0.38 cpm
    HR = 0.59 cpm
    BO = 1.95 cpm

    Where ‘cpm’ is comments per minute.

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